Capitalogix

The Shapes of Stories

Seemingly complex things are often simpler when understood.

This applies to many things.

For example, great writing is diverse and nuanced ... but its underlying structure isn't.

Kurt Vonnegut wrote a number of "Classics", including Cat's Cradle, Slaughterhouse-Five, and The Sirens of Titan.

For all his great writing, and all the complexities, he simplified stories into a few basic story shapes.

Here is a graphic that explains the concept.

Here is a 17-minute video of Vonnegut discussing his theory of the Shape of Stories.  You can get the basic concepts in the first 7 minutes ... but he is witty and the whole video is worth watching. 

 

 

You can explore a bit more elaborate version of his "Shapes of Stories" from his rejected Master's thesis from the University of Chicago.

Vonnegut's idea was fulfilled not too long ago--a computer was used to identify story shapes. Researchers extracted the emotional trajectories of 1,327 stories and discovered that there are six core emotional arcs:

• Rags to riches (a rise)
• Tragedy (a fall)
• Man in a hole (fall, then a rise)
• Icarus (rise, then a fall)
• Cinderella (rise, then a fall, then a rise)
• Oedipus (fall, then a rise, then a fall)

 For more on writing from Kurt Vonnegut:

• How To Write With Style
• Eight Rules For Writing Fiction

 

Why We Don't See Aliens

This week, a former senior Israeli military official proclaimed that we've been contacted by Aliens from a Galactic Federation - and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together. 

How naive to think that election news would be the craziest stuff you'd hear this holiday season ...

Back to aliens (for the record, that was a sentence I haven't typed before).  There are many stories (or theories) about how we have encountered aliens before and just kept them secret. In contrast, I have found it more realistic and thought-provoking to consider theories about why we haven't seen aliens until now.

For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high-probability estimates for their existence. 

To simplify the issue, there are billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies), which are similar to our Sun.  Consequently, there must be some probability of some of them having Earth-like planets. It isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than us. Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies - interstellar travel isn't absurd. 

Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and length of time we are talking about) ... it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb (who is a particle physicist) tackles that in his book and in this TED Talk.   

 

via TED

In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

1. Habitability and stability of their planet
2. Building blocks of life 
3. Technological advancement
4. Socialness/Communication technologies

But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, moons' effect on climate, etc. 

Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life - and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks. 

What do you think?

Here are some other links I liked on this topic.  There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

• 75 Reasons We Don't See Aliens 
• Wait But Why: The Fermi Paradox
• A New Theory on Why We Haven't Found Aliens Yet
• A List of Solutions to The Fermi Paradox
• Dissolving the Fermi Paradox, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University

To Infinity and Beyond!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 13th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Google Reveals the Most Searched Terms of 2020 - You'll Probably Guess a Few. (TechRadar)
• Ted Talk: The Strength In Weak Leaders. (TED)
• Microsoft Files Patent For a Chatbot that 'Could' Become the 'Twin' of a Deceased Person. (Entrepreneur)
• Seattle Tech Leaders Including Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella are Investing In Cricket Teams. (GeekWire)
• The Public Just Haven't Grasped What Happens When Hospitals Get Too Full — Covid-19 In America. (Economist)

 

Trading Links:

• Congress Just Voted To Spend $10 Billion On A.I, and Quantum Computing. (Protocol)
• Intel Not Inside: How Mobile Chips Overtook the Semiconductor Giant. (Wall Street Journal)
• The Best-Managed Companies of 2020 — And How They Got that Way. (Wall Street Journal)
• Tesla Tells Employees Model S and X Production Will Shut Down For 18 Days. (CNBC)
• Global Ranking: 20 Countries Where House Prices Rose Most In 2020. (UK)

Are We Alone In The Universe?

Information Is Beautiful has an interactive data visualization to help you decide if we're alone in the universe. 

As usual, for them, it is well done, fun, and informative. 

For the slightly geeky amongst us, the model lets you adjust the estimate by playing with two equations: the Drake equation and the Seager equation.

The Drake equation estimates how many detectable extraterrestrial civilizations exist in our galaxy and then in the Universe based on factors like habitable planets, change of life, and then intelligent life, and then the amount of time a civilization sends signals into space. 

The Seager equation is a modern take on the equation focusing on bio-signatures of life that we can currently detect - for example, the number of observable stars/planets, what % have life, and then % chance of detectable bio-signature gas. 

 

via Information Is Beautiful

For both equations, Information Is Beautiful lets you look at various default options but also playing with your own numbers to do the math. 

For example, the skeptic default answer for Drake's equation shows 0.0000062 communicating civilizations in our galaxy and which is still 924,000 in the universe. The equivalent for Seager's equation shows 0.0009000 planets with detectable life in our "galactic neighborhood" and 135,000,000 planets in our universe. 

Even with the "lowest possible" selection chosen, Drake's equation still shows 42 communicating civilizations (Douglas Adams, anyone?) in the universe.

 

via Information Is Beautiful

One of the most interesting numbers (and potentially influential numbers for me) is the length of time a civilization sends signals into space. Conservative numbers are 420 years, but optimistic numbers are 10,000+. 

If any aliens are reading this ... don't worry, I won't tell.  But, we will find out if you voted in the last election.

Do Candles Smell Worse?

Covid-19 rates are still rising in many places, and there's an unexpected consequence ...

Candle companies are getting much more negative reviews. Angry people everywhere seem to be reporting that the candles have no smell!  With Covid, perhaps they need to check if they've lost their sense of smell or taste (and whether they have a mild fever). 

