Capitalogix

Spring and Rebirth

For Jews, Friday was the first night of Passover, a family-centric holiday that recounts the biblical story of the Exodus of the ancient Israelites from Egypt into the Promised Land. For me, it's a reminder to appreciate what we have – and how we stand on the shoulders of those who came before us. 

For Christians, today is Easter - the holiday honoring Jesus's resurrection. 

The overlap can be seen in DaVinci's Last Supper, a Passover Seder, and Jesus's last meal before his Crucifixion.  

For Jews, a notable part of the ritual dinner is recounting each of the ten plagues inflicted upon Biblical Egypt and saying, "Never again."

Last year, I joked that maybe COVID-19 should be added to the list. 

And, just like the Jews making it through slavery, the plagues, and 40 years wandering through the wilderness and desert before entering the Promised Land ... We are finally approaching the promise of life post-COVID.

Of course, other global events remind us that while the world and our capabilities continue to improve and expand ... human nature stays maddeningly the same.

With the coming of spring, the return to normalcy, and the reminders from the stories of Exodus and Easter - it's a great time to do a mental and physical "spring cleaning". Mine your experiences for the things you want to keep doing (or continue not doing) as things go back to "normal".  

Hope you celebrated with family, food, and a reverence for all the blessings around you. 

Global Happiness Levels in 2022

Happiness is a complex concept comprised of conditions that highlight positive emotions over negative ones – bolstered by the support of comfort, freedom, wealth, and other things people aspire to experience. 

Regardless of how hard it is to describe (let alone quantify) ... humans strive for happiness.

Likewise, it is hard to imagine a well-balanced and objective "Happiness Report" because so much of the data required to compile it seems subjective and requires self-reporting. 

Nonetheless, the World Happiness Report takes an annual look at quantifiable factors (like health, wealth, GDP, and life expectancy) and more intangible factors (like social support, generosity, emotions, and perceptions of local government and businesses).  Click the image below to view the Report.

via visualcapitalist

In their 2021 report, there was a significant focus on the effect of COVID-19 on happiness levels and mental health. Much of that continued into the 2022 report. 

As you might expect, the pandemic caused a significant increase in negative emotions reported. Specifically, there were substantial increases in reports of worry and sadness across the ninety-five countries surveyed.  The decline in mental health was higher in groups prone to disenfranchisement or other particular challenges – e.g., women, young people, and poorer people. 

It is remarkable how resilient and stable the scores have been globally considering the amount of uncertainty, stress, and disruption households experienced this past year.

Ultimately, humans persevered in the face of economic insecurity, anxiety, and challenges to mental and physical health. 

This year, the average score improved slightly compared to 2021 - though worry and stress have continued to rise. 

There has been a decrease in overall happiness compared to pre-pandemic scores.  Yet, the relative balance demonstrated in the face of such adversity may point towards the existence of a hedonic treadmill - or a set-point of happiness.

Regardless of the circumstances, people can focus on what they choose, define what it means to them, and choose their actions.

I'm still surprised by what people can get used to ... and how some people find pockets of joy in even the hardest of times.  Conversely, other people use the same ability to feel profound unhappiness, even when they have seemingly everything. 

It's an oddly beautiful reminder that happiness comes from within.

Another bright spot, worth mentioning, has been the massive global upsurge in benevolence. People are supporting others, communities have stepped up, more money is being donated to charity, and more people are volunteering. 

Onwards!

Will Robots Take Your Job?

The fear of a robot-dominated future is mounting ... But, is there a basis for that fear?

It's a common trope in film, but as we all know, media is meant to capture attention - not emulate reality. 

Michael Osborne and Carl Frey, from Oxford University, calculated how susceptible various jobs are to automation. They based their results on nine key skills:

• social perceptiveness
• negotiation
• persuasion
• assisting and caring for others
• originality
• fine arts
• finger dexterity
• manual dexterity
• and the need to work in a cramped area

via Michael Osborne & Carl Frey (Click For A Comprehensive Infographic)

There are various statistics about the rate of change for robots taking jobs. Many expect that ~50% of current jobs will be automated by 2035.  Turns out, that statistic is from Michael and Carl, and the numbers were 47% by 2034¹. 

