Capitalogix

Finding The Path Of Least Resistance ...

There’s a concept in design and transportation called Desire Paths. 

A Desire Path is the path users take instead of the path intended by the builder. 

Here’s a great example. 

Reddit via itstartswithani

If you are interested, there is an active online community forum that shares examples of Desire Paths. It may give you some ideas and knowing laughs.

I am a creature of habit, and even though much of what I think, feel, or do seems to be happening based on real-time choices or decisions, much of that is just a well-worn rut of unconscious behavior.

As a subtle reminder to my son, who just got married, expect many of your existing Desire Paths to change (even if you don’t want them to).

The lesson ... It’s often easier to account for or take advantage of human nature (or nature) than to fight against it. 

Here is a short video on how this relates to your business and tech adoption. I call it Functional Mapping. Check it out. 

 

The video provides additional depth and detail beyond what’s covered in this post. I encourage you to watch it for a more complete perspective.

Understanding the natural path for both technology and people makes it easier to understand and anticipate the capabilities, constraints, and milestones that define your path forward.   That means you actually have to understand the different types of users and what they expect to do. Here’s a diagram that explains how we build AI-enabled applications.

Each stage is really about the opportunity to scale desired capabilities and automation.

It isn’t really about building the technology; instead, it is about supporting the desire.

You don’t have to get it right. You just have to create momentum in the right direction.   Meaning ... if you can anticipate what is coming, you don’t have to build it. Instead, you should figure out where you want to build or create something that will move things in the right direction to help make that happen or benefit from it when it happens.

You’ve probably heard me talk about how Capabilities become Prototypes. Then, Prototypes become Products. And, ultimately, Products become Platforms.

This model is fractal. That means it works on many levels of magnification or iteration.

What first looks like a product is later seen as a prototype for something bigger.

SpaceX’s goal to get to Mars feels like their North Star right now ... but once it’s achieved, it becomes the foundation for new goals.

This Framework helps you validate capabilities before sinking resources into them. 

It helps you anticipate which potential outcomes you want to accelerate. Rather than simply figuring out the easiest next step … you have to figure out which path is the best next step to your desired outcome.

The world is changing fast! Hope you’re riding the wave instead of getting caught in the riptide!

Onwards.

How Hard Is It To Run A Business In America?

Running a business is hard. Of course, most people know that – but now VisualCapitalist has put together a chart to help visualize that sentiment. 

 

via visualcapitalist

20% of companies tracked failed in the first year ... and only one-third last a decade.

The numbers are worse than that in tech, mining, and oil & gas. Interestingly, those industries receive some of the largest government subsidies. 

But, if you are reading this, chances are that you are a survivor. So, take pride in knowing the odds you've overcome ... and be thankful. 

It is Thanksgiving this week.

Onwards! 

The World Is In $100 Trillion Dollars of Debt ...

The world is swimming in debt ... well, to be more specific ... the world's governments are swimming in debt — $100 Trillion of it. 

via Barrons

To put that in perspective, here's an illustration to give you a sense of the enormity of that number.

via Barrons

The U.S. accounts for just over 34% of that number. Meanwhile, I remember writing about the Republican National Convention marking the moment our national debt crossed the $16 Trillion level in 2012. 

To put the current number in context, if our national debt were divided among individuals, we'd each owe more than $100K ... and if the ten wealthiest people donated their entire fortunes, we'd only have covered about 5%. 

The concept of "Debt" can be confusing to a layman. Most people understand what it means when they take on debt with a local bank, but it can be harder to understand the role debt plays in global economics.

Compounding the confusion, the implications of debt change on a macro level. 

Many worry that our "excessive" government debt levels impact economic stability, the strength of our currency, and unemployment. The national debt can only be reduced through five mechanisms: increased taxation, reduced spending, debt restructuring, monetization of the debt, or default. 

