It's unsurprising that Google and social media top the list, but it is interesting to see OpenAI becoming the 17th most visited site last month - with 1.8 billion visits - despite being very new to the scene in comparison to its competitors.
Easy to forget, but also unsurprising is the prevalence of adult websites on this list. One of my most popular articles ever was titled "How Long Does It Take To Get To 50 Million Users?" in it, the takeaway was that Pornhub did it 19 days - faster than anyone else ... up until ChatGPT. Part of the popularity of that article is because Pornhub has very in-depth statistics about its yearly use.
It gets a little old talking about ChatGPT so often ... but it's rightfully taking the world by storm, and the innovations, improvements, and use cases keep coming.
This week, I'm keeping it simple.
VisualCapitalist put together a chart that helps contextualize how well ChatGPT tests on several popular placement tests.
It also shows the comparison between versions 3.5 and 4.
ChatGPT 4 improvements include plugins, access to the internet, and the ability to analyze visual inputs.
Interestingly, there were a couple of places where version 4 didn't improve ... Regardless, it is already outperforming the average human in these scenarios.
Obviously, the ability to perform well on a test isn't a direct analog to intelligence - especially general intelligence. However, it's a sign that these tools can become important partners and assets in your business. Expect that it will take developing custom systems to truly transform your business, but there are a lot of easy wins you can stack by exploring what's out there already.
The takeaway is that you're missing out if you aren't experimenting.
As I experiment with social media in preparation for the launch of my book "Compounding Insights: Turning Thoughts Into Things in the Age of AI," we've started producing short videos where employees ask me questions ... some dumb and some smart.
One we just released asked the question, "Does astrology work?" Here is my response.
The first answer is ... at least not the way many believers wish it would. Nonetheless, many get value from astrology because it helps them think about themselves and others from a different perspective while providing comfort and structure.
It's like a nightlight in the dark. It doesn't make you any safer, but it feels like it.
Unfortunately, like many things ... some people take it too far.
Trading is more accessible than ever before. We've gone from scrums of traders in trading pits to armchair experts investing in real estate, cryptocurrencies, options, and more from the comfort of their couches in their underwear.
With accessibility often comes misuse. And, in this specific case ... astrology.
"Mercury Is In Retrograde ... Should I Sell My Stocks?"
A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts. - Burt Malkiel, “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”
My son brought to my attention an iPhone app - Bull and Moon; "Find stocks whose stars align with yours."
After you create your "astrological investor profile," their "proprietary financial astrology algorithm recommends an optimal portfolio of six stocks and shows your compatibility score with thousands more."
The picks were pedestrian: Oracle, Hasbro, American International Group, Microsoft, Yum! Brands, and FedEx.
The logic and commentary were entertaining. The choices were based on "similarities in business decisions," "shared outlooks on humanity," and "strong mutual success metrics."
Here is an excerpt:
Zach can usually let strong FedEx Corporation lead the relationship, but at the same time, Zach will invest many times over. This relationship will be full of success, understanding on many levels, and a lot of fun.
Since my last name is Getson, I often get "Jetson" at restaurants. As the CEO of a tech company focused on innovative technologies, it somehow feels fitting.
Despite only airing for one season (from 1962-1963), The Jetsons remains a cultural phenomenon. It supposedly takes place in 2062, but in the story, the family's patriarch (George Jetson) was born on July 31, 2022. Not too long ago.
Obviously, this is a whimsical representation of the future - spurred on by fears of the Soviet Union and the space race. But it captured the imagination of multiple generations of kids. Flying cars, talking dogs, robot maids, and food printing ... what's not to love?
I don't intend to dissect the show about what they got right or wrong, but I do want to briefly examine what they imagined based on where we are today.
For example, while flying cars aren't ubiquitous yet (like in the Jetsons), we already have driverless cars. It's likely that by 2062, driverless cars will be pervasive, even if flying cars aren't. But, frankly, who knows? That is still possible.
Meanwhile, both George and Jane work very few hours a week due to the increase in technology. While that's a future we can still envision, despite massive technological improvements, we've chosen to increase productivity (instead of working less and keeping output at 1960 levels). Even with the expected growth of AI, I still believe that humans will choose to pursue purposeful work.
The Jetsons also underemphasize the wireless nature of today's world. George still has to go into the office, and while they have video phones, it's still a piece of hardware connected to a wall, instead of mobile and wireless. 2062 is far enough away that holographic displays are still a very real possibility.
Likewise, while we don't yet have complex robot maids (like Rosie), we already have Roombas... and both AI and Robotics are improving exponentially.
Meanwhile, we are in the process of creating cheap and sustainable food printing and drone delivery services ... which makes the Jetsons look oddly prescient.
And, remember, there are still 40 years for us to continue to make progress. So, while I think it's doubtful cities will look like the spaceports portrayed in the cartoon ... I suspect that you'll be impressed by how much further we are along than even the Jetsons imagined.
Not only is the rate of innovation increasing, but so is the rate at which that rate increases. It's exponential.
Many of the people who read my blog, or are subscribed to my newsletter, are either entrepreneurs or in the financial space. While Charlie Epstein moonlights as an actor/comedian, his day job is in financial services. He's incredibly sharp, very knowledgeable ... and yes, a little quirky.
