Capitalogix

Can Humans Predict The Future?

New technologies fascinate me ... As we approach the Singularity, I guess that is becoming human nature. 

Ray Kurzweil (who is a well-respected futurist, inventor, and entrepreneur) optimistically predicts accelerating returns and exponential progress, where the technological advancements experienced in the 21st century will be vastly more significant and disruptive than those in previous centuries. Kurzeil believes: “The next century won’t feel like 100 years of progress—it will feel like 20,000."

However, there is a tension between our ability to imagine grand futures and our struggle to execute the how—the messy, uncertain work of getting there.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (a noted expert on randomness, probability, complexity, and uncertainty) reminds us that, “We often overestimate what we know and underestimate uncertainty.” There is a risk that “continuous forward motion” sometimes leads to dead ends and that speed without thoughtful direction can be dangerous. This is true in part because technology adoption is often more about human nature than the absolute value of technology. 

This post is about embracing the paradox of accepting both the value of vision and the discipline of small, progressive steps.

Dreaming vs. Doing

Recognize that the future is co-authored by dreamers and doers.

To get us started, here is a video, put together by Second Thought, that looks at various predictions from the early 1900s. It is a fun watch – Check it out. 

 

via Second Thought

The Fascination With and Challenges of Prediction

It’s interesting to look at what they strategically got right compared to what was tactically different. 

In a 1966 interview, Marshall McLuhan discussed the future of information with ideas that now resonate with AI technologies. He envisioned personalized information, where people request specific knowledge and receive tailored content. This concept has become a reality through AI-powered chatbots like ChatGPT, which can provide customized information based on user inputs.

Although McLuhan was against innovation, he recognized the need to understand emerging trends to maintain control and know when to “turn off the button.” 

In 1966, media futurist Marshall McLuhan envisioned a form of digital research eerily similar to the customized queries now answered by AI. Then he makes a surprising admission about why he studies technological change—with a lesson I think many need to hear. pic.twitter.com/yEBJv95GvP

— Benjamin Carlson (@bfcarlson) March 22, 2023

Prophecy vs. Navigation

While we revere “prophetic” moments, most successful outcomes arise from continuous adjustment—not perfect foresight.

Peter Drucker famously said, “The best way to predict the future is to create it.”

I’ll say it a different way ... It’s more useful to view innovation as navigation, rather than prophecy.

Like evolution, Success isn’t about strength or certainty—it’s about the ability to adapt quickly and course-correct as conditions change. This mindset urges leaders to embrace agile, resilient strategies that can respond rapidly to emerging opportunities and threats.

With that said, activity is not progress if it doesn’t lead you in the right direction. There are times when continuous course-correction can lead a team in circles. Pausing for periodic reflection and creating feedback loops helps prevent innovation drift. 

While not all predictions are made equal, we seem to have a better idea of what we want than how to accomplish it. 

The farther the horizon, the more guesswork is involved. Compared to the prior video on predictions from the mid-1900s, this video on the internet from 1995 seems downright prophetic. 

 

via YouTube

The Distinction Between Envisioning Outcomes and Creating Practical Paths to Them.

There’s a lesson there. It’s hard to predict the future, but that doesn’t mean you can’t skate to where the puck is moving. Future success goes to those who can quickly sense shifts, reorient, make decisions, and take action.

Even if the path ahead is unsure, it’s relatively easy to pick your next step, and then the next step. As long as you are moving in the right direction and keep taking steps without stopping, the result is inevitable. 

In Uncharted Territory, It’s Better to Use a Compass Than a Map

The distant future may be fuzzy, but it’s our willingness to keep moving—and keep learning—that tips the odds in our favor.

Reflect on the value of looking ahead, not for certainty but for direction.

Don’t worry if you can’t see your intended destination. Just focus on your next step and trust the journey.

Remember, there is always a best next step.

Onwards!

The Most Common Words In Each Religion ...

The World seems very “Us” versus “Them”...  But are we really that different?

The six largest religions in the world are Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Hinduism, Buddhism, and Sikhism. 

