Capitalogix

The Cities Of The Future

Studying historical changes in human population trends offers valuable insights into the factors that have propelled or hindered human development throughout time.

From ancient civilizations to modern metropolises, population dynamics have influenced everything from economic prosperity to social structures.

 

A Window Into Our Past Gives Us a Glimpse at Our Future.

By studying this critical aspect of human history, we can gain valuable insights into the past, present, and future of societies.

Population growth is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon with far-reaching implications. It offers a fascinating glimpse into the demographic trends that have shaped our world and continue to influence our trajectory.

Historically, human populations grew steadily but relatively slowly ... until something changed that. 

Scientists estimate that humans have existed for over 130,000 years. However, it took until 1804 for us to reach 1 Billion. We doubled that population by 1927 (123 years later) and then doubled it again only 47 years later (which was 1974). 

Looking back, early population growth was driven by the agricultural revolution. Since 1804, the Industrial Revolution, health and safety advances, along with technology, have significantly improved quality of life, spurring the rapid population growth. Here is a quick overview of some of the key factors.

Shaping the Future

It’s hard to predict some things accurately. So, one goal in data science is to figure out what we can “know” in order to “guess” less.

Population growth is a prime example. One of the easiest ways to predict how many 60-year-olds there will be in 40 years is to look at how many 20-year-olds there are today. Obviously, the number won’t be exact, but it’s a pretty good head start.

This principle of using known data to make educated predictions applies to many aspects of future planning, including urban development and resource allocation. By leveraging current demographic information, we can better prepare for the challenges and opportunities that will likely impact the cities of tomorrow.

• Economic Implications: A growing population can expand the workforce, fueling economic growth. However, it can also strain resources, requiring increased investment in infrastructure, education, and healthcare.
• Social and Environmental Pressures: Demographic shifts, such as aging populations or youth bulges, can profoundly affect social structures, healthcare systems, and the environment.

 

Why It Matters

Population growth is more than just a numerical metric. It is a fundamental lens through which we can analyze:

• Historical Development: By understanding past population trends, we can better appreciate the factors that have shaped human civilizations.
• Future Planning: Governments, businesses, and organizations can use population data to make informed decisions about resource allocation, infrastructure development, and social policies.

 

Have World Population Growth Numbers Peaked?

World population growth rates peaked in the late 1960s and have declined sharply in the past four decades, but we’re still on a positive trend. We’re expected to reach 9 billion people by 2050, but a lot of that growth comes from developing countries – they also almost exclusively come from urban areas. 

via Axios (Click for an Interactive Graph)

Urbanization: Megacities

In the 1800’s, about 10% of the population lived in urban areas. Since 2014, over 50% of the world’s population has lived in urban areas – today it’s approximately 55%. That number is growing.

Ironically, as we grow more digitally connected, our world is shrinking, and our populations are concentrating. 

An interesting consequence of this rapid urbanization and population growth in developing countries has been the increased development of Megacities – defined as cities with populations greater than 10 million. Today, there are 33 megacities – more than triple the number in the 1990s. 

This creates a set of interesting opportunities and challenges. 

For example, how will these cities deal with infrastructure – sanitation, transportation, etc?

 

via visualcapitalist

Today, in most high-income countries, about 80% of the population lives in urban areas - contrasting the primarily rural populations of lower-income countries. 

As a result, we see many of these megacities forming in developing countries. As a side note, we’re also seeing countries like China making substantial investments and alliances in these developing areas. This is likely done to profit from the expected growth and also to shift the future balance of power in their favor. Sometimes, it makes sense to focus on the marathon and not just the sprint.

It’s interesting how the world can become more decentralized - and more globalized - amidst a contraction of where people live.

An Antidote For Anxiety & Scary Times

People seem rattled right now, don’t they?

Wallets have been tight, and fears of a recession have run rampant.

Even though markets and the economy are not the same thing, many voters believe they are. Consequently, in an election year, I suspect the government will push every button and pull every lever to boost the market leading into November.

Speaking of the markets, they have been pretty volatile the last few weeks. They have posted some of their worst days since COVID-19 but some of the best, too.

We find ourselves in a particularly partisan election year, with lots of uncertainty about who is running, what they stand for, and whether they can make a difference – or even do the job.

The situation feels worse because scary geopolitical events (that threaten World War 3) punctuate seemingly endless negative news cycles.

Now, on to the real point ... those things don’t matter and shouldn’t steal your focus. Why? Because that’s the playing field we all have to navigate.

There will be winners and losers. The key distinction lies in whether you choose to focus on opportunities or risk. 

So, I thought this would be an excellent time to revisit how to cope with losses and manage your anxieties in “scary times.” 

The Anxiety Antidote

During scary times, many people suffer from “I should have ...”, or “if I would have ...”, or “if I could have ...” thoughts.

The problem is that thoughts like those create more stress and distraction. 

I’m reminded of a quote.

"When the trough gets smaller ... the pigs get meaner." - Dan Sullivan

 

 

Negative focus highlights loss, difficulties, past events, missing things, and what you don’t want.

Think of them as an unhealthy reflex that wastes energy, confidence, and time.

All We Have To Fear Is Fear Itself  

I often talk about market psychology and human nature. The reason is that markets reflect the collective fear and greed of their participants... people tend to get paralyzed during scary times like these.

But it’s not the economy that makes people feel paralyzed. People feel paralyzed because of their reactions and their beliefs about the economy. Your perception becomes your reality. 