But that quirkiness is what makes him funny - so much so that you'll be captivated long enough to gain some real value. Charlie does an excellent job teaching people how to do practical things to ensure they have enough money when they retire to live a good life.
More importantly, he helps you think about your mindsets and what you truly want, so you can live the life you've always dreamed of and deserved. And even though I didn't think I needed to learn anything new, I gained a ton of practical value – and you probably will too.
As a bonus, half of the proceeds go toward supporting vets with PTSD.
There aren't many people (or "offers") I'd feel comfortable plugging, but this is one of them. As well, many of the other people I would put in front of you (like Dan Sullivan, Peter Diamandis, and Mike Koenigs) love Charlie as much as I do.
When I first got interested in trading, I used to look at many traditional sources and old-school market wisdom. I particularly liked the Stock Trader's Almanac.
While there is real wisdom in some of those sources, most might as well be horoscopes or Nostradamus-level predictions. Throw enough darts, and one of them might hit the bullseye.
Traders love patterns, from the simple head-and-shoulders, to Fibonacci sequences, and the Elliot Wave Theory.
Here's an example from Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer, in 1875. That year he released a book titled "Benners Prophecies: Future Ups and Down in Prices," and in it, he shared a now relatively famous chart called the Benner Cycle. Some claim that it's been accurately predicting the ups and downs of the market for over 100 years. Let's check it out.
Here's what it does get right ... markets go up, and then they go down ... and that cycle continues. Consequently, if you want to make money, you should buy low and sell high ... It's hard to call that a competitive advantage.
Mostly, you're looking at vague predictions with +/- 2-year error bars on a 10-year cycle.
However, it was close to the dotcom bust and the 2008 crash ... so even if you sold a little early, you'd have been reasonably happy with your decision to follow the cycle.
The truth is that we use cycle analysis in our live trading models. However, it is a lot more rigorous and scientific than the Benner Cycle. The trick is figuring out what to focus on – and what to ignore.
Just as humans are good at seeing patterns where there are none ... they tend to see cycles that aren't anything but coincidences.
This is a reminder that just because an AI chat service recommends something, doesn't make it a good recommendation. Those models do some things well. Making scientific or mathematically rigorous market predictions probably aren't the areas to trust ChatGPT or one of its rivals.
Humans are wired to think locally and linearly ... because that's what it took to survive in a pre-industrial age. However, that leaves most of us very bad at predicting technology and its impact on our future.
To put the future of technology in perspective, it's helpful to look at the history of technology to help understand what an amazing era we live in.
Our World In Data put together a great chart that shows the entire history of humanity in relation to innovation.
3.4 million years ago, our ancestors supposedly started using tools. 2.4 million years later they harnessed fire. 43,000 years ago (almost a million years later) we developed the first instrument, a flute.
That's an insane amount of time. Compare that to this:
In 1903, the Wright Brothers first took flight ... 66 years later, we were on the moon.
That's less than a blink in the history of humankind, and yet we're still increasing speed.
Technology is a snowball rolling down a mountain, picking up steam, and now it's an avalanche being driven by AI.
But innovation isn't only driven by scientists. It's driven by people like you or me having a vision and making it into a reality.
Even though I'm the CEO of an AI company, I don't build artificial intelligence myself ... but I can envision a bigger future and communicate that to people who can. I also can use tools that help me automate and innovate things that help free me to focus on more important ways to create value.
The point is that you can't let the perfect get in the way of the good. AI's impact is inevitable. You don't have to wait to see where the train's going ... you should be boarding.
It's interesting to look at what they strategically got right compared to what was tactically different.
In a 1966 interview, Marshall McLuhan discussed the future of information with ideas that now resonate with AI technologies. He envisioned personalized information, where people request specific knowledge and receive tailored content. This concept has become a reality through AI-powered chatbots like ChatGPT, which can provide customized information based on user inputs.
Although McLuhan was against innovation, he recognized the need to understand emerging trends to maintain control and know when to "turn off the button."
In 1966, media futurist Marshall McLuhan envisioned a form of digital research eerily similar to the customized queries now answered by AI. Then he makes a surprising admission about why he studies technological change—with a lesson I think many need to hear. pic.twitter.com/yEBJv95GvP
While not all predictions are made equal, we seem to have a better idea of what we want than how to accomplish it.
The farther the horizon, the more guesswork is involved. Compared to the prior video on predictions from the mid-1900s, this video on the internet from 1995 seems downright prophetic.
There's a lesson there. It's hard to predict the future, but that doesn't mean you can't skate to where the puck is moving. Even if the path ahead is unsure, it's relatively easy to pick your next step, and then the step in front of that. As long as you are moving in the right direction and keep taking steps without stopping, the result is inevitable.
Pornhub via Capitalogix Blog
Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - June 4th, 2023
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.
Lighter Links:
Trading Links:
Posted at 09:49 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Gadgets, Healthy Lifestyle, Ideas, Just for Fun, Market Commentary, Personal Development, Religion, Science, Sports, Trading, Trading Tools, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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