Capitalogix

Setting Yourself Up For A Successful 2021

We're about to usher in a new year – along with the promise and pressure of filling its blank slate.

2020 is nearly over.  What a strange year it was!

With 2021, we get a fresh start.  

We look forward to what we will achieve – even though history says we rarely achieve everything we hope for.  Meanwhile, paradoxically, it is also true that we rarely achieve things we don’t hope for.  So, Hope!  It may not be a reliable strategy ... but it beats the alternative.

Personally, I’m excited about 2021.

Despite the abnormal market and uncertain political climate, we're clearly moving toward increased stability compared to 2020.

Even though I expect some volatility, we have become more accustomed to handling it (and we've become better at transforming its strategic byproducts into strategic benefits).

On a different topic, think about how much progress we've made and how different the "new normal" has become.  For example, think about Zoom and remote work or how quickly our economy migrated online.  On many levels, what we are doing now seemed like science fiction even just a few years ago.

We are living in an age of exponential technologies and exponential possibilities.

I commissioned this image, from GapingVoid, to remind our team to keep shooting higher.

 

 

Resilience, resourcefulness, and a worthy goal are the keys to many entrepreneurial success stories.

In the spirit of New Year's Resolutions – I’ll add that a deliberate approach to goals is important too.

I'm a big fan of picking a Big Hairy Audacious Goal (sometimes called a "BHAG") and taking actions that move you in that direction. 

I'm also a big fan of Strategic Coach's Bigger Future exercise.  It is a 20-year planning exercise where you layout your commitments and goals to yourself, your family, your career, and your legacy. 

While doing this, I realized that my ideal next 20 years involves taking Capitalogix to the next level (and beyond) through collaboration, cooperation, and joint ventures. 

Once you know what your long-term goal is, it is relatively easy to plan out the steps you need to achieve that goal.  Achieving smaller goals reinforces success, builds momentum, and makes continued progress feel more likely.

Extra points if you make them SMARTs (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Time-Sensitive). 

Actions speak louder than words, and your words can distract you. 

If your goal is to win first place at a competition, focus on the metrics of a first-place finish instead of the medal. This makes the goal concrete and sets an internal locus of control on your victory.  This also means that you don't need to tell others your goal too soon. Studies show that when you announce your intention to a goal in public, you decrease the likelihood of you succeeding. 

It's okay to misstep, it's okay to get stuck - but recognize where you are, what you've done, and move forward. 

Often the most frustrating thing that any of us feel on a regular basis is to want something really bad, and not be able to get it right away.

The world makes that hard - media everywhere is peddling immediate gratification, but it results in higher rates of obesity, drug abuse, and depression. 

Don't be fooled.  Overnight successes are rarely actually overnight successes.

It's also important (once you've accomplished your goal) to set new goals. 

Over the next 20 years, there are a ton of people I want to impact and a lot of goals I want to accomplish. Capitalogix is the way I intend to do that.

It hasn't always been easy - but building Capitalogix has been an intensely rewarding passion.

I look forward to you all being a part of it as well. Here's to a successful 2021 and an even more successful 2041.  

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 13th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Google Reveals the Most Searched Terms of 2020 - You'll Probably Guess a Few. (TechRadar)
• Ted Talk: The Strength In Weak Leaders. (TED)
• Microsoft Files Patent For a Chatbot that 'Could' Become the 'Twin' of a Deceased Person. (Entrepreneur)
• Seattle Tech Leaders Including Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella are Investing In Cricket Teams. (GeekWire)
• The Public Just Haven't Grasped What Happens When Hospitals Get Too Full — Covid-19 In America. (Economist)

 

Trading Links:

• Congress Just Voted To Spend $10 Billion On A.I, and Quantum Computing. (Protocol)
• Intel Not Inside: How Mobile Chips Overtook the Semiconductor Giant. (Wall Street Journal)
• The Best-Managed Companies of 2020 — And How They Got that Way. (Wall Street Journal)
• Tesla Tells Employees Model S and X Production Will Shut Down For 18 Days. (CNBC)
• Global Ranking: 20 Countries Where House Prices Rose Most In 2020. (UK)

Trends To Watch Due To The Pandemic

The pandemic has affected many things beyond basic health. Increasingly, I see research showing meaningful increases in pornography consumption, suicide rates, and a host of other trends that are shaping our world today ... but, in the longer-term, it is also affecting the face of tomorrow. 