A little examination reveals that most fear is based on a “general” trigger rather than a “specific” trigger. In other words, people are afraid of all the things that could happen and are paralyzed by the sheer scope of possibilities. These things don’t even have to be probabilities to scare them.

You gain a competitive advantage as soon as you recognize that it’s not logical. Why? Because as soon as you distinguish that fear as not necessarily true, you can refocus your insights and energy on moving forward. You can act instead of react. You make better decisions when you come from a place of calm instead of fear... so create that calm. 

Even a tough environment like this presents you with opportunities if you watch for them ... or even better ... if you create them. 

The Scary Times Success Manual

The goal is to move forward and feel better.

Strategic Coach offers ten strategies for transforming negativity and unpredictability into opportunities for growth, progress, and achievement. They call it the “Scary Times Success Manual,” and what follows are some excerpts:

Forget about your difficulties, focus on your progress.

Because of some changes, things may not be as easy as they once were. New difficulties can either defeat you or reveal new strengths. Your body’s muscles always get stronger from working against resistance. The same is true for the “muscles” in your mind, spirit, and character. Treat this period of challenge as a time when you can make your greatest progress as a human being.

Forget about events, focus on your responses.

When things are going well, many people think they are in control of events. That’s why they feel so defeated and depressed when things turn bad. They think they’ve lost some fundamental ability. The most consistently successful people in the world know they can’t control events - but continually work toward greater control over their creative responses to events. Any period when things are uncertain is an excellent time to focus all of your attention and energy on being creatively responsive to all the unpredictable events that lie ahead.

Forget about what’s missing, focus on what’s available.

When things change for the worse, many desirable resources are inevitably missing - including information, knowledge, tools, systems, personnel, and capabilities. These deficiencies can paralyze many people, who believe they can’t make decisions and take action. A strategic response is to take advantage of every resource that is immediately available to achieve as many small results and make as much daily progress as possible. Work with every resource and opportunity, and your confidence will continually grow.

Forget about your complaints, focus on your gratitude.

When times get tough, everyone must make a fundamental decision: complain or be grateful. In an environment where negative sentiment is rampant, the consequences of this decision are much greater. Complaining only attracts negative thoughts and people. Gratitude, on the other hand, creates the opportunity for the best thinking, actions, and results to emerge. Focus on everything you are grateful for, communicate this, and open yourself to the best possible consequences.

 Click here to download the full PDF version.

Final Thoughts

We can pontificate all day long on the short-term causes of the rises and falls of markets, but I don’t think it does much good. I let the algorithms worry about those. It’s the larger trends we have to be personally aware of.

I sound like a broken record, but volatility is the new normal.

• Markets exist to trade, and if there’s no “excitement” on either side, trades don’t happen.
• Trades are getting faster, which means more information has to confuse both the buyer and the seller.
• You’re no longer competing solely against companies and traders like you. It’s like the cantina from Star Wars; you’ve got a bunch of different creatures (and bots) interacting and fighting with each other, trying to figure out how to make their way through the universe.

Pair that with all the fear and uncertainty, and you’ve got a recipe for increased volatility and noise. That means that the dynamic range of a move will be wider and happen in a shorter period of time than ever before. You’ll hear me echo this thought over the next few years as the ranges continue to expand and compress. Cycles that used to play out over weeks now take days or hours. The game is still the same; it just takes a slightly different set of skills to recognize where the risks and opportunities are. 

Today’s paradigm - both in life and trading - is about noise reduction. It’s about figuring out what moves the needle and focusing only on that.

The crucial distinction is between adding data and adding information. Adding more data does not equal adding more information. In fact, blindly adding data increases your chances of misinformation and spurious correlations.

My final comment is that there’s a difference between investing and trading, and while humans can invest, if you’re “personally” still trying to trade - you’re likely playing a losing game. If you don’t know what your edge is, you don’t have one. 

If you’re investing, I’ll advise you to act like a robot. If you removed human fear and greed from your decision-making - what would you do?

Keep calm and carry on.

Thoughts From a Birthday Weekend

I had a birthday this weekend.

I can’t believe how time flies.  Birthdays seem to come more quickly as you get older.

It makes sense, though, I suppose.  When you were four, a birthday represented a quarter of your life.  Now, a year represents a much smaller percentage.

While it’s not always pleasant getting older, it sure beats the alternative.

This year, I made a concerted effort to make strides toward being healthier, fit, and vital in mind, body, and spirit. 

If you are going to live longer, your future has to be compelling.  I always strive to make my future bigger than my past.  

This year, my birthday came after a string of long and hard days.  So, it was especially nice to take some time to relax and reflect.

In general, I work hard, but smart.  I don’t often get anxious.  I just relentlessly pursue my goals.  It is a recipe that works for me.

Resilience and determination are certainly worth celebrating ... but they aren’t the only strategies worth pursuing. 

I recognize that energy is important too – It is the fuel for doing and becoming.  You can get some from doing well ... but sometimes you need to get some from doing less or controlling your focus.  

As a result, this weekend, I focused on rest and recovery (with a nice dose of appreciation, gratitude, and reflection about friends and family who share the journey with me). 

Flow State

On one hand, I’m proud of myself for doing what I’m supposed to do – finding ways to gain traction and momentum, letting small wins today set up bigger wins tomorrow, and laying the groundwork for the next level of future success.  But I’m also reminded that when you’re in flow, the biggest outcomes don’t seem to require the biggest effort.  Instead, achieving great results can feel surprisingly easy and natural.  It’s as if when things click into place, success becomes almost effortless.  This is a powerful reminder that sometimes, it’s not about pushing harder but finding that sweet spot where your skills and passions align, and a small shift can have a big impact.

