Capitalogix

Americans' Top Financial Concern

It's no secret that the economy is slowing - with high inflation rates and rising interest rates. 

According to Mohamed El-Erian, from Queens College at Cambridge University, we're experiencing stagflation - which is when inflation is high but growth is slowing significantly. Theoretically, that leads to recession. 

via visualcapitalist

The Consumer Price Index has also grown by over 8% in the past year, so the American household is facing financial threats from many angles. 

Many feel that the Fed has responded disappointingly recently, and their response (or lack thereof) will be a major dictator of whether we enter a recession. 

I believe that emotions play a role too. When people are afraid, they spend less and hoard what they can to save themselves from an unknown future. They feel anticipatory grief.  And their fear, uncertainty, and doubt ripple through society and our lives. 

Personally, I've weathered my heaviest storms by sailing toward the future regardless of the threats. An abundance mindset is a powerful tool, and as more people feel confident it becomes a macroeconomic trend with real influence. 

I'd encourage you to think about what opportunities there are and will be. There are always seasons of change … Winter eventually comes – and goes. Nevertheless, winter can be a great opportunity to plan your next moves and build the infrastructure to sow more seeds in the coming spring. 

As well, unlike nature, you can personally have springtime while the majority are in winter. We're currently in an A.I. springtime - and I believe that will continue regardless of economic trends. 

Happy to talk about this … Let me know what you are thinking and feeling!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 2nd, 2022

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Musk Breaks 9-Day Silence on Twitter, Posts a Picture With the Pope. (Reuters)
• Your Internet Life Needs a Feeds Reboot Here's How to Do It. (TheVerge)
• Analysis of Compound Curse Words Used on Reddit. (FlowingData)
• The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine. (Cold-takes)
• How Netflix Grew from DVD Service to a Hollywood Disruptor with Over 200 Million Subscribers That is Now Losing Customers. (Insider)

 

Trading Links:

• Here's How Long Bear Markets Last And How Stocks React When They End. (ComplianceX)
• Families May Be Offered Mortgages of 50 YEARS that They Can Then Pass to Their Children. (DailyMail)
• Amazon Delivers Some Bad News for the Economy. (TheStreet)
• Crypto's Domino Effect is Widening, Threatening More Pain. (Wall Street Journal)
• 'A Lot of People are Just Not Understanding What's Going On': A 30-Year Market Vet Lays Out 7 Reasons Why a Recession is Imminent And Says Stocks Will End the Sell-Off Down 60%. (Insider)

 

 

Happy Father's Day 2022

For Father's Day, my youngest son took me to see Top Gun 2 in DFX.  It's been a while since I've been in a movie theatre, and this was a movie worth doing the right way.  It lived up to the hype. 

He also took me to brunch and invited his girlfriend - a rare occasion that I hope becomes more common.

It's been ten years since he started working with me at Capitalogix. Here's his first professional pic and his most recent.  Time flies while you are getting older!

As a father, having great kids is a double blessing.  On one hand, it's nice to be proud of who your kids are and the things they do.  On the other hand, it's also nice to feel proud of the small part you played in helping them become who they are.  It's also my first Father's Day as a grandfather.   After decades of messing with my kids, now I get to mess with a new generation! 

Of course, I also look back ... and spent some time thinking about my father and his terrific influence on so many lives.  

My Dad was incredibly loving.  Yet, he was also incredibly demanding.

For example, after winning the State Championship in the shot put, I watched him run down from the stands.  I figured he was coming down to celebrate.  Instead, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was disappointed that I did not throw a personal best that day?  I replied: "But Dad, I won." He smiled and recognized that winning was important too ... then he reminded me that the other throwers were not the real competition.  In life, to be and do your best, the competition is really with yourself; and we both knew I could do better.

My Dad believed in setting high standards.  He explained that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards.  Why?  Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted by other things and meeting the minimum standards for them as well.

Here is something else worth sharing; it was one of his favorite sayings.  "The difference between good and great is infinitesimal."  This applies to many things.  For example, people who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them.  The point is to set a higher standard and to have a better life.

Well, that should explain a little of the dysfunction ...  but, if you can't mess up your own kids, whose kids can you mess up?

