Capitalogix

Committing To A Bigger Future

I'm a big fan of picking a Big Hairy Audacious Goal (sometimes called a "BHAG") and taking actions that move you in that direction. 

I'm also a big fan of Strategic Coach's Bigger Future exercise.  It is a 20-year planning exercise where you plan out your commitments and goals to yourself, your family, your career, and your legacy. 

While doing this, I realized that my ideal next 20 years involves taking Capitalogix to the next level (and beyond). 

As a result, I recently held a two-hour town hall session with everybody in Capitalogix.  You'll find a 5-minute compilation of highlights at the end of this article. 

Before I share with you, I want to take time to bring you up to speed on Capitalogix's history. Some may know the story, but many of you are new.  It's important context for the video and for Capitalogix's future. 

A Brief History of Capitalogix

Times and conditions change so rapidly that we must keep our aim constantly focused on the future. - Walt Disney

In the 90's, I left a corporate securities law practice to start a company that was an early pioneer in automation, intelligent agents, and rule-based processing.(it is almost embarrassing to compare that to AI today).  Nonetheless, we ended up on the Inc. 500 list, won lots of awards and had a great time.  Little did I know how important that would be to what we are doing now.

Life intervened ... and 1999 was a rough year for me.  My dad died of cancer, I got divorced, and I sold my company. That year inspired my TED Talk on the Time Value of A Life Worth Living, and has inspired the past 20 years of my life. 

I threw myself into trading. At first, I was a fundamental trader.  But I quickly threw myself into Elliott Wave theory, technical analysis, quantitative analysis, and everything else I could get my hands on. I spent hours on end marking up charts and creating early algorithmic trading systems - predecessors to how we trade today. 

I also hired my first two employees - Gabriel and Sean. My dining room became their office. I started to view trading as a business, rather than a hobby. The thought forms that would become our framework for understanding markets were starting to gel. 

 

 

By 2015, we had 20+ employees working out of my house, and I realized we'd outgrown my home. Here is a picture from the dining room before the move.

 

 

After a brief time with employees in three different offices (including one of our partner's offices) we found our current office. 

Moving in to our new office represented a positive shift in culture and focus - and another step toward our goals. 

 

Where We Are Today

The power for creating a better future is contained in the present moment: You create a good future by creating a good present. - Eckhart Tolle

We are committed to revolutionizing decision science (making better decisions faster). We're creating the future we've envisioned.

Yet, for all we've accomplished, we're driven every day to be better than we were yesterday. That drive comes from that big hairy audacious goal and that 20-year vision.

It comes from knowing who we want to be tomorrow. 

 

 

Committing To The Future

 

It means that we're going to have to have new people and new ways of doing things because the recipe for getting here isn't the recipe for getting there. As much as I respect and love you for "here." I respect and love you enough to hold you accountable for "there." - Howard Getson

 

It hasn't always been easy - but building Capitalogix has been an intensely rewarding passion.

Over the next 20 years, there are a ton of people I want to impact and a lot of goals I want to accomplish. Capitalogix is the way I intend to do that.

I look forward to you all being a part of it as well. 

Onwards!

Visualizing The AI Revolution

I'm surprised how often I see people who are bearish on Artificial Intelligence. Many are stuck in science fiction's depictions - sentience, personification, etc.. Modern AI is very different from science fiction predictions, but is still exciting. (Here's an infographic debunking 8 common AI myths)

Modern AI does many things and has many applications, but ultimately it's relatively faceless. It works in the background, impacts everything it touches, and silently collects vast lakes of data. AI may not be Star Trek's "Data," but it is transforming our economy at warp speed. 

TechJury has put together an infographic on the history of AI until today. It highlights a number of key inflection points, AI's impact on today's economy, and which countries and companies are leading the pack. 

via TechJury (Click To See Full Infographic)

AI By The Numbers (Taken From TechJury)

• By 2025, the global AI market is expected to be almost $60 billion; in 2016 it was $1.4 billion
• The number of AI startups has grown 14x since 2000
• Investment in AI startups has grown 6x since 2000
• 77% of the devices we use feature one form of AI or another
• 84% of global businesses see AI as a competitive advantage
• Google analysts believe that next year robots will be smart enough to mimic complex human behavior like jokes and flirting

 

To me, it's clear that AI is the major driving force of tomorrow. AI continues to perform increasingly impressive tasks. Last week, I saw an AI that can make realistic video renderings from one picture, and Google's DeepMind beat humans in a multiplayer shooting game, operating on a single metric. 

