Capitalogix Commentary 09/27/10 - Still Following the Script

The market followed it's well-orchestrated script last week. After finally pushing above the key resistance level, there was a pause, as we waited for buyers to jump in and rally things higher. However, the market saw little real buying, and prices drifted back down to re-test the 1020 support level. When the sellers didn't jump at the opportunity, it was time for another gap higher.  And that is exactly what we got.

What Does Wall Street Sentiment Show?

The weekly Wall Street Sentiment Survey is unique because the poll is taken after the close on Friday, and those polled are asked only to predict where the market will close as of the end of the following week -- up, down, or neutral (no opinion). In other words, everyone is on the same page, and only short-term projections are solicited.

Carl Swenlin notes that bearish readings of greater than 65% often precede price tops by a week or two. Reliability seems to be enhanced if a high percentage of bears occurs during an advance.


The most recent reading of 75% bears has occurred during a modest advance, so it is probably a good idea to curb bullish enthusiasm.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Volcker is Pessimistic, Says 'Financial System Is Broken'. (Dealbook)
• The Housing Crisis: A New Wave Of Distressed Home Sales. (WP)
• Do B-of-A Layoffs Signal Weakness in Investment Banking and M&A? (Fox)
• Blockbuster Files for Bankruptcy. (Dealbook)
• Dell Looks For $60 Billion in Revenue This Year. (Reuters)

• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Bill Gates Tops Forbes 400 Ranking of Richest Americans With $54 Billion. (Bloomberg)
• Is that Bill Gates Mug-Shot Hiding in Outlook 2010? I'll Bet He Didn't Know. (arstechnica)
• Women Apologize More Frequently Than Men: Here's Why. (ScientificAmerican)
• Michael Douglas Cashes-In Again on No. 1 'Wall Street'. (USAToday)
• Myths That Everyone Believes. Well, not "Everybody" ... (MyDoubts)

• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

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• Sentiment Overview: Week Of September 23rd, 2010 (tradersnarrative.com)
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• Comfort Zone Investing: What I Think the Markets Are Saying (bloggingstocks.com)
• The 10 Best Quotes From Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps (businessinsider.com)
• How Oliver Stone Got the Greed Right (businessweek.com)