Hopefully, you had a happy Father's Day weekend. 

A Look At The Best Athletes

There is a huge difference between good and great.

Apparently, there is often a huge difference between the great and the greatest.

In sports, there are many fantastic athletes whose names we will remember.  Then there are the athletes who stand apart from the rest ... like Michael Phelps or Usain Bolt. 

I recently stumbled upon a few charts highlighting the stratification between the top 1% and the #1. 

Tom Brady

via NY Times

To put that statistic in perspective, no other quarterback has even played in 35 postseason games ...  but that is another measure of Tom Brady's greatness. 

Jerry Rice

sdbernard via Reddit

Some prominent names are missing from this list - like Julio Jones or Megatron - but, clearly, Jerry's performance stands apart from other legends of the game.  For context, Julio Jones only had 61 TDs, which is relatively low on this chart, but averages 92 yards per game ... which is so high that he'd be off the chart. 

Wayne Gretzky

via NumberHound

Wayne Gretzky is a sports legend, but this chart really puts it in perspective.  Leader by a large margin in both assists and goals.  He also has one of my favorite quotes -

“A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.”

Here's another interesting Wayne Gretzky stat: 

Together, Wayne and Brent hold the NHL record for most combined points by two brothers - 2,857 for Wayne and 4 for Brent,^[2] and are second overall in points scored by any number of brothers (behind the six brothers of the Sutter family who combined for 2,934 NHL points - 73 more than Wayne and Brent, although the Gretzkys' combined totals are greater than any five of the six Sutters.) - Wikipedia on Brent Gretzky

Serena Williams 

via Yahoo!Sports

What about Nature versus Nurture?

Genetics and upbringing might play a part in greatness.  There are several great sibling combos like the Gretzkys, the Mannings, and the Williams sisters. 

Both Venus and Serena are dominant athletes, but Serena is in the running for one of the most dominant athletes in any sport. 

Have you seen any other crazy stats like these?  I'd love to see them. 

Don't Touch That Dial

History may not repeat itself exactly ... but it often rhymes. News stories, however, seem to replicate.

There is nothing wrong with your television. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are now controlling the transmission. We control the horizontal and the vertical. We can deluge you with a thousand channels or expand one single image to crystal clarity and beyond. We can shape your vision to anything our imagination can conceive. - The Outer Limits (1963)

 

via YouTube

It almost feels like an episode of Black Mirror, watching these stations quote the same pre-determined diatribe on fake news and its danger to our democracy.

The very message they are purportedly supporting, in the video above, directly contradicts their actions. 

Most people realize this happens to some degree, but it seems different when presented like this.

I believe I am reasonably aware and somewhat immune from propaganda. That probably isn't as true as I'd like to believe.

Meanwhile, Sinclar Broadcast Group owns nearly 200 stations in 80 different markets and wants to buy more. That is a powerful platform to deliver mass messages and influence the zeitgeist of its audience.

It used to be true that winners wrote history (think empires, wars, etc.). Now, the one that delivers the most broadcast narratives shapes the emotional and seemingly logical responses to what we perceive to be happening around us.

The result impacts elections, financial markets, buying choices, and countless other areas of our life. 

We see and hear it every day about politics, wars, economic issues, and many other things we don't focus on enough to notice.

As A.I., Bots, and social media grow, our ability to discern truth from 'truthiness' weakens. Especially with the growth of deepfakes. 

What do you think about this?

The OODA Loop: Making Fast Decisions

I recently came across an interesting technique that fighter pilots use to make fast and accurate decisions in high-stakes situations. 

The Air Force calls it an OODA Loop.

It is an iterative feedback model designed by Colonel John Boyd that serves as a foundation for rational thinking in chaotic situations like dogfights.

It stands for Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. 

via Wikipedia

Why do people use decision models?  Obviously, to make better decisions.  But really, they use models to create a process that avoids many of the mistakes or constraints that prevent good decisions.

You make countless decisions every day - and at a certain point, you reach decision fatigue. It can be harder to make decisions when you are tired, after you've made too many, or when the intensity of the environment distracts or drains you. 

