Last week, I wrote about various “indicators” for markets that just don’t make sense — like the Superbowl Indicator. The lesson from those indicators is that we crave order and look for signs that make markets seem a little bit more predictable, even where there are none. This is especially true in complex systems like the stock market, where so many variables and factors are at play that it can be difficult to predict or explain why things happen.
Now, it doesn't mean there aren't patterns - and benefits to watching them. Warren Buffet has proven that. In order to improve your understanding of "markets" you can focus on the fundamentals of individual companies and industries rather than broader market trends. By conducting thorough research and analysis of financials, management, and competitive landscapes of companies, you can make informed decisions about which stocks to buy or sell. Another way to improve your understanding of the market is to focus on long-term trends and avoid getting caught up in short-term fluctuations. It's about focusing on what doesn't change - instead of what does. But, ultimately, you should realize that if you don't know what your edge is ... you don't have one. And, market movements are getting faster, more automated, and harder to predict over time, not less.
With that said, Wall Street is still inundated with theories that attempt to predict the performance of the stock market and the economy. More people than you would hope, or guess, attempt to forecast the market based on gut instinct, ancient wisdom, and prayers.
While hope and prayer are good things ... they aren’t good trading strategies.
It’s true that there are many indices and economic indicators that can provide valuable insights into the workings of economies and markets. While some of these indices may seem “out there,” or even frivolous, they can often shed light on underlying economic trends and realities.
One example of this is the Big Mac Index, which is published annually by The Economist. This index is based on the idea of purchasing power parity, which suggests that exchange rates should adjust to ensure that the price of a basket of goods is the same in different countries. The Big Mac Index uses the price of a McDonald’s Big Mac burger as a proxy for this basket of goods. It compares the price of a Big Mac in different countries to determine whether currencies are overvalued or undervalued.
While the Big Mac Index is not a perfect measure of purchasing power parity, it can provide valuable insights into the relative value of different currencies and the economic factors that influence exchange rates. By looking beyond the headline numbers, and digging into the underlying data and trends, investors and economists can gain a deeper understanding of the forces shaping the global economy.
Ultimately, the key to using economic indicators like the Big Mac Index is to approach them with a critical eye and a willingness to dig deeper. By looking beyond the surface level and using data-driven analysis to understand the underlying trends and drivers of economic performance, we can gain a more accurate picture of the economic realities shaping the world around us.
In 2020, when I last talked about the Big Mac Index, the Swiss Franc was 20.9% overvalued based on the PPP rate. That math was based on the idea that, in Switzerland, a Big Mac costs 6.50 francs. In the U.S., it costs $5.71. The implied exchange rate was 1.14, and the actual exchange rate was 0.94 - thus, 20.9 was overvalued. At the time, the most undervalued was South Africa.
As of the end of 2022, The Swiss Franc is still the most overvalued but has now increased to a whopping 35.4%. Meanwhile, the South African rand has “increased” to only 45.9% undervalued, making the Egyptian Pound the most undervalued currency at 65.6%.
Click the image below to see the interactive graphic.
via The Economist
Obviously, there are more factors at play if something can be significantly overvalued or undervalued for multiple years without significant consequences.
It is not meant to be the most precise gauge, but it works as a global standard because Big Macs are global and have consistent ingredients and production methods. It’s lighthearted enough to be a good introduction for college students learning more about economics.
You can read more about the Big Mac index here or read the methodology behind the index here.
The Benner Cycle: Making Market Predictions
When I first got interested in trading, I used to look at many traditional sources and old-school market wisdom. I particularly liked the Stock Trader's Almanac.
While there is real wisdom in some of those sources, most might as well be horoscopes or Nostradamus-level predictions. Throw enough darts, and one of them might hit the bullseye.
Traders love patterns, from the simple head-and-shoulders, to Fibonacci sequences, and the Elliot Wave Theory.
Here's an example from Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer, in 1875. That year he released a book titled "Benners Prophecies: Future Ups and Down in Prices," and in it, he shared a now relatively famous chart called the Benner Cycle. Some claim that it's been accurately predicting the ups and downs of the market for over 100 years. Let's check it out.
Here's what it does get right ... markets go up, and then they go down ... and that cycle continues. Consequently, if you want to make money, you should buy low and sell high ... It's hard to call that a competitive advantage.
Mostly, you're looking at vague predictions with +/- 2-year error bars on a 10-year cycle.
However, it was close to the dotcom bust and the 2008 crash ... so even if you sold a little early, you'd have been reasonably happy with your decision to follow the cycle.
The truth is that we use cycle analysis in our live trading models. However, it is a lot more rigorous and scientific than the Benner Cycle. The trick is figuring out what to focus on – and what to ignore.
Just as humans are good at seeing patterns where there are none ... they tend to see cycles that aren't anything but coincidences.
This is a reminder that just because an AI chat service recommends something, doesn't make it a good recommendation. Those models do some things well. Making scientific or mathematically rigorous market predictions probably aren't the areas to trust ChatGPT or one of its rivals.
Be careful out there.
Posted at 08:39 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Ideas, Just for Fun, Market Commentary, Science, Trading, Trading Tools | Permalink | Comments (0)
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