Capitalogix

A Look Back At The Future, Part 2

As the holiday season begins, I was thinking about my father.

I love him and miss him ... but, truth be told, I teased him mercilessly about being technologically challenged (especially around the holidays, when I'd buy him a new gadget –  only to roll on the floor laughing while watching him try to figure it out).

Karma is a bitch!  My Dad used to say "whatever you make fun of me for ... will happen to you." 

I didn't yet realize how fast the world was changing ... or how quickly I'd find it hard to keep up. 

In 2015 I wrote an article about this titled "A Look Back at The Future". 

It's only four years later ... and somehow my realizations seem out-dated.

It's not just me, it's everyone! 

Realize that human perception is linear, but technological growth isn't.

As technology progression evolves and quickens, it is going to get harder to keep up.

Check out this video from 1974 ... It shows Arthur C. Clarke making some impressive guesses about the future of technology.

 

 

Now that we're here, it may not seem like an impressive prediction ... but how cool was it that Arthur C. Clarke believed a computer would fit on a desk in 1974?   

Do you think that you can predict what a computer will look like in 2034? 

Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing, augmented reality, neuro-interfaces, etc. are all going to change the face and nature of computing and perhaps life itself. 

We live in exciting times!

Onwards.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 2nd, 2018

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links 

• The 10 Best Books of 2018, According to Amazon.(BusinessInsider)
• Great Apes and Ravens Plan without Thinking. (Phys)
• Elon Musk: Ticket to Mars Will Cost about $200,000.(BigThink)
• Game of Thrones' Creator George R.R. Martin Assures Fans: Writing is Coming. (Wall Street Journal)
• Would a Universal Genetic Database Be a Crime-Solving Wonder, or an Orwellian Nightmare? (SingularityHub)

 

Trading Links

• Microsoft Passes Apple to Become Most Valuable U.S. Company. (MacRumors)
• 50 Companies to Watch in 2019. (Bloomberg)
• What Bear Markets Look Like. (AVC)
• International Stocks Will Beat US Stocks over next Decade: Vanguard Group. (CNBC)
• The World's 37 Richest, Healthiest, Happiest, and Most Prosperous Nations. (BusinessInsider)

 

 

A Little Hanukkah Fun

Tonight marks the first night of Chanukah - the Jewish festival of lights. 

We light the Menorah (Chanukah candles), eat latkas (potato pancakes), we exchange gifts, we spin the Dreidel (a gambling toy), and we enjoy a sense of family togetherness for 8 days and nights.

One of my friends sent me this funny video of a Chanukah parody of Bohemian Rhapsody ... it's better than you would expect.

 

 Six13Sings via YouTube

It's not too different from Christmas (though my kids were jealous Santa didn't come down our chimney). 

The cynic in me beleives the gift part of the holiday was invented by merchants.

In our office,  we have an "Elf on the shelf", the magical elf who reports who has been naughty and who has been nice to Santa, perching in a new spot each day. 

 

 

And, we also have "Mensch on a Bench", who watches your Menorah to make sure you don't run out of oil. 

 

 

Happy Chanukah ... or at least an early start to your holiday season!

Tackled on Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving!

My children came to town, and we continued our tradition of spending time together watching some football. The top photo is from 2008. 

 

After looking at this picture, I recognize the burden I impose on my sons.  Some would call it crushing. 

 

 

That's my oldest son, Ben. He's a good sport.

My youngest son, Zach, was happy to make sure that I got mine too. 

 

 

He still plays Rugby. 

I am thankful for my family, my company and that I continually face a better class of challenges ... forging a path to a bigger future.

What about you?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 25th, 2018

 I remember when they told me that eating meat was bad for my health ...

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links  

• Is It Possible to Replay the Tape' of Evolution? (Futurity)
• Should You Be Eating a High-Fat, Low-Carb Diet like Keto? Scientists Weigh In. (Gizmodo)
• An 1861 Japanese Book of American History. (Neatorama)
• Beijing to Judge Every Resident Based on Behavior by End of 2020.(Bloomberg)
• How Many Fake Accounts are There on Facebook? Here's a Clue: 1.5 Billion Fake Accounts Were Removed in Just the past 6 Months. (Neatorama)

 

Trading Links

• Mark Cuban Explains Why Dallas Wasn't Selected as Amazon's HQ2 Location. (SportsDay)
• Jerry Jones: Wouldn't Sell Cowboys for Less Than $10 Billion.(Profootballtalk)
• Beyond Meat Continues to Sizzle, Announces IPO. (Forbes)
• Masayoshi Son: the Man behind a $90B Empire. (TechInAsia)
• How Juul, Founded on a Life-Saving Mission, Earned a $16B Valuation Despite the Controversy. (FastCompany)

Storage Wars

Have you ever seen the posts showing what happens in a minute on the Internet?  The speed and scope of activity is amazing ...  so is how fast it is increasing.

The same is true for storage.  It is getting bigger and cheaper quickly.

This picture shows an IBM VP holding a 10 MB hard drive from the 1960s.   

via novartistic

When it was invented, I bet they wondered how someone could ever fill it.  Now imagine what it cost back then.

For context, here are some things you can do with 10 MB of space:

• Download approximately 3 songs
• or 5 medium-sized photos
• or store 50-100 HTML e-mails
• or a 3 minute low-quality video (or 48 frames of 4k footage).

