Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • The Great Rebranding of Gambling: Will the Pendulum Swing Back?

    There was a time when gambling came with a certain social stigma. Casinos occupied their own corner of the cultural imagination, bookies operated behind closed doors, and betting was something many people did quietly, if at all. Gambling was associated with vice, desperation, or the occasional reckless weekend in Las Vegas (or the worst of the daytraders). You rarely heard of people gambling between meetings, while watching TV, or while scrolling through your phone on the couch.

    Somewhere along the way, that changed. Gambling didn’t just become more accessible. It became cool, frictionless, and increasingly indistinguishable from ordinary entertainment.

    A recent Visual Capitalist ranking of online gambling by country offers a glimpse of how thoroughly the habit has spread.

    Based on second-quarter 2025 survey data, 19.6% of internet users aged 16 and older in the United Kingdom visited an online gambling or betting platform in the previous month. In Australia, the figure was 18%. In the United States, it was 10.2%. South Africa and Norway topped the ranking, at 32.3% and 31.2%, respectively. These figures measure participation, not the amount wagered, but they point to a world in which online betting has become a routine part of life for millions.

    The transformation is especially striking in America, where the smartphone has made gambling possible almost anywhere, at almost any time. Since the Supreme Court cleared the way for states to legalize sports betting in 2018, betting companies have worked to make wagering feel less like a trip to a casino and more like an extension of being a sports fan. Odds are embedded in broadcasts. Promotions arrive on phones. Betting slips sit alongside box scores, fantasy lineups, and social feeds.

    And then there are the platforms that complicate the definition of gambling itself.

    Stake has built a global brand around online casino games and sports betting, wrapped in the aesthetics of internet culture, livestreaming, and influencer entertainment. Underdog, by contrast, has built its identity around fantasy sports and related contests, including products whose legal classification depends on their structure and jurisdiction. Other players include FanDuel, DraftKings, ReBet, and more. They are not identical businesses, and their products do not all fall under the same legal rules. But they illustrate a broader shift: wagering can be packaged as gaming, competition, skill, community, or financial opportunity, rather than simply gambling.

    Gambling has been rebranded as gaming … similarly, speculative trading has increasingly been rebranded as financial empowerment. Robinhood built confetti animations and push notifications into options trades — the same dopamine loop that keeps someone pulling a slot machine lever (it later pulled the confetti after regulators pushed back). Both are accessible through apps, wrapped in slick interfaces, and marketed around the possibility of making money.

    While trading can (and should) use technology, research, valuation, risk management, and disciplined strategies, accessibility has made it easier to treat it flippantly.

    The Stories You Tell Become Real

    The language matters. A bet can become a fantasy contest. A wager can become a prediction. Risk can be presented as a game of skill. The terminology may reflect genuine differences in how products work and how laws classify them. Still, it can also soften the cultural associations that once came with putting money on an uncertain outcome. The experience is increasingly gamified; the financial risk remains.

    Gambling’s great rebranding is that it no longer needs to look or seem like gambling.

    The irony is that the normalization of betting may be creating the conditions for a new kind of stigma. When wagering was less accessible, the risks were easier to avoid. Today, the same technology that makes betting convenient can make it continuous. And when gambling becomes woven into the entertainment itself, the boundary between enjoying a game and risking money on it begins to blur.

    Public sentiment about gambling is still mixed. A 2025 Pew Research Center survey found that 43% of U.S. adults considered the legalization of sports betting in much of the country a bad thing for society, up from 34% in 2022. The share who said it was bad for sports also increased, from 33% to 40%. The industry is becoming more visible, but so are concerns about its effects.

    Will the pendulum swing back?

    History suggests that cultural acceptance is rarely permanent, particularly when the consequences of a newly normalized behavior become harder to ignore. A backlash need not mean a return to outright prohibition. It could take the form of tighter advertising restrictions, limits on promotional incentives, greater scrutiny of influencer partnerships, or renewed pressure to separate sports coverage from betting marketing. It could also be a quieter cultural shift, in which people begin to see ubiquitous wagering less as harmless fun and more as an industry competing for their attention and money.

    The counterargument is that gambling has always adapted. Lotteries, casinos, horse racing, and sports betting have survived decades of moral disapproval by changing their presentation and finding new audiences. Today’s platforms have powerful incentives to keep betting socially acceptable, and many customers regard it as a legitimate form of entertainment when practiced within their means.

