Capitalogix

Honoring Serena Williams

Serena Williams officially retired on Friday after a loss in the third round of the US Open to 29-year-old Ajla Tomljanovic. Serena won her first Grand Slam Title 23 years ago in the same stadium. 

Serena started playing professional tennis in 1995 as a 14-year-old.  Twenty-seven years later, she walks away from the game with 858 tour victories, an 85% win rate, 73 singles titles, an Olympic gold medal, and 319 weeks at No. 1. With her sister, Venus, they won 14 major doubles titles and three Olympic gold medals.

Recently, I shared this graph that helps put the Williams sisters' dominance into perspective. 

via Yahoo!Sports

Serena is undoubtedly one of the most dominant athletes - man or woman - in any sport. 

To be great requires an extraordinary level of grit, determination, and pain tolerance over an extended period of time.  It isn't just what you choose to do from moment to moment – it's about a persistent commitment to who you choose to be!  

During Serena's final match, an ESPN commentator said something interesting about what makes her (and many famous athletes) great.  For context, Serena was down 5-1 in the final set of the final match, with her opponent having won two sets already.  It's 'game point'.   To get here, Ajla will win a point, then Serena - it goes back and forth like that more than seven times.  Yet, Serena keeps finding a way to keep herself in the match despite everything going against her. 

While this is going on, the commentator exclaims, "How can she care so much?  How can she keep dancing on the lip of the volcano?" 

Imagine being in Serena's position.  She's 40, she's announced her retirement, the match has been going on for almost 3 hours, and her chances of coming back are almost nil ... she has nothing left to prove ... but she keeps finding more in the tank.  She keeps putting herself in a position to turn it around.  After the match, her opponent makes clear that she never once thought that Serena was out of it - that she couldn't turn it around and clinch victory. 

It was beautiful - and it was a testament to the passion and discipline it takes to be that elite for that long. 

There's a difference between good and great - but there's also a difference between great and the greatest. 

A Reminder That People Can Be Good

The world seems pretty divided. 

Sometimes it feels like portraying people who think differently as "evil" has become a default strategy.  Frankly, it's exhausting.

As a break from that, here's a story of someone doing what most wouldn't. 

Mohamed Bzeek is a Libyan immigrant living in Los Angeles.  He's taken on a unique life mission.  He fosters terminally ill kids – so they don't have to die alone in hospitals.  He's been doing it for over 25 years (and he has fostered over 80 kids so far). 

 

via PBS Newshour

 

Over $800,000 has been raised via a GoFundMe campaign.  If you'd like to donate, you can do so here. 

Happy people find ways to be happy.  Generous people find ways to be generous.  Frustrated people find ways to be frustrated.

What do you find ways to do most often?

Some Cool "Futuristic" Tech You Might Not Have Seen

I joke that I have a "tense" problem. I spend a lot of my time thinking about what will be possible in the future. And once I know something is possible, in my head, it has already happened.

It isn’t a reality distortion engine … it is a reality creation engine.

For me, this is centered around the way technology is transforming the world and how it affects my business. 

Sometimes it's nice to take a step back and look at all the "quality of life" improvements. The gadgets that make you say "Wow!" … even though they may not benefit you directly. 

So, here are a few that caught my eye over the last few weeks. 

Augmented Reality Running 

In 2020, Ghost Pacer put together a pair of AR glasses that would give you a virtual running partner. The app would analyze the running route and the wearer's desired goals and set them up against a virtual runner who would push them to their limits. 

Last year, SNAP and Nike teamed up to create a new AR running experience as well. 

 

Spectacles via YouTube

This is a great way to get moving for those (like my wife) who benefit from a structure around their exercise. 

Magnetic Slime Robot for Healthcare

 

New Scientist via YouTube

Watching the video of this slime is somewhat uncanny. Its movements feel almost lifelike. That being said, the potential for this custard-like slime worm is massive. It can navigate narrow passageways, grasp objects, and more. There are already plans to use this to remove foreign objects from people.  

Functioning Hoverboards 

 

RIDE via YouTube

Multiple generations of kids have dreamed of hoverboards after watching Back To The Future. While it's not in homes yet, it is now a reality as seen in this video with Tony Hawk riding one. Unfortunately, since breaking into the scene in 2015 with a successful Kickstarter, I have not seen much from Hendo Hoverboard. 

