Capitalogix

The Show Must Go On (But In VR)

Several states are conditionally reopening. 

As they reopen, it's important to think about a new normal. I'm excited about what we'll accomplish on the backside of this pandemic. 

It challenged what we do and how we do it.  In many ways, the thing that doesn't kill you makes you stronger.

With that said, I saw this video, and it struck a chord. It shows a famous orchestra playing the theme to 2001: A Space Odyssey updated for 2020's social distancing. You’ve got classical music played by classical musicians – together, but only via technology.  This new form borrows from the past but creates something new.  As a result, we experience a new dawn.

via Opera North

I encourage you to think about what the Quarantine made better for you, your family, your business, the country, or the world?

 Sure, there are things that suck ... but there are things that surprised! 

Think about the things that you did more of during this period.  Are there new things that will make sense to continue as we move back to normal?  Are there things that you did less of – and it somehow made things better (or made room for better things)?

How can you combine the best of the old with the best of the new to create something even better?

Things are going back to normal ... but you get to decide your new normal ... and it can be better than your past.

Stay safe and enjoy the ride,

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - March 1st, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

 

• When that AI Company' Isn't Really an AI Company. (TechCrunch)
• The Catholic Church Proposes AI Regulations that Protect People'. (TheVerge)
• Musicians Algorithmically Generate Every Possible Melody, Release Them to Public Domain. (Vice)
• Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Suspends Pilgrimage Visas Amid Coronavirus Concerns. (Worldview)
• Warren Buffett Says He Prefers Mike Bloomberg in the Democratic Presidential Race. (CNW)

 

 

Trading Links:

• Dow Loses 12% for Week on Coronavirus Panic; Fed Says It Will Act 'Appropriately'. (TheStreet)
• These are the Only 7 Stocks in the S&P 500 that Rose While the Market Plunged. (MarketWatch)
• Gold Prices Tumble Amid Reports of Margin Calls. (Investing)
• Nearly 40% of Europeans in Their Late 20S Still Live at Home. (Quartz)
• MIT Published a List of the 9 MegaTrends that Will Shape the World in 2030. Here's What They All Have in Common. (Inc)

Mountains Out of Molehills: Media Inflammation

The U.S. stock market had a rough week (like most markets around the world). The Dow Jones Industrial Average (the "Dow") had one of its worst weeks since the financial crisis in 2008, losing about 12%.

Still, the Dow is near its historical highs, and the fundamentals of our economy aren't in freefall (as one might guess with all the fearmongering). 

As I mentioned last week, many attribute the drop to the Coronavirus and its potential effect on trade, travel, industry, etc.  For example, several prominent news sources released (hopefully erroneous) articles stating that 38% of beer drinkers wouldn't drink Corona due to the Coronavirus.  Yup!

There are two key points I want to make. The first is that the media tends to make mountains out of molehills (because their job is to get you to pay attention to their news) and the second is that markets are random to you or me. 

Mountains Out of Molehills

It shouldn't come as a surprise to you that the media exacerbates situations. Whether it's a terrorist attack, a virus scare, or a bad trading day - the media posts headlines and teasers designed more to attract attention than to educate. 

The interactive graphic below shows the news cycle for things ranging from asteroids and vaccines to ebola and zika.  An interesting reminder.

(Click To View Interactive Infographic) via InformationIsBeautiful

The result is hysteria, fear and greed, or discretionary mistakes ... all things better avoided. 

Regardless, when it comes to trading, if you don't know what your edge is ... you don't have one.  And it's tough to find a "signal" in a sea of noise. 

via Gaping Void

Markets Are Random

Experienced traders have a saying: it isn't the news that matters ... what matters is the reaction to the news.  Consequently, part of the reason that markets seem random is that you or I can't predict the market's changes (accurately and reliably) based on the information we have.  In other words, if market profits were easily captured by being smart and well informed, professors wouldn't teach because they'd be on their yachts. 

This past week,  you could attribute the losses to fear of the Coronavirus ... but there are also fears around the 2020 election, the fact that stocks were already considered overvalued, fears of recession, and more.

You don't know how much was caused by program trading or bots reacting to bots – or by a host of less obvious potential causes or contributing factors, like businesses either liquidating or taking positions in the regular course of their business (meaning as bona fide purchasers rather than speculators).

The truth is no one knows for sure what caused the drop.

Nonetheless, one thing that you should know is that volatility and noise will increase.  It is almost inevitable.

Humans have a need for certainty and understanding. So when we don't know why something happens we find stories to fill in those gaps. But they're just that ... They're stories. We can theorize all day long about what's moving the market, but it makes no difference.

It's not what happens that matters, it is what you do that matters. 

Onwards!

Coronavirus Tracker

Fears around the Coronavirus continue to mount. Quarantine of the superbug has been tough ... the disease shows up in more countries every week, and the death toll is likely being underreported in China. 

That being said, the death toll compared to the "recovered" toll should give you hope that if you're relatively healthy and get proper treatment, your survivability rate is very high.

Here is an interactive tracker if you're curious to see a visual representation of it's spread.

 

1hakr via Visualist.io

Keeping yourself at a low risk of contraction is pretty simple. You know what you need to do to avoid it, but, as a reminder: wash your hands, don't share food/drinks with strangers, avoid touching your face, and don't go to China till you believe the "all clear."