If you stripped away doctrine, what patterns might emerge in the world’s great sacred texts?

Similarity in Diversity.

We often think about the differences between religions. However, a deep review of their sacred texts shows striking similarities (and may be indications of a more integral “truth”).

Below is a word cloud for each of those religions based on their primary religious text. A word cloud is a visual map of language where the size and boldness of a word reflect its frequency in the text. In this case, the image spotlights the most frequent words across different religious texts (e.g., Jewish Bible, Christian New Testament, Quran, Hindu Vedas, Buddhist Tripitaka, Sikh Guru Granth Sahib).

Each panel highlights high-frequency terms like Lord, God, man, people, Israel, Indra, Agni, Allah, fortunate, Guru, etc., with the most frequently used words appearing larger and bolder. A visualization, like this, makes it easy to identify the recurring themes or focal points of each tradition.

So, here is a closer look at what a word cloud of the world’s religions reveals if we strip away doctrine and focus only on frequency. 

 

teddyterminal via Reddit

On one level, this post explores both the similarities and limits of religious texts via word clouds.

As historian Yuval Harari notes, “Humans think in terms of stories, not statistics.” Those word clouds are the beginnings of narratives that go beyond the numbers. For example, shared words don’t mean shared values. The word ‘love’ in one tradition may imply obedience, while in another it means self-transcendence.

The Power and Pitfalls of Translation

Likewise, translating sacred texts into English makes them more accessible, but can distort meaning and nuance. As an illustration, if you noticed the name “Keith” at the bottom of the Hinduism word cloud, it’s because that was the translator’s name. You might also have seen the word “car” in the Hinduism cloud, that is not an anachronism or prophecy... it is just another old-fashioned word for “chariot”.

It’s also worth acknowledging that this word cloud is from the English translations, so some words that may mean slightly different things in other languages can be all translated to one word in English. For example, it’s very common in Biblical Hebrew to see different words translated into the same English word. Examples include Khata, Avon, and Pesha – three different “ways of committing a wrong” that may all be translated to the same English word.

Distortions like these occur across many texts and cultures. In other words, similarities in word usage do not always reflect shared values. Recognizing this helps us navigate between the boundaries of certainty and uncertainty.

This brings to mind an ancient parable …

The Parable of Perspectives – Lessons from the Elephant

I’ve always loved the parable of the blind men and the elephant. While there are many versions, here’s broadly how it goes:

A group of blind men heard that a strange animal, called an elephant, had been brought to the town, but none of them were aware of its shape and form. Out of curiosity, they said: "We must inspect and know it by touch, of which we are capable". So, they sought it out, and when they found it they groped about it. The first person, whose hand landed on the trunk, said, "This being is like a thick snake". For another one whose hand reached its ear, it seemed like a kind of fan. As for another person, whose hand was upon its leg, said, the elephant is a pillar like a tree-trunk. The blind man who placed his hand upon its side said the elephant, "is a wall". Another who felt its tail, described it as a rope. The last felt its tusk, stating the elephant is that which is hard, smooth and like a spear. 

This parable highlights that even when everyone is “blind” to the whole truth, each perspective still holds real insight. Recognizing that partial views are still valuable can drive innovative, integrative thinking.

The blind men and the elephant parable also reminds us of the limitations of individual perspectives and the value of integrating multiple viewpoints. Interestingly, that integration is one of the things large language models are best at ... and helping humans access a perspective of perspectives might be a step towards enlightenment.

Future societies may see it as obvious that synthesizing perspectives (religious, cultural, strategic) can be done by advanced AI at scale, transforming how we resolve complex disputes.

Hope that helps.

Oh, and as a thought experiment ... What would the word cloud of your own guiding beliefs look like?

Faulty Logic & Logical Fallacies: A Brief Lesson

I have a poster hanging in my office that says: “Artificial Intelligence is cool ... Artificial Stupidity is scary.”

 

 

The point is that we like the idea of automation and real-time decision-making, but only if the answers are correct.