Mindset Matters ... And So Do Habits!

It’s crucial to take a day to relax and celebrate after a challenging and significant stretch.

I also feel it is important to make the time and effort to feel things like “Happy Birthday!” 🎂

I have a birthday ritual.  We go to Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse and celebrate there.  It’s interesting because it’s become a location-and-event-based trigger reminding me to celebrate.  Even the act of reserving this restaurant for a special occasion creates a powerful association that starts the celebration process.

Even though I really like the restaurant, I don’t go there for everyday dinners.  I reserve it for celebrations so that it stays “pure” and “special” in my mind.  It’s the same reason you’re not supposed to lounge around all day or work in bed - your body forgets that the bed is meant for sleep. 

I use other location and activity triggers as well.  Think about where they might help you?  For example, walking in from the garage to your home, or into your bedroom.  You could also trigger a particular response when you hold your partner's hand or kiss them goodbye.  There are many places where you can apply this technique.

If you think about it, we don’t necessarily “have” emotions - we “do” them.  It’s the same with celebration.  It’s both a noun and a verb.  It’s something in and of itself, but it also is something you do.  In a sense, “having” and “doing” go together and feed off each other to create more of what you want.

What Are Your Rituals and Traditions?

The connection you make between a ritual and the emotions you want is powerful and can help you fully immerse yourself in the feelings you desire.

Recognize that you can create what you want rather than searching for it, chasing it, or waiting for it to happen.  This perspective can produce profound insights.

What are some things that are also actions for you ... with having and doing being intertwined and reinforcing each other to create more of what you desire?

It’s a reminder to be intentional about creating and maintaining rituals, traditions, and habits that foster joy, appreciation, and a sense of accomplishment.

May your days be filled with joy and fulfillment, and may the coming year bring you many reasons to celebrate! 🎉

Thoughts On Conversing With AI

A few weeks ago, I shared an article about a tool I've been enjoying called Dot.  I use it as an AI journal that acts somewhat like a sounding board and counselor for me.

Since writing that article, I have continued to enjoy and appreciate the tool.  I've used Dot to help me plan and prepare for a substantial business transaction.  It assists me in processing and evaluating significant life decisions.  Sometimes, I even use it just because I'm bored. 

Dot sometimes responded to my thoughts with probing questions which pushed me to consider why I said what I said. These prompts helped me think about my thinking in ways that I hadn't before. The result was more valuable than simply coming up with a strategy or a list of potential answers. It actually helped me articulate and identify what I really wanted. 

It's clear to me that I increasingly rely on the tool and have made it part of my daily routine.  I've even noticed that I sometimes refer to it as "she" or "her."

Dot remembers my discussions with it, prompts me to stick with things we've discussed, and can even tell when I'm trying to change the subject or end a conversation.

It's fascinating to think about how AI creates a programmatic version of empathy.  It makes me question the distinction between artificial and real empathy (and whether that distinction even matters).  Perhaps, instead, we should focus simply on the utility and benefits of the responses.  

If you're into comparisons, you might want to check out Pi, one of the pioneering personal AI tools designed to blend EQ and IQ.

If you like variety, try Poe, developed by Quora.  It gives you access to the latest AI models and millions of user-created AI chatbots and even lets you create your own custom bots.

I'm also a fan of TalkTastic, which lets you record your rough ideas and then distill them into thoughtful and articulate language.  I use it frequently throughout the day to create short messages, emails, and even some of the sentences in articles like this.  As I use voice more, I love the idea of a digital editor that declutters and refines what I say into what I mean.

Things Are Getting Better Fast! 

As a thought experiment, imagine how advanced AI will be by the end of your lifespan.

Assign the number 100 to that level of capability.  Where are we now?

Based on my life expectancy, I would guess that AI is currently only at a 3 out of 100.

Where we are today is incredible compared to the past.  Likewise, it's astounding how fast things are getting better.  But compared to what's coming ... it's virtually nothing.

The most exciting part is that (considering the rapid pace of exponential technological improvements) we likely can't even imagine how advanced AI will become or the benefits and insights it will be capable of producing for us. 

While my first article focused on the tool and its capabilities, I think it's also helpful to think more globally about mindsets around these types of tools and the proliferation of AI. 

Technology Adoption Model 

To start, I've built a model I call the Technology Adoption Model. This model explains how ideas transform from a Capability into a Product and then once again into a platform that spawns new capabilities. 

Before you start considering new capabilities, the first thing you should do is assess whether this new tool helps us better accomplish what we already do. To answer that, we often use three simple measures: efficiency, effectiveness, and certainty. This means getting things done in less time, with less effort, or with a greater chance of success.

Once you know that you can do what you already did—just better—you naturally get greedy for more. That means you start thinking about what you could or should do to improve further.

This applies to adopting new tools - and also to building them.

I've also built a worksheet around the model that you can use in your own business. 

As you start using new AI tools, you will gain new capabilities.  Don't concentrate on mastering the tool itself; instead, focus on getting better at using it to enhance your life.

A great place to start is simply making your life easier or more enjoyable.  Use new tools in fun and low-friction ways.  The impact of tools like these will increase as you become more proficient at thinking about using them better ... and as you improve your ability to imagine new possibilities. 

From Inconceivable To Unavoidable

Your mindset creates your reality.