Realize that statistic actually refers to the risk of them being automated. That number doesn't take into account the realities of cost, regulation, politics, social pressure, preference, or the actual work and progress necessary to automate something – so it's unlikely the full 47% will be realized. 

 

via The Economist

Nonetheless, many use that quote to point toward a dystopian future of joblessness and an increasing lack of middle-class mobility.  

Mr. Frey isn't a proponent of that belief … and neither am I.  

Automation and innovation free us to focus on what matters most (or what can create the most value). The goal is not to have machines let us be fat, dumb, and lazy … it is to free us to focus on bigger and better things.

Industrialization created short-term strife – but vastly increased the economic pie over the long term. So did electricity or the internet. It's likely that future automation will have similar effects, but it's possible to minimize the pain and potential negative impacts if we learn from previous iterations of this cycle. The fact that we're so far along technologically in comparison to previous revolutions means we're in a better position to proactively handle the transition periods.

New tech comes with both “promise” and “peril”. We must manage the short-term consequences of the new tech – because it is inevitable. With that said, by embracing innovation, we can make sure it is a boon to the middle-class (and all of society) and not the bane of their existence.

Throughout history, technology has always created more jobs than it has destroyed.

Progress means the restructuring of society’s norms … not the destruction of society.

When we first started using technology, that progress allowed humans to stop acting like robots (think farming and manufacturing). As technology improved, we have "robots" that seem to act more like humans. They can play chess, or shoot a basketball, etc.

The truth is that humans didn’t act like robots. They did what they had to to survive. As technology improved, we look back and have trouble imagining a time when humans had to do those things. Technology often focuses on the most pressing “constraint” or “pain." It isn’t getting more human, it is simply more capable … which frees us to ascend as well.
There are many aspects of humanity that robots can't yet replace. But as we move forward, technology will continue to free us to be more human (which I assume means to be more creative, more caring, more empathetic, and more original).

Doom and gloom sell. It's much easier to convince people something's going to be painful than amazing (because we're creatures of habit, and our monkey brains fear pain much more than they enjoy pleasure).

Our attitudes and actions play a pivotal role in how the world impacts us.

We are positioned not only to survive the revolution but to take advantage of it.

AI is a gold rush, but you don't have to be a miner to strike it rich. You can provide the picks and shovels, the amenities, or a map that helps people find treasures.

Onwards!

_________________

^[1] Frey, Carl & Osborne, Michael. (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?

How Many Humans Have Lived?

Despite news of declining birth rates, the world’s population continues to grow because of advances in science, technology, and medicine.

We're nearing a global population of eight billion people. 

There have never been as many people alive as there are now.  But have you ever wondered how many humans have lived on this planet, in total, over the long arc of history?

 

via visualcapitalist

The number takes a lot of estimation, but you end up with approximately 109 billion people over the course of human existence. 

That means almost 7% of all humans who have ever existed are alive today.  It also means that for every person alive, nearly 14 people are dead.  That number seems small to me as I think about how many generations came before us.

While this might be somewhat interesting, the more important question is what you will do with the time left in your hourglass?  To learn more about what I think about that, here's an article I wrote on the time value of time and here's an article I wrote on the power of purpose and how healthy mindsets extend your life. 

The Power of Purpose

Here is a chart you might find interesting.  It shows the longevity of the founding fathers of the United States.

Take a closer look.  The chart highlights something important.

via Dan Sullivan, Strategic Coach

During the time in question, males had an expected lifespan of between 35 and 40 years.  In stark contrast, the founding fathers lived more than twice that long (except for Alexander Hamilton, who made the bad decision to embrace dueling).

I don’t believe this chart shows the disparity of “Haves” and “Have Nots”.  Instead, it shows the importance of purpose.  The Founding Fathers understood how important their efforts and ideas were (not only to their lives ... but also to the lives of the people who relied on them – and to future generations).  They truly saw a bigger future and their part in its creation.