Speed amplifies truth and error. AI makes you smarter faster—or wrong at scale. Sometimes, the systems we build to make better decisions also multiply our mistakes. Several core tensions create that paradox.

• Velocity vs. Veracity: Pressure to move fast conflicts with the need to verify causal logic, not just correlation.
• Persuasion vs. Truth-Seeking: Organizations reward confidence and narrative; reality rewards calibration and evidence.
• Automation vs. Accountability: As decisions become machine-mediated, ownership blurs—who is responsible when logic fails and who is supposed to catch the error?
• Simplicity vs. Completeness: Leaders want short answers; complex realities resist neat categories and invite fallacies.

The problem isn’t just with automation. I’ve come to understand that an answer is not always THE answer. Consequently, part of a robust decision-making process is to figure out different ways of coming up with an answer ... and then figuring out which of those serves your purposes best.

That distinction is essential in automation and designing agentic processes, but it’s also important to think about that as we operate on a day-to-day basis.

That’s the point of today’s post. It’s about some of the common logical errors that prevent us from getting better results.

Several times this week, I used a simple framework that says if the outcome isn’t right, start by looking at the people,  the process, and the information. Meaning, when troubleshooting outcomes, investigate whether you are using the right resource, the best method, and whether you have enough complete and accurate information to make an informed decision.

Because AI is an amplifier of existing decision quality, it is also a good practice to add a “precision gate” before automation: meaning, don’t automate a process until you can articulate the decision criteria, known error modes, and the top 3 fallacies likely to occur in that context.

 

Understanding is often more complicated than it seems.

 

Richard Feynman, a renowned physicist, was also well known for making complex things simple. He believed that if you couldn’t explain something simply, you didn’t truly understand it yourself. He stressed that it’s crucial to be honest with oneself, as self-deception is a common pitfall that hinders genuine understanding. Feynman said: “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.”

 

So, before you automate something, state the rule in plain words. Then list the top three ways it could fool you. If you can’t explain the rule, don’t automate it.

 

Likewise, with ideas and beliefs, ask yourself, “What would prove me wrong?” 

With that in mind, here is a quick primer on logical fallacies.

A logical fallacy is a flaw in reasoning. In other words, logical fallacies are like tricks or illusions of thought. As you might suspect, politicians and the media often rely on them. Recently, we discussed the Dunning-Kruger Effect ... but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. 

 

Oxford Learning via InFact with Brian Dunning (Part 2, Part 3)

It is fun to identify which of these certain people (including yourself) use when arguing, deciding, or otherwise pontificating. To help, here is a short list of TWENTY LOGICAL FALLACIES:

They fall into three main types: Distraction (10), Ambiguity (5), and Form (5).

A. Fallacies of Distraction

1. Ad baculum (Veiled threat): "to the stick":
DEF.- threatening an opponent if they don’t agree with you; EX.- "If you don’t agree with me you’ll get hurt!"

2. Ad hominem (Name-calling; Poisoning the well): "to the man":
DEF.- attacking a person’s habits, personality, morality or character; EX.- "His argument must be false because he swears and has bad breath."

3. Ad ignorantium (Appeal to ignorance):
DEF.- arguing that if something hasn’t been proved false, then it must be true; EX.- "U.F.Os must exist, because no one can prove that they don’t."

4. Ad populum: "To the people; To the masses":
DEF.- appealing to emotions and/or prejudices; EX.- "Everyone else thinks so, so it must be true."

5. Bulverism: (C.S. Lewis’ imaginary character, Ezekiel Bulver)
DEF.- attacking a person’s identity/race/gender/religion; EX.- "You think that because you’re a (man/woman/Black/White/Catholic/Baptist, etc.)"

6. Chronological Snobbery
DEF.- appealing to the age of something as proof of its truth or validity; EX.-"Voodoo magic must work because it’s such an old practice;" "Super-Glue must be a good product because it’s so new."

7. Ipse dixit: "He said it himself":
DEF.- appealing to an illegitimate authority; EX.- "It must be true, because (so and so) said so."