The idea behind our current global debt structure is that if two nations are mutually obligated and dependent on each other, they are less likely to go to war. And that has held relatively true so far. Of course, it's not a perfect system (and it could break down), but it's working better than previous systems (such as the balance of power).

In some ways, it's fake money, so our debts don't seem insurmountable or fatal. Our economy is so reliable that we're allowed to continue borrowing. Debt is an integral part of the economic machine - it can be argued that we wouldn't have money without debt. 

Ray Dalio created a simple (but not simplistic) and relatively easy-to-follow 30-minute animated video that answers the question, "How does the economy really work?"  Click to watch.

via Ray Dalio

The global economy has grown enormously during the last 50 years as developing nations prosper. The average global GDP per capita has gone from ~$1000 to over $10,000 in my lifetime.

So, it makes sense that the amount of debt is also increasing with the size of the money supply required to conduct all the transactions in the global economy.

But, even though you may not need to be immediately worried about that number, I still think it's worth trying to put it in context. 

Humans are notoriously bad at large numbers. It's hard to wrap our minds around something of that scale. We're wired to think locally and linearly, not exponentially (it's one of the reasons I love AI so much). Here are a couple of ways to help you understand a trillion dollars. 

via AskOpinion

First, let's look at spending over time. If you were to spend a dollar every second for an entire day, you would spend $86,400 per day. If you have a million dollars, you can do that for approximately twelve days. With a billion dollars, you can do that for over 31 years. With a trillion dollars, you can do that for 31,000+ years. That means it would take over 300 thousand years to spend the global public debt at that rate. 

I'm sure many of you make over six figures a year. But, it would still take you 10 million years - if you spent none of it - to make $1 trillion, let alone $100 trillion. 

Let's try explaining it through time. Fifty thousand seconds is just under 14 hours. A million seconds was 11 days ago. A billion seconds ago from today? 1992. One trillion seconds is slightly over 31,688 years. That would have been around 29,679 B.C., which is roughly 24,000 years before the earliest civilizations began to take shape. Pretty crazy. 

Here's a video from the 1970s that helps you understand scale through the power of tens and an exploration of our universe. 

Eames Office via BetterExplained

Hopefully, that was disturbing and helpful!

Futurism and The Epidemic of Impossible Statistics

I can’t pretend this is a new phenomenon, but I also can’t pretend it’s not becoming a pet peeve of mine. 

If you’ve been following me for any amount of time, you’ll know I love the future, and I love random statistics. If I’m not talking about AI or entrepreneurship, it’s generally because I’m sharing some interesting chart or statistic. 

At the intersection of my two loves comes a pretty severe issue ...

Bullshit statistics. 

Futurists can’t help themselves. If you repeat something enough times, it begins to feel true. This is a key part of the reality distortion field that surrounds charismatic leaders. Their “functional fiction” becomes useful - not because it’s grounded in fact, but because it enables us to envision what’s possible and work to make it real.

In their defense, nobody minds if you talk about the future broadly. However, a problem arises when directional belief masquerades as fact or science. For example, if someone has thought about something many times, there is a tendency to confidently discuss or project exponential growth with specific timelines and metrics (rather than broadly discussing what will eventually come).

This tendency can make intelligent people seem delusional (or at least out of touch).

Elon Musk is a great example. While he has undeniably been a significant force for innovation and progress in the world, here are a few of the outlandish claims he’s made recently.

• “I think by 2040, probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people.”
• “I feel comfortable saying that AI is getting 10 times better each year.”
• Or, his 70% chance of moving to Mars, and his expectation of colonization starting in 2029.

Some of those may be true, and all of them might turn out to be right ... but they are still wild-ass guesses.

Elon is by no means the only one doing this. 

