Capitalogix

2/3 Of Global Stocks Are Down Since Last Year

Statistics can be misleading.  For example, if markets are near the highs, they must be strong; right?

Gavekal Research recently put out a note that caught my eye.

Since 5/21/2015 (the date that the MSCI World Index made a high), 2 out of 3 mid-large cap stocks have declined.

The histogram below shows the number of companies in Gavekal's version of the MSCI All-Country World Index that have had positive performance (green) or negative performance (red) since 5/21/2015.  

 

 via Gavekal.

Overall, 66% of stocks have declined over the past year -- while just 34% have posted unchanged or positive performance. 

Interesting, but does that show opportunity or hidden weakness?

 

Related Articles

A Closer Look: World Markets

Don't worry about bad breadth

Stock Market Breadth: Weakness Extends to the Large Caps

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

A friend of mine just bet me that Trump would win the election.  So far, Trump has offended a lot of "interest groups" with campaign remarks.  But, then there is Hillary.  It is going to be close.

 

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• 17 Surprising Interview Questions these CEOs Always Ask. (Inc)
• Should We Be Afraid of AI? (Aeon)
• Don't Read This! (It's Only the Most Valuable Psychology Hack You Can Learn.). (Entrepreneur)
• Liberal Brains are Different from Conservative Brains, with Psychiatrist Gail Saltz. (BigThink)
• Jerry Jones Disinterested in Presidential Run, but “Proud” to See Hillary Clinton Earn Democratic Nomination. (Star-Telegram)

 

Trading Links:

• Delinquency Rates Surge in 2016, Poised to Head Higher. (FinancialSense)
• 4 Blockchain Companies that Could Change Everything from Accounting to Money Transfers. (MarketWatch)
• In the U.S. and Abroad, More Young Adults are Living with Their Parents. (PewResearch)
• Top 100 Economics Blogs of 2016. (Ritholtz)
• How Much Did the Clintons Make from Paid Speeches in 2015? (CNW)

Each State's Biggest Export Trading Partner

Despite Canada's considerable geographic challenges, a friend sent me this as a reminder.

This chart shows the country to which each state exports the most.  The states that border Mexico send a lot of goods there, while 35 states have Canada as their biggest export partner.

 

via Business Insider.

 

Back to the chart ... International trade is a big part of America's economy, and a factor in each of the fifty state economies that constitute it.

The Census Bureau publishes annual figures on each state's international trade. In addition to the top 25 goods imported and exported by each state, the Bureau reports the 25 countries each state imports the most from and exports the most to.

In addition, here is a list of the U.S.'s largest trading partners (including a different list showing countries of which U.S. is the largest trading partner).

Finally, here is a link to a map showing U.S. states renamed for countries with similar GDPs.

 

S&P Pit: Futures Trading Then and Now

I recently had the opportunity to visit the S&P 500 Pit after speaking at the Trading Show in Chicago. 

Compare it to the pit only 8 years ago and you'll notice an interesting change ... but it's not necessarily as it seems.

 

 

via YouTube.

Don't let the slow pace and lack of frenzy fool you ... Volume now is higher than ever.  And the change in the pit isn't a harbinger of death for futures trading;  it's the signal of a new era. 

According to the CME Group, public outcry has fallen to 1% of total volume.

As the playing field changes, so does the game.

Onwards!

A Scary Chart That Questions the Future Economic Power of the U.S.

By 2030, more than 70 percent of people will live in cities.  In many respects, these cities matter a lot more than the countries that they’re in.

Mega-city clusters will dominate the world economy.  In many countries, the capital city or financial center often represents up to half or more of the national GDP.  By 2030, we could have as many as 50 such urban hubs anchoring the global system. 

What does this map tell us?

 

Parag Khanna via Washington Post.

 

This map attempts to accurately represent not only where people will be, but also the economic value of what they will do.  It looks at the entire world’s population and plots it by density, and then superimposes the largest urban archipelagos, the mega-cities, with those ovals to show the value of those cities vis-à-vis the national economy. 

It isn't as hard to predict as you might guess.  To predict the number of 18-year-olds in fifteen years, start with the number of 3-year-olds now.

Kind of scary?

There is opportunity in knowledge.

Related articles

Almost All of the World's Biggest Cities Will Be In Asia and Africa by 2030

$60 Trillion Of World Debt In One Visualization

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

Just a saw an interesting Elon Musk quote:  "Boil things down to the most fundamental truths, and reason up from there."

