Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

Everything in this 1991 RadioShack ad now exists in a single smartphone ... Tough Business!

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Steve Blank on the Next 50 Years of Business Innovation. (Inc.)
• The First Cellphone Went on Sale 30 Years Ago for $4,000. (Mashable)
• 11 Product Names That Mean Unfortunate Things in Other Languages. (MentalFloss)
• What Happens to Our Brains When We Have Stage Fright? (Buffer)
• How Long Can You Live Without Food or Water? Real-life Barbie, Valeria Lukyanova, has decided she's going to try it. (Examiner)

 

Trading Links:

• Peculiar Traits of Rich People. (Fool)
• Family Offices Chasing Wealthy’s $46 Trillion in Assets. (Bloomberg)
• You Can’t Avoid Asset Allocation … Even If You Try. (CapitalSpectator)
• Forget Passive vs. Active -- Here's How To Evaluate Any Investment Strategy. (Millennial)
• The Average Stock Is More Expensive Now Than It Was At The Peak Of The Dot-Com Bubble In 2000. (BusinessInsider)

Here Are Some Links Worth Reading This Weekend

Does writing something with a #Hashtag constitute "doing something"?

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The One Sign Something Is About To Go Wrong--And What You Can Do Before It Does. (Forbes)
• Practice Not As Important As Thought For Success, Study Says. (PopSci)
• Evernote CEO: Apps Will Become Obsolete. (Fortune Tech)
• Virtual Girlfriends Gaining Popularity in Japan. (BusinessInsider)
• 5 TED Talks That May Change Your View on Life. (Entrepreneur)

 

Trading Links:

• 91% of Democrats See Hillary As Likely 2016 Nominee. (Rasmussen)
• Here's Where The World's Richest Families Put Their Fortunes. (BusinessInsider)
• What Makes a Great Trader? An Interview with Jack Schwager. (CFA)
• Software Is Eating Investment Management. (AbnormalReturns)
• The Big Four Economic Indicators: What They're Telling Us About the Economy. (Advisor)

Here Are Some Links to Start Your Weekend

In my opinion, facts are not beliefs or opinions.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• 10 Famous Geniuses With Truly Weird Secret Habits. (Listverse)
• The Reflex of Character. (Michael Hyatt)
• 10 Jobs That No Longer Exist. (BoredPanda)
• 13 Things You Didn’t Know You Could Do On Spotify. (JeoBox)
• 5 Social Media Metrics that your Business Should Track. (TheNextWeb)

 

Trading Links:

• Hedge Funds Have Worst Start Since 2008. (BusinessInsider)
• Will Last Year's Winners Be This Year's Losers? (BlackRock)
• On A 'Rigged' Wall Street, Milliseconds Make All The Difference. (NPR)
• CME Trading Outage Showed That Man Can Still Match The Machine. (Reuters)
• Biggest Credit Bubble in History Flashes Warning – ‘Seek Cover’. (NakedCapitalism)

What Shoulder Surgery Reminded Me About Technology

History is littered with tales of once-rare resources made plentiful by innovation. The reason is pretty straightforward ... scarcity is often contextual.

Imagine a giant orange tree packed with fruit. If you pluck all the oranges from the lower branches, you are effectively out of accessible fruit.

From that limited perspective, oranges are now scarce. But once someone invents a piece of technology called a ladder, the problem is solved.

 

Shoulder Surgery Isn't What It Used to Be.

 

 

I had shoulder surgery on Wednesday to remove some calcium deposits and bone spurs, and to clean out or fix some soft tissue damage.

 

Needless to say, I wasn't looking forward to it.  And not just to the needles and knives, I was dreading the rehab.

 

Turns out, shoulder surgery isn't what it used to be.  

 

Here is a picture from inside my shoulder (unlike years ago, they didn't have to rip me open to to gain access for the picture or the repair).

 

 

Less damage, less time, less drugs, less recovery.

Bottom-Line: I went in early, and was out before lunch.  Moreover, I was able to work and go to a reception the day after the surgery ... and go to the gym this weekend. 

Whether it is minimally invasive surgical instruments, or linking big data and elastic computing ... Technology is a resource-liberating mechanism. 

Whether it is minimally invasive surgical instruments, or linking big data and elastic computing ... Technology is a resource-liberating mechanism. It can make the 'once scarce' the 'now abundant' (or 'readily accessible') ... and a lot less painful.

Pretty Cool!

Don't Get So Comfortable Having Fun That You Forget About Risk Control

I spent part of the week in Miami.  While there, I had a great time talking about deals, opportunities, and how so many hedge fund pros are setting-up shop there.

 

 

Opportunity can be distracting.

Let's play a guessing game.  Who has two thumbs and forgot to wear sunscreen?

 

 

Meanwhile, the Markets have held up well.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading near its highs.

 

 

However, the Russell 2000 Index is showing that traders are taking a risk-off approach to the smaller cap issues.

 

 

Investors have clearly had a preference for larger-cap stocks over smaller-cap ones for the past two months.

This type of Small-Cap negative divergence has been market-negative historically.  

Put that with the "Sell in May and Go Away" theory ... and what you have is another caution light (and a potential early indicator to watch for when the small caps start to out-perform the big caps again).

Here Are Some Links to Start Your Weekend

Do you believe that our Democracy was bought and sold a long time ago?

