Many of our best decisions, timeliest course corrections, or significant innovations occur after a seemingly disastrous occurrence. That's why many psychologists and self-help gurus encourage people to focus on the hidden gift that many of these experiences provide.
It's there if you look for it. That painful event becomes the catalyst for either something new, a better way, or a level-up.
The goal isn't just to survive - it's to thrive. While a robust business can withstand shocks and a resilient business can recover from them, an anti-fragile business improves and grows stronger when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors. The interesting thing about this concept is that it doesn't mean not fragile. It means things that weaken other systems are actually the things that strengthen you.
Of course, that's not the case for everyone or every event ... It takes the right mindset and the right actions to turn a trial into a triumph.
As we see the world changing rapidly, both through AI and through Trump's presidency, I think back to 2008 and how a prior incarnation of algorithms fared against it (spoiler alert: not nearly as well as this time). They say the things that don't kill you make you stronger. Here's my trial into triumph story about that.
Via Howard Getson's YouTube Channel.
Too many people become victims of their circumstances instead of choosing to be the master of their destinies.
Life is harder for people who live a life of least resistance. Doing the hard things and making the most of bad times makes life better and, ultimately, easier.
Tony Robbins calls this the Threshold of Control. If you push through the fear and the struggle ... as you persevere, eventually, what was scary becomes easy. You've increased your threshold, and that's often a permanent improvement.
Here is a list of the seven steps I use to transform almost any situation.
Seven Best Practices for Uncertain Times.
- Accept Reality: We are where we are. Focus on being complete with what happened before this – and think about this as a new beginning with an even bigger future.
- Do Something Positive: Take action and build momentum and confidence. Big wins are great. Yet, in scary times, even small items are worth noting, building upon, and stacking. Let progress build positive momentum for you.
- Take Care of Yourself: Increase your physical activity, meditation, and massage. Take time to eat and sleep well. Many studies show decision-making suffers when you're stressed. Caring for yourself goes a long way to improving many other things.
- Communicate More: The natural tendency is to hide or to recuperate in private. Instead, be open and receptive to help and ideas from friends, partners, or wherever it may come.
- Creative Destruction: The old game and the old ways of thinking are over. Shift your energy to what is working. Commit to the result you want rather than the process.
- Increase Your Options: It often takes a different level of thinking to solve a problem than the level of thinking that got you there in the first place. So, be open to opportunities, new possibilities, and more ways to win.
- Choose a Bigger Future: Instead of resigning yourself to playing small and doing with less, recognize that a clearing creates space for something even better. Choose what you want and call it into existence through your thoughts and actions.
They say everything happens for a reason. The secret is that you get to choose the reason, what it means to you, and what you're going to do about it. Choose well, and someday, you could look back on this time as one of the best things that ever happened to you.
The Psychology of Gamblers
March Madness, Vegas, and Wall Street share a lot in common.
Over Time ... The House Wins
Casinos only offer to play games that they expect to win. In contrast, gambling customers play even though they know the odds are against them.
Why does this happen? The rush of a win, the chance of a big win, and random reinforcement are common factors that incentivize people to play the lotto, go to a casino, or try to trade.
Chemicals like adrenaline and dopamine play a part as well. Even in a sea of losses, your body can't help but crave the chemical reward of even a small win.
The "House" knows this and engineers an experience that takes advantage of it.
In the case of casinos, every detail is meticulously crafted to extract you from your money - from carpet patterns to the labyrinthian layouts, the music, the lights, and even the games themselves.
Here is an infographic that lays it out for you.
Most people aren't gamblers ... the fear of losing big inhibits them. However, when people were instructed to "think like a trader," they showed considerably less risk aversion when gambling. And I bet you have no problem filling out a March Madness bracket, even if you put money on the line.
The illusion of control convinces us we can overcome the statistics.
When you almost get it right - when you guess the first round of March Madness correctly, when you miss the jackpot by one slot on a slot machine, when you just mistime a trade to get a big win - you're more likely to play longer, and place bigger bets ... because you're "so close."
It's human nature to want to feel in control.
This is why you find a lot of superstitious traders & gamblers. If you wear this lucky item of clothing ... if you throw the dice in this particular way ... if you check your holdings at this time every day ... you have control.
There is a big difference between causation and correlation.
It is not hard to imagine that, for most traders, the majority of their activities do little to create a real and lasting edge.
Skill vs. Luck
There are games of skill, and there are games of chance.
In a casino, poker, and blackjack are considered games of skill. In contrast, slot machines are considered a game of chance.
In trading, predicting markets is much different than using math and statistics to measure the performance of a technique.
Much of what we do is to figure out how to eliminate the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes humans bring to trading.
In trading, "Alpha" is the measure of excess return attributed to manager skill, rather than luck or taking on more risk.
We believe in Alpha-by-Avoidance ... Meaning much of what we do is figure out what to ignore or avoid so that more of the games we play are games of skill rather than games of chance.
Are you playing the right game?
Posted at 08:49 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Games, Healthy Lifestyle, Ideas, Just for Fun, Market Commentary, Personal Development, Science, Sports, Trading, Trading Tools, Travel, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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