    Perhaps the pendulum won’t swing all the way back. Perhaps gambling will remain legal and mainstream while becoming less culturally fashionable, much as other industries have learned that widespread participation does not guarantee public approval.

    But the most interesting question is whether a generation raised to think of betting as just another feature of entertainment will eventually reconsider that assumption. When every game offers a wager, every prediction has a price, and every spare moment presents an opportunity to play, what happens when people begin to feel that the house has followed them everywhere?

  • The Psychology of the Average Gambler

    Vegas and Wall Street share a lot in common. Both want you to keep playing.

    Over Time … The House Wins

    Casinos don’t need to win every hand or every spin. They need an edge that holds up over time.

    Customers, on the other hand, often play for the rush of a win, the possibility of a big payout, or the feeling that they’re getting closer to a breakthrough. Random rewards reinforce the behavior. A string of losses can make a win feel even more satisfying, encouraging someone to keep playing long after the odds have turned against them.

    Trading can trigger the same psychological responses.

    A profitable trade feels good. A near miss can feel like evidence that you’re almost there. And a loss can create an urge to make the money back quickly.

    The danger is that these feelings can start driving decisions that should be based on evidence. The “House” knows this and engineers an experience to exploit it.  

    Casinos meticulously craft every detail to extract your money … from carpet patterns to labyrinthine layouts, the music, the lights, and even the games themselves. 

    Here is an infographic that lays it out for you. 

    Casino-psychology-infographicBojoko via DailyInfographic

    Most people aren’t gamblers … the fear of losing big inhibits them. But frame the same bet as a trade instead of a wager, and that fear eases. The label changes the behavior more than the odds do.

    The illusion of control convinces us we can overcome the statistics. 

    When you almost get it right – when you miss the jackpot by one slot on a slot machine, or a trade that would have been a big winner – you’re more likely to play longer and place bigger bets … because you’re “so close”. 

    It’s human nature to want to feel in control. 

    That is why you find so many superstitious traders & gamblers. If you wear this lucky item of clothing … if you throw the dice in this particular way … if you check your holdings at this time every day … you have control. 

    There is a big difference between causation and correlation. 

    This is one of the hardest lessons in trading because the feedback is imperfect. A sound decision can lose money, and a poor decision can make money. One outcome rarely tells you enough to distinguish between skill and luck.

    Likewise, for many traders, most of their focus and activity do little to create a real, lasting edge.  

    Skill vs. Luck

    There are games of skill, and there are games of chance.

    In a casino, poker and blackjack are considered games of skill. In contrast, slot machines are games of chance.

    In trading, predicting markets is very different from using math and statistics to measure a technique’s performance.

    Much of what we do is to eliminate the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes humans bring to trading.

    In trading, “Alpha” measures excess return attributed to manager skill, rather than luck or taking on more risk.

    At Capitalogix, we believe in Alpha-by-Avoidance … Meaning much of what we do is figuring out what to ignore or avoid so that most of the games we play are skill-based rather than chance-based.

    A casino’s edge is structural and fixed — it doesn’t have to be earned twice. A systematic process’s edge isn’t like that. It has to be tested, re-tested, and earned again every time the market changes. That’s the whole point of insisting on skill instead of assuming it.

    That means being selective.

    It means recognizing that a compelling story isn’t necessarily a useful signal. It means testing whether an apparent pattern holds up beyond the examples that first caught our attention. And it means being willing to abandon an idea when the evidence no longer supports it.

    In a world overflowing with data, filtering out the noise becomes as important as finding the signal.

    Are you playing the right game?

  • What To Do When Optimization Takes The Fun Out of Everything …

    I recently saw a Reddit thread comparing McDonald’s and Hot Wheels in the 1990s with their modern counterparts. The images were meant to show how much color, character, and personality seemed to have disappeared.

    via r/SipsTea

    Millennials tend to think everything was better in the ’90s, and while that’s demonstrably not true, corporate design was less brutalist.

    The comparison felt a little nostalgic, but it got me thinking about a real business problem: What happens when companies focus so much on optimization that they lose sight of what made people love them in the first place?

    Capitalism Rules

    Capitalism is remarkably good at creating things people want. Competition gives entrepreneurs a reason to build better products, take risks, challenge established players, and find entirely new markets. McDonald’s made fast food an experience, not just a meal. Hot Wheels made a little toy car feel like an adventure.

    But success changes the incentives.

