Capitalogix

Capitalogix Commentary 06/28/09

Rolling Stone is not where I typically read insightful Market commentary.  Nonetheless, Matt Taibbi wrote a piece for them you should read.  The article is called "The Great American Bubble Machine", and it details Goldman Sachs' role in engineering every major market manipulation since the Great Depression.  Take a look.

Also, here is a link to the text of the article.

Other Asset Classes.

This chart caught my eye.  It shows the top-ten residential real-estate markets, and let's just say none of them are around here.  Click the picture to go to Reiden's site for more data.

 

I guess Goldman Sachs isn't the only one who can create Bubbles. 

Also, I'm hearing a lot more rumblings from experienced traders about buying a little gold.  Richard Russell, of Dow Theory fame, says: “The way the world is going, ‘gold will be the last man standing’. Gold will be wanted because unlike everything else, gold can not go bankrupt. Gold has no debt against it, gold is not the product of some nation’s central bank. Gold is pure intrinsic wealth. It needs no nation to guarantee it. Gold is outside the paper system.”

Confidence In the U.S. Equity Markets.

The VIX closed at 25.93 today, down more than 16% from Monday’s close of 31.17 to the lowest closing level since September 12, 2008 – the last trading day before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy was announced.  A rise in volatility from these levels would likely be bearish.

Bespoke notes that the Michigan Confidence joins the growing number of indicators that are now at or better than Pre-Lehman levels.  It is currently at its highest level since January 2008.  This month's reading is also the fourth consecutive month-over-month increase in confidence.  

Market Metaphor?

This NYC hotel claims that one of its rooms is not only a tourist attraction, but is “art”. Art that starts to smell bad in warm weather.

Room Covered In Melted Cheese

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Why Isn't The Stimulus Stimulating? Seems Like Speed Will Matter. (Forbes)
• World Economy Tracking or Doing Worse than the Great Depression. (VoxEU)
• Morgan Stanley Topples Goldman as M&A Leader this Year. (NYPost)
• List of Banks with the Biggest Profits and Losses Last Year. (Economist)
• Tech Sector Strength May Be Weaker than Claimed. (Barrons)
• Why Computers Can't - Yet - Consistently Beat the Market. (Forbes)
• Michael Jakson's Debt, Private Equity & His Hedge Fund Backer. (FinAlternatives)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• What Is Your Favorite Michael Jackson Song? Interactive Retrospective. (NYTimes)
• Windows 7 at Half Price: Why is Microsoft Offering Discounts? (InformationWeek)
• New Defense Industry Niche: Researchers Developing Tiny Flying Spies. (Forbes)
• New Book on the Secret History of the National Security Agency. (USNews)
• Super-Intelligence: When Will Computers Be Smarter Than Us? (Forbes)
• Google Voice: Smarter Phone Calls for Your Smart Phones. (NewScientist)
• Can You Get Fit in Six Minutes a Week? The Research is Promising. (NYTimes)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Happy Dance Postcards From Around The World

I found this strangely compelling and fun to watch. 

Been there, want to go there, hadn't even heard of there ... I've flown over 4 million miles, and enjoyed realizing I haven't even scratched the surface, yet.

Why watch a video of a guy doing his happy dance in various places around the world?  See for yourself. 

Here is a link to several of his videos and a link to his website.

Is Genius Something You Have or Something You Are?

Some of my greatest accomplishments seemed almost effortless when they happened.

Some people call it "Flow" while others call it "Being-In-The-Zone". You've probably experienced the same thing.

Genius may be related to that. As I think of it, some of my best ideas seemingly came to me fully-formed.

For example, in 2003 I had a breakthrough discovery resulting in an algorithm now used in a series of trading systems. Leading up to that point, I had spent quite a long time thinking about every little aspect in detail; and the progress had come slowly and painfully. Then, whoosh, it's like the whole thing came all at once.  I say (and I believe) that it came to me, through me, and from me.  But I still don't know how or why it happened.  It is almost like I was television or radio receiver that somehow got turned into a channel broadcasting something worthwhile.