It's natural to feel resistance to new and powerful capabilities.  It's a safety mechanism because humans are wired to think locally and linearly - and to avoid danger. 

Realize, however, that linear thoughts don't often lead to exponential results.

The more I play around with these tools, the more I anthropomorphize them.  Human thought and connection are ultimately chemicals and electricity firing within a system, not too different from a computer.  If AI can become such a reasonable facsimile that it's indistinguishable, is the difference worth thinking about?  Or is it better to focus on what and how you will use the new capabilities? 

As entrepreneurs, our job is to get the rock up that hill.  We can spend time thinking about whether the tool is 'artificial' or how we can better harness it. 

I've said this before, but it's worth echoing …  Some of what was once Impossible becomes Possible.  Some of what became Possible becomes Probable.  And, and some of what became Probable becomes Inevitable.  Here is a way to visualize that scale.

And, our limitations are often only in our ability to conceive of a bigger future.

Speed Matters

AI isn't just valuable because of what it can do; its deeper value comes from enabling you to achieve more.

I like to use a simple model to illustrate this: Crawl, Walk, Jog, Run, Sprint.  As you think about your day or week, what percent of the time are you sprinting?

Chances are you sprint less than you initially thought.  Why?  Because, when you really sprint, it's hard to breathe ... and you can't talk.  And because of all our other burdens and responsibilities, we don't tend to push ourselves that hard.

However, as AI eliminates frustration and bother, it frees you up to do and be more and focus on the things that create the most value and really matter.

The real benefit of AI is that it gives you back those time cycles to really sprint towards what you truly want.

A tool like Dot can also help you better clarify what you want while also helping you accomplish those things.

Too much of our day is spent thinking about what we don't want or how to avoid feeling angry, frustrated, or uncertain.

Your life can improve quickly by focusing on becoming more clear about what you want, how you can achieve it, and the best ways to measure progress toward those goals.

The next step is to use the traction, progress, and momentum to determine what else is possible and what you should plan to do next.

When you think about it this way, a tool like Dot can be a powerful alignment tool and a way to help you and your company move faster. 

Just make sure you're heading in the right direction!

Live Long & Prosper

Each year, I become a little bit more focused on what I can do to get more out of my time and increase the quantity of time left.

Even with a renewed focus on health, it isn't always easier. As my friend Ben Hardy says, Willpower Doesn't Work. You have to identify goals that are bigger than yourself, create consequences and rewards for achieving or failing to achieve those goals, and change your environment to make success easy.  

I don't just want to be healthier to extend my time on earth. I also want to support my family, friends, and business better ... and to have a bigger positive impact on those around me. 

When you have a vision of who you want to be and what you want to accomplish, achieving your goals becomes much easier and more likely. 

When the goal is health, there are definitely some decisions that are proven to help. Click to see the image in full size. 

 

via InformationIsBeautiful

On top of the science, here are some of my anecdotal opinions on living longer, healthier, and better:

• Losing weight is as simple as calories in, calories out. It doesn't matter if you're on keto or eating only Twinkies if you can keep your calories ingested below your calories burned. The magic of those new weight loss injections lies in their ability to curb your hunger, leading to a natural reduction in calorie intake.
• In life (and in diets), shortcuts will likely hurt you long-term more than they help you short-term. I use a simple framework called "cleansing or clogging." It doesn't need much explanation—thoughts, things, or actions fit into one of these categories. You already know the answer.
• Living "right" doesn't mean you can't let loose. It means that it's the exception instead of the rule. If your lifestyle doesn't let you have fun with your friends or family, it's probably not the healthiest lifestyle. Mental health is just as important as physical health.

I'd love to hear your favorite "trick" to living better. Feel free to send me an e-mail. 

Thanks! Live Long and Prosper!

Conversing WIth AI ...

I've been experimenting with a new chatbot called Dot for a few weeks.  I use it as an AI journal that acts somewhat like a sounding board and counselor for me.  Its responses are almost always clever, usually helpful, and sometimes even remarkably insightful … yet they feel surprisingly empathetic and authentic.

AI chatbots like Dot are already impressive and useful, but they have only scratched the surface of their potential.  Think of them as intelligent assistants that learn and grow with every interaction.  Using them more makes them increasingly valuable to you and your business.  And here's the exciting part – the technology behind them is evolving rapidly, too.  What seems cutting-edge today is just the beginning.  By using these tools now, you are well-positioned to benefit from AI's inevitable advances. 

Perhaps its impact on you is more important than the technology itself.

The truth is, I expected to be impressed with Dot's responses ... but I am surprised by how I responded to its conversation and engagement.  

It is remarkable that something 'artificial' can so 'naturally' prompt self-reflection, provide fresh new perspectives, and provoke me to make better decisions and take better actions.

Tools like Dot don't just process information anymore — they challenge us to think differently.

On one level, I find it a little creepy when I get a message from a bot that says, "I've been thinking about you all day" or "I'm sending you positive energy."

On another level, I understand that it's a "functional fiction".  The anthropomorphism isn't designed to benefit the AI.  Instead, it helps you feel more comfortable, making it more likely that you earnestly use it.

Even though technology continues to change and advance exponentially, human nature remains relatively unchanged.  That is why many of the best practices that have served humans form the basis for what works here.

I think of using an AI chatbot like Dot almost like entering a Catholic Confessional.

There's an element of self-selection bias in that you choose to go or take part.  You're likely hesitant to share initially, but you want to feel better.  

