Last week, I shared an article about creating your annual plan (and how Capitalogix does it). This week, I want to talk more high-level about how we create a bigger future for ourselves, and next week I’ll talk about how I translate that bigger future into resolutions and actions.
The beginning of a new year is an excellent time for a fresh start. While it’s always the right time to take the right action, the structure of a year-end is a helpful crutch and force function.
We look forward to what we will achieve – even though history says we rarely achieve everything we hope for. Meanwhile, paradoxically, it is also true that we rarely achieve things we don’t hope for. So, Hope! It may not be a reliable strategy ... but it beats the alternative.
I’m excited about 2023. Despite the abnormal market, the crazy headlines, and the still volatile political climate, we’re moving toward increased stability.
Even though I expect some volatility, we have become more accustomed to handling it (and we’ve become better at transforming its strategic byproducts into strategic benefits).
On a different topic, think about how much progress we’ve made and how different the “new normal” has become. For example, think about Zoom and remote work or how quickly our economy migrated online. On many levels, what we are doing now seemed like science fiction, even just a few years ago.
We are living in an age of exponential technologies and exponential possibilities.
I commissioned this image from GapingVoid, to remind our team to keep shooting higher.
Resilience, resourcefulness, and a worthy goal are the foundational keys to many entrepreneurial success stories.
In the spirit of New Year’s Resolutions – I’ll add that a deliberate approach to goals is important too.
I’m a big fan of picking a Big Hairy Audacious Goal (sometimes called a “BHAG”) and taking actions that move you in that direction.
I’m also a big fan of Strategic Coach’s Bigger Future exercise. It is a 25-year planning exercise where you lay out your commitments and goals to yourself, your family, your career, and your legacy. One of the keys to this is chunking high enough to name the roles, goals, and strategies you select with timeless language (meaning that the target words hold up even as you pivot and adjust your focus and actions).
While doing this, I realized that my ideal next chunk of years involves taking Capitalogix to the next level (and beyond) through collaboration, cooperation, and joint ventures.
Once you know your long-term goal, it is relatively easy to plan the steps you need to achieve it. Achieving smaller goals reinforces successes, builds momentum, and makes continued progress feel more likely.
Extra points if you make them SMARTs (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Time-Bound).
Actions speak louder than words, and your words can distract you.
If your goal is to win first place at a competition, focus on the metrics of a first-place finish instead of the medal. This makes the goal concrete and sets an internal locus of control for your victory. This also means you don’t need to tell others about your goal too soon. Studies show that when you announce your intention to achieve a goal in public, you decrease the likelihood of succeeding.
It’s okay to misstep, and it’s okay to get stuck - but recognize where you are and what you’ve done ... and move forward.
Delayed gratification happens when you want something badly, but are not able to get it right away. The result is often anger or frustration.
Meanwhile, the mainstream media broadcasts a seemingly non-stop stream of messages screaming for immediate attention and gratification. The result of that is not good either (for example, it can result in higher rates of obesity, drug abuse, and depression).
Don’t be fooled. Overnight successes are rarely actually overnight successes (for long).
It’s also important (once you’ve accomplished your goal) to set new goals.
Over the next 25 years, there are many people I want to impact – and many goals I want to accomplish.
It hasn’t always been easy - but building Capitalogix has been an intensely rewarding passion. It has been easier because I want what I want. Make sure you know what you really want ... it makes getting it much easier.
I look forward to you all being a part of it as well. Here’s to a successful 2023 and an even more successful 2048.
Onwards!
GPT-3: Boom or Bust?
GPT-3 was released by OpenAI in 2020 - and was considered by many a huge jump in natural language processing.
GPT stands for Generative Pre-trained Transformer. It uses deep learning to generate text responses based on an input text. Even more simply, it's a bot that creates a quality of text so high that it can be difficult to tell whether it's written by a human or an AI.
GPT-3 is 100x bigger than any previous language AI model and comes pre-trained on 45TB of training text (499 billion words). It cost at least 4.6 million US dollars (some estimated as high as $12 million) to train on GPUs. The resulting model has 175 billion parameters. On top of that, it can be tuned to your specific use after the fact.
Here are some interesting GPT-3 based tools:
Practically, GPT-3 was a huge milestone. It represents a huge jump in NLP's capabilities and a massive increase in scale. That being said, there was a frenzy in the community that may not match the results. To the general public, it felt like a discontinuity; like a big jump toward general intelligence.
To me, and to others I know in the space, GPT-3 represents a preview of what's to come. It's a reminder that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is coming and that we need to be thinking about the rules of engagement and ethics of AI before we get there.
Especially with Musk unveiling his intention to build 'friendly' robots this week.
On the scale of AI's potential, GPT-3 was a relatively small step. It's profoundly intelligent in many ways - but it's also inconsistent and not cognitively concrete enough.
Take it from me, the fact that an algorithm can do something amazing isn't surprising to me anymore ... but neither is the fact that an amazing algorithm can do stupid things more often than you'd suspect. It is all part of the promise and the peril of exponential technologies.
It's hard to measure the intelligence of tools like this because metrics like IQ don't work. Really it comes down to utility. Does it help you do things more efficiently, more effectively, or with more certainty?
For the most part, these tools are early. They show great promise, and they do a small subset set of things surprisingly well. If I think about them simply as a tool, a backstop, or a catalyst to get me moving when I'm stuck ... the current set of tools is exciting. On the other hand, if you compare current tools to your fantasy of artificial general intelligence, there are a lot of things to be improved upon.
Clearly, we are making progress. Soon, GPT-4 will take us further. In the meantime, enjoy the progress and imagine what you will do with the capabilities, prototypes, products, and platforms you predict will exist for you soon.
Onwards.
Posted at 08:13 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Gadgets, Ideas, Market Commentary, Science, Trading Tools, Web/Tech, Writing | Permalink | Comments (0)
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