Humans are notoriously bad at large numbers. It's hard to wrap our minds around something of that scale. We're wired to think locally and linearly, not exponentially (it's one of the reasons I love AI so much). Here are a couple of ways to help you understand a billion dollars.
First, let's look at spending over time. If you were to spend a dollar every second for an entire day, you would spend $86,400 per day. If you have a million dollars, you can do that for approximately twelve days. With a billion dollars, you can do that for over 31 years. Ignoring the difference between net worth and cash, Jeff Bezos could spend $9M per day for over 31 years.
If you make $100k a year, you can earn $1 million in 10 years. At the same rate, it would take you 10,000 years to make $1 billion.
For another example, let's think about spending money. Imagine making $50k a year as the base, and imagine buying a laptop, a car, or a house. Now we're going to shrink the cost of those items, instead of increasing your pay. If you were a millionaire, a laptop might cost the equivalent of $100 dollars, a Porsche, $3,000 dollars, a house, $25,000. Now, let's say you're Mike Bloomberg and you're worth $60B. A laptop is literally worth pennies, a Porsche is less than 60 cents, and your mansion would cost around 500 dollars. You could have everything you ever wanted for a minute fraction of your wealth.
Okay, last one before I show a video ...
Let's try explaining it through time. 50,000 seconds is just under 14 hours. A million seconds was 11 days ago. A billion seconds ago from today? 1988. Pretty crazy.
Here's a video from the 1970s that helps you understand scale through the power of tens, and an exploration of our universe.
Late last year, the FTX exchange collapsed. During the collapse, there was evidence of a Ponzi scheme, overleveraging, and solvency issues. Before it crashed, it was the third-largest cryptocurrency exchange with over a million users. FTX's collapse shook the volatile crypto market, which lost billions at the time, falling below a $1 trillion valuation, and supposedly millions of coins were stolen during the downfall.
This was a massive hit for the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrency. Since then, crypto has been slowly fighting its way forward - and I know many people with interesting opportunities and ventures planned for this space.
Meanwhile, the SEC sued Coinbase, this past week, for potentially operating an unregistered securities platform and brokerage service. The SEC alleged that Coinbase made billions as the middleman between buyers and sellers without giving investors the lawful protections they should as a broker. That lawsuit came only a day after the SEC filed charges against the largest crypto exchange, Binance, for misusing investor funds, operating as an unregistered exchange, and violating many U.S. securities laws.
Here's a quote from Binance's CCO (recorded in the SEC complaint)
“We are operating as a f*king unlicensed securities exchange in the USA bro.”
It is no surprise that Coinbase's stock price plunged almost 20% due to the news.
I don't want to bog you down with the details of the various cases, but ultimately, Binance was supposed to split their business so that their U.S. company would be subject to U.S. regulations and legally allowed to be an exchange in the U.S. But, instead, there was an improper "comingling" of funds. Binance subverted its controls to allow certain high-value customers to continue trading on the non-U.S. platform.
So, this begs the question ... what does this all mean for cryptocurrencies, exchanges, and the stakeholders?
My Thoughts
These recent enforcement actions suggest that the SEC will target firms it sees as bypassing regulation (either by blurring the distinction between on-and-offshore services or by trading unregulated securities).
It's clear that regulators are worried about the security of the American taxpayers' money. Both the FDIC and SEC are cracking down.
Just like with the banking issues before, the issues we're dealing with here shouldn't be particularly surprising if you have been paying attention. We're getting mixed messages on how involved and regulated the government wants these securities to be.
Are more regulations required to ensure trust in the American financial system? Or is this a free market where pain and pleasure point out the evolutionary path?
Finally, there's an even more fundamental question ... are cryptocurrencies truly something new (which requires a unique regulatory approach), or are they simply a new medium of pre-existing financial instruments that the SEC already has rules and regulations for?
Initially, some of the attractive aspects of cryptocurrency were its decentralized nature and its potential to have its own rules and regulations separate from a national governing body.
On the other hand, we've seen what happened in the past when other alternative investments, like Hedge Funds, were unregulated.
Currently, two roads are available to cryptocurrency as an industry - and perhaps it can take both. First, it can become subject to all the regulations of its predecessors and become a mainstream and stable option for the masses. Or, it can remain a "fringe" option that subverts the governing bodies around it, forcing its relatively small group of loyalists to deal with the uncertainty and volatility – but maintain the autonomy it can.
There is nothing wrong with your television. We will control all that you see and hear. We can deluge you with a thousand channels or expand one single image to crystal clarity and beyond. We can shape your vision to anything our imagination can conceive. Enjoy ....
There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image; make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your television set. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to the outer limits.
We believe what we want to believe, so it can be very hard to change a belief, even in the face of contrary evidence.
