Capitalogix

A Look Back at "The Crazy Ones"

I remember being mesmerized the first time I saw Apple Computers iconic "Crazy Ones" video as part of their Think Different campaign.

Steve Jobs originally recorded a version of "The Crazy Ones" himself, but chose to release the Richard Dreyfuss narrated version. 

 

via YouTube

Here is the text version of the script.

 

Here's to the crazy ones.
The misfits.
The rebels.
The troublemakers.
The round pegs in the square holes.

The ones who see things differently.

They're not fond of rules.
And they have no respect for the status quo.

You can quote them, disagree with them,
glorify or vilify them.
About the only thing you can't do is ignore them.

Because they change things.

They push the human race forward.

While some may see them as the crazy ones,
we see genius.

Because the people who are crazy enough to think
they can change the world, are the ones who do.

    –     © 1997 Apple Computer, Inc.

Click here for extra material about the video and campaign. 

I think it has held up pretty well, and I had this piece of art commissioned for my office. 

There's a lot to be said for carving your own path, for pushing past perceived limits and accomplishing something hard to ignore.  

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 20th, 2019

Most citizens don't have big savings account to buffer them against an unexpected expense or loss of income.

The Government Shutdown is one of the curveballs most workers haven't planned for adequately.

 

Actions have consequences.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links

• Full Translation: China's 'New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan' (2017). (Newamerica)
• Apple Buys 50 Business Class Seats from San Francisco to Shanghai Every Day. (MacRumors)
• Ford Built a Sweaty Robot Butt to Simulate Your Sweaty Human Butt. (BGR)
• Intimate Portraits of People over 100 Years Old Reveal the Beauty of Aging Bodies. (MyModernMet)
• Costco is Selling a 27-Pound Tub of Mac and Cheese that Lasts 20 Years. (BusinessInsider)

 

Trading Links

• Fear of Algorithm Trading is Really Just the Fear of the Unknown. (Quartz)
• Hedge Funds Suffer Worst Year since 2011. (FT)
• Nearly Half of Workers Earn Less Than $30,000. (Ritholtz)
• Michael Dell Gets $12 Billion Richer with Break from Public Eye. (Fortune)
• The New Impossible Burger 2.0 Won Everyone's Mouth at CES 2019, but That's Just the Beginning. (Forbes)

A Quick Visit to Cuba

I went to Havana with a diverse group of business people, financial professionals and representatives from the US Fed. 

Here is a photo taken with some of the classic cars that proudly dominate the roads despite cheaper Russian and  Chinese alternatives.

 

 

The city was beautiful … dirty and broken, for sure … but still beautiful.  Here is a view from my hotel room.

  

 

I commented that it was almost like seeing a severely wounded elephant. You can tell that it's hurt (and barely a shadow of its old self). Nevertheless, you can see the amazing bone structure. It is easy to imagine what it once was.

In Cuba, the geography and the architecture are amazing. However, money hasn't been spent on the upkeep. Even though people live there, it seems surreal (almost like a post-apocalyptic wasteland).

 

 

In the story of Exodus, the Jews spent 40 years wandering the desert after escaping from Egypt. That means two generations of people, who didn't remember life as slaves, were ultimately the ones who entered the “Promised Land”.

On some level, that's how Cuba is now. Most inhabitants weren’t born (or can’t remember) the 1960s. They have known nothing but this.

Cuba is an interesting place … and I’d bet that it has an interesting future.

The “lack” had a side effect. It produced a mutation. A portion of society grew more resourceful and resilient.

 

 

Like natural selection … nature finds a way.

The rules change, the players change, even the game itself changes ... That is how new ideas and new leaders emerge.

Sometimes, almost no one notices. Sometimes they do. 

Ultimately, change remains the only constant.

Onwards!

How Long Does It Take To Get 50 Million Users?

Cool tech often gets adopted by porn and gambling before more mainstream uses.

Porn was the launchpad for video streaming, mobile-enabled sites, VR, and (unfortunately) pop-up ad technologies. 