8. Red Herring (Changing the subject):
DEF.- diverting attention; changing the subject to avoid the point of the argument; EX.- "I can’t be guilty of cheating. Look how many people like me!"

9. Straw Man:
DEF.- setting up a false image of the opponent's argument; exaggerating or simplifying the argument and refuting that weakened form of the argument; EX.- "Einstein's theory must be false!  It makes everything relative--even truth!" 

10. Tu quoque: "You also"
DEF.- defending yourself by attacking the opponent; EX.- "Who are you to condemn me! You do it too!"

B. Fallacies of Ambiguity

1. Accent:
DEF.- confusing the argument by changing the emphasis in the sentence; EX.- "YOU shouldn’t steal" (but it’s okay if SOMEONE ELSE does); "You shouldn’t STEAL" (but it’s okay to LIE once in a while); "You SHOULDN’T steal (but sometimes you HAVE TO) ."

2. Amphiboly: [Greek: "to throw both ways"]
DEF.- confusing an argument by the grammar of the sentence; EX.- "Croesus, you will destroy a great kingdom!" (your own!)

3. Composition:
DEF.- assuming that what is true of the parts must be true of the whole; EX.- "Chlorine is a poison; sodium is a poison; so NaCl must be a poison too;" "Micro-evolution is true [change within species]; so macro-evolution must be true too [change between species]."

4. Division:
DEF.- assuming that what is true of whole must be true of the parts; EX.- "The Lakers are a great team, so every player must be great too."

5. Equivocation:
DEF.- confusing the argument by using words with more than one definition; EX.- "You are really hot on the computer, so you’d better go cool off."

C. Fallacies of Form

1. Apriorism (Hasty generalization):
DEF.- leaping from one experience to a general conclusion; EX.- "Willy was rude to me. Boys are so mean!"

2. Complex question (Loaded question):
DEF.- framing the question so as to force a single answer; EX.- "Have you stopped beating your wife yet?"

3. Either/or (False dilemma):
DEF.- limiting the possible answers to only two; oversimplification; EX.- "If you think that, you must be either stupid or half-asleep."

4. Petitio principii (Begging the question; Circular reasoning):
DEF.- assuming what must be proven; EX.- "Rock music is better than classical music because classical music is not as good."

5. Post hoc ergo propter hoc (False cause): "after this, therefore because of this;"
DEF.- assuming that a temporal sequence proves a causal relationship; EX.- "I saw a great movie before my test; that must be why I did so well."

 

I like reading lists like that ... but how can you use the insights? Here is an idea: pair each fallacy with a “counter-check” question. For example, for Red Herring: “Did we change the topic because the original claim was uncomfortable, or because new data was material?”

For more on that, here is a fun and informative infographic by The School of Thought.

 

via School of Thought

We must use logic as a spam filter: Fallacies are the junk mail of thought—fast, flashy, and costly when clicked.

Hope that helps.

The Growth of U.S. Businesses Over the Last 5 Years ...

Over the past five years, U.S. businesses have grown a lot, thanks in large part to recent advances in exponential technologies. At first glance, it looks like a simple win: more companies, more jobs, better tech. But it’s worth a closer look. 

 

It’s easy to get lost in how fast AI is growing. Being so close to it can lead to myopia. For a broader picture, VisualCapitalist put together an infographic on the growth of various industries over the last 5 years. 

 

via visualcapitalist

Business creation has grown almost 20% over the last five years, with small businesses generating about 60% of new jobs in America. However, a look at the data shows a small number of firms drive most of that growth. 

According to J.P. Morgan, the information sector posted the strongest five‑year growth gains (+58%), followed by professional and business services (+32%) and education and health services (+25%).

It’s not surprising that the information business grew fastest, given the catalyst that AI and automation offer, and the growing awareness that data is increasingly a valuable asset.

AI today reminds me a lot of the Internet boom in the early 2000s. Back then, everyone focused on the technology, and it seemed like a separate tech domain. But now, almost every company relies on that technology as infrastructure, making it part of the playing field. I believe AI will become so widespread that, for most businesses, it will simply be part of the landscape.