Since the past election cycle, we've seen a massive uptick in distrust toward news agencies, big companies, the government, and basically anyone with a particularly large reach.
To a certain degree, this is understandable and justified. Here is an example of the power of the media focused on a message. Click to watch.
Propaganda has always been an issue, and almost everyone does it; governments, companies, etc. Luckily, it's easier to see today than in the past, but unluckily it's also more pervasive and insidious than before.
It's to the point where if you watch the news you're misinformed, and if you don't watch the news you're uninformed.
The above segment portrays a rosy picture of Amazon's efforts to protect its workers while delivering essentials to the struggling homebound masses. This comes while Amazon has come under massive fire for removing some of its protections.
Honestly, I use Amazon and, in my opinion, this isn't a massive breach of trust. News stations have a lot of time to fill, they often have sponsored content.
That being said, it's something to be cognizant of - not necessarily offended by.
Personally, I believe I am reasonably aware and somewhat immune from propaganda. That probably isn't as true as I'd like to believe.
It used to be true that winners wrote history (think empires, wars, etc.). Now, the one that delivers the most broadcast narratives shapes the emotional and seemingly logical responses to what we perceive to be happening around us.
The result impacts elections, financial markets, buying choices, and countless other areas of our life.
It's a great reminder that what you're seeing and hearing is carefully manufactured, and hopefully, it encourages you to get outside your bubble.
I think one of the worst consequences of the past few years is the unwillingness of mass swaths of Americans to listen to voices they disagree with. The internet has already created echo chambers, but it's being exacerbated by vitriol. As a result, I think we're seeing the fringe of both parties move further away from the middle.
It's unsurprising that Google and social media top the list, but it is interesting to see OpenAI becoming the 17th most visited site last month - with 1.8 billion visits - despite being very new to the scene in comparison to its competitors.
Easy to forget, but also unsurprising is the prevalence of adult websites on this list. One of my most popular articles ever was titled "How Long Does It Take To Get To 50 Million Users?" in it, the takeaway was that Pornhub did it 19 days - faster than anyone else ... up until ChatGPT. Part of the popularity of that article is because Pornhub has very in-depth statistics about its yearly use.
Many of our best decisions, timeliest course corrections, or most significant innovations occur after a seemingly disastrous occurrence. That's why many psychologists and self-help gurus encourage people to focus on the hidden gift that many of these experiences provide.
It's there if you look for it. That painful event becomes the catalyst for either something new, a better way, or a level-up.
Of course, that's not the case for everyone or every event ... It takes the right mindset and the right actions to turn a trial into a triumph.
As we come out of a massive world transformation, and into a new one with the surge in A.I., I think back to 2008 and how a prior incarnation of algorithms fared against it (spoiler alert: not nearly as well as this time). They say the things that don't kill you make you stronger. Here's my trial into triumph story about that.
Too many people become a victim of their circumstances instead of choosing to be the master of their destinies.
Life's harder for people that live a life of least resistance. Doing the hard things, and making the most of bad times, makes your life not only better ... but, ultimately, easier.
Tony Robbins calls this Threshold of Control. If you push through the fear and the struggle ... as you persevere, eventually, what was scary becomes easy. You've increased your threshold, and that's often a permanent improvement.
Examining several instances from my past, here is a list of the seven steps I use to transform almost any situation.
Seven Best Practices for Uncertain Times.
Accept Reality: We are where we are. Focus on being complete with what happened before this – and think about this as a new beginning with an even bigger future.
Do Something Positive: Take action and build momentum and confidence. Big wins are great. Yet, in scary times, even small items are worth noting, building upon, and stacking. Let progress build positive momentum for you.
Take Care of Yourself: Increase your physical activity, meditation, and massage. Take time to eat and sleep well. Many studies show decision-making suffers when you're stressed. Taking care of yourself goes a long way to making many other things better.
Communicate More: The natural tendency is to hide or to recuperate in private. Instead, be open and receptive to help and ideas from friends, partners, or wherever it may come.
Creative Destruction: The old game and the old ways of thinking are over. Shift your energy to what is working. Commit to the result you want rather than the process.
Increase Your Options: It often takes a different level of thinking to solve a problem than the level of thinking that got you there in the first place. So, be open to new opportunities, new possibilities, and more ways to win.
Choose a Bigger Future: Instead of resigning yourself to playing small and doing with less, recognize that a clearing creates space for something even better. Choose what you want and call it into existence through your thoughts and actions.
They say everything happens for a reason. The secret is that you get to choose the reason, what it means to you, and what you're going to do about it. Choose well, and someday you could look back on this time as one of the best things that ever happened to you.
Surface-level statistics - like whether something goes up or down over time - are helpful but don't explain much. I love looking at the patterns and statistics one step deeper.
This example isn't too deep, but it's helpful nonetheless.