It's one of the reasons I rely on artificial intelligence. Here are some others. 

• Best practice becomes standard practice. 
• It accounts for signal and noise.
• It attempts to quantify or otherwise make objective assessments, comparisons, and choices. 
• And, it often gives you a better perspective by letting you apply and compare different models or decision techniques to achieve the desired outcome.

Nonetheless, many algorithms are dynamic and adaptive automation of processes or strategies that humans have used successfully before.

So, let's take a closer look at the OODA Loop, which stemmed from analyzing many interactions between and among fighter pilots during battle and training. 

Observe

The first step is to observe the situation to build the most accurate and comprehensive picture possible. The goal is to take in the whole of the circumstances and environment. It's not enough to observe and collect information, you must process the data and create useful meaning. 

It's the same with data collection for an AI system. Ingesting or collecting data isn't enough. You have to be able to apply the data for it to become useful. 

Orient

This step is less intuitive but very important. When you orient yourself, you're recognizing strength, weakness, opportunity, and threat to identify how changing the dimensionality or perspective alters the outcome. 

It's reconnecting with reality in the context of your cognitive biases, your recent decisions, and more. Have you received new information since starting?

I think of this as carrying a map and pulling out a compass while exploring new lands. Sometimes you need to remember where you started, and sometimes you need to make sure you're going where you think you are. 

Decide

The last two steps provide the foundation for taking action. When there are multiple decisions in front of you, observing and orienting help you choose wisely. 

In business and with AI, you can go through these loops multiple times. 

Act 

The best-made plans mean nothing if you don't act on them. Once you've taken action, you can reobserve, reorient, and keep moving forward. 

Conclusion

Like most good mental models, The OODA loop works in many situations and industries.

Speed is often a crucial competitive advantage. For example, knowing (and taking decisive action) while others are still guessing (and taking tentative action) is something I call time arbitrage. 

Said another way, you make progress faster by walking in the right direction than by running in the wrong direction. 

These processes (and technology) also help us grow more comfortable with uncertainty and uncomfortableness. Markets are only getting more volatile. Uncertainty is increasing. But, when you have the ability to adapt and respond, you can survive and thrive in any climate. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 1st, 2022

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• What is Web 3.0? Here's What the Internet Will Look Like In the Future. (LaptopMag)
• Amazing Video Shows a Tiny Jumping Robot Like Nothing You've Ever Seen. (BGR)
• 103 Bits of Advice I Wish I Had Known. (Kevin Kelly’s Technium)
• Does (Hand) Size Matter? Inside the NFL Draft's Fear of Tiny-Handed QBs. (GQ)
• This $2 Billion Personal Submarine is So Huge that It Can Dwarf a MegaYacht. the Vessel is Almost Three Times Longer Than a Football Field, It Has Lavish VIP Suites, a Helipad and Even an Open Deck Swimming Pool. (LL)

 

Trading Links:

• Bored Ape Metaverse Frenzy Raises Millions, Disrupts Ethereum. (Bloomberg)
• Can Capitalism Survive? 80 Years After Schumpeter's Answer. (AIER)
• Americans are Showing Inflation Fatigue, and Some Companies See a Breaking Point. (FoxBusiness)
• Foreclosure Filings are Up 132% From a Year Prior. Here's What that Means for the Housing Market (And It's Not What You Might Think). (MarketWatch)
• Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger Called Out Stock-Market Gamblers, Dismissed Bitcoin as Worthless, and Underlined the Risks of Inflation. Here are Their 12 Best Quotes from Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Meeting. (Markets)

How I Got Started In Artificial Intelligence

Recently, I've had several people ask about how I got into AI. 

There are a couple of different answers, but I shot a video to go through the main points. 

 

Click here for a transcript

You could argue that I got my start in AI with my most recent company - Capitalogix - which started almost 20 years ago. You could also say that my previous company - IntellAgent Control - was an early AI company, and that's where I got my start.  By today's standards, the technology we used back then was too simple to call AI ... but at the time, we were on the cutting edge.

You could go further back and say it started when I became the first lawyer in my firm to use a computer, and I fell in love with technology. 

