Capitalogix

Merry Chrismakkuh

Today is Christmas ... and it is also the last night of Chanukah.  So, Merry Christmas and Happy Chanukah!  And Happy Festivus to anyone who doesn't celebrate either. 

For those that don't know, Chanukah is the Jewish festival of lights.  This is the holiday that involves lighting the Menorah (Chanukah candles), eating latkes (potato pancakes), exchanging gifts, playing spin the Dreidel (a gambling game), and enjoying a sense of family togetherness for eight days and nights.

That's a long time, right?!  Well, sometimes it seems even longer with my family. 

To help you stay in the right mood, here is a video of "The Chanukah Song," performed by comedian Adam Sandler on Saturday Night Live.  It became an instant classic (and he has since released a second, third, and fourth version.)

Here is the video.  And, if you're feeling left out - here's Adam Sandler's Christmas Song.

The cynic in me believes merchants invented the gift part of the holiday.

Regardless, the Capitalogix team has been festive, and the office has been filled with holiday cheer.  Here is a picture that some of the team took after our ugly sweater contest.

I hope you're having a wonderful celebration surrounded by people you love and food that would make your cardiologist feel safe buying a new Porche.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 16th, 2022

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Are Rats With Human Brain Cells Still Just Rats? (TechReview)
• What's Next If SpaceX Won't Fund Starlink in Ukraine? (NewScientist)
• 9 Astonishing Ways that Living Standards Have Improved Around the World. (BT)
• A Student Asked Her Cosmology Professor the Meaning of Life. Here Was His Response. (BigThink)
• 44% of the Top 100 Public Companies Use Blockchain Amid Growing Institutional Adoption. (FinBold)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• China's Semiconductor Industry 'Decapitated Overnight' — What 'Annihilation Looks Like'. (Benzinga)
• SPAC Sponsors Were Winners Even on Losers. (Wall Street Journal)
• Rent Going Up? One Company's Algorithm Could Be Why. (ProPublica)
• The World's Largest Academic Endowment Fund Lost Money for the First Time in Six Years. (Quartz)
• Volume of Options Traded on the S&P 500 Hits a Record High; Indications of a Market Bottom? (FinBold)

 

 

Ending the Year Strong After a Day of Atonement

We’re sprinting toward the end of the year.  Just under 100 days left. 

Stress, high expectations, and a narrow focus often result in hurt feelings.

Of course, I understand that a little conflict is normal (or even beneficial).  

Yet, last Wednesday was Yom Kippur (which means “Day of Atonement,” and which is one of the highest holy days in the Jewish religion).  The holiday and its rituals are designed to help you be more sensitive to your actions, impact, and intent than usual.

As a technology entrepreneur focused on amplified intelligence (which means making better decisions, taking smarter actions, and continually improving performance), I recognize that we’re not using technology to replace humans.  Instead, we’re automating activities that humans used to do – so that humans can focus on things more important and more in line with their unique abilities and tendencies.

On the other hand, one of the main reasons for automation is to avoid certain tendencies that are baked into human nature.  I say that because as much as the world has changed in the last several thousand years, human nature has remained mostly the same.  That’s apparent from the list of sins in the Yom Kippur Confessional (text available here).  Even though these were written thousands of years ago, the list catalogs the behaviors and challenges that many of us deal with daily.  It’s hard enough to change yourself, it’s unreasonable to expect to radically change others.  Instead, if you want to increase the likelihood of certain actions, it makes sense to rely on technologies that are simple, reputable, consistent, and scalable to make your best intentions and best practices more common.  This is why I say that amplified intelligence has an automatic advantage ... because it eliminates the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes that humans naturally bring to a process.

Back to the holiday, during Yom Kippur, one of the rituals is to read down the list of sins, apologize for the ones you committed, ask for forgiveness, and promise to do better next year.  Even if you have managed to stay on the right side of the Ten Commandments and haven’t killed or stolen … you have most likely been frivolous, stubborn, hurtful, dismissive, or judgmental (I know I have …).  