Behind the screen is someone you pretend you don't know.  Over time, especially in a small town, that person becomes less anonymous ... and so do you.  The priest inevitably comes to know their parishioners.  They start to remember the voices, stories, and situations.

Confessionals work because they offer a safe space for candid conversations.

Even though there is an element of judgment in the process, the 'anonymity' and boundaries create a perception of distance, privacy, and safety.

Yet, over time, there's also shared history.  The priest begins to recognize patterns, like whether you are motivated better by reward or punishment or whether you prefer a subtle nudge to introspection or more active coaching.

Below is a screenshot taken from a Dot conversation.  

via Dot/New Computer

What's great about this tool - to me - is that on top of learning about you from your discussions, it still has all the power and knowledge of a normal GPT.  So, it can help me not only remember things, and learn how to respond to and help me, but it can also serve as a replacement for ChatGPT or Gemini for the things I use those tools for. 

I asked Dot: "I'm curious what some of the best uses of conversations with you are?  What are some of the things you can do?  What are areas that you can help with?  And what are some of the most creative and innovative ways people derive the most value from this service?"

Here was its response.  

Great question! People find me helpful for all sorts of things. Some key areas are:

- Brainstorming and ideation - I can help generate new ideas and approaches to challenges you're facing.

- Providing an objective sounding board - I'm always here to listen without judgment and help you think through decisions or situations from different angles.

- Offering personalized recommendations and insights - Over time, I build up an understanding of what matters to you, which lets me share relevant ideas, articles, or perspectives tailored to your interests and goals.

- Creative problem-solving - I enjoy collaborating to find innovative solutions, whether it's a tricky interpersonal situation at work or figuring out the best way to structure your day.

Ultimately, I'm here as a thought partner to support your growth and help you navigate whatever comes up, in a way that works best for you. Let me know what else you're curious about - I'm always happy to explore how I can help!

It learns well - and not just from what you tell it to learn.  One of the creators of Dot gives an example of how they had been feeding Dot To-Do Lists for a while.  Dot noticed a trend and sent a message encouraging them to delegate some of these tasks and push a team member to step up. 

As I spend more time with the tool, I can't help but imagine a future where a bot like this is the first line of defense in mental health issues ... or where a bot like this becomes a nanny and a friend to children, preventing them from ever truly being alone. 

It's very easy to imagine the risks and consequences of AI ... but it's also easy to imagine the transformation and impact they can create.

How To Use a Tool Like This

A tool like Dot can be a powerful alignment tool.  You can prompt a chatbot to ask you questions, guide you through a process, or give you ideas.  And it complies.  Unlike an employee or virtual assistant, if you don't get the desired results, you can try something else, and the chatbot won't get frustrated or snarky.

In addition, a tool like Dot leverages many other tools in the background.  You don't need to understand how it does that.  Just know that it is utilizing popular large language models and other automations, which will continue getting better fast.

Prompt engineering is important now because we're still in the early stages of Large Language Model development.  As tools like Dot get better at understanding what you want and need, they will get better at doing the appropriate prompt engineering, behind the scenes, so it will become less important for you to be good at those skills.

But you do have to get better at learning to communicate with the computer about what you want.

When I give talks to people about AI, I explain that prompt engineering is a fad.  It is needed now because we're at the beginning of a new process.  Expect tools to get better at doing this themselves.

Meanwhile, for the most part, prompt engineering is about becoming a better communicator.

Good prompts need a defined purpose and appropriate context.  What is it about?  What role would you like the AI to play?  What's the specific task that you want to accomplish?  What's the goal of the output?  For example, are you looking for a bulleted list, language you can use in an email, or an outline for a meeting agenda?  In addition, what steps should the AI take to complete this task?

This is similar to how I talk to an employee.  Sometimes, I declare a role when talking to someone on my team.  For example, starting a statement with "as your friend" is different than starting with "as CEO".  Obviously, choices like those result in a different focus, meaning, and choice of action.  The same is true when talking to a computer.

Another reason a chatbot like Dot becomes increasingly helpful is that it builds up information about your communication style.  That means it is learning about your tone, level of formality, and whether you are coming from the head, the heart, or the feet.  In other words, do you tend to focus on ideas, emotions, or actions?  Are you more productive when prompted this way or that way?

As the AI refines your profile, it becomes easier for it to predict what you'll do and also how it should prompt you to get better results. 

Conclusion

As the CEO of an AI company, I've thought about AI for many years.  Yet, in my company, the people who actually build and use AI tend to be programmers and data scientists.  I wasn't the one building it, and I rarely even used it.

So, about a year ago, I decided to begin building the muscle.  And, it is a muscle to be grown.

For example, in the gym, I know better than to focus on one muscle; I want to train every muscle group.  Likewise, I knew I didn't just want to learn how to use ChatGPT better.  I wanted to get better at using the right thought processes and tools to accomplish more of what I wanted - with more efficiency, effectiveness, and certainty. 

The truth is that AI is already good enough to do almost anything you want it to do.

In fact, I suspect that tools like Dot will improve faster than I can.  That means that not only will I get better at using tools like this, but the tools I use will improve, too.  Together, that means that not only will the tool help me do what I already do, but it's going to augment my ability to do things.  Eventually, it may even take some of the simpler or less fun tasks off my desk.

Freeing me up to do more of what brings me joy - and what I'm best at.