I routinely make up statistics to help me simplify or understand things better. The key is to acknowledge these “shortcuts” are still essentially educated guesses. Here’s an example. When I imagine how advanced AI will become by the end of my lifetime, I have to consider my current age (and expected lifespan) and how rapidly AI is improving. If I assign the number “100” to how good AI will be at the end of my life, what value would I assign to it now? Turns out, I’d give it a value of three. Of course, there’s always the possibility I could get hit by a bus tomorrow. I’m not a scientist. I haven’t done detailed research about chips or when we move to quantum computing. Realistically, I don’t have to. The precise numbers aren’t what matters here. I don’t take that statistic literally. It’s directional, and it gives a sense of the rate of change and the velocity of invention. In that sense, even though it isn’t factual, it’s useful.

I’d say any serious scientist knows that you can’t reliably predict the future with that level of precision – but it doesn’t take a scientist to know that. 

First, the statistic or shortcut has to pass a simple “sniff” test. Then, you have to account for likely bottlenecks or constraints. Too many of these crazy estimates assume almost infinitely scaling results with no setbacks or limitations in materials or energy. 

Don’t underestimate the value of a good rule-of-thumb or mental model. Moore’s Law is a great example of that. It stemmed from an observation and prediction about the semiconductor industry made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965. A grossly simplified version is that computing power doubles every two years. That has held true for more than 50 years.

I have two Gaping Void illustrations that express fundamental truths about this: “First, Bring Order to Chaos” and “Wisdom Comes from Finer Distinctions.”

Here’s the reality. The future is exciting ... and it’s coming fast. In many ways, it will likely be bigger and cooler than you could have imagined. In other ways, it will radically underperform your expectations. 

I can say that not because I know any more than you, but because I’m focused on what doesn’t change. We’ve had many periods of innovation ... each bigger than the last. It’s likely there will be aspects of the next 20 years no one can predict. But, we know what innovation looks like. 

We’ve been here before. 

As a reminder, if it sounds too good to be true ... there’s a good chance it is. Yet, to pretend there’s not a chance outlandish claims will come true would be to make too precise a claim again. 

In many ways, predicting how your business or product will change is much easier than how the world will change.

The best way to predict the future is to create it - and the most effective way to create it is to focus on the elements within your control.

While it’s important to play an exponential game ... you can start “locally”. 

Food for thought! 

How do U.S. States Compare to Entire Countries?

With Trump's election win, the economy will likely be center stage. 

Crypto boomed post-election, and the S&P and the Nasdaq reached new highs as the Fed cut rates. 

Amidst all the political turmoil, it's easy to overlook how well-positioned we are as a country – compared to the rest of the world. 

VisualCapitalist created a chart comparing countries' GDPs to those of U.S. states. 

 

via visualcapitalist 

At the top of the list, California would be the world's fifth-largest country (replacing India) with its $3.9 Trillion GDP. 

In second place on the list, my home state, Texas, had a $2.6 Trillion GDP. For a little more context:

• If Texas were a country, its GDP would fall just behind France ($3.1 Trillion) and above Brazil and Italy ($2.3 Trillion).
• The Texas GDP is also higher than Canada's $2.24 Trillion GDP.

For a bit of contrast (and extra perspective), Vermont has the lowest GDP in America, comparable to Nepal, which is the world's 101st-largest economy. Yet, Nepal has 29 times more people than Vermont. 

Not too shabby for a place where dairy, forestry, and maple syrup drive the economy.

The NFL's Halftime Hack

When you think of food meant to help athletes, you might think back to when parents would give orange slices or Gatorade to kids during soccer games. Now, fast forward your thinking to the best options available to fuel today's performance athletes. What do you imagine they would use before or during a game? 

I quickly went to protein bars or energy gels (like GU) ... But, I was wrong.

According to research from The Athletic, The NFL's favorite halftime energy booster is now the uncrustable.

What is that? An "uncrustable" is a crustless sandwich consisting of a filling between two layers of crimp-sealed bread. They are convenient, portable, and they tend to come in homey flavors like PB&J. While you can theoretically make one at home, Uncrustables, in this context, are made by Smuckers. 

The Athletic via X 

Based on this math, it's reasonable to assume that NFL teams go through ~4000 Uncrustables a week (on top of however many PB&Js or other sandwiches they consume). Regardless, it is a lot. 