Katie Petrova, on Twitter, did some research to check if there was really a correlation. 

via Katie Petrova

And the results were as expected. In 2020, consumer ratings for scented candles declined much more than unscented candles, and there are spikes in reviews mentioning lack of scent during months with increased cases. 

Since the beginning of this year, the proportion of reviews mentioning lack of scent grew from < 2% in January to close to 6% in November.

That being said, unscented candle reviews are lowering too ... which makes you think about the confounding variables. Are sales simply increasing to the point where reviews (and thus negative reviews) are increasing? Is it a result of people being bored/frustrated at home?

I'd be curious to see how much candle (or other home scent improving products) purchases increased during 2020.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 29th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• The Hidden Habits of Genius. (LeadershipNow)
• The Best Inventions of 2020. (Time)
• Are We the Same Person Throughout Our Lives? In Essence, Yes. (NeuroScienceNews)
• For the Best Deals On Almost Anything, Check these 3 Sites First. (FastCompany)
• A Bot Made Frank Sinatra Cover Britney Spears. YouTube Removed It Over Copyright Claims. (Futurism)

 

Trading Links:

• Foot Traffic Drops By Half At US Stores On 'Grey' Friday. (FT)
• Why Institutions Suddenly Give a Damn About Bitcoin. (CoinTelegraph)
• The McKinsey State of AI In 2020 Report Finds AI Drives Revenue. (Forbes)
• 2020 Was a 'Once-in-a Lifetime Event In the Adoption of Modern Technology'. (BusinessInsider)
• Priced For More Than Perfection, Markets Have Dismissed Economic Reality. (Forbes)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 22nd, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Every Business is a Software Whose Success is Defined By Data. (YourStory)
• Future of AI: Here's How Machines Become Sentient. (TheNextWeb)
• How China Could Shape the Future of Technology. (BBC)
• Dr. Fauci On Public Trust In Science. (HastingsCenter)
• Costco Will Deliver a 12-Month Long Private Flight Membership To Your Email If You Pay $17,500. (BusinessInsider)

 

Trading Links:

• If You Aren't Using AI, You're Falling Behind According to the US Patent and Trademark Office. (Forbes)
• Boom Times Have Returned for Venture-Backed Start-Ups. (CNBC)
• Venture Returns. (Points & Figures)
• Nasdaq-100 Stumbles Near Dot-Com Era Record Versus Dow. (TheOneDave)
• Top 10 Richest People In the World (1990-2019) | Visualization From Forbes Richest People. (YouTube)

 

What Hacking Isn't

We've talked a lot about hyperbole in the news recently – and, unfortunately, it isn't limited to politics. 

People seek things that engage and entertain.  Consequently, other people's business is to provide things that engage and entertain ... even if those things aren't necessarily accurate or truthful.

For example, I've seen many "silly" artificial intelligence and cybersecurity references on tv shows or the news. These are obviously "hot topics."  But, shocking simplifications are used because most people aren't technical enough to understand real examples.

In AI, it's pretty easy to notice because you'll see killer robots or humans losing their jobs and being left with nothing to do. 

Cybersecurity is tough for "normies" to get as well.  For a laugh, check out this clip from NCIS. 

 

via YouTube

On top of the gibberish, and the unrealistic imagery on what a hacking attempt would look like, do you think two people typing on the same keyboard would be effective?  And, reminiscent of a "peek-a-boo" game you play with babies, unplugging the monitor won't stop a hacker (it will only hide the screen from you). 

Makes for good TV, though.

Sometimes you just have to turn your brain off. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 15th, 2020

The  upcoming holiday season seems a little different this year.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How Your Life Will Be Measured after You Die. (ThriveGlobal)
• Shapeshifting Materials Could Transform Our World inside Out. (Discover)
• Alexa Can Now Guess What You Want before You Even Ask for It. (ZDNet)
• Physics Can Solve Key Challenges Facing AI, Study Finds. (JPost)
• The Greatest Competitive Advantage May Not Be What You Think. (Entrepreneur)

 

Trading Links:

• Beyond Buffett – Does Value Investing Still Work? (Economist)
• Quant Shock that Never Could Happen' Hits Wall Street Models. (Bloomberg)
• The Overnight Business Boom that Took a Century. (Wall Street Journal)
• Biden's First 100 Days: Here's What to Expect. (NPR)
• The Pandemic is Revealing a New Form of National Power. (The Atlantic)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 8th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Video: An Exclusive Look inside Microsoft's Election Security War Room'. (ABCNews)
• Forget Traditional Election Maps – This is What the US Vote Really Looks Like. (NYPost)
• Taught by Nature: New Technology Inspired by the Animal Kingdom. (Flipboard)
• Psychedelic Psilocybin 101: The Science of Magic Mushrooms. (Flipboard)
• Want to Calm Your Anxiety in Just 8 Minutes? Neuroscience Says Take a Deep Breath and Listen to This. (Inc)
  
  

Trading Links:

• Texas Becomes First State to Top One Million COVID-19 Cases. (24/7 Wall St)
• Fears of Transition 'Chaos'. (Barrons)
• FTC Likely to Sue Facebook on Antitrust Violations by End of November. (Politico)
• Here Comes the next IPO Wave. (TechCrunch)
• Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Swings Back into Action, Spending a Net $4.8 Billion on Stocks and a Record $9 Billion on Buybacks in the 3Rd Quarter. (BusinessInsider)