If you're as excited about the potential for AI as I am, here are some articles I wrote that you may have missed:

• AI in Film: A Retrospective
• Which Industries Are Prime For Disruption?
• Will I Survive The AI Revolution?
• Creating An Artificial Intelligence Methodology
• How To Thrive After The AI Revolution

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - June 9th, 2019

Tuesday was the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square Protests. Here's a video of Chinese college students being asked about the event. It is a pretty interesting look at censorship and fear of government consequences for lack of free speech. 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• China's Big AI Advantage: Humans. (News)
• The Natural Genius of Ants is Helping Us Build Better Algorithms. (Wired)
• 5 Myths about Strategy. (HBR)
• Percentage of Americans Who Never Traveled beyond the State Where They Were Born? A Surprise? (Forbes)
• At Disneyland's New Star Wars' Attraction – Brace Yourself for $200 Lightsabers, $42 Cocktails and 4 A.M. Lines. (MarketWatch)

 

Trading Links:

• Billionaire Mike Bloomberg Tells Harvard Graduates that Money Isn't Important. (TheLadders)
• The Radical Plan to Change How Harvard Teaches Economics. (Vox)
• Apple Patents the Foldable iPhone Display; Here's What It Looks Like. (ValueWalk)
• Quantum Computing Will Change the Digital World beyond Recognition. (Metro)
• Atlanta Fed President Bostic Does Not See a Rate Cut this Year like the Market is Telegraphing. (CNBC)

 

The Rise of the Megacity

Population growth is an interesting measure. Historically, growth has been slow.  But something changed that.  And the implications are stunning.

Scientists estimate that humans have existed for over 130,000 years. It took until 1804 for us to reach 1 Billion. We doubled that population by 1927 (123 years later), and then doubled it again in only 47 years later (which was 1974). 

Early population growth was driven by the agricultural revolution. Since 1804, the industrial revolution, health and safety advances, and technology have radically improved quality of life - spurring comparatively rapid growth. 

via Axios (Click for an Interactive Graph)

World population growth rates peaked in the late 1960s and have declined sharply in the past four decades, but we're still on a positive trend. We're expected to reach 9 billion people by 2050, but a lot of that growth comes from developing countries - they also almost exclusively come from urban areas. 

Urbanization: Megacities

Since 2014, over 50% of the world's population has lived in urban areas - today it's approximately 55%. That number is growing.

Ironically, as we grow more digitally connected, our world is shrinking and our populations are concentrating. 

An interesting consequence of this rapid urbanization and population growth in developing countries has been the increased development of Megacities - defined as cities with populations greater than 10 million. Today, there are 33 megacities - more than triple the number in the 1990s. 

This creates a set of interesting opportunities and challenges. 

For example, how will these cities deal with infrastructure - sanitation, transportation, etc.

 

via Blackrock (Click to view full infographic)

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - June 2nd, 2019

Toronto plays Golden State in game two of the NBA Finals tonight. Tickets were a little pricey!

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• This is Why Einstein Knew that Gravity Must Bend Light. (Forbes)
• The Lucrative Black Market in Human Fat. (The Atlantic)
• Goldman Sachs's Chief Critic Picks New York's Top New Restaurants. (Bloomberg)
• Amazon Working on Wearable Device that Will Track Your Emotions. (News18)
• Harvard Spent 80 Years Studying Happiness, and We Now Know the 1 Key Habit that Makes People Happier. (The Problem: Most People Never Even Try). (Inc)

 

Trading Links:

• Al Gore Keeps Beating the Stock Market. Here's What He's Buying and Selling. (Barrons)
• Big Revenues, Huge Valuations and Major Losses: Charting the Era of the Unicorn IPO. (TechCrunch)
• Musk's SpaceX Raised over $1 Billion in Six Months: Filings. (Reuters)
• Texas Set to Become 11Th State to Ban Red Light Cameras. (Gizmodo)
• Alibaba Billionaire Jack Ma: I Know Nothing about Tech or Marketing – This Is the Secret to My Success. (CNBC)

 

 

10 Largest Economies in 2030

Emerging markets have taken recent hits due to the trade war ... but that doesn't mean their long-term potential isn't monumental. 

According to Standard Chartered, by 2030, 7 of the 10 largest economies will be in emerging markets with India, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, and Egypt seeing exponential growth. Click to see the infographic and here's a video:

 

via Visual Capitalist

China and the US produce 23.2 trillion and 19.4 trillion respectively; unchallenged powerhouses now. That being said, the global balance of power and population is shifting; and many developing countries (like India) are growing quickly.  

 

via Visual Capitalist

It seems likely that with their population growth and maturation as global economies, we'll see a relatively different landscape in 10 years. Will it look like this? Maybe?  But Egypt's projected growth of 583% seems a bit beyond normal expectations ... Time will tell!

Biggest Companies In Every State

Here are the biggest companies by revenue (in 2018) in almost every state. You'll notice some states are missing. Alaska, Montana, New Mexico, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming lack Fortune 1000 headquarters. 