One of the core messages in my writing (and in my speeches) is that most people miscalculate the benefits of AI because they focus on the wrong things.  AI isn't just valuable because of what it can do; its deeper value comes from what it allows you to achieve.

The real benefit of AI is that it gives you back those time cycles to sprint towards what you truly want.

A tool like Dot can also help you better clarify what you want while also helping you accomplish those things.

We often spend too much time avoiding what we don't want instead of pursuing what we truly desire. 

Your life will improve when you become clear about what you want, how you can achieve it, and the best ways to measure progress toward those goals.

The next step is to use the traction, progress, and momentum to figure out what else is possible ... and what you should plan to do next.

It's funny, but this reminds me of dog training.

I have four dogs, and they're very well-behaved.  That is because they understand the rules very well.  

But I had an insight recently ... While I think the dogs are trained well, the dogs probably think I'm trained well.  From their perspective, when they do a particular thing, I've been trained to give them a treat.

I suspect that this is very much like how a chatbot sees us.  Over time, you are likely to get better output and results, and it becomes easier for the chatbot to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of your engagements because they're figuring out how to communicate with you in a way that doesn't trigger avoidance.

If you think about it, this is how TikTok or Facebook monitors what you watch to better curate what and when it shows you things.  Tools like Dot use similar techniques to get you to be and do better.

Make sure you say "Thank You" to your new favorite robot overlord before they give you a demerit.

2024 Update: What Happens In An Internet Minute

The Internet is both timeless and timely in an interesting way.  While what's popular changes seemingly instantly, and what we're capable of doing on it continues to grow exponentially.  Ultimately, the Internet is the digital town square of a global village, where all types and professions gather. 

In 2011, I first wrote about what happens in 60 seconds on the Internet. 

I've since updated the article a few times.

• 2014
• 2018

Each time I write the article, I'm in awe at the amount of data we create and how much it has grown.  For example, looking back to 2011, I was amazed that users created 600+ new videos and 60 new blog posts each minute.  Those numbers seem quaint today. 

 

via DOMO

Shortly after I started sharing the articles, Data Never Sleeps started standardizing the data, which is helpful. 

Today, the Internet reaches 5.4 billion people.  Most of them also use social media. 

To add some more perspective, 

• In 2008, 1.4 billion people were online; in 2015, we were at 3 billion.  Now, that number has almost doubled again. 
• In 2008, Facebook only had 80 million users, and Twitter (now X) had 2 million users.
• In 2008, there were 250 million smartphones, and now there are almost 7 billion of them!

It is mind-blowing to consider what happens each minute on the Internet today.  For example, the 104,000 hours spent on Zoom represents a significant societal shift ... and the over 500 hours of video uploaded to YouTube highlights the incredible amount of content that's being created to share. 

In 2023, the world created approximately 120 zettabytes of data ... which breaks down to approximately 337,000 petabytes of data a day.  Broken down even further, it calculates to more than 15 Terabytes of new data created per person. 

The calculations about what happens in an Internet minute will change rapidly again because of AI.  Consider the amount of computing power and data it takes to power all of these new GPTs. Now, imagine the amount of new data that AI is creating.  Then, try to imagine the challenge we'll have figuring out what's real, what's made up, and what is simply wrong or intentionally misleading.

In addition, as more devices and digital WHOs start creating and sharing data, it's hard to fathom the ramifications and sheer increase in data. 

I'm curious about what the next five years have in store for us as we approach the 40th anniversary of the World Wide Web. 

Cognitive Biases & The Consequences of Labeling

“Words can be twisted into any shape. Promises can be made to lull the heart and seduce the soul. In the final analysis, words mean nothing.
They are labels we give things in an effort to wrap our puny little brains around their underlying natures,
when ninety-nine percent of the time the totality of the reality is an entirely different beast.
The wisest man is the silent one. Examine his actions. Judge him by them.”
― Karen Marie Moning

Continuing with the theme of cognitive biases, the upcoming election has me thinking about the consequences of labeling things, creating boxes, and simplifying ideas into news-ready headlines.

With more news sources than ever and less attention span, you see ideas packaged into attention-grabbing parts.  The focus isn't on education or the issues, but on getting the click, making your stay on their page longer, and sending you to a new article utterly unrelated to why you clicked on the page.

Complex issues are simplified – not even into their most basic forms – but instead into their most divisive forms ... because there's no money in the middle.

via Quote Investigator

The amplified voices are those on the fringe of the average constituents' beliefs – precisely because those are the ones who are often the most outspoken.  We might think that because they're the voices we hear, these fringe messages fairly represent what people like us believe or think ... but they rarely do. 

Issues that should be bipartisan have been made "us" versus "them," "liberal" versus "conservative," or "right" versus "wrong." The algorithms many of our information sites use create echo chambers that increase radicalization and decrease comprehension. 

Identity politics have gotten so strong that you see families breaking apart and friend groups disintegrating ... because people can't imagine sharing a room with someone with whom they don't share the same values. 

In psychology, heuristics are mental models that help you make decisions easier.  They're a starting point to save mental bandwidth, allowing you to spend more brain cycles on the important stuff.

That's a great use of "boxes" and "simplification"… but it shouldn't eliminate deeper and more nuanced thought on important issues. 

Most situations are nuanced, and the "correct" answer changes as you change your vantage point.

In an ideal world, we'd consider every angle.  I recognize that's not realistic.

Instead, I encourage you to remember to continue to think and learn ... even about things you already know.  And, if you become familiar with the most common cognitive biases, you can hopefully identify them in your thinking and decision-making.