Common wisdom posits that a lot of longevity comes down to diet and exercise.

 

via SomeEcards

Clearly, sleep and stress management matter too.  With that said, healthy mindsets potentially have the most significant impact on your health, well-being, and longevity.

Mindset Matters.

Dan Sullivan wrote an e-book called “My Plan for Living to 156”.  His message was to stop being nostalgic about the past and anxious about the future.

Most people’s notion about how long they’ll live becomes an oppressive thought.  They feel confined by their expected lifespan, often based on family history and averages.  But what if you could extend your lifetime? What if you could increase the quality of the years you had left? How would adding extra years impact the way you live now?

The goal of living to 156 may sound outrageous.  But in reading this book, you’ll find that imagination can have a huge impact on behavior and accomplishment. And, even if you don't make it to 156, the years you're left with will be better for it. 

You don’t have to actually believe that you will live to 156 (or some other huge number).  Simply adopting a mindset that you have extra time permits you to set longer-term goals and focus on bigger possibilities.  As a result, those mindsets allow you to focus on continued learning and growth, rather than looking for an excuse or an easy off-ramp.

Purpose is a master key!  It gives you direction, capabilities, and confidence.

As I think about these issues, I know that I want to be valuable and interesting to those around me as long as I’m here.  That means I want to be healthy, fit, and vital as well!  The reason?  So I can focus on living ... rather than not dying.

I’ve heard it said many times, in many different ways, but one of the easiest ways to predict your life and lifestyle is to take the average of the five people you spend the most time with.  Consequently, it’s important to surround yourself with people committed to bigger futures!

Likewise, it’s important to set goals and scorecards that keep you focused on what matters and continued progress.

Even if you don’t live until 156, I think it’s important and healthy to live now as if you will!

Onwards.

The Power of Resilience and Grit

I believe in setting high standards and committing to achieving them.  A big part of success is knowing that you can do anything you commit to ... and then all you have to do is honor your commitment and continue to make progress.  As long as you don't stop ... the rest takes care of itself.

Said another way, resilience is the ability to recover from or adjust to misfortune or change, whereas grit is the passion and perseverance for long-term goals.  Sure, you will encounter errors, injuries, setbacks, competition, bad luck, and other practical realities of life.  But, together, resilience and grit make almost anything possible.

Bottom line, if you want success of any kind, you have to be comfortable being uncomfortable.

When I was in high school, I was a state champion shot-putter.  The first time I got that title was during my junior year.  After winning, I watched my dad run down from the stands.  I figured he was coming down to celebrate.  Instead, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was disappointed?  I replied: "But Dad, I won!" He nodded and said he knew – but reminded me that I did not throw a personal best that day.  He recognized that winning was important too ... Then he reminded me that the other throwers were not the real competition.  

Going into my senior year, I had a multi-season undefeated streak.  However, I tore a tendon in my throwing hand at the end of the indoor track season where I won State again.  Fast forward to the first meet of the outdoor season ... and I was on the sidelines with a cast on my hand.  A local reporter came up to me and asked how it felt to lose my unbeaten streak.  I was confused.  I wasn't losing ... I just wasn't competing.

But, the concept gnawed at me. 

Ultimately, I cut the cast off my hand and tried unsuccessfully to wrap it tight enough that it didn't hurt.  When that didn't work, I slammed my hand against the floor until it was numb ... I threw once and managed to win.  It got easier from there, and I ended the year undefeated.

I think part of it is in my DNA.  My father and grandfather were both athletes.  My dad played football at Temple University (on the same team as Bill Cosby).  He thought he would continue playing with the Philadelphia Eagles, but his career was cut short by a car accident before tryouts.  And my grandfather was a professional wrestler named the Green Hornet, 

Here is a picture of us together.

Three Generations of Getsons

My youngest son, Zach, was just selected to represent the USA in rugby in the Maccabi Games this July.  This selection comes after 3 ACL surgeries and countless other injuries.  And he's doing it in a sport with no pads at the ripe old age of 29. 