 

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• How to Build a Culture of Originality. (Harvard Business Review)
• 9 Influential Speeches that Changed the World. (BusinessInsider)
• Jet App Allows You to Share Flights with Celebrities. (CNBC)
• Questions, Answers on New Rules for Americans Visiting Cuba. (AP News)
• One of the World's Top Aging Researchers Has a Pill to Keep You Feeling Young. (FastCo)

 

Trading Links:

• Fintech’s Tipping Point is Imminent, New Report Says. (CoinTelegraph)
• BANK of AMERICA: Long Robots, Short Humans. (BusinessInsider)
• The Uberization of Banking. (Wall Street Journal)
• A 40-Person Startup Just Bought a 1,100-Person Company, Because 2016. (Mashable)
• For Stan Druckenmiller this is "The Endgame" - His Full 'Apocalyptic' Presentation. (ZeroHedge)

Borsellino: futures trading then and now

I just got back from chairing and speaking at a Quant/Algo Trading Conference in Chicago.  Very interesting!

While there, I met with Lewis Borsellino, a well-known S&P 500 and Eurodollar futures trader and author.

Here is a picture of him in the Pit, back in the day.

 

via TastyTrade.

In the mid-eighties, Borsellino claims to have been responsible for 10 percent of a day's volume in the S&P 500 pit and to have accumulated more fines for physical incidents than any other floor member at the CME.

We talked about how many of the advantages he had by being a big player in the trading pits are now being realized by algorithmic and high-speed traders.  I smiled when he called himself the "original spoofer."  

Here is a picture of him now.

 

Change is the only constant.

It's funny how despite the pace of  change, so much stays the same.

The playing field may change, but you still have to play the game.

Related articles

The CME will close most of its open outcry trading pits by this summer

Wall Street sounds off as the Chicago trading pits go quiet for the first time in 167 years

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

Somebody has to win the election.  16sucks.com hopes it will be them, by selling "Everybody sucks" 2016 campaign signs to America's feeling about the two presumed main contestants for the presidency in November. 

Presumed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's net "strongly unfavorable" rating is hovering at about 37% these days (around 5% higher than the previous high for candidates getting close to the general election), according to FiveThirtyEight.

Meanwhile, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump makes Clinton look beloved. His "strongly unfavorable" rating is sitting at about 53%, which is off-the-charts awful for a candidate who is supposed to compete for the White House. 

  

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• 4 Hard Questions to Ask about Your Company’s Purpose. (HBR)
• 25 Geniuses Who are Creating the Future of Business. (Wired)
• Can You Get Hacked Mid-Air? The Answer Is YES. (USAToday)
• Aging Runners Find Help for a Question: How Slow Will I Get? (NYT)
• 36 Pictures to See Which Muscle You’re Stretching. (LifeHack)

 

Trading Links:

• How Buyers React When Prices Rise and Fall. (New York Times)
• This is Why People Get Addicted to Gambling. (The Conversation)
• Hedge Fund Outflows Will Reach at Least $25 Billion this Year. (Fortune)
• "A Scramble for Gold Has Begun". (ZeroHedge)
• A Clever Algorithm Generating Millions of Random Ideas is Turning the Tables on Patent Trolls. (Quartz)

Two Steps Forward, One Step Back - Still Leads to Progress

Here is a photo of the Capitalogix team noting a successful test release.

 

 

When you play a big enough game ... the journey is long ... and it can't just about the final result. 

On a day-to-day basis, it is about sucking less, measuring progress, moving forward ... and remembering to celebrate along the way.

Remember, the tip of the iceberg is only part of the story.

  

The Iceberg Illusion by Sylvia Duckworth, (Flickr CC license).

 

The Iceberg Illusion reminds us that when you see a company killing it - most of the time, all we got to see was the success part at the top, not the struggles and failures it took to get there.

Here's to the focus, learning, resilience, and patience that got us here!

Onwards.

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

Behind the Scenes: How the FBI Solved It's iPhone Problem.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Dan Sullivan Defines Unique Ability. (Video)
• Why Creating a To-Do List Is Derailing Your Success. (FastCompany)
• Find Out How Much You’ve Spent on Amazon Since Opening Your Account. (LH)
• This Is Why Women Live Longer Than Men. (Brightside)
• All Politicians Lie. Some Lie More Than Others. Here is a Comparison. (NYT)

 

Trading Links:

• Is the Stock Market Still Rigged? (Time)
• JPMorgan Has New Theory About What Really Caused the Flash Rally. (Bloomberg)
• Wall Street Banks are Using Artificial Intelligence to Monitor Traders. (BizInsider)
• Islam in Europe: Perception and Reality. (Economist)
• Expect More Money Printing. (ValueWalk)