The story isn’t just about how fast technology moves; it’s about how we steer it.

For example, AI and healthcare are a natural pair with transformative potential. By making diagnostic procedures faster, predicting patient outcomes, and customizing treatment plans, AI is poised to revolutionize how we treat or cure diseases and also how we improve longevity and regenerative medicine results. Interest and assets are sure to flow into that sector.

However, no matter where you look, the growing capabilities and tech infrastructure have profound implications for growth and transformation.

I’m curious which sectors you expect to grow fastest going forward?

As always ... Onwards!

BlackRock's Meteoric Rise ...

---

I don’t usually write about individual companies, but an infographic highlighting BlackRock’s impressive growth caught my eye.

BlackRock has been around since 1988. It wasn’t until the early 2000s that it really took off, but since then, they’ve clearly been doing something right. 

Now, they are the world’s largest asset manager.

 

Voronoi via visualcapitalist

In 2006, BlackRock acquired Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, nearly doubling its AUM, but its CAGR shows that it’s not just luck that has helped BlackRock achieve its current position. 

In 2023, when I reviewed their equity holdings, they held approximately $9 trillion in assets. Now that has grown to more than $12 trillion. 

While they aren’t as transparent as Berkshire Hathaway about what they do or how they do it, according to its website, BlackRock positions itself as a systematic investor that leverages vast datasets and new technologies.

Comparing again to Berkshire Hathaway, both have invested heavily in Apple, which isn’t particularly surprising. 

While I enjoy insights into other investors' playbooks, it’s not the be-all and end-all. It’s simply one way to invest ... and might be a reasonable way to get from a lot of money to even more money - but their trading strategy isn’t necessarily going to work for the average investor (or you). 

Still, when there is blood in the streets … asking, “What would Warren or Blackrock do?” might be a great place to start.

However, it is challenging to maintain an edge if you use the same process and data as your competitors (especially when they have enough assets to use time or trade size to their advantage).

As the flywheels of commerce spin faster, edges will emerge and decay faster than ever before. Finding a solution is only a step in an ongoing process.  

Robust, reliable, and repeatable innovation at scale is a meaningful competitive advantage. That implies that idea factories will become as important (if not more so) than factories that produce material products. Likewise, innovation funnels will become more important than sales funnels. 

The world changes at the speed of thought ... and as technology continues to improve ... even faster.

Thankfully, we live in interesting times.

Which Industries Are Struggling To Find Good Workers?

A few weeks ago, we discussed the changes in the job market since 1988, but the focus was primarily on the most common jobs. 

Now, let’s take a look at which industries are struggling to find qualified candidates or to keep them. 

As AI becomes more prevalent, it’s essential to consider several key factors when thinking about jobs and the future of work. 

One thing to consider is whether an industry is ripe for disruption ... or just replacement.  Another consideration is whether a role can be easily automated. 

To start, try to understand which industries are currently seeking job candidates and have long-term stability. Here is a chart from VisualCapitalist showing global employers expecting challenges hiring talent. 

Voronoi via visualcapitalist

Labor shortages are increasing globally, and yet many young adults are struggling to find careers.

That’s an interesting contradiction: lots of jobs need people, but lots of young folks can’t find work.

 

This is crucial because it shows there’s a mismatch — the jobs exist, but the skills, readiness, or interests aren’t aligned with what employers want. It’s not just about having jobs; it’s about having the right people for those jobs. Zooming out, this mismatch reveals a bigger gap in education, training, culture, and how we prepare people for work. Fixing this isn’t just about filling seats; it’s about building a workforce that can grow with the changing economy and replace the aging boomers as they begin to retire en masse.

This chart helps us understand where skilled workers are needed and which industries may be struggling. 

Real estate tops the list with 60% anticipating hiring difficulties in the near term. With high interest rates and market volatility, it does make sense. People tend to look for easy wins, and volatility scares both investors and employees alike.

While we know that retail & fast food workers are still among the most common jobs, hospitality has been struggling. This could be caused by labor conditions and complaints about compensation. 