How do you believe this will affect the markets and economy?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading, February 23rd, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• What It Means to Be Human in the Age of AI. (CNet)
• Mommy Can't Talk Right Now She's Dopamine Fasting. (TheCut)
• I Went to a High-End Psychedelic Retreat to Address My Anxiety. (Vice)
• Inside the World of High-End Coffee | Annals of Obsession | the New Yorker. (YouTube)
• Most Dietary Supplements Don't Do Anything. Why Do We Spend $35 Billion a Year on Them? (WashPost)

 

Trading Links:

• Why Cryptocurrency Markets Defy the Laws of Economics. (BU)
• Michael Bloomberg Has Taken Andrew Yang's Place as the Cryptocurrency Candidate. (TechReview)
• It Has Never Been Easier to Launch a New Brand. (Economist)
• Elon Musk's SpaceX to Raise $250 Million, Valuing It at $36 Billion. (Uk)
• Elon Musk Says He'll Put a Million People on Mars by 2050. (Futurism)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading, February 2nd, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• MIT Professors Sound Alarm on US Falling Behind on AI. (CA)
• Doomsday Clock Moves to 100 Seconds to Midnight - Closest Point to Nuclear Annihilation Since Cold War. (FoxNews)
• The Bill Belichick Trade Turns 20 on Monday. (ProFootballTalk)
• Incentive Competitions and the Challenge of Space Exploration. (Interesting Engineering)
• How Time-Travel Works in Fiction: a Concise Breakdown of How Time Travel Functions in Popular Movies, Books & TV Shows. (OpenCulture)

 

Trading Links:

• Peter Diamandis: in the next 10 Years, We'll Reinvent Every Industry'. (TheGuardian)
• 5,000 Years of Interest Rates. (DailyReckoning)
• Will We Ever Stop Talking about the VIX? (RCM Alternatives)
• How to Make a Billion Dollars on Horse Racing. (Bloomberg)
• Tesla is More Valuable Than GM, Ford CombinedDespite Selling 98% Fewer Cars. (Observer)

 

 

Autonomous Lyft - Waymo

I went to a conference in Phoenix with my son Zach last week.  While there, he noticed something interesting ... Lyft is testing Alphabet's Waymo autonomous driving service live on the streets.

Regardless of concerns about the future of the gig economy – this is a glimpse into our not-to-distant future.  

Here's what they say about it.

I had to leave early to catch a flight, so my son decided to use Lyft to get around.  He accepted the Waymo terms, but didn't get a Waymo vehicle. Still, I thought this was cool.

 

There will likely soon be a tipping point where autonomous vehicles proliferate.  Even though we are not "there" yet ... the progress is obvious and the "quickening" is happening. 

Meanwhile, examples of innovation and exponential technology successes and adoption are all around us. 

The future is getting closer. 

Onwards.

I See You

It feels like we're always being watched, right?

It's not just me?

From governments, to Google, to Facebook ... it feels like it's impossible to have any expectation of privacy today. Amazon knows what I want before I do. 

This is an issue that cuts both ways. On the one hand, increased surveillance means we are arguably safer – because the digital omniscience makes it harder to get away with crimes ... but all this extra data on us makes it easier to commit other crimes and to suffer from the increasing lack of privacy. 

Paul Bischoff via Comparitech

Unsurprisingly, 8 of the top 10 most-surveilled cities in the world were in China. It's even less surprising with the Hong Kong protests and the new social credit system. 

My eldest son spent several years focused on cybersecurity. One of his "warnings" was that everyone's been hacked - not everyone has been targeted. 

I find that somewhat comforting. 

If everyone's information is out there, that's a lot of noise to sift through. 

Still, this is one of the issues that will be increasingly important.  Big Data with an AI parser creates a new set of promises and perils.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 13th, 2019

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• We May Be Closing in on the Discovery of Alien Life. are We Prepared? (NBCNews)
• An Ant Colony Has Memories Its Individual Members Don't Have. (TheNextWeb)
• Meat is Unhealthy, Meat is Okay: Why Science Keeps Overturning What We Thought We Knew. (Vox)
• Entries in the 2020 Sony World Photography Awards. (The Atlantic)
• Google Has Suspended Its Controversial Field Research' that Allegedly Scanned Homeless People. (TheVerge)

 

Trading Links:

• This Chart Ranks Everyone (Even You) by Their Wealth, and It's a Snapshot of Inequality. (CNBC)
• The Downside to Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade Eliminating Trading Fees. (MarketWatch)
• Job Losses in 2019 Highest in 4 Years as Manufacturing and Auto Industries Falter . (24/7 Wall St)
• Trump Administration Slaps 25% Tariff on Single Malt Scotch Whisky Imports. (Forbes)
• Former Nasdaq Boss Robert Greifeld Says We'll Remember WeWork as When the 'Unicorn' Bubble Burst. (CNBC)

 

 

Country Comparisons: Harvard's Economic Dynamics Data-Viz

Harvard's Center for International Development put together a tool that I think is pretty cool. It's called the Atlas of Economic Complexity.  Its goal is to get you to think differently about the economic strategy, policy, and investment opportunities for individual countries. 

Each country's profile analyzes its economic dynamics and future growth prospects, including which industries are burgeoning. They made it look pretty as well.  If you're curious about specific questions, you can use their exploration function instead. 

via Atlas of Economic Complexity

Interesting stuff.  Play around. Compare. Enjoy!