Confirmation Bias is one of the more common forms of cognitive bias.  Here is an infographic that lists 50 common cognitive biases.  Click to explore further.

 

via VisualCapitalist

Important issues deserve more research.  New insights happen between the boundaries of what we know and don't.  Knowledge comes from truly understanding the border between what you are certain and uncertain about. 

I challenge you to look beyond the headlines, slogans, and talking points you like most.  Look for dissenting opinions and understand what's driving their dissent.  Are they really blind or dumb (or are their value systems just weighted differently)?

Not everything needs to be boxed.  Not everything needs to be simple.  You should explore things and people outside of your comfort zone and look to see things from their point of view ... not your own. 

Recently, I've started using a website and news app called Ground News.  They claim to be a news platform that makes it easy to compare news sources, read between the lines of media bias, and break free from algorithms. 

As discussed above, online news and ad-driven algorithms have made it profitable for news outlets to embrace a position on the bias spectrum to target specific consumers.   That bias in the media affects everything from what events receive coverage to how a news outlet frames those events in their reporting.

As media outlets narrow their perspective and range of coverage, I use Ground to help me get a well-rounded view of important issues and become aware of my blind spots.

Applying This Lesson  

“I am ashamed to think how easily we capitulate to badges and names, to large societies and dead institutions.”
― Ralph Waldo Emerson, Self-Reliance

I love learning a lesson in one space and applying it to other spaces.  It's one of the cool things about AI.  An algorithm can learn rules in the construction space that may help in the medicine or trading space.  Everything's a lesson if you let it be.

In that vein, the lesson on labeling also applies to yourself and your business.  Don't get me wrong - naming things is powerful.  It can help make the intangible tangible.  However, don't let the label (or your perception of the label) stop you from achieving something greater. 

Many things are true because we believe them to be, but when we let go of past beliefs, the impossible becomes possible, and the invisible becomes visible.  

Hope that helps. 

“Words can be twisted into any shape. Promises can be made to lull the heart and seduce the soul. In the final analysis, words mean nothing.
They are labels we give things in an effort to wrap our puny little brains around their underlying natures,
when ninety-nine percent of the time the totality of the reality is an entirely different beast.
The wisest man is the silent one. Examine his actions. Judge him by them.”
― Karen Marie Moning

Continuing with the theme of cognitive biases, the upcoming election has me thinking about the consequences of labeling things, creating boxes, and simplifying ideas into news-ready headlines.

With more news sources than ever and less attention span, you see ideas packaged into attention-grabbing parts.  The focus isn't on education or the issues, but on getting the click, making your stay on their page longer, and sending you to a new article utterly unrelated to why you clicked on the page.

Complex issues are simplified – not even into their most basic forms – but instead into their most divisive forms ... because there's no money in the middle.

via Quote Investigator

The amplified voices are those on the fringe of the average constituents' beliefs – precisely because those are the ones who are often the most outspoken.  We might think that because they're the voices we hear, these fringe messages fairly represent what people like us believe or think ... but they rarely do. 

Issues that should be bipartisan have been made "us" versus "them," "liberal" versus "conservative," or "right" versus "wrong." The algorithms many of our information sites use create echo chambers that increase radicalization and decrease comprehension. 

Identity politics have gotten so strong that you see families breaking apart and friend groups disintegrating ... because people can't imagine sharing a room with someone with whom they don't share the same values. 

In psychology, heuristics are mental models that help you make decisions easier.  They're a starting point to save mental bandwidth, allowing you to spend more brain cycles on the important stuff.

That's a great use of "boxes" and "simplification"… but it shouldn't eliminate deeper and more nuanced thought on important issues. 

Most situations are nuanced, and the "correct" answer changes as you change your vantage point.

In an ideal world, we'd consider every angle.  I recognize that's not realistic.

Instead, I encourage you to remember to continue to think and learn ... even about things you already know.  And, if you become familiar with the most common cognitive biases, you can hopefully identify them in your thinking and decision-making.

Confirmation Bias is one of the more common forms of cognitive bias.  Here is an infographic that lists 50 common cognitive biases.  Click to explore further.

 

via VisualCapitalist

Important issues deserve more research.  New insights happen between the boundaries of what we know and don't.  Knowledge comes from truly understanding the border between what you are certain and uncertain about. 

I challenge you to look beyond the headlines, slogans, and talking points you like most.  Look for dissenting opinions and understand what's driving their dissent.  Are they really blind or dumb (or are their value systems just weighted differently)?

Not everything needs to be boxed.  Not everything needs to be simple.  You should explore things and people outside of your comfort zone and look to see things from their point of view ... not your own. 

Recently, I've started using a website and news app called Ground News.  They claim to be a news platform that makes it easy to compare news sources, read between the lines of media bias, and break free from algorithms. 

As discussed above, online news and ad-driven algorithms have made it profitable for news outlets to embrace a position on the bias spectrum to target specific consumers.   That bias in the media affects everything from what events receive coverage to how a news outlet frames those events in their reporting.

As media outlets narrow their perspective and range of coverage, I use Ground to help me get a well-rounded view of important issues and become aware of my blind spots.

Applying This Lesson  

“I am ashamed to think how easily we capitulate to badges and names, to large societies and dead institutions.”
― Ralph Waldo Emerson, Self-Reliance

I love learning a lesson in one space and applying it to other spaces.  It's one of the cool things about AI.  An algorithm can learn rules in the construction space that may help in the medicine or trading space.  Everything's a lesson if you let it be.