Meanwhile, tech, healthcare, and telecom are the least affected by job insecurity. While these are saturated markets, they’re also growing markets with well-defined career paths and consistent demand. 

People thrive when given autonomy, mastery, and purpose. Understanding motivation beyond money helps struggling industries rethink job design to attract and keep talent. And in the bigger picture, meaningful work fuels engagement and innovation, creating a cycle of growth and satisfaction.

 

The struggle to find good workers is a canary in the coal mine—a warning that the world of work is shifting beneath our feet. It matters because work shapes economies and lives. Leaders who grasp not just the “what” but the layered “whys” have a chance to build a future workforce that’s resilient, motivated, and human-centered.

 

In times like these, some people see the challenges ... while others see the opportunity.

 

Onwards!

The Future of Biohacking

Today’s my birthday. I woke up on the right side of the dirt, in America, grateful for the opportunities ahead. 

So far, so good.

For me, birthdays also invite a moment to pause and reflect on where I am, where I want to go, and what it’ll take to get there.

On the health front, I’m reminded of a simple truth: A healthy person has a thousand dreams, while an unhealthy one has only one.

Thankfully, I still have many dreams.

We’re lucky to be born late enough in human history that medicine isn’t just about fixing what’s broken—it’s about regeneration and life extension. The real promise isn’t just living longer, but living well longer.

That’s a future worth investing in.

So today, I’m dusting off some notes from a meeting I had years ago—lessons that feel more relevant than ever.

A Chat With The Father of Biohacking  

In 2018, I was in Alaska at Steamboat Bay for a CEO retreat. I was spending time with a friend, Dave Asprey, a successful serial entrepreneur, author of several great books, and a thought leader in biohacking. In many ways, he’s the father of modern biohacking. 

We recorded a video where Dave did a great job of relating his world to the world of Capitalogix and trading. I share it in part so you can experience his wide range of interests and expertise. It holds up well. I encourage you to watch it.

 

Via YouTube.

In the video, Dave explains that life evolves through a series of algorithms operating at microscopic levels. Your body and brain are made of tiny parts working like clever little computers. These parts constantly talk to each other, sense what’s happening around them, and change their behavior to keep you alive and thriving.

Nature has been running this amazing program for billions of years, constantly improving through trial and error (that’s evolution).

Dave points out that there are striking similarities between genetics/epigenetics and modern digital algorithms. Markets and businesses make numerous small decisions and adjustments to achieve significant outcomes.

In a sense, Markets and industries function like biological environments where algorithms continuously evolve and adapt.

So really, life and business aren’t magic—they’re just lots of tiny choices happening at once. If you learn how to listen to these choices and guide them wisely, you become better at playing the game. And that’s how evolution, biology, and even markets all tie together.

 

The lesson? Build systems and habits that are flexible and adaptable, like living things.

It helped me reframe my perspective on my business. But it also got me thinking more about my health and how I wanted the next 20 years of my life to look. As a result, I started taking care of my health and paying more attention to preventive care. 

Health is the foundation that gives all ambitions a place to stand.

Focusing on the positive is important, but extending your healthy lifespan starts by being honest with yourself and identifying what you and your body struggle with the most.

A doctor friend gave me some advice. He said it doesn’t matter if you’re on top of 9 out of 10 things; it’s the 10th that kills you.

The goal isn’t just to stay alive longer; it’s to live life to its fullest for as long as possible.

I recently joined a fantastic mastermind group called DaVinci 50, run by Lisa and Richard Rossi. It brings together a remarkable collection of medical professionals and entrepreneurs focused on the latest research, treatments, and opportunities in health and longevity.

Another great tool I rely on is Advanced Body Scan. Early detection is crucial, but so is tracking the history of your scans to monitor changes over time. In my opinion, the most valuable scan is always the next one.

Additionally, I utilize a growing list of trackers and biometric devices to monitor my heart rate, along with various apps and tools for mindfulness, breathwork, and journaling. It is essential to recognize that the mind, body, and spirit work together to shape how you live your life.