Since then, I've tried to re-create the environment, my work process, anything to bring back that feeling of inspiration, innovation and progress.  And I have had moments like that from time-to-time.

The Ted Talk Video on Genius:

This video is about the process I described above.  It is about "Genius" and whether it's something you "Have" or something you "Are".

While this video does not provide answers, hopefully it will stimulate a thought process and provoke some ideas and discussions that you find helpful and enjoyable. I know it did for me.

Here is the direct link.

Elizabeth Gilbert, the author of Eat, Pray, Love, muses on the impossible things we expect from artists and geniuses -- and shares the idea that, instead of the rare person "being" a genius, all of us "have" a genius.

Also, here's a link to a website that lists the daily routines and work process that various famous people have used. I found some interesting things there.

So Bad, It's Good

Microsoft has a new product that people use to create a new genre of really bad music.  I have to admit that I enjoy it, even though it's like watching a train wreck.

Microsoft just released Songsmith, a product where you sing the words as best you can, and its software supplies computer-matched musical accompaniment. The truth is that it probably has some pretty advanced technology.

It has become trendy to take a vintage rock video, strip out the instruments, and then let Songsmith process the classic song in "unexpected" ways.  So, if you want to hear the Police's song, Roxanne, differently than you had before ... Songsmith is the right tool for that job.

To make things worse (or better) Microsoft's promotional video for Songsmith is so bad that it is painful to watch.  It is so campy I suspect it was done intentionally to generate buzz. You've got to see it to believe it.

Here is the direct link. 

For the record, I'm a fan of Microsoft.  It may not be a popular position to take, but I like and use lots of their software.  They come up with many innovative things.  The ad, above, may not be their best effort. So watch and listen for yourself?

Here is the result of Songsmith processing the classic Police song, Roxanne.

Remember, you get to choose lots of options, like tempo, style, and instruments.  So, someone wanted it to sound like this.  Still, it speaks for itself, doesn't it?  Here is the direct link.

Here's one with a slightly better result ... Oasis' Wonderwall.

Here is the direct link.

Here are a few other links worth checking.  Remember, real music sounds better when this stops.

• Here is a link to a Techcrunch article about Songsmith and its ad.
• Here is a link to a collection of other horrific Songsmith versions of Billy Idol, The Cars, etc.
• Here is a link to more strange re-mixes.
• Here is a link to a spoof of the ad that isn't politically correct, but you may find funny.
• Here is a link to Microsoft's product page for Songsmith.
• And if you still want more, search for "Classic Hits by Microsoft Songsmith" on YouTube.

Resonant Chamber

This Animusic video is mesmerizing.  The animation is better than what you find in many video games and adds something to the music, which is pretty good in-and-of itself. 

The video was not animated by humans.  Instead, the studio that created this video invented an animation engine that analyzes the notes in a piece of music and the engine's algorithms animate from there.

Fascinating; check-it-out for yourself.

Here is a direct link to the video on YouTube.  Animusic has their own YouTube Channel.

Data Visualization of President Obama's Inauguration Speech

Here are two interactive ways to look at and understand what was said.

Go to Wordle's site to make one yourself.  You can choose colors and layouts to get the look you want.

Also, here is a Word Tree from IBM's Many Eyes site.  I like this type of tool because you can interact with the data.  Type in any word you see in the Word Cloud above.  This will show you every instance of that word, in context.

Also, here is an embedded link to a version you can interact with yourself.  I suggest you start with words frequently used in the speech like: Nation, People, Today, New and Must.  You can also try phrases like "We Will".

The Word Tree tool is interesting and useful. Also, I can see how it will work in a business setting with business plans, proposals, marketing material, etc.  This is very cool; and it is easy to build a word tree on your own data at Many Eyes.  Have Fun. 