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Why You Should Hustle Every Day. (TheNextweb)
• Discovering Two Screens Aren’t Better Than One. (NYTimes)
• You Could Read An Entire Harry Potter Book In Under 90 Minutes With This App. (HuffPost)
• 35 Expensive Things for Your Dream House. (Distractify)
• Military's 'Iron Man' Suit May Be Ready to Test This Summer. (LiveScience)

 

Trading Links:

• Remember Lotus Notes? It's Still a Billion-Dollar IBM Business. (WSJ)
• What Will Robots Do to Property Values? (Freakonomics)
• Can Emerging Market Bonds Help Us Predict the Next Bear Market? (FinancialSense)
• How Do You Rein In High Speed Trading? (Points and Figures)
• Welcome to the Odd World of Alternative Currencies. Believe it or not, they're coming. (Futures)

Should You Sell in May and Go Away? Seasonality Suggests That's Not Such a Bad Idea

Is it safe to get back in the Market?

 

According to popular trading rules, May 1st marks the beginning of a 6-month period of unfavorable seasonality. This is often referred to as "Sell-In-May-and-Go-Away".

 

Research published by Yale Hirsch in the Trader's Almanac shows that the market year is often broken into two six-month seasonality periods.

 

• From May 1 through October 31 seasonality is unfavorable, and the market most often finishes lower than it was at the beginning of the period.
• The period from November 1 through April 30 is seasonally favorable, and the market most often finishes the period higher.

 

Here is a recent chart showing the returns, for the past 20 years, of this Halloween through April bullish seasonality idea.

 

 

 

Superficially, it seems to work.

 

While the statistical average results for these two periods are quite compelling, trying to ride the market in real-time in hopes of capturing these results is not always as easy as it sounds.

 

Assume that bull and bear market pressures tend to override seasonal tendencies. 

 

In addition, it's also pretty safe to assume that there are no guarantees in trading.  That means that every year is different and presents its own challenges.

 

As we approach May, traders get wary.  That doesn't mean they sell.  Instead, they acknowledge that, historically,  a volatile, sideways-moving market is likely ... and they prepare accordingly.

 

Nonetheless, price is your primary indicator and it makes sense to follow the primary trend.

 

Related articles

Favorable 6 Month Seasonality Period Begins

Should You Sell in May and Go Away?

Jeffrey Hirsch Reveals Stock Trader's Almanac's View

Here Are Some Links to Start Your Week

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Scientists Debunk the Myth that 10,000 Hours of Practice Makes You an Expert. (Neatorama)
• This Coach Improved Every Tiny Thing by 1 Percent and Here’s What Happened. (JamesClear)
• Do Abstract Ideas Deserve Patents? (NYTimes)
• Why Dogs Spin Before They Poop? [video]. Science (Lifehack)
• Belle Curve: Statistics show the average woman has average looks; the average man doesn’t. (WSJ)

 

Trading Links:

• Bitcoin Itself May Live or Die, But Cryptocurrencies Will Live On. (MIT Tech Review)
• Singapore Aims to Become Southeast Asia's Silicon Valley. (Wall Street Journal)
• Meanwhile, China Quietly Takes Over Zimbabwe. (ZeroHedge)
• George Soros and the Human Uncertainty Principle. (ValueWalk)
• How Rich Are WhatsApp Employees Now? 'Early' WhatsApp Employees Made $160 Million Each (BusinessInsider)

What Level of Market Correction Is Normal Historically? [Chart]

There's always some pain to endure.

This chart shows S&P 500 intra-year declines compared with calendar year returns. The bars represent year-end returns since 1980, while the purple dots mark each year's market low.

Buy and Hold investors must stomach significant drawdowns to get their returns — even in 'good' years.

 

via JP Morgan Funds.

 

Basically, you have to understand that 10-15% pull-backs are normal (perhaps even healthy) for the market.

According to Business Insider, here are market correction averages and their historic frequency. Since 1900, we've seen:

• 5% market corrections: 3x per year.
• 10% market corrections: Once per year.
• 20% market corrections: Once every 3.5 years..

Interesting.

Here Are Some Links to Start Your Week

Trading pros may not think things are different.  However, the public is reacting to suggestions that Wall Streets may be rigged against them.

 

In this cartoon, Darkow draws the Carnival Midway Game of Wall Street, "Spill the Milk" ... which disguises the super-fast high-frequency stock trading center for insiders only.

The Carny beckons to the 'Little Guy': "Step right up, friend... It's a game of skill. Trust Me!".

This kind of public sentiment often triggers regulatory scrutiny ... which, in turn, triggers new games of 'skill'.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The Science of Making Your Story Memorable - Scott Adams. (Dilbert)
• 45 People Share the Best Piece Of Advice They’ve Ever Heard. (Thought Catalog)
• The Best April Fools’ Pranks of 2014. (TechCrunch)
• Meet The Seven People Who Hold The Keys To Worldwide Internet Security. (The Guardian)
• Chicago Police Department Believes It Can See The Future, Starts Warning Citizens About Crimes They Might Commit. (TechDirt)

 

Trading Links:

• Will Last Year's Winners Be This Year's Losers? (BlackRock)
• Goldman Sachs Chief: The Responsible Way to Rein in Super-Fast Trading. (WSJ)
• Themis Trading Response To Goldman Sachs Market Structure Op-ed. (ThemisTrading)
• Technical Analysis Practice: Contrast between Individuals and Professionals. (DragonflyCap)
• Scott Adams Blog: Robot Geniuses are Coming. (Dilbert)