Why the sudden surge in popularity? It's a combination of factors:

• Nostalgia and Comfort: The uncrustable taps into a sense of childhood nostalgia, offering a comforting and familiar taste.
• Nutritional Balance: It provides a balanced blend of carbohydrates for quick energy, fats for sustained power, and protein for recovery.
• Convenience: Pre-packaged and mess-free, uncrustables are perfect for a half-time snack when you have very little time to eat. 

If you think about it, it makes sense. PB&Js are universal. Regardless of geographic region, socioeconomic status, etc. – it's a staple. 

They're easy to digest, convenient, and comforting. Hitting all the marks a professional athlete might be looking for. 

Even in a high-tech world, people still crave simplicity and effectiveness.

I've never had one ... but now I kind of want to try. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure they used to call this a Pop-Tart. But I guess that just makes me seem old.

Getting Educated Before You Vote!

Early voting has started, and if all goes to plan, we’ll know who will be the President on Tuesday, November 5th. Realistically, it’s more likely that you’ll know who you think the President is ... but the country may still be officially undecided.

It has gotten more challenging to exercise truly educated decision-making through the fog of fake news and the growing echo chambers of noise surrounding the candidates (and their policies).

The reality is that most of our news sources are tinted by the lens of their ideology - which is okay. That means they’re appealing to their targeted audience. 

That being said, it may also be worth looking at the same news story from a comparative news source from the other spectrum - or even better, a primary source when it comes to science/economics. I found two tools that help me do this kind of comparison easily – Ground News and Particle.

Ground News is a news aggregation platform that makes it easy to compare news sources, read between the lines of media bias, and break free from algorithms. Key features and benefits include:

• Source comparison: Allows users to see how different news outlets cover the same story, grouped by political leaning (left, center, right)
• Bias distribution: Shows the breakdown of political orientation for news sources covering each story
• AI-generated summaries: Provides summaries of coverage from different political perspectives
• Blindspot feature: Helps users identify stories not widely covered by their preferred sources
• Ownership information: Shows the ownership/financial interests behind news outlets.

Particle is a news reader app that delivers AI-powered news summaries to help you understand more, faster. It was created by an ex-Twitter alumni. The Particle app lets you browse a personalized list of stories to get you up-to-speed at a glance ... or go infinitely deeper to understand various perspectives, broader context, and how a story has unfolded over time. They’re still in private beta. You can sign up for the waitlist here.

Here’s a chart that shows where news sources rank. You can click the image for an interactive version with more details. And, if you’re curious about their methods, click here. 

via Ad Fontes Media

On top of reading various news sources, there are a couple of other tools I like: 

• FiveThirtyEight - Uses graphics to tell visual stories on valid statistics. Named after the number of electoral votes. Also has a visual presidential forecast. 
• RealClearPolitics - Aggregates news from various sources, as well as writing their own opinion pieces. Also has a good visual on the current state of the presidential, senate, and house races. 
• Brittanica ProCon - Tracks the stated positions of politicians on various issues. It can be sorted by candidate and by issue. It also has a quiz you can take to assess which candidate you actually resonate with. 
• Politifact & FactCheck - Both sites fact-check presidential statements, party statements, and more. We know politicians often lie by omission or focus only on the specific stats that are relevant to their point. Fact-checking helps you gain a more holistic picture. 

You are probably sick and tired of all the noise surrounding the election. However, our democratic system thrives on the intricate system of checks and balances powered by information sharing and continuous debate. This process compels the government to remain responsive and accountable to the people. 

Remember, choosing not to vote is still a choice ... and getting out to vote is the only way to make sure that your voice is heard - whether or not you believe in the health of America's democracy. 

 

Multi-Tasking with ChatGPT's Advanced Voice Interface 'or' Unlocking the Power of Voice Agents: A New Frontier in Content Creation

This article was created using a unique process compared to our usual approach. To test ChatGPT’s Advanced Voice capabilities, I decided to talk with it while walking around my neighborhood. I wanted to explore if it could help me be productive while getting fresh air and exercise.