I continue to watch him get better at the game, despite adversity and what I like to call a "burst of slowness".

He's currently raising money for his trip.  If you'd like to support his journey to represent the USA, you can learn more and do so here. 

Despite our family's relative "accolades" in sports, we're not the fastest or most athletic people. 

My dad used to joke that our people were meant to own the teams, not play for them. 

So, despite the lack of raw athleticism, what drives us to success?  I believe the answer is mindset.

The Secret To Success

Your mindset is a set of beliefs that shape how you make sense of the world and yourself.  It influences how you think, feel, and behave in any given situation.

My family jokes that my first complete sentence was "It's my way, and you're in it."  Meanwhile, I also believe that "the game isn't over until I win." Combine those beliefs ... and it explains why my feet would still be moving toward my goals even if you shot me in the head.

Likewise, my son has continued to reach new heights in rugby because he's stayed committed and hard-working long after most of his more athletic peers gave up.

Life is not a sprint; it's a marathon. 

How long can you put more effort in, and how many times can you fail without giving up?  The answer is as long as you choose! 

The habits and lessons of resilience and grit serve well in sports, business, and life.

Too many give up right before they win. 

Frankly, too many people stop at the beginning.  But you will likely suck at something before you are okay at it.  Likewise, you have to be okay before you can be good.  Then you have to be good before you can be great!

It takes time and energy to separate yourself from the pack. 

My father taught me that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards.  Why?  Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted by other things and how to meet the minimum standards for them as well.

Here is something else worth sharing; it was one of his favorite sayings.  "The difference between good and great is infinitesimal." People who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them.

The secret to "better" is to set higher standards and commit to achieve them.

It is really quite simple.

1. Set big goals and high standards
2. Plan how to get there
3. Never stop moving
4. Never give up

If you follow those rules, it's hard not to succeed. 

No Crying In Trading

As a fund manager, I am always looking for ways to eliminate emotions (like fear and greed).  During crazy times, like these, that is harder than seems.

But as a father whose son just got married, the equation was different.  It's been six years since I originally shared this video; but as we near their wedding anniversary, I re-watched this video ... and decided to share it again. 

One of my son's instructions to the "Officiant" was to make me cry.  I made it through the Ceremony; then, I got a chance to say a few words at the Wedding Reception.  Here they are …

 

The words "I love you" are powerful.  Most people consider it an expression of emotion.  It can also be a promise …

Artificial Intelligence Is Great, Artificial Stupidity Is Scary

When I first got out of Law School in the 1980s, "professionals" didn't type ... that was your assistant's job (or the "typing pool," which was a real thing too).

At that point, most people couldn't have imagined what computers and software are capable of now.  And if you tried to tell people how pervasive computers and 'typing' would be ... they would have thought that you were delusional.

My career has spanned a series of cycles where I was able to imagine what advanced tech would enable (and how businesses would have to change to best leverage those new capabilities).

Malcolm Gladwell suggests that it takes 10,000 hours of focus and effort for someone to become an expert at something.  While that is not necessarily true or accurate, it's still a helpful heuristic.

Today, we can do research that took humans 10,000 hours in the time it took you to read this sentence.  Moreover, technology doesn't forget what it's learned – As a result, technological memory is much better than yours or mine.  Consequently, the type and quality of decisions, inferences, and actions are better as well.  Ultimately, we will leverage the increased speed, capacity, and capabilities of autonomous platforms.  While that is easy to anticipate, the consequences of these discontinuous innovations are hard to predict.  Things often take longer to happen than you would think.  But, when they do, the consequences are often more significant and more far-reaching than anticipated.

Still, technology isn't a cure-all.  Many people miss out on the benefits of A.I. and technology for the same reasons they didn't master the hobbies they picked up as an adolescent. 

I shot a video discussing how to use technology to create a sustainable creative advantage.  Check it out. 

 

 

Many people recognize a "cool" new technology (like A.I.), but they underestimate the level of commitment and effort that mastery takes. 

When using A.I. and high-performance computing, you need to ask the same questions you ask yourself about your ultimate purpose. 