Business Insider via Fortune

Most should be pretty recognizable - but some are relatively under the radar. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 26th, 2019

Theresa May has just announced her resignation as UK Prime Minister. She's faced massive criticism for an inability to come to a resolution on Brexit, and missing two deadlines. A new PM will be appointed in July.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

 

• Our Coming DNA Nightmare, as Outlined by a Dystopian Graphic Novel. (FastCompany)
• Google May Know You Better Than You Know Yourself. (Wall Street Journal)
• Leonardo Da Vinci Designed an Ideal City, Centuries Ahead of Its Time. (TheConversation)
• U.S. Among the Ten Most Stressed Nations Worldwide [Infographic]. (Forbes)
• Princeton Valedictorian Gets Engaged to Her 71-Year-old Former Professor. (FoxNews)

 

Trading Links:

• Economics in the Age of Big Data. (Science)
• These are the 20 Highest-Paid World Leaders. (CNW)
• America's Strong Economic Growth this Year Surprises Economists. (Economist)
• Millionaires Flee Their Homelands as Tensions Rise and Taxes Bite. (Bloomberg)
• This Map Showing the Fastest and Slowest Internet Speeds in the US Could Predict the Path of a Silicon Valley Startup Exodus. (BusinessInsider)

AI Isn't A Substitute For Lack Of The Real Thing

When I first got out of Law School in the 1980s, "professionals" didn't type ... that was your assistant's job.

Then again, most people couldn't have imagined what computers and software are capable of now.

Looking back,  my career has been a series of cycles where I was able to imagine what advanced tech would enable (and how business would have to change to best leverage those new capabilities).

Malcolm Gladwell suggests that it takes 10,000 hours of focus and effort for someone to become an expert at something. 

But the game is changing.

Today, we can do research that took humans 10,000 hours in the time it took you to read this sentence. Moreover, technology doesn't forget what it's learned because a computer's memory is much better than yours or mine. 

Still,  technology isn't a cure-all. Many people miss out on the benefits of A.I. and technology for the same reasons they didn't master the hobbies they picked up as an adolescent. 

I shot a video discussing how to use technology to create a sustainable creative advantage. Check it out. 

 

 

Most people realize this technology is cool - and they want to use AI - but they forget what mastery takes. 

When using AI and high-performance computing, you need to ask the same questions you ask yourself about your life's purpose. 

• What's my goal?
• What do I (or my systems) need to learn to accomplish my goal?
• What are the best ways to achieve that goal (or something better)?

Too many companies are focused on AI as if that is the goal. AI is simply a tool. As I mentioned in the video, you have to define the problem the right way in order to find a solution for it. 

Artificial Intelligence is a game-changer - so you have to approach it as such. 

Know your mission and your strategy, recognize what you're committing to, set it as a compass heading and make deliberate movement in that direction. 

I end the video by saying, "Wisdom comes from making finer distinctions. So, it is an iterative and recursive process... but it is also evolutionary.  And frankly, that is extraordinarily exciting!"

I hope you agree.

Onwards!

Mindset Matters

I have a picture in my conference room that says energy might be the most important thing to measure.

 

via GapingVoid

It means exactly what it sounds like - but also a lot more. 

We use A.I. to trade.  So, measuring performance is important.  But, so are all sorts of production, efficiency, and effectiveness measures. 

While there are hundreds of important metrics we track day-to-day, energy affects everything. 

Energy affects how you feel, what you do, and what you make it mean.  That means it is a great way to measure your values too.

Consequently, even if you don't recognize it, energy has a lot to do with who you hire and fire. It affects where you spend our time. Ultimately, it even affects the long-term vision of our company.

If something brings profit and energy, it is probably worth pursuing. 

In contrast, one of the quickest ways to burn out is by fighting your energy.  Figuring out who and what to say "no" to is an important way to make sure you stay on path and reach your goals.

At a recent Genius Network event, I shared a mindset scorecard I created during one of their exercises.  I hope it helps!

Normally, Genius Network is private, and these recordings are for internal use only; but I asked permission to share my impromptu session with you. 

Check it out. In the first 5 minutes, I will introduce the scorecard. For the next 10 minutes, you'll get an extra look at the resulting group discussion. 

 

I use this tool to diagnose where we are during meetings, while ranking opportunities, and even for HR and partnership decisions.

Think of each comparison as a spectrum. They're not necessarily "one-or-the-other", but they can help identify where you are on the scale of "what to avoid" versus "what you want".

 

• Blaming <-----> Encouraging
• Insistent <-----> Inspirational
• Fearful <-----> Abundant
• Steadfast <-----> Curious
• Clogging <-----> Cleansing
• Resentful <-----> Grateful
• Zero-Sum <-----> Relational
• Small-Minded <-----> Visionary

 

These words mean something to me, but they may need tooling to work in your company. Changing the names, the order of the comparisons, the number of comparisons, etc. can have a profound effect on the usefulness of this scorecard to you. 

I encourage you to think about how you could use this scorecard, and how you can bring attention to those people and actions that best embody the traits that are vital to your business.