With that said, the next chart surprised me.  It shows the number of years it took for various products to gain 50 million users.

 

 

Pornhub tracks data like its business depends on it.  Well, it is the number one site for pornography.  What does that mean? In 2018, over 5,517,700,000 hours of porn was watched on their site. That’s approximately 6,298 centuries of video.

Moreover, last year, it got  33.5 BILLION visits. That’s 1,064 people a second, or 92 million a day.  To put that in perspective, that's more people than live in the entire country of Germany.

Here are some additional factoids about its use.

• 4403 Petabytes of data transferred (574 MB of data for every person on earth)
• Consumed more bandwidth than the entire internet in 2002
• Stormy Daniels was the number 1 "trend" search in 2018  (followed by Fortnite ...)
• 4k ultra-hd overtook 1080p in search trends

 

via Pornhub

For the full list of stats click here. 

They are so popular, it is almost obscene.

A.I. in Film: A Retrospective

AI has been around in science fiction for over 1oo years. As it becomes reality, it's amusing to look at different depictions and attempt to connect the dots. 

AI first broke onto the film scene with Metropolis in 1927. "Maria" the evil robot disguising herself as a human played on many human fears; deception, lack of control, and perhaps most importantly being replaced.

Maria represented a future that was bleak and set the foundation for AI in cinema. Since then, there have been approximately 100 movies starring AI.

According to Enlighten Digital,  52% of movies portray AI positively, which means it's about 50/50, and there has been a 144% increase in AI movies since 2010 - so we're becoming more saturated with AI.

According to a study by Cambridge, seeing more films portraying robots (whether positive or negative) is associated with more positive attitudes toward robots. This is in line with the theory that the more exposure one has with "out-group" members (i.e. robots, or people of other races) the more positive one's attitude toward them. 

 

(Click to view Full Size) via NovaStor 

The depiction of AI has always been a reflection of its time ... as our values, ambitions, and technology has changed, so has on-screen AI. 

So what does today's AI look like?

On HBO, we have Westworld. In movies, iRobot, Chappie, and Blade Runner 2049 ... it's clear the promise and the peril of AI has continued to evolve.

These movies all have different tones but there's a trope that remains common from that initial film in 1927 to films in 2018. 

We're always imagining that next step. What's going to happen as AI becomes (in some ways) smarter than us? What's going to happen when our creations surpass our control? What's going to happen if the line between human and robot blurs?

There are a lot of advancements in real-life, in respect to AI. As such, there is a lot of movement on AI ethics, and how to best limit or best enable AI. 

In film, we gravitate toward two extremes - utopias and dystopias. In real life, we can recognize those extremes are unlikely ... but the effect of AI is still profound. 

We're expanding a technology with the ability to radically change our world - for better or worse - so it's important to keep a purpose-driven approach. We can't lose track of humanity in the pursuit of AI. 

Metropolis's final title card (that first AI movie from 1927)  still rings true ... "The Mediator Between the Head and the Hands Must Be the Heart"

 

Onwards!

Gil Brandt and the Innovation of Modern Football

I'm regularly surprised by the levels of innovation and strategic thinking that I see in football.

I've written posts about how much regular businesses could learn from watching football teams. That post talks about how even high school teams have a position-by-position depth chart. They have a game plan for their next opponent. They practice plays on both offense and defense. They watch game film of their past games and future opponents. And, they coach the team as a team, and the players individually. 

Often, simple ideas, applied consistently, are enough to win.

Last night I was at a Dallas Cowboys playoff game (note that is not an oxymoron) ... and I took a picture with this guy.

 

 

I see him at every game ... and every game he wears a different creative and well-thought-out costume. He sits on the 50-yard line, He wears Ferragamo shoes and a nice watch. Yet, something about this game captures his imagination.

Yesterday, I also had the honor of meeting Gil Brandt at the game. For those of you not familiar with him, he was the vice president of player personnel (or Chief Scout) of the Dallas from 1960 to 1989.  He helped Dallas grow into one of the most powerful and popular sports franchises in America. His innovative management and personnel systems are standard operating procedure today for many teams at the professional and collegiate levels nationwide. 