Flexible Workplaces

In May, after only several months of lock-down, I was surprised how many businesses decided that they had no intention of ever requiring their employees to come back into the office. 

As we close in on a year in the pandemic, I am surprised how easily we adapted to the new normal.  Even with a vaccine in sight, I suspect many of the adaptations will remain.

Personally, I like going to the office.  Most days, I still do ... even though a tiny fraction of our people are there.

With that said, I know that our business matured.  We are better at the skills, tools, and mindsets that make remote work possible or profitable. We've gotten better at deciding what's a meeting (versus an e-mail or an online chat). People are working hours that are more comfortable for them, and we see meetings happen both earlier and later than they used to, before the quarantine. 

As a macro trend, we also see a flight from urban centers.

 

via visualcapitalist

I keep hearing about people moving far from their work-places.  Ultimately, they decided that remote work enables a new form of freedom for them – to live where they want, regardless of what they do (or who they do it for).

Over time, I'm curious how a remote workforce will impact the quality and the amount of work done. 

Adding to my initial concerns, flexible workspaces cause (or exacerbate) other issues, including cybersecurity, digital collaboration, defining the new workday, and a host of other challenges. 

Digital Explosion

I remember the early 2000s and the distress I felt watching how many time cycles my son "wasted" being on his phone (which to me, at that time, seemed like "all-the-time"). But, in retrospect, that was nothing. 

Flash forward to 2019, and everything was even more "digital" and "smart."  Refrigerators, exercise bikes, billboards, and more all had screens, and 2-year-olds were already digitally literate. "All-the-time" took on a whole new meaning.

Somehow, the pandemic still took our reliance on the digital world (or our augmented alternate reality) to the next level. 

 

via Alaska DHSS

Kids are also getting less physical activity and human contact, and spending much more time online.  Contributing to this is the reality that much of their academics have been forced online.  Likewise, adults also are shifting more of their attention and activity cycles to the digital world.

Continued screen-time increases coincide with video game revenue spiking and Internet traffic increasing by more than 50% worldwide. 

As the world opens up, I still expect digital reliance numbers to stay above pre-COVID benchmarks. People's reliance on digital to feed their need for information, entertainment, and companionship is growing.

Changing Business Landscape

Starting with consumers, we've seen a massive movement toward frictionless and touchless payment. Even physical stores are prioritizing getting in and out without having to deal with another human. In addition, there's a massive move toward delivery services for groceries and meals. 

On top of the changes to normal retail services, reliance on online shopping has increased, while the time it takes for electronic purchases to your door has decreased. Combined, these factors will terraform commerce.  Consequently, this year was likely an inflection point for e-commerce penetration ... and, from that perspective, life will never be the same again.

 

via visual capitalist

Despite the growth of online retail, many small businesses that couldn't move online are struggling, and many have already gone under. 

Which leads to the next trend ...

Increasing Wealth Stratification

While small business owners and front line workers have been struggling, billionaires saw their wealth increase by over half a trillion dollars. 

Part of this is due to government aid toward large companies, part of it is due to tax laws, and part of it is due to the digital rise mentioned in the previous section. The big tech companies were already thriving, and the pandemic created a positive inflection point. 

Despite those gains, the pandemic hit millennials and small businesses hard. 

 

via Morning Consult

The longer the economy is affected by COVID-19 measures, the larger the wealth inequality will grow, and the more people you can expect looking for government assistance. The strong will thrive while others will suffer increasingly from learned helplessness.

Obviously, the 2020 quarantine has created impacts in many other areas – including family stress, community isolation, political radicalization, etc. Moreover, these effects won't be isolated to this year - and we should expect many to impact our "new normal" for years to come.