Other Links:

• Word Clouds of Inaugurations Compared (Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Lincoln). (Read Write Web)
• Hand-Drawn Mindmap of Obama's Speech. (Agerbeck)
• Photosynth Image of Inauguration site. (Mashable)
• Another Inauguration site panorama with incredible detail. (Gigapan)
• Pictures of Obama's Inauguration from Space; puts things in a different perspective. (GeoEye)

The Year in Pictures

Browse through some of the best pictures from 2008.  A picture is worth a thousand words; some that come to mind are beautiful, shocking, and surprising ...

It took me way too long to put this list together.  Why?  Because I started browsing and enjoying myself.  Hope you do too.

Here are some Best Photos-of-the-Year sites worth looking at as we close out 2008.

• Boston Globe's Big Picture Series (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3)
• Stunning Pictures and Photos (Smashing Magazine)
• LATimes Best of Photo 2008 Series.
• A Year in Pictures (MSNBC, Agency France, and DocStoc)
• Pixeteria (Best of 2008 Galleries, People's Choice, Editor's Choice, Weather)
• Reuters has lots of great graphic content (100 Best of 2008 & Different Best of Slideshow)
• National Geographic (Editor's Choice, Best Animal Pics, DCP)

Here are some that are just for fun.

• A collection of "weird" people (Chive)
• A collection of "funny kid" pics (Chive)
• A collection of "perfectly timed" photos (Chive)

Here are some others that are from "artier" sources.

• Flickr's Hivemind
• Some Flickr High Dynamic Range Photos (Set 1 and Set 2)
• Photo.net Picture Finder Filter (Photo.net)
• 10 Picture worth a look. (XciteFun.net)
• Interesting photo hosting site (Pixdaus)

In 2008, many traders felt "over their heads" ...

It was scary for much of the year ...

Still, here is what I'll leave you with ... Winter always comes before Spring.

Best wishes for a Happy New Year.

Photology - A New Way To Find What You're Looking For

Overwhelmed by too many photos?  Too busy to sort and tag them?  Try this.

Photology helps you navigate the flood of digital photos on your computer by finding photos using simple and intuitive filters like faces, sky, color, location, and time of day ... automatically.

Can't find the photo of you in that pink silk jacket from the 4th of July party on the beach a few years ago? No problem, even with seemingly endless folders of random photos.  You know the expression, "finding a needle in a haystack," right? Thanks to Photology, haystacks of photos will get a lot smaller, making it much easier to find the "needle" you're looking for – even if that needle is an a pink jacket.

How do you do it?  Well, like this.

First stop questioning why you own a pink silk jacket.  Then start remembering what you can.  It was a few years ago (probably 2006).  The photo was of faces.  It was outside.  You were wearing pink.  And It was sunset. 

You can also combine, mix, and match any or all of these tidbits from your memory to find your photo.  It is fast, fun, and very easy to use.

Try it yourself with this online demo.  After the demo launches, try the filter options on the left.

I paid this software - and it was worth it.  Now it is free; an even better value proposition.  I'm still going to use Photoshop Elements for the heavier lifting ... Still, Photology has its place in the toolbox.

So click here to download the software.

Happy Holiday Season Wishes

I put together a short photo album and holiday card.  I hope you'll click this to watch.

Make a Smilebox photobook

Best wishes for a happy holiday season and a terrific 2009.

"Stand By Me" Music Video from the Playing for Change: Peace Through Music Project

I saw this and thought it was worth sharing.  It is a video of different musicians, around the globe, combining their talents to create a worthwhile version of of the classic "Stand By Me". 

Here is the direct link to the video.

"Playing for Change: Peace Through Music" isn't really a documentary as much as a global concert film, recorded on the streets of New Orleans, Barcelona, South Africa, Tibet and elsewhere.  The filmmakers (Mark Johnson and Jonathan Walls) traveled across the globe, finding musicians to record versions of "Stand By Me" and Bob Marley's "One World" by themselves, and without any of the individual musicians ever having met each other. The finished project combines these performances to create an a "music video" of these artists playing together on these inspirational songs, as well as playing their own music.

The purpose of the project is to help impoverished people in the areas visited, and to show how music brings people together regardless of their cultural differences.  Find out more at Playing For Change.