Where Biohacking Fits In 

It’s not surprising that biohacking has become as popular as it has. In a society that encourages (and perhaps even necessitates) an impossible balance between work, responsibilities, and self-care, it makes sense to want to increase efficiency and effectiveness. 

Biohacking helps you do more with less. Biohacking is popular because it promises to help you achieve peak performance via the path of least resistance.

Having trouble with sleep, but don’t want to stop using your phone before bed? Wear blue-light blocking glasses. 

Not getting enough results at the gym? Work out “smarter,” not harder, by using cryotechnology and intelligent lifting machines. 

While biohacking started as tricks like that – nootropics to help your mind, light and sound machines to decrease stress – it’s becoming increasingly tech-centric and augmentation-based. 

In Sweden, thousands of Swedes are having microchips inserted under their skin to speed up their daily routines. They use chips to open locked doors, store contact information, and access the train. 

The Future of Biohacking

Long-term, it’s likely you’ll see it moving toward exoskeletons, AR/XR experiences, and, unsurprisingly, sex toys. It’s also being used to create artificial organs and counteract memory loss. Companies leading this movement are Neuralink,  Biohax International, and Digiwell. While it’s currently being adopted primarily by fast movers and technocrats, it’s pragmatic to think that more widely adopted versions of this will emerge as technology becomes standardized and protections are put in place. 

For all the excitement, it’s necessary to remain skeptical and patient. DIY biohacking raises several ethical concerns, particularly regarding data protection and cybersecurity. As a reminder, when it comes to cybersecurity, you, the user, are the biggest weakness.

There’s no stopping this train, but there’s still time to ensure it stays on track.

If you’re looking to get started, here’s an hour-long conversation with Dave Asprey about his favorite optimizations. 

Here’s to having a thousand dreams, leveraging the best of today’s medical advances, and investing not just in years added, but quality within those years.

Onwards!

Digesting a Bigger Future

We live in a world where technology changes quickly and often, while human nature remains relatively unchanged.

For most of us, human nature is the key variable.

I suspect Henry Ford focused on that when he said, "Whether you think you can or you think you can't. You're right."

Processing the possibilities of tomorrow is often difficult for humans. Part of the problem is that we're wired to think locally and linearly. It's a monumental task for us to comprehend exponential growth, let alone its implications. For example, consider what happened to seemingly smart and forward-looking companies like Kodak, Blockbuster, and RadioShack. 

 

The world changes quickly.

Change is constant. The wheels of innovation and commerce spin ever-faster (whether you're ready for it or not). 

As a practical matter, it means that you get to choose between the shorter-term pain of trying to keep up ... or the longer-term pain of being left behind. Said another way, you have to choose between chaos and nothing. 

It's hard to keep up – and even harder to stay ahead.

Personally, I went from being one of the youngest and most tech-savvy people in the room to a not-so-young person close to losing their early-adopter beanie. Sometimes it almost seems like my kids expect me to ask them to set my VCR so it stops flashing 12:00 AM all day.

My company may not be doing "rocket science", but it's pretty close. We utilize exponential technologies, such as high-performance computing, AI, and machine learning, to amplify intelligence and make data-driven, evidence-based decisions in real-time, all the time. 

But, as we get "techier," I get less so ... and my role gets less technical, over time, too.

Due to my age, experience, and tendency to be a pioneer, I've been battling technology for decades. 

Don't get me wrong, technology has always been my friend, and I still love it. But my relationship with it is different now.

I recognize that there are things that change and things that stay the same. And for me, the things that "stay the same" tend to be more important.

Paradoxically, the part of me that stays the same can still change and grow – that is how you become more (and a more evolved version) of that thing.

 

The Bigger Picture

My father said that not worrying about all the little details helped him see the bigger picture and focus on what was possible.

You don't have to focus on the technological details to predict its progress. Anticipating what people will need is a great predictor of what will get built.   That means predicting "what" is often easier than predicting 'how'.

Why is that often the case? Because technology that solves a problem is more profitable and popular than technology searching for a problem to solve.

Here's a video from 1974 of Arthur C. Clarke making some remarkably accurate predictions about the future of technology. 