• What's my goal?
• What do I (or my systems) need to learn to accomplish my goal?
• What are the best ways to achieve that goal (or something better)?

Too many companies are focused on A.I. as if that is the goal.  A.I. is simply a tool.  As I mentioned in the video, you must define the problem the right way in order to find an optimal solution. 

Artificial Intelligence is a game-changer - so you have to approach it as such. 

Know your mission and your strategy, recognize what you're committing to, set it as a compass heading and make deliberate movement in that direction. 

I end the video by saying, "Wisdom comes from making finer distinctions.  So, it is an iterative and recursive process... but it is also evolutionary.  And frankly, that is extraordinarily exciting!"

I hope you agree.

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 6th, 2022

Have you paid attention at all to the Spotify controversy?

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How Emerging Tech Will Influence Freedom, Industry, and Money In the Metaverse. (VentureBeat)
• Here's What Henry Kissinger Thinks About the Future of Artificial Intelligence. (Gizmodo)
• Boston Scientists Create "Robots" that are Capable of Reproduction. (CBS News)
• Eureka Moments Come From Deep Within Subconscious Brain. (GreekReporter)
• Revenge: The Neuroscience of Why It Feels Good In the Moment, But May Be a Bad Idea In the Long Run. (NeuroScienceNews)

 

Trading Links:

• The Tech Sell-Off Has Some Venture Capitalists Worried the Good Times May Be Coming to an End. (CNBC)
• Have We Hit Peak Unicorn? (GeekWire)
• Here's Where the Jobs Are In One Chart. (CNBC)
• Amazon In Talks To Purchase Fitness Equipment Producer Peloton. (AppleInsider)
• Amazon Added More to Its Market Capitalization on Friday Than Any Company Ever Had in a Single Day. (MarketWatch)

 

It Isn’t Whether Tom Brady Is Retiring – It’s About When ... and Why We Care?

In 2017, I wrote an article “asking” why the Patriots were so good. Then Tom Brady left, the Patriots have suffered (somewhat), and Tom Brady won another Super Bowl with the Buccaneers. 

 

Now, several sports pundits are reporting that he may be retiring. Tom Brady insists that he hasn’t made a final decision yet. 

Of course, there is the matter of the $15 Million portion of his signing bonus that becomes payable to him on Friday. That might explain the “confusion” on timing?

Regardless, all this talk reminded me about what makes Tom Brady special. 

There is a difference between ‘luck’ and ‘skill’.

Both exist ... yet, luck favors the prepared.

In life, as in sports, hard work often beats talent (especially if talent fails to work hard).

But, when you see this picture from the 2000 NFL Combine, it’s hard to believe that Tom Brady would be a 7-time Superbowl MVP taking the Buccaneers to the Super Bowl in his first year with them. All at the geriatric (for an NFL player) age of 44. 

 

via CBS Sports

When I talked about the Patriots, I focused on the fact that they were a well-oiled machine with a powerful framework of success that allowed individual greatness to shine. 

I think Brady’s continued success is emblematic of that. 

Tom Brady is a paragon of culture, process, and hard work. Much of his approach was molded by his time with Belichick, but of course, he gets enormous personal credit as well. 

He expects the best of himself and brings out the best in his teammates. That’s enabled him to stay a top-level competitor despite not being the strongest, fastest, or most mobile QB (and that was when he was young). 

As well, Tom Brady is remarkably consistent and disciplined; his diet, his routine, his exercise, his film routine, etc. All NFL athletes have impressive routines for the most part, but take a look at Tom Brady’s routine. It’s a routine built for him and his needs - and he’s got it dialed in. He doesn’t need to waste time trying to get big in the gym, so he focuses on 9-key exercises to support his goals. 

The System is the ‘system’; but, within it, you can measure what works, who contributes, and then use those insights to identify the best things to try next.

Win, lose, or draw ... some things speak for themselves. And whether he retires today, next year, or never, we don’t need to wait five years to know he’s a Hall of Fame player with an incredible career.