Thankfully, they're not the only company in the space anymore. If you're willing to drop almost 15K, you can own a working hoverboard from Arcaboard. 

I remember when we used to go outside to play or exercise.

We live in interesting times!  

Understanding Data Breaches

In 2016, I received this e-mail from my oldest son, who used to be a cybersecurity professional.

Date: Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 7:09 PM
To: Howard Getson
Subject: FYI: Security Stuff

FYI - I just got an alert that my email address and my Gmail password were available to be purchased online.

I only use that password for my email, and I have 2-factor enabled, so I'm fine. Though this is further proof that just about everything is hacked and available online.

If you don't have two-factor enabled on your accounts, you really need to do it.

Since then, security has only become a more significant issue.  I wrote about the Equifax event, but there are countless examples of similar events (and yes, I mean countless). 

When people think of hacking, they often think of a Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attack or the media representation of people breaking into your system in a heist.

In reality, the most significant weakness is people; it's you ... the user.  It's the user that turns off automatic patch updating.  It's the user that uses thumb drives.  It's the user that reuses the same passwords.  But, even if you do everything right, you're not always safe. 

Your data is likely stored in dozens of places online.  You hope your information is encrypted, but even that isn't always enough.  Over the last 17 years, 17.2B records have been "lost" by various companies.  In 2021, a new record was set with 5.9 billion user records stolen. 

VisualCapitalist put together a visualization of the 50 biggest breaches since 2004. 

Click To See Full Size via VisualCapitalist

InformationisBeautiful also put together a great interactive visualization with all of the breaches, if you want to do more research. 

Click To See Interactive Version via InformationIsBeautiful

It's impossible to protect yourself completely, but there are many simple things you can likely do better. 

• Use better passwords... Even better, don't even know them.  You can't disclose what you don't know.  Consequently, I recommend a password manager like LastPass or 1Password, which can also suggest complex passwords for you. 
• Check if any of your information has been stolen via a website like HaveIBeenPwned or F-Secure
• Keep all of your software up to date (to avoid extra vulnerabilities)
• Don't use public Wi-Fi if you can help it (and use a VPN if you can't)
• Have a firewall on your computer and a backup of all your important data
• Never share your personal information on an e-mail or a call that you did not initiate - if they legitimately need your information, you can call them back
• Don't trust strangers on the internet (no, a Nigerian Prince does not want to send you money)
• Hire a third-party security company like eSentire or Pegasus Technology Solutions to help monitor and protect your corporate systems

How many cybersecurity measures you take comes down to two simple questions ... First, how much pain and hassle are you willing to deal with to protect your data?  And second, how much pain is a hacker willing to go through to get to your data?

My son always says, "you've already been hacked ... but have you been targeted?" Something to think about! 

Can AI Be Curious?

“Nobody phrases it this way, but I think that artificial intelligence is almost a humanities discipline. It's really an attempt to understand human intelligence and human cognition.” —Sebastian Thrun

We often use human consciousness as the ultimate benchmark for artificial exploration. 

The human brain is ridiculously intricate.  While weighing only three pounds, it contains about 100 billion neurons and 100 trillion connections between them.  On top of the sheer complexity, the order of the connections and the order of actions the brain does naturally make it even harder to replicate.  The human brain is also constantly reorganizing and adapting.  It's a beautiful piece of machinery.  

We've had millions of years for this powerhouse of a computer to be created, and now we're trying to do the same with neural networks and machines in a truncated time period.  While deep learning algorithms have been around for a while, we're just now developing enough data and computing power to change deep learning from a thought experiment to a real edge. 

Think of it this way, when talking about the human brain, we talk about left-brain and right-brain.  The theory is that left-brain activities are analytical and methodical, and right-brain activities are creative, free-form, and artistic.  We're great at training AI for left-brain activities (obviously with exceptions).  In fact, AI is beating us at these left-brain activities because a computer has a much higher input bandwidth than we do, they're less biased, and they can perform 10,000 hours of research by the time you finish this article.

It's tougher to train AI for right-brain tasks.  That's where deep learning comes in. 

Deep learning is a subset of machine learning based on unsupervised learning from unstructured/unlabeled data.  Instead of asking AI a question, giving it metrics, and letting it chug away, you're letting AI be intuitive.  Deep learning is a much more faithful representation of the human brain.  It utilizes a hierarchy of convolutional neural networks to handle linear and non-linear operations so it can think creatively to better problem-solve on potentially various data sets and in unseen environments. 