Some people consider this a challenge. I think it's the playing field. It's going to be true for everyone. What you make it mean, and what you choose to do, it is up to you.  Some will be like a cork, floating on the water, going where the tide takes it. Others will recognize the situation as an opportunity and thrive.

The impact has been global, but the choices you make are local ... and they are still your to make.

Here is to making 2021 our best year yet!

Onwards!

Chunking Higher

We've been doing annual planning for 2021.

The meetings are going well.  There is a lot of back-and-forth idea sharing, negotiating, and priority setting.

Nonetheless, I had a sneaking suspicion that sometimes what seemed like a dialogue, was really multiple monologues. 

The reason for the disconnect (or misconnect) was that the participants had fundamental beliefs, at a higher level than we were discussing, that were at odds with each other. 

I shot this video to explain how to fix that issue.   

The short answer is to chunk high enough that you truly start from a place of agreement.  Exploring distinctions from there is relatively easy.

 

 

 

I'll add one more concept for good measure ... Start with the end in mind. Alignment happens in stages.  Before you can truly get alignment on what to do next, you have to get agreement and alignment about where you are and where you want to go.

With that said, another important component of meaningful communication is a shared understanding of common language.  Words can mean different things to different people.  Simply agreeing on a "word" is different than agreeing on a common meaning.

To summarize these concepts:

1. Make sure you have a common language
2. Begin with the end in mind
3. Start with the highest level of agreement
4. Make distinctions from there

Hope that helps.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 29th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• The Hidden Habits of Genius. (LeadershipNow)
• The Best Inventions of 2020. (Time)
• Are We the Same Person Throughout Our Lives? In Essence, Yes. (NeuroScienceNews)
• For the Best Deals On Almost Anything, Check these 3 Sites First. (FastCompany)
• A Bot Made Frank Sinatra Cover Britney Spears. YouTube Removed It Over Copyright Claims. (Futurism)

 

Trading Links:

• Foot Traffic Drops By Half At US Stores On 'Grey' Friday. (FT)
• Why Institutions Suddenly Give a Damn About Bitcoin. (CoinTelegraph)
• The McKinsey State of AI In 2020 Report Finds AI Drives Revenue. (Forbes)
• 2020 Was a 'Once-in-a Lifetime Event In the Adoption of Modern Technology'. (BusinessInsider)
• Priced For More Than Perfection, Markets Have Dismissed Economic Reality. (Forbes)

What Do We Care About?

In a time of unrest, partisan politics, and situational anxiety ... it is important to remember how much we share (as opposed to what separates us).

VisualCapitalist put together a great graphic on the top 56 values that drive human behavior. For the top 15, it also shows you where they rank based on country. 

1. Family
2. Relationships
3. Financial Security
4. Belonging
5. Community
6. Personal Growth
7. Loyalty
8. Religion/Spirituality
9. Employment Security
10. Personal Responsibility
11. Basic Needs
12. Harmony
13. Health/Well-Being
14. Experiences
15. Respect

Each individual's ranking of the 56 (15 shown above)  may be different, nevertheless, this chart helps highlight what is really important to us all. 

Click the image to see the full infographic. 

via VisualCapitalist

The ranking of the values changes across cultures and nations, but family emerged as the most important value consistently, and other "connectedness" values consistently ranked high. 

Humans are emotional creatures (with the ability to think) rather than thinking beings (with the ability to feel).  Ultimately, we are social creatures in a social society. From a Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs standpoint, security often comes first, but connection comes right after that. 

It's easy to focus on our differences, but it's more important to find the common ground. That's where discussion and progress happen. 

Onwards!