    Once a company has established its position, the challenge can shift from making a better product to making the existing product more efficiently. Can we reduce manufacturing costs? Simplify the experience? Remove a feature without hurting sales? Improve margins by another fraction of a percent?

    Individually, these decisions can make perfect sense. Collectively, they can produce something that works just fine but feels like a shell of what it used to be. The magic fades, and trouble sits just off in the horizon, waiting for a disruptor to bring it to light.

    You can see a similar pattern around town. Compared with much of the architecture and construction many of us remember from the 1990s, so much new development can feel repetitive and interchangeable. There are understandable reasons for that, from construction costs and zoning requirements to financing constraints and the economics of building at scale. Still, it’s worth asking what gets lost when efficiency and predictability dominate every decision.

    You can even see it in trading. Over-optimize a strategy against its own backtest, and you can curve-fit your way to a beautiful equity curve that has nothing to do with how markets actually behave going forward.

    Don’t Optimize On The Wrong Metrics …

    The irony is that optimizing away these qualities may be the very things that once differentiated the business. Color. Character. Craftsmanship. Surprise. The little details that make someone choose your product even when a cheaper or more convenient alternative exists.

    When every competitor follows the same playbook, optimization can become a race to the bottom. Everyone gets a little more efficient, but nobody gives customers a compelling reason to care.

    That creates an opportunity, too. When established companies leave customers wanting more, a competitor can win by bringing back what was lost or by creating something entirely new that incumbents have stopped looking for.

    For entrepreneurs, the question isn’t whether to optimize. Of course we should. The question is what we’re optimizing for, and whether our metrics capture the things customers actually value.

    Are we measuring what matters, or just what’s easy to measure? Are we improving the experience, or simply reducing the cost of delivering it? And when we look at our own products five or ten years from now, will we see something more useful, more distinctive, and more valuable, or just more cheaper & more efficient?

    The goal shouldn’t be to preserve everything the way it was. It should be to make progress without losing the spark.

    As you continue to use exponential technologies, it becomes more important to decide how much you prioritize your ‘Why’ over your ‘What’ and ‘How’.

  • Can We Predict The Future?

    New technologies fascinate me … As we approach the Singularity, I guess that is becoming human nature. 

    Ray Kurzweil (a well-respected futurist, inventor, and entrepreneur) optimistically predicts accelerating returns and exponential progress, arguing that 21st-century technological advances will be far more significant and disruptive than those of previous centuries. Kurzweil believes: “The next century won’t feel like 100 years of progress—it will feel like 20,000.”

    However, a tension exists between our ability to imagine grand futures and our struggle to execute the how—the messy, uncertain work of getting there.

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb (a noted expert on randomness, probability, complexity, and uncertainty) reminds us that, “We often overestimate what we know and underestimate uncertainty.” Likewise, “continuous forward motion” can sometimes lead to dead ends, and speed without thoughtful direction can be dangerous.

    This is true in part because technology adoption often depends more on human nature than on technology’s absolute value. 

    This post is about embracing the paradox: valuing vision while practicing the discipline of small, progressive steps.

    Dreaming vs. Doing

    Recognize that the future is co-authored by dreamers and doers.

    In a 1966 interview, Marshall McLuhan discussed the future of information with ideas that now resonate with AI technologies. He envisioned personalized information, where people request specific knowledge and receive tailored content … like ChatGPT.

    Although McLuhan was against innovation, he recognized the need to understand emerging trends to maintain control and know when to “turn off the button.” 

    Prophecy vs. Navigation

    While we revere “prophetic” moments, most successful outcomes arise from continuous adjustment—not perfect foresight.

    Peter Drucker famously said, “The best way to predict the future is to create it.”

    I’ll say it a different way … It’s more useful to view innovation as navigation, rather than prophecy.

    Like evolution, Success isn’t about strength or certainty — it’s about the ability to adapt quickly and course-correct as conditions change. This mindset urges leaders to embrace agile, resilient strategies that can respond rapidly to emerging opportunities and threats.

    The forecast is almost always wrong … but an adaptive process survives being wrong.

    With that said, activity is not progress if it doesn’t lead you in the right direction. Sometimes, continuous course correction can lead a team in circles. Pausing for periodic reflection and creating feedback loops helps prevent innovation drift. 

    Not all predictions are created equal; we seem to have a better idea of what we want than how to accomplish it. 

    The farther the horizon, the more guesswork is involved. Compared with the prior video on predictions from the mid-1900s, this 1995 internet video seems downright prophetic. 

    via YouTube

    The Distinction Between Envisioning Outcomes and Creating Practical Paths to Them.