Things are changing.

Here's a link to a 256 GB flash drive that you can buy for about $50 dollars ... and here's a link to a working prototype of a 1 TB flash drive.

Here are some things you can do with 1 TB of space:

• Store 17,000 hours of music
• or an 85,899,345 page word document. (source)
• or 250 full-length movies
• or 310,000 photos.

I wonder how someone could ever fill it?

Crazy!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 18th, 2018

This is how we warm-up for Thanksgiving in Texas ...

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links  

• Is this AI? We Drew You a Flowchart to Work It Out. (TechReview)
• In Defense of "Designer Babies". (Reason)
• China's Artificial Sun is Now Hot Enough for Nuclear Fusion. (Futurism)
• Science Confirms: Earth Has More Than One 'Moon'.(BigThink)
• Sign Your Address up for USPS Informed Delivery Before Scammers Do. (LifeHacker)

Trading Links

• Billionaire Ray Dalio Says Capitalism is Not Working for Most People. (Barrons)
• Bank of Japan's Balance Sheet Now Larger Than Country's GDP. (Reuters)
• Meat Has a Replacement but No One Knows What to Call It. (Bloomberg)
• Here are the Most Outrageous Incentives Cities Offered Amazon in Their HQ2 Bids. (Buzzfeednews)
• A Virtual Assistant Called Abbie is Picking the Best Bonds for Traders to Buy or Sell. (TechReview)

 

The Six Biggest Mistakes Ordinary Investors Make

It's your livelihood, it's your retirement, it's your future. 

Tony Robbins released an infographic on the six biggest mistakes ordinary investors make. 

1. Seeking confirmation to your own beliefs
2. Conflating recent events with ongoing trends
3. Overconfidence
4. Swinging for the fences
5. Staying Home (tendency to invest in things that are familiar)
6. Negativity Bias (tendency to overemphasize negative experiences)

In other words, the biggest threat to your trading profits is your own brain.  Humans are wired to avoid pain and seek pleasure ... and those tendencies just aren't conducive to smart trading. 

It's getting harder to find an edge, let alone maintain one. 

If you don't know what your edge is, you don't have one.

The reality is, over 90% of trades are electronic, and over 70% are algorithmic.

Do you think those numbers are going to increase or decrease?

Firms are using faster computers and smarter algorithms.  On top of that, high-frequency traders are skimming alpha on the executi0n. 

Here's one thing you can predict ... It is getting harder for humans to trade against the machines.

Momentum is building ... but, it already happened.  The new world of trading is quantitative. 

 

 The best way to avoid fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes is to avoid them.

It's a Quant World

Just finished speaking at an algorithmic trading conference, called QuantWorld, in Toronto.

 

AI, big data, and high-performance computing are getting cooler ... in a nerdy way.

At this show, data and methods were the focus ... showing a shift from hardware and low-latency. 

Skynet is turning on!

Woo Hoo!

Eight Major Forces Shaping Our Global Economy

In trading, the holding period (or "time in trade") is shrinking.  Consequently, there is less focus on predicting markets ... and more focus on determining which techniques are making money most predictably.

Markets are not the same as the economy ... and on a macro scale, it is possible to understand and predict the major forces shaping our global economy.

Jeff Desjardins, of the Visual Capitalist, recently highlighted some of the major forces that are changing our global economy.  Here is a summary.

 

The Tech Invasion ... and its Accelerating Progress

 

If you were to look at the biggest companies globally - almost all of them are in tech. Fifty years ago, the largest companies were in commodities (like oil, steel, etc.). Even 5 years ago, the biggest companies were widely "goods" centric. 

 

via Visual Capitalist

But it's more than just the biggest companies. We're experiencing a technological revolution in many subspaces - AI, 3D printing, gene editing, quantum computing, etc.   

Yet, for all the change and disruption we've experienced until today - understand that it is going to get faster, and more pronounced, in the future. 

And, it isn't just the tech that is new.  The pace of its adoption across industries is a game-changer as well.

 

via Visual Capitalist

We are at a point where new technology often gets released before the previous iteration can fully take hold and mature.

It is not just trading that is getting faster, product cycles are compressing, and foundational technologies are disrupted and replaced (or made obsolete) faster than ever as well.

Even global adoption cycles have become viral and near instantaneous.  Think about how fast Pokemon Go (AR) got adopted, or new Smartphones became mainstream.

 

The Evolution of Money, a Changing Wealth Landscape, ... and China

 

Money's definition is changing.  Cash is becoming less common (with the increasing use of credit cards, electronic payments, and payment services like Paypal, Venmo, and ApplePay).  In addition, the public has maintained its interest in cryptocurrencies.

Ultimately, our perception of money may radically change how global economies work. 

On top of that, money is changing hands, the ultra-wealthy are from different industries than before, and the wealthiest countries & companies widely influence politics. 

 

via Visual Capitalist

Consider the economic rise of China. Even though we've been watching China grow for decades, the scope of its population and economic impact can still be difficult to understand. China has over 100 cities with more than 1,000,000 inhabitants.  Even scarier, perhaps, is that China now has more honor students than we have students. 

 

Conclusion

 

Obviously, the global economy is changing.  To see more about the eight forces shaping it, read this.

We live in interesting times.

Onwards.