I recognize that, sometimes, some of those traits can be part of effective strategies.  And usually, people just brush off these smaller-scale sins with the excuse: “I was angry”; or “I’m only human”; or “There is no place for cry-babies in business.” Nevertheless, it’s important to remember that we should strive to be better and that even these smaller sins can harm the people around us.

To drive the point home further, here is the story of “The Nail in a Fence.” While you might have seen it before, it is worth reading again. 

 

Nail In The Fence:

There once was a little boy who had a bad temper. His Father gave him a bag of nails and told him that every time he lost his temper, he must hammer a nail into the back of the fence.

The first day the boy had driven 37 nails into the fence. Over the next few weeks, as he learned to control his anger, the number of nails hammered daily gradually dwindled down.

He discovered it was easier to hold his temper than to drive those nails into the fence.

Finally the day came when the boy didn't lose his temper at all. He told his father about it; and the father suggested that the boy now pull out one nail for each day that he was able to hold his temper.

The days passed and the young boy was finally able to tell his father that all the nails were gone.

The father took his son by the hand and led him to the fence. He said, "You have done well, my son, but look at the holes in the fence. The fence will never be the same. When you say things in anger, they leave a scar just like this one. You can put a knife in a man and draw it out. It won't matter how many times you say I'm sorry, the wound is still there."

A verbal wound is as bad as a physical one.

One of the themes of Yom Kippur is that you’re only ever one good deed from tipping the scale towards good for yourself and others.  As you recognize and repent for your sins, it’s also important to appreciate the good you did (and do) as well.  I like to think of good deeds as filling in the holes. 

There’s plenty of time left in the year to do good, accomplish what you set out to do, make a change, and end the year on a high note. 

There is plenty of time to make this your best year yet.  What can you do?  What will you do?

I hope you all experience growth in your mental state, your relationships, and your businesses.

Finding Ikigai In Increasingly Stressful Times

I just read that they sell more adult diapers than baby diapers in Japan.

Getting old is tough ... and it gets tougher the older you get.   As a result, finding your 'reasons for being' and joy in life become increasingly important. 

The past couple of years have been a period of massive upheaval for many.  Reasons for this include stress, change, pandemics, quarantine, new jobs, new goals ... or, at the other end of the spectrum, lack of change, lack of a job, or lack of purpose.

Most people know that life is much better than the alternative (and that life becomes even better when you learn to enjoy living and let go of what isn't serving you).  Consequently, it makes sense to understand and search for the things that bring you pleasure or fulfillment.

A Japanese concept called "Ikigai" may help better define your motivating force and the things that give you a sense of purpose or a reason for living.

Ikigai centers around finding purpose as you grow older.  Paradoxically, it makes sense to start the process as early as possible. 

Here is an infographic that lays out some "Reasons for Being."

via InformationIsBeautiful

Finding your "reason to be" and living with purpose are keys to making the most of your time.

The beauty of 2022 being a fresh start is that you can also change your approach and your vision.

The graphic highlights something interesting (yet almost counter-intuitive) ... When two areas intersect, it creates something positive (e.g., a passion or a mission).   However, where three areas intersect, it creates a pain point (for example, it could be what you're good at, you love doing it, the world needs it ... but it doesn't make you any money – so now you're struggling).

Worth examining and thinking about for a bit.

On a related note, this TEDx talks about the nine common diet and lifestyle habits that help people live past 100.

 

TED-ED via YouTube

And here is a link to Dan Sullivan's free e-book on his plan to live to 156. 

Live long and prosper!

A Few Notes from a Trip to Israel

My wife and I just got back from Israel.  We were there to see my son Zachary play Rugby for Team USA in an International Tournament.

 

 

I feel like I need a vacation after this trip.  There were so many things to do and see.

 

Israel is smaller than the smallest state in America ... Yet, consider its importance in the modern world (for example, by looking at the density of its holy sites, historical attractions, technological innovations, Nobel Prize winners, hostile borders, and military presence).