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 8th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Video: An Exclusive Look inside Microsoft's Election Security War Room'. (ABCNews)
• Forget Traditional Election Maps – This is What the US Vote Really Looks Like. (NYPost)
• Taught by Nature: New Technology Inspired by the Animal Kingdom. (Flipboard)
• Psychedelic Psilocybin 101: The Science of Magic Mushrooms. (Flipboard)
• Want to Calm Your Anxiety in Just 8 Minutes? Neuroscience Says Take a Deep Breath and Listen to This. (Inc)
  
  

Trading Links:

• Texas Becomes First State to Top One Million COVID-19 Cases. (24/7 Wall St)
• Fears of Transition 'Chaos'. (Barrons)
• FTC Likely to Sue Facebook on Antitrust Violations by End of November. (Politico)
• Here Comes the next IPO Wave. (TechCrunch)
• Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Swings Back into Action, Spending a Net $4.8 Billion on Stocks and a Record $9 Billion on Buybacks in the 3Rd Quarter. (BusinessInsider)

Getting Rid of Cognitive Biases

We make decisions all the time.  To make that easier, we use shortcuts to make processing more efficient, more effective, and more certain.

At least it feels that way to us.

Mental heuristics are great - they do often save us time or effort.  And, for many people, they enable better decision making. But, as with any generalization, there are exceptions that can be dangerous. 

That's where cognitive biases come in; we have biases toward how we remember things, how we view ourselves, how we make decisions, and what we make things mean.

We're all victims to them, to some extent. But hopefully, by understanding them and becoming aware of them,  we can limit their impact. 

Here's a great infographic with 50 of the most common cognitive biases. Click to see the full-size image. 

via VisualCapitalist 

For a bigger infographic with 180+ cognitive biases, click here. 

 

Are You Smart?

I know a lot of smart people.

I also know a lot of people that think they're smarter than they are (even the smart ones ... or, perhaps, especially the smart ones). 

It's common.  So common, in fact, that there's a name for it.  The Dunning-Kruger Effect.

Have you ever met someone who's so confident about what they think that they believe they know more than an expert in a field? That's the Dunning-Kruger effect. It's defined as a cognitive bias where a lack of self-awareness prevents someone from accurately assessing their own skills. 

Here's a graph that shows the general path a person takes on their journey towards mastery of a subject. 

via NC Soy

The funny thing about the above image... it's actually not a literal part of the paper on the Dunning-Kruger Effect. But it's now so commonplace that people report that chart as fact. A fitting example of the effect. 

David Fitzsimmons via Cagle Cartoons

In our daily lives, it can often be funny or frustrating to see the "victims" of this effect, but I'd warn you that we all have times where we're prone to this; and it's a sign of ignorance, not stupidity. 

This is a problem with all groups and all people. Even if you already know about the cognitive bias resulting from the Dunning-Kruger Effect, you're not immune. 

It should be a reminder to reflect inward - not cast aspersions outward. 

Two different ways that people get it wrong, first is to think about other people and it’s not about me. The second is thinking that incompetent people are the most confident people in the room, that’s not necessarily true.

Usually, that shows up in our data, but they are usually less confident than the really competent people but not that much... - David Dunning

To close out, even this article on the Dunning-Kruger presents a simplification of its findings. The U-shape in the graph isn't seen in the paper, the connection that lack of ability precludes meta-cognitive ability on a task is intuitive, but not the only potential takeaway from the paper. 

Regardless, I think it's clear we are all victims of an amalgam of different cognitive biases. 

We judge ourselves situationally, and assume "the best".  Meanwhile, we often assume "the worst" of others. 

We can do better ... it starts with awareness.

Progress starts by telling the truth.

How Normal Is Your Face?

Project SHERPA recently released an AI-powered tool that analyzes your face and reveals how average it is. 

It's called How Normal Am I?

via How Normal Am I?

It's an interactive video that uses your webcam to walk you through the various assessments on BMI, emotion, beauty, etc.  At the end, it'll give you your life expectancy, and then your "normal score".

It's not the most complex use of AI, but it provides interesting insights, and is becoming increasingly prevalent. 

Governments, police stations, retail stores, etc. all use this technology to track individuals, and if you remember one of my previous articles - there are plenty of cameras to go around. 

If you did the demo, were you surprised by the results?

Interesting stuff!