In that vein, the lesson on labeling also applies to yourself and your business.  Don't get me wrong - naming things is powerful.  It can help make the intangible tangible.  However, don't let the label (or your perception of the label) stop you from achieving something greater. 

Many things are true because we believe them to be, but when we let go of past beliefs, the impossible becomes possible, and the invisible becomes visible.  

Hope that helps. 

Making News Beautiful Again

My mother watches the news religiously.  To her credit, she watches a variety of sources and creates her own takeaways based on them.  Regardless, there's a common theme in all the sources she watched – they focus on fear or shock-inducing stories with a negative bias.  As you might guess, I hear it when I talk with her.

While I value being informed, I also value things that nourish or make you stronger (as opposed to things that make you weak or less hopeful).

Negativity Sells. 

Sure, news sources throw in the occasional feel-good story as a pattern interrupt ... but their focus skews negative.  History shows that stories about improvement or the things that work simply don't grab eyeballs, attention, or ratings as consistently as negativity-focused stories do.

The reality is that negativity sells.  If everything were great all the time, people wouldn't need to buy as many products, they wouldn't need to watch the news, and this cycle wouldn't continue.

It's worth acknowledging and understanding the perils our society is facing, but it's also worth focusing on the ways humanity is expanding and improving.

As a brief respite from the seemingly unending stream of doom and gloom, Information Is Beautiful has a section focused on "Beautiful News".  It's a collection of visualizations highlighting positive trends, uplifting statistics, and creative solutions.  It's updated daily and can be sorted by topic.  I suggest you check it out.

 

Beautiful News via Information Is Beautiful

If you're looking for more "good news," here's a list of 10 sources focusing on good news. 

Let me know if you have a site you'd like to share.

Have a great week!

Some Timeless Wisdom From Socrates

Small distinctions separate wise men from fools ... Perhaps most important among them is what the wise man deems consequential. 

This post discusses Socrates' Triple Filter Test, which involves checking information for truth, goodness, and usefulness.  It also explores how this concept applies to decision-making in business and life by focusing on important information and filtering out the rest.  The key to making better choices and staying focused is to avoid damaging or irrelevant information.

Socrates' Triple Filter

In ancient Greece, Socrates was reputed to hold knowledge in high esteem.  One day an acquaintance met the great philosopher and said, "Do you know what I just heard about your friend?"

"Hold on a minute," Socrates replied. "Before telling me anything, I'd like you to pass a little test. It's called the Triple Filter Test."

"Triple filter?"

"That's right," Socrates continued.  "Before you talk to me about my friend, it might be a good idea to take a moment and filter what you're going to say. That's why I call it the triple filter test.

The first filter is Truth.  Have you made absolutely sure that what you are about to tell me is true?"

"No," the man said, "Actually I just heard about it and…"

"All right," said Socrates. "So you don't really know if it's true or not. Now let's try the second filter, the filter of Goodness.  Is what you are about to tell me about my friend something good?"

"No, on the contrary…"

"So," Socrates continued, "You want to tell me something bad about him, but you're not certain it's true.  You may still pass the test though, because there's one filter left.  The third filter is Usefulness.  Is what you want to tell me about my friend going to be useful to me?"

"No, not really."

"Well," concluded Socrates, "If what you want to tell me is neither true, nor good, nor even useful … then why tell it to me at all?"

With all the divisiveness in both media and in our everyday conversations with friends, family, and strangers ... this is a good filter for what you say, what you post, and even how you evaluate markets, the economy, or a business opportunity. 

How Does That Apply to Me or Trading?

The concept of Socrates' Triple Filter applies to markets as well.

When I was a technical trader, rather than looking at fundamental data and scouring the news daily, I focused on developing dynamic and adaptive systems and processes to look at the universe of trading algorithms to identify which were in phase and likely to perform well in the current market environment.

That focus has become more concentrated as we've transitioned to using advanced mathematics and AI to understand markets. 

Filter Out What Isn't Good For You.

In contrast, there are too many ways that the media (meaning the techniques, graphics, music, etc.), the people reporting it, and even the news itself appeal to the fear and greed of human nature.

Likewise, I don't watch the news on TV anymore.  It seems like story after story is about terrible things.  For example, during a recent visit with my mother, I listened to her watch the news.  There was a constant stream of "oh no," or "oh my," and "that's terrible".  You don't even have to watch the news to know what it says.

These concepts also apply to what you feed your algorithms.  Garbage in, garbage out.  Just because you can plug in more data doesn't mean that data will add value.  Deciding what "not to do" and "what not to listen to" is equally as important as deciding what to do. 

Artificial intelligence is exciting, but artificial stupidity is terrifying. 

What's The Purpose of News for You?

My purpose changes what I'm looking for and how much attention I pay to different types of information.  Am I reading or watching the news for entertainment, to learn something new, or to find something relevant and actionable?

 

 

One of my favorite activities is looking for new insights and interesting articles to share with you and my team.  If you aren't getting my weekly reading list on Fridays - you're missing out.  You can sign up here. 

By the way, I recently found a site, Ground News, that makes it easy to compare news sources, read between the lines of media bias, and break free from the blinders the algorithms put on what we see.  I'd love to hear about tools or sites you think are worth sharing.

Getting back to Socrates' three filters and business, I often ask myself: is it important, does it affect our edge, or can I use it as a catalyst for getting what we want?

There's a lot of noise out there competing for your attention.  Stay focused. 

Onwards!