 

It was fascinating how so many religions consider this the Holy Land.  Here is a photo I took of the Wailing Wall and the Dome of the Rock in the Old City of Jerusalem.

 

 

It’s easy to feel closer to “something” while here.

 

Almost everything we saw in Israel is a testament to determination, ingenuity, and faith!

 

With that said, I started to think about how difficult it was to conceive of many of the things they built (considering how difficult it would be to execute or actually build them in the desert, without electricity, etc.). Many of the sites we visited took decades to build ... but have lasted for thousands of years.  Examples include the Fortress at Masada, the Wailing Wall, and the Port of Caesaria.  In my mind, I compare these moonshots to many of our current big, hairy, audacious goals (like reading and writing our DNA, autonomous artificial intelligence, or space exploration).

 

Technologies might change, but human nature has remained surprisingly consistent throughout time.

 

Onwards!

First Photos From the Webb Telescope

The Hubble Telescope was conceived of in the 1940s, but launched in 1990. It revolutionized our ability to see the complexities of the universe. 

Now, the Webb Telescope is taking it to the next level. 

via NASA

The picture above shows the "Cosmic Cliffs," which is actually the edge of a young Nebula called Carina. 

Below, is a picture of a cluster of galaxies called Stephan's Quintet. 

via NASA

Not only does this help us see far away systems that we've never seen before, but it also provides detail to the things we have seen.

First, bring order to chaos …. Then, wisdom comes from making finer distinctions.  With that in mind, I'm excited to see how this drives the future of science. 

Here's a brief video from Neil Degrasse Tyson on the new telescope. 

 

via NBC News

Are We Alone In The Universe?

Information Is Beautiful has an interactive data visualization to help you decide if we're alone in the Universe. 

As usual, for them, it is well done, fun, and informative. 

For the slightly geeky amongst us, the model lets you adjust the estimate by playing with two equations: the Drake equation and the Seager equation.

The Drake equation estimates how many detectable extraterrestrial civilizations exist in our galaxy and then in the Universe based on factors like habitable planets, change of life, and then intelligent life, and then the amount of time a civilization sends signals into space. 

The Seager equation is a modern take on the equation focusing on bio-signatures of life that we can currently detect - for example, the number of observable stars/planets, what % have life, and then % chance of detectable bio-signature gas. 

via Information Is Beautiful

For both equations, Information Is Beautiful lets you look at various default options – but also to play with your own choices to adjust the outcomes. 

For example, the skeptical default answer for Drake's equation shows 0.0000062 communicating civilizations in our galaxy (which is still 924,000 in the Universe).  The equivalent for Seager's equation shows 0.0009000 planets with detectable life in our "galactic neighborhood" and 135,000,000 planets in our Universe. 

Even with the "lowest possible" selection chosen, Drake's equation still shows 42 communicating civilizations (Douglas Adams, anyone?) in the Universe.

via Information Is Beautiful

One of the most interesting numbers (and potentially significant numbers for me) is the length of time a civilization sends signals into space.  Conservative numbers are 420 years, but optimistic numbers are 10,000+. 

If any aliens are reading this ... don't worry; I won't tell.  But, we will find out if you voted in the last election.

Where Are The Aliens?

This week, there was a U.S. congressional hearing on the existence of UFOs.  While there wasn't any proof of aliens, they did admit to phenomena that they couldn't explain with their current information.

There are many stories (or theories) about how we have encountered aliens before and just kept them secret.  For example, in 2020, a former senior Israeli military official proclaimed that Aliens from a Galactic Federation have contacted us - and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together. 

In contrast, I have found it more realistic and thought-provoking to consider theories about why we haven't seen aliens until now.

For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high probability estimates for their existence. 

Let's simplify the issues and arguments in the Fermi Paradox.  There are billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies).  Each of these stars is similar to our Sun.  Consequently, there must be some probability of some of them having Earth-like planets.  Further, it isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than us.  Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies - interstellar travel isn't absurd.  Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and the length of time we are talking about) ... it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb (who is a particle physicist) tackles that in his book and in this TED Talk.   