VisualCapitalist compiled a chart covering what moved the S&P 500 so far in 2023.
The top 20 stocks accounted for 7.08% out of the 7.55% gain in 2023, but only 29% of the weight of the S&P.
If we look one step deeper than that, we realize that the majority of those stocks are not only Tech stocks, but they are stocks driving the rapid growth in AI. On top of the obvious ones, like Nvidia and AMD, you also have companies like Alphabet and Microsoft investing billions into OpenAI as they begin to leverage ChatGPT into their own chatbots.
The math gets even crazier, though. According to Rowan Cheung, editor of the RunDown AI newsletter, the S&P 500 would be up only 1.4% without the AI-led rally as of May 17, 2023.
One of the things we look for in understanding the performance of indexes like this is market breadth. If many of the S&P 500 companies are performing well, that's a sign of safety. When the market is positive due to the performance of only a few companies, it means you should understand and pay attention to the distinction between the market, as a whole, and the companies (or industries) driving the change. In this scenario, the AI-companies are masking the actual performance of the S&P. How long that can stay true (with banking uncertainty, debt ceiling issues, and more) remains to be seen.
Capitalogix started in my home. The first employee sat at a tiny desk behind me. Their job was to exit the trades I entered. This was an early attempt to avoid the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes that humans bring to the business of trading.
We started to grow ... and somehow got to 23 people working in my home. It literally overtook my office, dining room, and the entire upstairs. Neighbors noticed (and expressed their displeasure).
Looking back, it seems crazy (and my wife seems Saintly). But somehow, at the time, it felt natural.
Incubating the company in my home, and growing it the way we did, resulted in a closeness (a feeling much like family) that pays dividends, even today.
There is a concept in business expressed by the phrase "measure twice and cut once." It's much easier to do something the right way from the beginning rather than trying to fix it after you mess it up.
It saves time and creates a better end result.
Beginning with the end in mind is powerful. I often spend what looks like "too much" time imagining the bigger future. What will things look like when we are ten times bigger? Who will we serve? What dangers will keep me up at night? What opportunities will we be trying to attract or capture? What strengths will give us confidence? Who will we be collaborating with ... and about what? It helps build a roadmap that makes it easier to understand whether particular activities are aligned with our future (or just something we are doing now).
I prefer to optimize on the longer term rather than the shorter term. That isn't always possible or practical, but that is my preference when it is.
Pace is important - and a focus on "what's the best next step" is an important driver at Capitalogix, but sometimes in order to go fast, you have to go slow. You may miss out on something, but the ultimate payoff is often worth it.
It's a good lesson for personal growth as well. There is no right timeline. No one size fits all. Take your time. Find your path.
I was at an event last week where (unsurprisingly) we focused heavily on AI. Conversations ranged from use cases for generative AI (and the ethics of AI image creators) to the long-term effects of AI and its adoption.
Before I could chime in, the conversation had gone to the various comparisons from past generations. When electricity was harnessed, articles claimed that it would never catch on, it would hurt productivity, and what of the artisans it would potentially put out of business if it were to gain traction.
When the radio or TV was released, the older generation was sure it would lead to the death of productivity, have horrible ramifications, and ultimately lead to the next generation's failure.
People resist change. We're wired to avoid harm more than to seek pleasure. The reason is that, evolutionarily, you have to survive to have fun.
On the other hand, my grandmother used to say: "It's easy to get used to nice things."
Here's a transcript of some of my response to the discussion:
With AI, getting from "Zero-to-One" was a surprisingly long and difficult process. Meaning, getting AI tools and capabilities to the point where normal people felt called to use it because they believed it would be useful or necessary was a long and winding road. But now that everybody thinks it's useful, AI use will no longer be "special". Instead, it will become part of the playing field. And because of that, deciding to use AI is no longer a strategy. It's now table stakes.
But that creates a potential problem and distraction. Why? Because, for most of us, our unique ability is not based on our ability to use ChatGPT or some other AI tool of the day. As more people focus on what a particular tool can do, they risk losing sight of what really matters for their real business.
Right now, ChatGPT is hot! But, if you go back to the beginning of the Internet, MySpace or Netscape (or some other tools that were first and big) aren't necessarily the things that caught on and became standards.
I'm not saying that OpenAI and ChatGPT aren't important. But what I believe is more important is that we passed a turning point where, all of a sudden, tons of people started to use something new. That means there will be an increase of focus, resources, and activity concentrated on getting to next in that space.
You don't have to predict the technology; it is often easier and better to predict human nature instead. We're going to find opportunities and challenges we wouldn't because of the concentration of energy, focus, and effort. Consequently, AI, business, and life will evolve.
For most of us, what that means is that over the next five years, our success will not be tied to how well we use a tool that exists today, but rather on how we develop our capabilities to leverage tools like that to grow our business.