 

What follows is the transcript, with only some light editing and formatting to better provide insight into the process and its outputs.

The embedded mini-article that ChatGPT produced isn’t the main takeaway here. What interests me is the quality of the article, considering how little effort went into creating it. It was so painless and quick that I found myself contemplating how easily I could use this process for other types of productive output. In fact, that concept is a key focus of the mini-article below.

That said, this is just a snapshot of AI’s current capabilities. If I were to repeat this experiment in six months or a year, I’m confident the results would be even more impressive. I'm also confident that if I'd asked it to flesh out the article, I would have been more impressed as well.

I’d probably consider this article “good enough” if I weren’t someone who takes pride in my writing and thinking. Nonetheless, I believe it’s a solid starting point. For the record, my son (who helps write these weekly commentaries) disagrees. He liked our article and its premise – but "hated" what ChatGPT produced.

Sure, some additional work and deeper reflection could make it meaningfully better ... but it’s impressive how quickly and easily we came up with something valuable (that could become even more valuable with a little extra effort).

In conclusion, these content creation capabilities represent a key shift: the content bar will rise, and the minimum standard for what’s acceptable will get higher. But as the bar for “acceptable” rises, I think fewer people will strive for greatness. That’s where you can extend your edge ... if you’re willing to do the extra work.

 

Here is the Chat.

“Hello.”

00:00

Hey there! How’s it going?

“Going pretty well. Today, I want to work on a blog post.”

00:06

That sounds great! What topic are you thinking about for your blog post?

“How voice agents like you can help to create articles in a new way.”

00:07

That’s a fascinating topic! Exploring how voice agents can revolutionize content creation could really capture readers’ imaginations. You could delve into how it streamlines the writing process, adds a conversational tone, and even opens up new possibilities for interactive or personalized content. What angle are you thinking of taking?

“Everything you just said, but I also want to add a piece on instant feedback.”

00:01

Fantastic! So, you could structure the blog post around how voice agents enhance the writing process by making brainstorming more dynamic, offering immediate feedback, and allowing for a more fluid, conversational tone. Is there anything else you want to explore in the post?

“An example where I’m walking around the neighborhood, but instead of simply walking, I talk to the AI agent and have it even ask me questions.”

00:16

So, while strolling through the neighborhood, you engage in a productive dialogue with the AI agent instead of just walking. It can prompt you with questions ...

“And help me consider and refine the post; yes.”

00:020

So, while strolling through the neighborhood, instead of just walking, you engage in a productive dialogue with the AI agent. It can prompt you with questions, helping you refine your ideas and shape your article, all while you’re getting some fresh air and exercise. It’s a great way to maximize productivity in otherwise idle moments. Want to include anything else?

“Yes, a couple of other examples and challenges for the reader to think about other uses of this technology that open up AI and exponential progress in ways that they haven’t thought of before.”

00:21

Great idea! You could include examples like using voice agents for language learning, where they act as conversation partners, or for project management, where they help organize tasks and deadlines through natural conversation. For challenges, invite readers to think about how voice agents might transform areas like mental health support, creative collaborations, or even scientific research. This approach could really spark some innovative thinking!

“Great. Please come up with a detailed outline for what you’re thinking.”

00:08

1. Introduction
   • Brief overview of how voice agents are changing content creation.
   • Mention of the growing role of AI in everyday life.
2. Voice Agents: A New Way to Write
   • How voice agents can turn walking time into productive writing sessions.
   • The ease of having a conversation with an AI to generate content.
3. Benefits of Voice Agents in Content Creation
   • Brainstorming: How voice agents can help generate ideas.
   • Instant Feedback: Getting immediate responses to refine ideas.
   • Conversational Tone: How speaking thoughts out loud can create a more natural writing flow.
4. Examples of Voice Agent Applications
   • Language Learning: Acting as a conversation partner.
   • Project Management: Organizing tasks through dialogue.
   • Mindfulness and Mental Health Support: Providing an outlet for expression and guidance.
   • Creative Collaborations: Assisting in the co-creation of stories or projects.
5. Challenges for the Reader
   • Encourage readers to think of other areas where voice agents could be transformative.
   • Provoke thought on the broader implications of AI in accelerating exponential progress.
6. Conclusion
   • Summarize the key points discussed.