    There’s a lesson there. It’s hard to predict the future, but that doesn’t mean you can’t skate to where the puck is moving. Future success goes to those who can quickly sense shifts, reorient, make appropriate decisions, and take action.

    Even when the path ahead is unclear, it’s relatively easy to pick your next step … and then the next. As long as you are moving in the right direction and keep taking steps without stopping, the result is inevitable. 

    In Uncharted Territory, It’s Better to Use a Compass Than a Map

    The distant future may be fuzzy, but our willingness to keep moving—and keep learning—tips the odds in our favor.

    Reflect on the value of looking ahead, not for certainty but for direction.

    Don’t worry if you can’t see your intended destination. Just focus on your next step and trust the journey.

    Remember, there is always a best next step.

    Onwards!

  • Which Colleges Produce the Most Pro Athletes?

    I love data. Often that means diving deeply into heavy or complex issues … but sometimes it means looking at which schools send the most players to the pros, because a friend forwards it to you.

    via NCAA

    It’s not particularly surprising that a school with the vanity to include “the” in its official branding sends the most players to play in the NFL. Though after Nick Saban’s run with Alabama, it may be surprising that they fell short of THE Ohio State.

    I couldn’t find a great NBA companion infographic, but their website lists the most powerful pipeline schools.

    1. Kentucky (29)
    2. Duke (24)
    3. UCLA (14)
    4. Arizona (12)
    5. Arkansas/Gonzaga/Kansas/USC (11)

    It’s nice to see my alma mater (Duke) still producing so much NBA talent after Coach K; I guess there’s a reason they rank among the Blue Bloods.

    In football and basketball, the familiar powerhouses dominate. Rugby tells a different story.

    My son (who helps write these posts) follows professional rugby and decided to do research into which schools produced the most pros. You probably won’t recognize the names, but here they are: Lindenwood, Life University, and St. Mary’s. They’re smaller schools that put a real emphasis on varsity rugby, focusing their athletic resources on sports where they can compete at a high level rather than trying to match the budgets of larger universities in sports like football and basketball.

    The same is true in business: you don’t have to outspend the giants if you pick the arena where your edge compounds. Talent doesn’t always follow the biggest budgets, and success doesn’t always mean trying to compete in everything. Sometimes, it’s about finding the right niche, investing in it, and building a program that consistently produces great results.

    You don’t need to compete at everything against everyone. Have you found your niche?

  • What an 8th-Grade Football Team Knows That Most Businesses Forget

    Hopefully you missed it, but the Dallas Cowboys lost a match to the previously 0-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It was not our best showing.

    Obviously, the Cowboys’ ownership group has done many things right. For the 11th straight year, the Dallas Cowboys are the world’s most valuable sports team, worth an estimated $17 billion—the first to cross the 11-figure threshold and billions beyond their closest competitor.

    They’ve mastered winning in business, even when they struggle on the field.

    So, even though the $17 billion team lost Sunday, its playbook is still worth copying.

    Jerry Jones does a lot right in building his “Disney Ride.” But the coaches and players also offer great real-world business lessons.

    Business Lessons From the NFL

    I’m regularly surprised by the levels of innovation and strategic thinking I see in football.

    I used to love playing football, and it still informs my thoughts and actions.

    Some lessons relate to teamwork, while others relate to coaching or management.

    Some of these lessons stem back to youth football … but I still learn from watching games – and even more, from watching Dallas Cowboys practices at The Star. 

    Think about it …  even in middle school, the coaches have a game plan. There are team practices and individual drills. They have a depth chart listing the first, second, and third choices to fill specific roles. In short, they focus on the fundamentals in ways that most businesses don’t.

    The picture below is of my brother’s high school team (way back in 1989). While a lot has changed since then, much of what we will discuss in this post remains timeless.

    Today

    Losing to an 8th Grade Team

    The scary truth is that most businesses are less prepared for their challenges than an 8th-grade football team. That might sound disrespectful, but if you think about it … it’s pretty accurate.

    Here is a short video highlighting what many businesses can learn from how organized sports teams operate, especially in setting goals and preparing for challenges.

    via YouTube.

    If you’re skimming, here are the key takeaways from the video.