 

via TED

In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

1. Habitability and stability of their planet
2. Building blocks of life 
3. Technological advancement
4. Socialness/Communication technologies

But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables, including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, moons' effect on climate, etc. 

Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life - and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks. 

What do you think?

Here are some other links I liked on this topic.  There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

• 75 Reasons We Don't See Aliens 
• Wait But Why: The Fermi Paradox
• A New Theory on Why We Haven't Found Aliens Yet
• A List of Solutions to The Fermi Paradox
• Dissolving the Fermi Paradox, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University

To Infinity and Beyond!

Spring and Rebirth

For Jews, Friday was the first night of Passover, a family-centric holiday that recounts the biblical story of the Exodus of the ancient Israelites from Egypt into the Promised Land. For me, it's a reminder to appreciate what we have – and how we stand on the shoulders of those who came before us. 

For Christians, today is Easter - the holiday honoring Jesus's resurrection. 

The overlap can be seen in DaVinci's Last Supper, a Passover Seder, and Jesus's last meal before his Crucifixion.  

For Jews, a notable part of the ritual dinner is recounting each of the ten plagues inflicted upon Biblical Egypt and saying, "Never again."

Last year, I joked that maybe COVID-19 should be added to the list. 

And, just like the Jews making it through slavery, the plagues, and 40 years wandering through the wilderness and desert before entering the Promised Land ... We are finally approaching the promise of life post-COVID.

Of course, other global events remind us that while the world and our capabilities continue to improve and expand ... human nature stays maddeningly the same.

With the coming of spring, the return to normalcy, and the reminders from the stories of Exodus and Easter - it's a great time to do a mental and physical "spring cleaning". Mine your experiences for the things you want to keep doing (or continue not doing) as things go back to "normal".  

Hope you celebrated with family, food, and a reverence for all the blessings around you. 

Global Happiness Levels in 2022

Happiness is a complex concept comprised of conditions that highlight positive emotions over negative ones – bolstered by the support of comfort, freedom, wealth, and other things people aspire to experience. 

Regardless of how hard it is to describe (let alone quantify) ... humans strive for happiness.

Likewise, it is hard to imagine a well-balanced and objective "Happiness Report" because so much of the data required to compile it seems subjective and requires self-reporting. 

Nonetheless, the World Happiness Report takes an annual look at quantifiable factors (like health, wealth, GDP, and life expectancy) and more intangible factors (like social support, generosity, emotions, and perceptions of local government and businesses).  Click the image below to view the Report.

via visualcapitalist

In their 2021 report, there was a significant focus on the effect of COVID-19 on happiness levels and mental health. Much of that continued into the 2022 report. 

As you might expect, the pandemic caused a significant increase in negative emotions reported. Specifically, there were substantial increases in reports of worry and sadness across the ninety-five countries surveyed.  The decline in mental health was higher in groups prone to disenfranchisement or other particular challenges – e.g., women, young people, and poorer people. 

It is remarkable how resilient and stable the scores have been globally considering the amount of uncertainty, stress, and disruption households experienced this past year.

Ultimately, humans persevered in the face of economic insecurity, anxiety, and challenges to mental and physical health. 

This year, the average score improved slightly compared to 2021 - though worry and stress have continued to rise. 

There has been a decrease in overall happiness compared to pre-pandemic scores.  Yet, the relative balance demonstrated in the face of such adversity may point towards the existence of a hedonic treadmill - or a set-point of happiness.

Regardless of the circumstances, people can focus on what they choose, define what it means to them, and choose their actions.

I'm still surprised by what people can get used to ... and how some people find pockets of joy in even the hardest of times.  Conversely, other people use the same ability to feel profound unhappiness, even when they have seemingly everything. 

It's an oddly beautiful reminder that happiness comes from within.

Another bright spot, worth mentioning, has been the massive global upsurge in benevolence. People are supporting others, communities have stepped up, more money is being donated to charity, and more people are volunteering. 

Onwards!