  

 

Many consider him the architect of the Dallas Cowboys. I'm not talking about the stadium or headquarters, I'm talking about their teams and ideas that were the catalyst to "America's Team".  I took this from his Wikipedia page.

He helped pioneer many of the scouting techniques used by NFL clubs today,^[2] such as:

• Creating a new scouting and evaluation system for prospects, which would later spread throughout the NFL. In the NFL Films' documentary series Finding Giants, Ernie Accorsi mentioned how then-general manager George Young built the New York Giants scouting process based on the Cowboys system.^[3]
• Using computers for scouting and talent evaluations. To achieve this level of automatization, the Cowboys had to systematically define which were the traits, measurable qualities and skills that could be expressed into numbers and formulas in order for a computer to understand them.^[4]
• Finding potential prospects in other sports such as: Bob Hayes, Cornell Green, Peter Gent, Toni Fritsch, Percy Howard, Ken Johnson, Ron Howard, Wade Manning, Manny Hendrix and Mac Percival. The Cowboys also set up hospitality suites for coaches at the NCAA basketball tournaments.^[5]
• Brandt was one of the first talent scouts to look outside of the United States and Canada for potential players. Kicker Toni Fritsch was discovered during a European tour.^[6]
• Made unconventional draft choices in lower rounds based on potential, even though at the time it wasn't known if the players would ever be a part of the National Football League. For example: Roger Staubach, Herschel Walker and Chad Hennings.
• The use of psychology tests to identify the mental and personality make-up of prospects.^[7]
• Finding players in the undrafted free agent and small college talent pool, such as Drew Pearson, Cliff Harris, and Everson Walls.^[8]
• Helped to create the NFL Scouting Combine as a centralization of the scouting evaluation process.

 

Gil Brandt is one step closer to joining the NFL's ultimate pantheon – The Pro Football Hall of Fame.  He has been nominated as a contributor finalist for the Class of 2019. The contributor category recognizes "individuals who made outstanding contributions to professional football in capacities other than playing or coaching."

He's an inspiration. Not only did he innovate how teams draft and measure talent ... he's the guy who figured out how to make cheerleaders an iconic symbol of a team and the game itself.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 30th, 2018

Christmas Eve saw Dow's historic low ... but it was immediately followed with a 1086 point rally (its largest single-day gain). The S&P and Dow both rallied approximately 5%.

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links

• A Nobel Prize-winning Psychologist Says Most People Don't Really Want to Be Happy. (Quartz)
• There is No Such Thing as Conscious Thought. (Scientific American)
• Automated Cyber Attacks are the next Big Threat. Ever Hear of 'Review Bombing'? (Entrepreneur)
• NASA's Scientists Formed a Club to Dream up Uses for AI like Self-replicating Robots and Harpooning Comets. (Quartz)
• A Chinese Company Said It Created a Photo with Such a High Resolution that You Can Zoom from Thousands of Meters Away to See People's Facial Expressions. (BusinessInsider)

 

 

Trading Links

• Alan Greenspan: Investors Should Prepare for the Worst. (CNN)
• 5 Charts that Explain the Global Economy in 2018. (WEForum)
• The 7 Most Anticipated IPOs in 2019. (Fool)
• Wall Street Quietly Shelves Its Bitcoin Dreams. (Bloomberg)
• After a $2 Billion Company Bonus, Every Employee at Juul is Now a Millionaire. (RobbReport)

How Does America Use Its Land?

America is big and pretty heavily populated.  Surprisingly, 28% of the land is owned by the government (check out this YouTube video). 

As you might guess, the eastern US holds almost no federal land while the Western US has states that are primarily federal land (Nevada is 84.9% federal land). 

Bloomberg had an interesting series of infographics that covered America's land use and relative profitability.

To start, can you guess what takes up the most space ... 

 

Cows. 

 

Over 41% of the land in the contiguous US revolves around livestock and livestock feed. The farmland used to feed us is an afterthought in comparison - it makes sense when people talk about cows' environmental effect. 