 

via Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing, augmented reality, neuro-interfaces, and a host of exponential technologies are going to change the face and nature of our lives (and perhaps life itself). Some of these technologies have become inevitabilities ... but what they enable is virtually limitless.

Where do you see this going?

Onwards.

How Has The Job Market Changed Since 1988?

1998 was a long time ago. My oldest son was just a twinkle in my eye. Michael Jackson was touring the world for his ‘Bad’ album, and ‘Rain Man’ topped the movie charts. It’s also the year that Microsoft Office was released. 

A lot has changed since then. For obvious reasons, the U.S. labor market has changed radically since then ... but how different is it really?

 

via visualcapitalist 

The data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, so we can assume it’s relatively accurate. 

In 1988, consumer-facing roles, such as salespeople and cashiers, were the most common jobs in 46 states. Comparing that to 2024 highlights how much less reliance we have on brick-and-mortar stores. 

While not entirely different, now fast food workers are the most common job in 15 states. This is unsurprising in light of the shift toward lower-wage & flexible-hour service jobs. Meanwhile, retail salespersons are still the top job in 11 states. 

Operations managers, home health aides, and freight movers have made significant gains in the U.S. labor market. 

I was surprised to see how many home health aides there were, but considering the aging U.S. population, it makes sense. 

The U.S. is still clearly a consumer economy; however, the focus has switched towards logistics and supply chain, as people shop increasingly online. 

I’ve been thinking a lot about the future of work. People talk about change, but so far, things have felt relatively stable. That’s about to shift. AI is advancing faster than most realize—we’re still early on the curve, but the steep climb is beginning.

We’re entering a phase where AI is no longer just a tool—it’s becoming a collaborator in both our personal and professional lives. This shift will reshape how we work, create, and make decisions. For business leaders, that means looking past the hype and focusing on real value, workforce readiness, and building trust. For employees, it means adapting to a new kind of teamwork—one that includes AI as a core partner in creativity and productivity.

How will those changes show up in a chart like this?

 

We live in interesting times!

When Worlds Collide: Timeless Wisdom & Evolutionary Technology in Trading with Matthew Piepenburg

Back in 2020, I had a Zoom meeting with Matthew Piepenburg of Signals Matter. Of course, being the height of the Pandemic, it was over Zoom. Even though it was a private discussion, there was so much value in our discussion that we decided to share parts of it here. 

While Matt's understanding of markets is based on Macro/Value investing, we use advanced AI and quantitative methods for our approach. 

As you might expect, there are a lot of differences in how we view the world, decision-making, and the current market environment. Nonetheless, we share a lot of common beliefs as well.   

Our talk explores several interesting areas and concepts. I encourage you to watch it below. 

 

Via YouTube.

To summarize a couple of the key points, markets are not the economy, and normal market dynamics have been out the window for a long time. In addition, part of why you're seeing increased volatility and noise is that there are so many interventions and artificial inputs to our market system.

While Matt and I may approach the world with very different lenses, we both believe in "timeless wisdom". 

Ask yourself, What was true yesterday, today, and will stay true tomorrow? 

That is part of the reason we focus on emerging technologies and constant innovation ... they remain relevant. 

Something we can both agree on is that if you don't know what your edge is ... you don't have one. 

 

Hope you enjoyed the video.

Let me know what other topics you'd like to hear more about. 

Onwards!

Via YouTube.

To summarize a couple of the key points, markets are not the economy, and normal market dynamics have been out the window for a long time. In addition, part of why you're seeing increased volatility and noise is that there are so many interventions and artificial inputs to our market system.

While Matt and I may approach the world with very different lenses, we both believe in "timeless wisdom". 

Ask yourself, What was true yesterday, today, and will stay true tomorrow? 

That is part of the reason we focus on emerging technologies and constant innovation ... they remain relevant. 

Something we can both agree on is that if you don't know what your edge is ... you don't have one. 

 

Hope you enjoyed the video.

Let me know what other topics you'd like to hear more about. 

Onwards!