But your success will not be determined by how well you learn to use ChatGPT. It will be determined by how well you envision your future and recognize opportunities to use tools to start making progress toward the things you really want and to become more and more of who you really are. Right?
So, think about your long-term bigger future? Pick a time 5, 10, or even 20 years from now. What does your desired bigger future look like? Can you create a vivid vision where you describe in detail what you'd like to happen in your personal, professional, and business life? Once you've done that, then try to imagine what a likely midpoint might look like? And then, using that as a directional compass, try to imagine what you can do in this coming year that aligns your actions with the path you've chosen?
Ultimately, as soon as you start finding ways to use emerging technologies in a way that excites you, the fear and gloom fade.
The best way to break through a wall isn't with a wide net, but rather with a sharp blow. You should be decisive and focused.
I remember being an entrepreneur in the late 90s (during the DotCom Bubble). And I remember watching people start to emulate Steve Jobs ... wearing black turtlenecks and talking about which internet company would be the "next big thing" at social gatherings. Looking back, an early sign that a crash was coming was that seemingly everybody had an opinion on what was going to be hot, and too many of them were overly confident.
The point is that almost nobody talks about the Internet that way anymore ... in part because the Internet is now part of the fabric of society. At this point, it would be weird if somebody didn't use the Internet. And you don't really even have to think about how to use the Internet anymore because there's a WHO to do almost all those HOWs.
The same is going to be true for AI. Like with any technology, it will suffer from all the same hype-cycle blues ... inflated expectations and then disillusionment. But, when we come out the other side, AI will be better for it ... just like the Internet, the silver screen, or even radio stations.
Earlier, I mentioned how long it took to get from "Zero-to-One" with AI. But we're still at like three" or a "five" on a 100-point scale. Meaning, you are at the beginning of one of the biggest and most asymptotic curves that you can imagine. And you're not late … you're early! Even the fact that you're thinking about stuff like this now means that you are massively ahead.
The trick isn't to figure out how to use AI or some AI tool. The trick is to keep the main thing the main thing.
Investing resources into your company is one thing. Realize that there are 1000s of these tools out there, and many more coming. You don't have to build something yourself. It is often faster and better to acquire a tool than it is to spend money on developing and building it.
Think of the Medici family. They invested in people, which in turn triggered the Renaissance. A key to moving forward in the Age of AI will be to invest in the right people who seek to create the kind of world you want to see. Think of this as a strategic investment into creators and entrepreneurs with a vision who are on a path that aligns with yours.
As you get better and better at doing that, you'll see increasing opportunities to use tools to engage people to collaborate with and create joint ventures. Ultimately, you will collaborate with technology where it's your thought partner and then your business partner. We are entering exciting times where AI, automation, and innovation will make extraordinary things possible for people looking for opportunities to do extraordinary things.
Pornhub via 
Understanding A Billion Dollars: A Sense Of Scale
Humans are notoriously bad at large numbers. It's hard to wrap our minds around something of that scale. We're wired to think locally and linearly, not exponentially (it's one of the reasons I love AI so much). Here are a couple of ways to help you understand a billion dollars.
First, let's look at spending over time. If you were to spend a dollar every second for an entire day, you would spend $86,400 per day. If you have a million dollars, you can do that for approximately twelve days. With a billion dollars, you can do that for over 31 years. Ignoring the difference between net worth and cash, Jeff Bezos could spend $9M per day for over 31 years.
If you make $100k a year, you can earn $1 million in 10 years. At the same rate, it would take you 10,000 years to make $1 billion.
For another example, let's think about spending money. Imagine making $50k a year as the base, and imagine buying a laptop, a car, or a house. Now we're going to shrink the cost of those items, instead of increasing your pay. If you were a millionaire, a laptop might cost the equivalent of $100 dollars, a Porsche, $3,000 dollars, a house, $25,000. Now, let's say you're Mike Bloomberg and you're worth $60B. A laptop is literally worth pennies, a Porsche is less than 60 cents, and your mansion would cost around 500 dollars. You could have everything you ever wanted for a minute fraction of your wealth.
Okay, last one before I show a video ...
Let's try explaining it through time. 50,000 seconds is just under 14 hours. A million seconds was 11 days ago. A billion seconds ago from today? 1988. Pretty crazy.
Here's a video from the 1970s that helps you understand scale through the power of tens, and an exploration of our universe.
Eames Office via BetterExplained
Hopefully, that was helpful!
Now that you have this context, Forbes keeps a real-time list of Billionaire's valuations based on the trading data from the previous day.
As I type this, Elon beats out Bernard Arnault (and family) by about 9 billion, coming in at a whopping $226.4B.
Posted at 06:40 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Ideas, Market Commentary, Science, Trading Tools | Permalink | Comments (0)
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