 

“Okay, please write that blog post for an executive or entrepreneur audience, making it simple, engaging, and relevant to their interests.”

00:15

...Got it. Here’s the blog post:

 

Unlocking the Power of Voice Agents: A New Frontier in Content Creation

In today’s fast-paced world, efficiency and innovation are essential, especially for executives and entrepreneurs. One of the most exciting developments in this arena is the rise of voice agents — AI-powered assistants that are transforming how we create content. Imagine turning a simple walk around the neighborhood into a dynamic brainstorming session or a full-fledged article creation process. Let’s explore how voice agents can open up new horizons for you.

 

This image was created using X’s Grok AI to pair with this article.

Voice Agents: A New Way to Write

Picture this: you’re out for your morning walk, and instead of just enjoying the scenery, you’re also creating content. With a voice agent, you can do just that. Engage in a conversation with your AI assistant, and the spoken ideas seamlessly transform into written words.

Benefits of Voice Agents in Content Creation

• Brainstorming

Voice agents excel at helping you brainstorm. Throw ideas at them, and they’ll help you explore different angles, often sparking new thoughts in the process.

• Instant Feedback

Gone are the days of waiting for feedback. With a voice agent, you get instant responses. As you articulate your thoughts, the AI provides real-time feedback, helping you refine your ideas on the fly. It’s like having an editor by your side, 24/7.

• Conversational Tone

Speaking your thoughts can lead to a more natural, conversational tone in your writing. This style is increasingly popular, as it engages readers and makes complex topics more accessible.

Examples of Voice Agent Applications

• Language Learning

Voice agents can act as conversation partners, helping you practice new languages in a low-pressure environment. They can introduce vocabulary, correct pronunciation, and even engage in dialogue, making language learning more interactive and fun.

• Project Management

Organizing tasks and deadlines through natural conversation is another strength of voice agents. Discuss your project needs, and let the AI help you prioritize tasks, set reminders, and keep you on track.

• Mindfulness and Mental Health Support

Voice agents can offer a safe space for expression and reflection. They can guide you through mindfulness exercises, provide mood trackers, or simply lend an empathetic ear, offering support whenever you need it.

• Creative Collaborations

Imagine co-writing a story or developing a project with your AI assistant. Voice agents can contribute ideas, help you overcome creative blocks, and add a new dimension to collaborative efforts.

Some Challenges to Consider

As you consider these applications, think about other areas where voice agents could revolutionize your work or personal life. Could they streamline your decision-making processes? Might they open up new avenues for customer engagement? The potential is vast, limited only by our imagination.

Conclusion

Voice agents are changing how we create content, offering benefits beyond simple convenience. From brainstorming to project management, and from language learning to mental health support, the possibilities are endless. As we continue to integrate AI into our daily lives, voice agents will evolve into increasingly powerful tools for innovation and growth. So, the next time you head out for a walk, consider inviting your AI assistant along — you might just discover your next big idea.

 

“Okay, thanks.”

00:01

You’re welcome! If you need any more help, just let me know.

 

I’d love your feedback on this ... and I’m curious to learn how you’re using AI or want to use AI.

As I’ve said before – we live in interesting times.