When a baby is first learning to walk, it might stand up and fall down.  It might then take a small stutter step, or maybe a step that's much too far for its little baby body to handle.  It will fall, fail, and learn.  Fall, fail, and learn.  That's very similar to the goal of deep learning or reinforcement learning. 

What's missing is the intrinsic reward that keeps humans moving when the extrinsic rewards aren't coming fast enough.  AI can beat humans at many games but has struggled with puzzle/platformers because there's not always a clear objective outside of clearing the level. 

A relatively new (in practice, not in theory) approach is to train AI around "curiosity"^[1].  Curiosity helps it overcome that boundary.  Curiosity lets humans explore and learn for vast periods of time with no reward in sight, and it looks like it can do that for computers too! 

OpenAI via Two Minute Papers

Soon, I expect to see AI learn to forgive and forget, be altruistic, follow and break rules, learn to resolve disputes, and even value something that resembles "love" to us.

Exciting  stuff! 

_______

[1] - Yuri Burda, Harri Edwards, Deepak Pathak, Amos Storkey, Trevor Darrell and Alexei A. Efros.  Large-Scale Study of Curiosity-Driven Learning
In ICLR 2019.

A Few Notes from a Trip to Israel

My wife and I just got back from Israel.  We were there to see my son Zachary play Rugby for Team USA in an International Tournament.

 

 

I feel like I need a vacation after this trip.  There were so many things to do and see.

 

Israel is smaller than the smallest state in America ... Yet, consider its importance in the modern world (for example, by looking at the density of its holy sites, historical attractions, technological innovations, Nobel Prize winners, hostile borders, and military presence).

 

It was fascinating how so many religions consider this the Holy Land.  Here is a photo I took of the Wailing Wall and the Dome of the Rock in the Old City of Jerusalem.

 

 

It’s easy to feel closer to “something” while here.

 

Almost everything we saw in Israel is a testament to determination, ingenuity, and faith!

 

With that said, I started to think about how difficult it was to conceive of many of the things they built (considering how difficult it would be to execute or actually build them in the desert, without electricity, etc.). Many of the sites we visited took decades to build ... but have lasted for thousands of years.  Examples include the Fortress at Masada, the Wailing Wall, and the Port of Caesaria.  In my mind, I compare these moonshots to many of our current big, hairy, audacious goals (like reading and writing our DNA, autonomous artificial intelligence, or space exploration).

 

Technologies might change, but human nature has remained surprisingly consistent throughout time.

 

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 17th, 2022

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Biden is Very Unpopular. It May Not Tell Us Much About the Midterms. (FiveThirtyEight)
• The 23 Best New Productivity Apps for 2022. (FastCompany)
• Meet the Man Keeping Blockbuster Alive. (DallasNews)
• Was Warfare Responsible for the Origin of Complex Civilisation? (NewScientist)
• Create an Action Figure Version of Yourself With Hasbro's "Selfie Series". (Hypebae)

 

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• Does Elon Musk Have a Strategy? (HBR)
• JPMorgan CEO Dimon Sums up U.S. Economy in One Paragraph And It Sounds Bad. (CNBC)
• Where Did the Stock Market's $7 Trillion Loss in Value Go? (Marketplace)
• The Speedy Downfall of Rapid Delivery Startups. (Wired)
• Why Hasn't the Russian Economy Tanked Yet? Putin Has Been Preparing for this Moment for Years. (Fortune)

 

 

 

Reinventing The Wheel

When I think about the invention of the wheel, I think about cavemen (even though I know that cavemen did not invent the wheel).

Lots of significant inventions predated the wheel by thousands of years.  For example, woven cloth, rope, baskets, boats, and even the flute were all invented before the wheel.

While simple, the wheel worked well (and still does).  Consequently, the phrase "reinventing the wheel" often is used derogatorily to depict needless or inefficient efforts.

But how does that compare to sliced bread (which was also a pretty significant invention)?

Despite being a hallmark of innovation, it still took more than 300 years for the wheel to be used for travel.  With a bit more analysis, it makes sense. In order to use a wheel for travel, it needs an axle, and it needs to be durable, and loadbearing, requiring relatively advanced woodworking and engineering. 

All the aforementioned products created before the wheel (except for the flute) were necessary for survival.  That's why they came first.