Dave Merrill and Lauren Leatherby via Bloomberg

Urban areas make up only 3.6% of land use - but four out of five Americans live there (and this area accounts for about 40% of GDP). 

The map below gives us a rough idea of the split of U.S. land.  

Dave Merrill and Lauren Leatherby via Bloomberg

Urban growth is outpacing other categories, but we're also doing a good job of repairing forestland.  According to The Land Report magazine, the land owned by the top landowning families has grown to be larger than Florida - and is continuing to grow. 

There are a couple extrapolations that you can make from this information - but I'm curious  ... what do you take from this?

The Psychology Behind Gambling (and Everyday Traders)

Vegas and Wall Street share a lot in common. 

Over Time ... The House Wins

Casinos only offer to play games that they expect to win.  In contrast, gambling customers play even though they know the odds are against them.

Why does this happen?  The rush of a win, the chance of a big win, and random reinforcement are common factors that incent people to play lotto, go to a casino, or try to trade.

Chemicals like adrenaline and dopamine play a part as well.  Even in a sea of losses, your body can't help but crave the chemical reward of even a small win, 

The "House" knows this and engineers an experience that takes advantage of it.  

In the case of casinos, every detail is meticulously crafted to extract you from your money - from carpet patterns to the labyrinthian layouts, the music, the lights and even the games themselves. 

Here is an infographic that lays it out for you. 

Bojoko via DailyInfographic

Most people aren't gamblers ... the fear of losing big inhibits them.  However, when people were instructed to "think like a trader," they showed considerably less risk-aversion when gambling. 

 

The illusion of control convinces us we can overcome the statistics. 

 

When you almost get it right - when you miss the jackpot by one slot on a slot machine, when you just mistime a trade to get a big win - you're more likely to play longer, and place bigger bets ... because you're "so close". 

It's human nature to want to feel in control. 

This is why you find a lot of superstitious traders & gamblers. If you wear this lucky item of clothing ... if you throw the dice in this particular way ... if you check your holdings at this time every day ... you have control. 

There is a big difference between causation and correlation. 

It is not hard to imagine that the majority of a trader's activities do little to create a real and lasting edge.  

 

Skill vs. Luck

There are games of skill, and there are games of chance.

In a casino, poker and blackjack are considered games of skill.  In contrast, slot machines are considered a game of chance.

In trading, predicting markets is much different than using math and statistics to measure the performance of a technique.

Much of what we do is to figure out how to eliminate the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes humans bring to trading.

In trading, "Alpha" is the measure of excess return attributed to manager skill, rather than luck or taking on more risk.

We believe in Alpha-by-Avoidance ... Meaning much of what we do is figure out what to ignore or avoid so that the majority of the games we play are games of skill rather than games of chance.

Are you playing the right game?

 

A Look Back At The Future, Part 2

As the holiday season begins, I was thinking about my father.

I love him and miss him ... but, truth be told, I teased him mercilessly about being technologically challenged (especially around the holidays, when I'd buy him a new gadget –  only to roll on the floor laughing while watching him try to figure it out).

Karma is a bitch!  My Dad used to say "whatever you make fun of me for ... will happen to you." 

I didn't yet realize how fast the world was changing ... or how quickly I'd find it hard to keep up. 

In 2015 I wrote an article about this titled "A Look Back at The Future". 

It's only four years later ... and somehow my realizations seem out-dated.

It's not just me, it's everyone! 

Realize that human perception is linear, but technological growth isn't.

As technology progression evolves and quickens, it is going to get harder to keep up.

Check out this video from 1974 ... It shows Arthur C. Clarke making some impressive guesses about the future of technology.

 

 

Now that we're here, it may not seem like an impressive prediction ... but how cool was it that Arthur C. Clarke believed a computer would fit on a desk in 1974?   

Do you think that you can predict what a computer will look like in 2034? 

Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing, augmented reality, neuro-interfaces, etc. are all going to change the face and nature of computing and perhaps life itself. 

We live in exciting times!

Onwards.