    What Businesses Can Learn From Football

    • Build a system. Teams have clear roles, defined responsibilities, and a shared goal.
    • Prepare to win. Practice, study your competition, and develop a game plan before you need it.
    • Adapt in real time. When the defense surprises you, call an audible. Business strategies should be just as flexible.
    • Learn from the tape. Review what worked, what didn’t, and what you can do better next time.
    • Coach your people. Talent matters, but consistent coaching develops it and makes your team better.

    Let’s look at the Cowboys. 

    Practice Makes Perfect

    How you do one thing is how you do everything. So, they try to do everything right. 

    Each time I’ve watched a practice session, I’ve left impressed by the preparation, effort, and skill on display.

    During practice, there’s a scheduled agenda. The practice is broken into chunks, each with a designed purpose and a desired intensity. Even the breaks have a rhythm.

    Every minute is scripted. There’s a long-term plan for the season … but they also focus on short-term details and the current opponent.

    They alternate between individual and group drills. Moreover, the drills run fast … but for shorter periods than you’d guess. It is bang-bang-bang – never longer than a player’s attention span. They move from drill to drill, working not just on plays but also on skill sets (where you look first, what your read is, which foot you plant, how to best use your hands, etc.).

    They use advanced technology to get an edge (including player geolocation monitoring, biometric tracking, medical recovery devices, robotic tackling dummies, and virtual reality headsets). 

    They don’t just film games; they film the practices … and each player’s individual drills. Coaches and players get a personalized cut on their tablets when they leave. It is a process of constant feedback and constant improvement. Everything becomes the raw material for learning and improvement. 

    Beyond The Snap

    The focus isn’t just on the players and the team. It’s also about the competition.

    Before a game, coaches develop a plan and study film to understand their opponent’s tendencies and prepare players for what they’ll face.

    During the game, teams change personnel and formations to keep opponents guessing. Players read the defense, recognize patterns, and adjust. If the offense sees that the defense is anticipating a play, they call an audible. Coaches at different levels work together to identify problems and respond quickly.

    After the game, they review the film. Coaches grade players on individual performance and identify what each person did well and where they can improve. The goal isn’t just evaluation. It’s to get better.

    Think about it. Everyone knows what game they’re playing, understands the rules, and knows how to keep score. They can see how they’re performing and where they stand. Even coaches are held accountable, evaluated on results, and encouraged to learn from others.

    The Bigger Lesson

    Vince Lombardi famously began training camp by reminding his players, “Gentlemen, this is a football.” His point was simple: master the fundamentals. How you do the little things shapes how you do everything else.

    Football teams don’t just show up on game day and hope to win. They develop their players, study their opponents, practice their plays, and review their mistakes. They focus on winning this week, but also on stringing together wins (wherever they may be, even if it has nothing to do with the game itself) to accomplish something bigger.

    They have a system for getting better.

    Many businesses don’t. Entrepreneurs can get caught up in the day-to-day grind, react to whatever is urgent, and lose sight of how the pieces fit together.

    Football is ultimately a game, but the preparation behind it is anything but casual. Businesses can learn a lot from that discipline.

    What does that look like at a higher level? If an 8th-grade football team already beats most businesses, what would it look like if a business played at an NFL level?

    Now imagine bringing that same level of clarity, preparation, feedback, and accountability to business. How much better could your organization become?

  • Thriving In Uncertainty: The Scary Times Success Manual

    People seem rattled right now, don’t they?

    Between persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, gas prices, trade tensions, and fears about where the economy and markets are headed, there’s plenty to make people uneasy.

    Even though markets and the economy are not the same thing, many voters believe they are. Consequently, as we near midterm elections, I suspect the government will push every button and pull every lever it can to build momentum leading into November.

    We’re in a particularly partisan election year, punctuated by seemingly endless negative news cycles.

    Now, on to the real point … those things don’t matter and shouldn’t steal your focus. Why? Because that’s the playing field we all have to navigate.

    There will be winners and losers. The key distinction lies in whether you choose to focus on opportunities or risk. 

    So I thought this would be a great time to revisit how to cope with losses and manage your anxieties in “scary times.” 

    The Anxiety Antidote

    During scary times, many people struggle with “I should have …”, “if I would have …”, or “if I could have …” thoughts.

    The problem is that thoughts like those create more stress and distraction. 

    I’m reminded of a quote.

    “When the trough gets smaller … the pigs get meaner.” – Dan Sullivan

    Pigs-feeding-at-trough

    Negative focus highlights loss, difficulties, past events, missing things, and what you don’t want.

    Think of them as an unhealthy reflex that wastes energy, confidence, and time.