As new problems arose, so did new solutions.

Necessity is the mother of invention. 

Unpacking that phrase is a good reminder that inventions (and innovation) are often solution-centric. 

Too many entrepreneurs are attracted to an idea because it sounds cool. They get attracted to their ideas and neglect their ideal customer's actual needs. You see it often with people slapping "AI" on to their product and pretending it's more helpful. 

If you want to be disruptive, cool isn't enough. Your invention has to be functional, and it has to fix a problem people have (even if they don't know they have it.) The more central the complaint is to their daily lives the better.  

Henry Ford famously said: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”

Innovation means thinking about and anticipating wants and future needs.

Your customers may not even need something radically new. Your innovation may be a better application of existing technology or a reframe of best practices. 

Uber didn't create a new car, they created a new way to get from where you want with existing infrastructure and less friction. Netflix didn't reinvent the movie, they made it easier for you to watch one. 

As an entrepreneur, the trick is build for human nature (meaning, give people what they crave or eliminate the constraint they are trying to avoid) rather than the cool new tech that you are excited about.  

Human nature doesn’t seem to change much … Meanwhile, the pace of innovation continues to accelerate. 

The challenge is to focus on what people want rather than the distraction of possibility.

It gets harder as more things become possible.

We certainly live in interesting times!

"Earl, Honey"

 

My first wife (and mother of my children) Denise is a smart and talented author.  I still remember the first time she asked me to read an early copy of her work.  She never let me do it again. 

That being said, she recently released a new book, Earl, Honey.  The book is loosely based on the real story of her family history.  I enjoyed it.  It's a southern coming-of-age story set in the 1920s - which is not my typical genre.  Nevertheless, it's a poignant story with insight into the human condition, and its dramatic realities remind us how good we have it. 

It's a story she learned, first via her grandmother, long after the events of the book take place.  Those events shaped the lives of generations of her family. 

It's a tough and heart-wrenching Southern Gothic read that covers incest, domestic abuse, and more.  Check it out. 

Here's the book's blurb from Amazon:

"Ever since Pa hit him in the head with the two-by-four, Earl had lived with blinders on. Not real blinders, of course, because that would be foolish. It was his own brain that blinkered him."

Earl Hahn is slow, the last one to catch on to things. Since the day his father hit him in the head with a 2x4 of loblolly pine, he's struggled with a "thickness in his brain." It takes him longer to make the connections others arrive at easily. When his father is prosecuted for the crime of incest, it feels like deliverance for Earl, his mother Lizzie Belle, and the entire Hahn family. Unfortunately, his father's abhorrent actions are not done exacting a price.

Everyone in the household will pay for their patriarch's crimes - no one more than Earl.

So begins a powerful coming-of-age tale about a shy, damaged boy who must overcome unimaginable personal tragedy - both as its victim and its perpetrator. Raw, honest, and filled with heart, Earl, Honey recounts an extraordinary search for redemption amid the perilous world of the 1920s American South.

 

Americans' Top Financial Concern

It's no secret that the economy is slowing - with high inflation rates and rising interest rates. 

According to Mohamed El-Erian, from Queens College at Cambridge University, we're experiencing stagflation - which is when inflation is high but growth is slowing significantly. Theoretically, that leads to recession. 

via visualcapitalist

The Consumer Price Index has also grown by over 8% in the past year, so the American household is facing financial threats from many angles. 

Many feel that the Fed has responded disappointingly recently, and their response (or lack thereof) will be a major dictator of whether we enter a recession. 

I believe that emotions play a role too. When people are afraid, they spend less and hoard what they can to save themselves from an unknown future. They feel anticipatory grief.  And their fear, uncertainty, and doubt ripple through society and our lives. 

Personally, I've weathered my heaviest storms by sailing toward the future regardless of the threats. An abundance mindset is a powerful tool, and as more people feel confident it becomes a macroeconomic trend with real influence. 

I'd encourage you to think about what opportunities there are and will be. There are always seasons of change … Winter eventually comes – and goes. Nevertheless, winter can be a great opportunity to plan your next moves and build the infrastructure to sow more seeds in the coming spring. 

As well, unlike nature, you can personally have springtime while the majority are in winter. We're currently in an A.I. springtime - and I believe that will continue regardless of economic trends. 

Happy to talk about this … Let me know what you are thinking and feeling!