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 19th, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Pope Francis and the Vatican Just Created an “AI Bible” Reshaping Faith in the Digital Age. (TheBrighterSide)
• People Think They Already Know Everything They Need to Make Decisions. (ArsTechnica)
• 8 Expert Tips for Getting Started With NotebookLM. (Google)
• Chinese Humanoid Robot is the 'Fastest in the World' Thanks to One Surprising Addition. (UniladTech)
• Copy of US Constitution Found in Filing Cabinet Sells for $9M. So, Somebody Does Still Value the Constitution. (BBC)

 

Trading Links:

• OpenAI's Advantage Over Rival AI Companies Vanishes, Report Finds. (Fortune)
• Nvidia’s Shocking Truth vs. The Dot-Com Bubble. (JoshBelanger)
• The Next Wave of AI Won’t Be Driven by LLMs. Here’s What Investors Should Focus on Instead. (Fortune)
• Amazon Announces Nuclear Power Deals as Tech Giants Scramble for More Clean Energy. (GeekWire)
• ForecastTrader – Futures-Based Prediction Market for the Presidential Election and Other Things. (ForecastTrader)

 

Old School Wisdom Isn't Always So Wise ...

When I first got interested in trading, I relied on traditional sources and old-school market wisdom. For example, I studied the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

While there is some real wisdom in some of those sources, most might as well be horoscopes or Nostradamus-level predictions. Throw enough darts, and one might hit the bullseye.

Traders love patterns ... from head-and-shoulders, to Fibonacci sequences, and even Elliot Wave Theory.

Here’s an example from Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer. In 1875, he released a book titled “Benner’s Prophecies: Future Ups and Downs in Prices,” where he shared the often-referenced chart called the Benner Cycle. Some claim it’s been accurately predicting market fluctuations for over 100 years. Let’s check it out.

 

 

Here’s what it gets right ... markets go up and down ... and that cycle continues. Consequently, if you want to make money, you should buy low and sell high ... It’s hard to call that a competitive advantage.

Mostly, you’re looking at vague predictions with +/- 2-year error bars on a 10-year cycle.

However, it was close to the dotcom bust and the 2008 crash ... so even if you sold a little early, you’d have been reasonably happy with your decision to follow the cycle.

We use a form of cycle analysis in our models … but it’s more rigorous, nuanced, and scientific than the Benner Cycle. The trick is figuring out what to focus on – and what to ignore.

Just as humans are good at seeing patterns, even where there are none ... they tend to see cycles that aren’t anything but coincidences.

In trading, “alpha” measures the excess return created by manager skill rather than luck or movement of the underlying market. As you might guess, both “art” and “science” are involved in that calculation. Profitable traders want to believe it’s a sign of their skill, while losing traders prefer to blame luck.

Nicholas Nassim Taleb pointed out in “Fooled by Randomness” that many successful traders, even those with decades-long careers, were likely more lucky than skillful. They just happened to be at the right firm, on the right trading desk, at the right time.

That said, I believe technology, algorithms, and AI are evolving into Amplified Intelligence - the ability to make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continually improve performance. We’re about to experience a huge asymmetric advantage ... those who understand technology and science (math, statistics, game theory, etc.) will have a real edge over those relying on more primitive techniques or gut instinct.

In a sense, this is another type of cycle.

The best traders I know believe that “smart money” takes “dumb money”. While it may sound harsh, this cycle has played out repeatedly over time. Cutting-edge science can seem like magic to those who don’t understand it. However, these capabilities give a significant advantage to those who possess and use them.

I believe the gap between smart and dumb money is widening. That represents a massive opportunity for those who recognize what’s coming.

This is a reminder that just because an AI chat service recommended something that made money, doesn’t make it a good recommendation. Those models may do some things well ... but they also might just have made a lucky prediction at an opportune time. Making scientific or mathematically rigorous market predictions probably isn’t an area to trust ChatGPT or one of its rivals (at least if you don’t understand how to ask AI to do something that you understand and believe gives you a real edge).

If you don’t know what your edge is, then you don’t really have one. This becomes even more important in the age of AI. It doesn’t matter if AI does what it’s supposed to unless you believe it is doing what you want. 

Be careful out there.