    All We Have To Fear Is Fear Itself  

    I often talk about market psychology and human nature. The reason is that markets reflect the collective fear and greed of their participants… people tend to get paralyzed during scary times like these.

    But the economy isn’t what makes people feel paralyzed. People feel paralyzed because of their reactions and their beliefs about the economy. Your perception becomes your reality. 

    A little examination reveals that most fear is based on a “general” trigger rather than a “specific” trigger. In other words, people fear everything that could happen and are paralyzed by the sheer scope of possibilities. These things don’t even have to be probabilities to scare them.

    You gain a competitive advantage as soon as you recognize that it’s not logical. Why? Because as soon as you distinguish that fear as not necessarily true, you can refocus your insights and energy on moving forward. You can act instead of react. You make better decisions when you come from a place of calm instead of fear… so create that calm. 

    Even a tough environment like this presents you with opportunities if you watch for them … or even better … if you create them. 

    The Scary Times Success Manual

    The goal is to move forward and feel better.

    Strategic Coach offers ten strategies for transforming negativity and unpredictability into opportunities for growth, progress, and achievement. They call it the “Scary Times Success Manual,” and what follows are some excerpts:

    Forget about your difficulties; focus on your progress.

    Because of some changes, things may not be as easy as they once were. New difficulties can either defeat you or reveal new strengths. Your body’s muscles always get stronger from working against resistance. The same is true for the “muscles” in your mind, spirit, and character. Treat this period of challenge as a time to make your greatest progress as a human being.

    Forget about events; focus on your responses.

    When things are going well, many people think they control events. That’s why they feel so defeated and depressed when things turn bad. They think they’ve lost some fundamental ability. The most consistently successful people in the world know they can’t control events – but continually work toward greater control over their creative responses to events. Periods of uncertainty are an excellent time to focus all your attention and energy on being creatively responsive to the unpredictable events ahead.

    Forget about what’s missing, focus on what’s available.

    When things change for the worse, many desirable resources are inevitably missing – including information, knowledge, tools, systems, personnel, and capabilities. These deficiencies can paralyze many people, who believe they can’t make decisions and take action. A strategic response is to use every resource immediately available to achieve as many small results as possible and make as much daily progress as possible. Focus on recognizing and using every resource and opportunity, and your confidence will continually grow.

    Forget about your complaints; focus on your gratitude.

    When times get tough, everyone must make a fundamental decision: complain or be grateful. In an environment where negative sentiment is rampant, the consequences of this decision are much greater. Complaining only attracts negative thoughts and people. Gratitude, on the other hand, creates the opportunity for the best thinking, actions, and results to emerge. Focus on everything you are grateful for, communicate this, and open yourself to the best possible consequences.

    For more, check out the full version below:

     Click here to download the full PDF version.

    Final Thoughts

    We can speculate and pontificate all day about the short-term causes of the markets’ gains and losses, but I don’t think it does much good. I let the algorithms worry about those. It’s the larger trends we have to stay on top of.

    I sound like a broken record, but volatility is the new normal. Here’s why:

    • Markets exist to trade, and if there’s no “excitement” on either side, trades don’t happen.
    • Trades are getting faster, which means more information has to disturb or confuse both the buyer and the seller.
    • You’re no longer competing solely against companies and traders like you. It’s like the cantina from Star Wars; you’ve got a bunch of different creatures (and bots) interacting and fighting with each other, trying to figure out how to make their way through the universe.

    Pair that with all the fear and uncertainty, and you’ve got a recipe for increased volatility and noise. That means that the dynamic range of a move will be wider and happen in a shorter period of time than ever before. You’ll hear me echo this thought over the next few years as the ranges continue to expand and compress. Cycles that used to play out over weeks often now take just days or hours. The game is still the same; it just takes a slightly different set of skills to recognize where the risks and opportunities are. 

    Today’s paradigm – both in life and trading – is about noise reduction. It’s about figuring out what moves the needle and focusing only on that.

    The crucial distinction is between adding data and adding information. Adding more data does not equal adding more information. In fact, blindly adding data increases your chances of misinformation and spurious correlations.

    My final comment is that there’s a difference between investing and trading, and while humans can invest, if you’re “personally” still trying to trade – you’re likely playing a losing game. If you don’t know what your edge is, you don’t have one. 

    If you’re investing, I’ll advise you to act like a robot. If you removed fear and greed from your decision-making, what would you do?