As I look back, I've spent my whole life on this path.  My fascination with making better decisions, taking smarter actions, and a commitment to getting better results probably started when I was two years old (because of the incident discussed in the video).

Ultimately, the starting point is irrelevant. Looking back, it seems inevitable. The decisions I made, the people I met, and my experiences ... they all led me here.

However, at any point in the journey, if you asked, "Is this where you thought you'd end up?" I doubt that I'd have said yes. 

I've always been fascinated by what makes people successful and how to become more efficient and effective. In a sense, that's what AI does. It's a capability amplifier. 

When I switched from being a corporate securities lawyer to an entrepreneur, I intended to go down that path. 

Artificial Intelligence happened to be the best vehicle I found to do that. It made sense then, and it makes sense now.

I wouldn't have it any other way. 

Onwards!

Spring and Rebirth

For Jews, Friday was the first night of Passover, a family-centric holiday that recounts the biblical story of the Exodus of the ancient Israelites from Egypt into the Promised Land. For me, it's a reminder to appreciate what we have – and how we stand on the shoulders of those who came before us. 

For Christians, today is Easter - the holiday honoring Jesus's resurrection. 

The overlap can be seen in DaVinci's Last Supper, a Passover Seder, and Jesus's last meal before his Crucifixion.  

For Jews, a notable part of the ritual dinner is recounting each of the ten plagues inflicted upon Biblical Egypt and saying, "Never again."

Last year, I joked that maybe COVID-19 should be added to the list. 

And, just like the Jews making it through slavery, the plagues, and 40 years wandering through the wilderness and desert before entering the Promised Land ... We are finally approaching the promise of life post-COVID.

Of course, other global events remind us that while the world and our capabilities continue to improve and expand ... human nature stays maddeningly the same.

With the coming of spring, the return to normalcy, and the reminders from the stories of Exodus and Easter - it's a great time to do a mental and physical "spring cleaning". Mine your experiences for the things you want to keep doing (or continue not doing) as things go back to "normal".  

Hope you celebrated with family, food, and a reverence for all the blessings around you. 

Global Happiness Levels in 2022

Happiness is a complex concept comprised of conditions that highlight positive emotions over negative ones – bolstered by the support of comfort, freedom, wealth, and other things people aspire to experience. 

Regardless of how hard it is to describe (let alone quantify) ... humans strive for happiness.

Likewise, it is hard to imagine a well-balanced and objective "Happiness Report" because so much of the data required to compile it seems subjective and requires self-reporting. 

Nonetheless, the World Happiness Report takes an annual look at quantifiable factors (like health, wealth, GDP, and life expectancy) and more intangible factors (like social support, generosity, emotions, and perceptions of local government and businesses).  Click the image below to view the Report.

via visualcapitalist

In their 2021 report, there was a significant focus on the effect of COVID-19 on happiness levels and mental health. Much of that continued into the 2022 report. 

As you might expect, the pandemic caused a significant increase in negative emotions reported. Specifically, there were substantial increases in reports of worry and sadness across the ninety-five countries surveyed.  The decline in mental health was higher in groups prone to disenfranchisement or other particular challenges – e.g., women, young people, and poorer people. 

It is remarkable how resilient and stable the scores have been globally considering the amount of uncertainty, stress, and disruption households experienced this past year.

Ultimately, humans persevered in the face of economic insecurity, anxiety, and challenges to mental and physical health. 

This year, the average score improved slightly compared to 2021 - though worry and stress have continued to rise. 

There has been a decrease in overall happiness compared to pre-pandemic scores.  Yet, the relative balance demonstrated in the face of such adversity may point towards the existence of a hedonic treadmill - or a set-point of happiness.

Regardless of the circumstances, people can focus on what they choose, define what it means to them, and choose their actions.

I'm still surprised by what people can get used to ... and how some people find pockets of joy in even the hardest of times.  Conversely, other people use the same ability to feel profound unhappiness, even when they have seemingly everything. 

It's an oddly beautiful reminder that happiness comes from within.

Another bright spot, worth mentioning, has been the massive global upsurge in benevolence. People are supporting others, communities have stepped up, more money is being donated to charity, and more people are volunteering. 

Onwards!