To some, new technology is a good thing. To others, less is more.
Most people simply “tolerate” technology transitions, some people drive them, and others crave them and use them as a catalyst for growth or strategic advantage.
The description begins with resistance and progresses towards compulsion. Reversing this sequence allows us to illustrate the innovation adoption process.
Here is a visualization of the innovation adoption model and market share.
In the image above, the blue line represents consumer adoption (taken from Geoffrey Moore’s “Crossing the Chasm,” while the yellow line represents market share.
As you can see, only 2.5% of the population drive innovation (or adopt it early enough to help drive the Alpha & Beta versions of emerging technologies). 13.5% make up the Early adopters, who help get it ready for the mainstream. Then, the early and late majorities are the groups that ultimately consume (or use) the mature product. Meanwhile, Laggards are often forced kicking and screaming into “new” technologies as the early adopters are well on their way to subsequent iterations.
Here is a link to Perplexity’s description of Crossing the Chasm’s innovation-adoption model and other key concepts from the book.
Even if you are not an innovator, here are a few Innovator Mindsets that I find useful.
- You Believe There’s A Better Way
- Wherever you are, you know that there is a best next step, and you are eager to find it and take it.
- You recognize that the opportunity for more (or better) often lies just beyond the constraints or problems of the current way.
- The bigger future fuels your efforts. When initial excitement fades, understanding what the bigger future can bring helps you power through.
- You Are Comfortable Being Uncomfortable
- You understand that Pioneers sometimes take arrows in the back.
- When creating a new reality, you expect some resistance as a result of the law of averages. Escaping the status quo takes a lot of momentum, but it’s worth it.
- You recognize when victory is near. In a quirk of human nature, too many people quit just before they would have won. Don’t make that mistake.
- You Know Where You’re Going, Even If You Are Not Sure How You’re Going To Get There
- Your goal should be your North Star. A clear direction is essential to ensure that activity leads to progress.
- Measure progress and momentum rather than the distance from your goal.
- It is easier to course-correct while in motion.
- If you’re too committed to a path that isn’t leading in the right direction, you might find what Blockbuster, RadioShack, and Kodak found.
- You Are Married To Questions (Not Necessarily Answers)
- Everything works until it doesn’t; and nothing works forever.
- It’s easy to find an answer (and think it’s correct), but there’s always a best next step or a better way.
- Figure out what you want and how to get it. This is much more empowering than focusing on what you don’t want ... or why you can’t get it.
- Ask questions that focus on opportunities or possibilities rather than challenges ... or what you want to avoid.
- Energy flows where focus goes.
- Commit to finding a way!
I plan on sharing more Innovator Mindsets. Let me know what you think.
The Most Hyped Technologies of the 00s
The Gartner Group’s Hype Cycle research provides the raw material for some of my favorite posts every year.
It is a graphical and conceptual presentation used to represent the maturity, adoption, and social application of popular technologies.
Here is a link to a Gartner research note on understanding Hype Cycles.
I’ve found that they are an excellent source of well-researched tech and business analysis. As another example, here is a video of their Top Ten Tech Trends for 2024.
via YouTube
Humans are famously bad at predicting the future of technologies. We tend to overestimate technology’s abilities in the near term and massively underestimate what it can do in the long term.
The shape of that curve has come to be known as the Gartner Hype Cycle, and the five stages of that curve are important for any entrepreneur or investor to understand.
In general, as technology advances, it is human nature to get excited about the possibilities and disappointed when those expectations aren’t met.
At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where we are in the product’s timeline and how long it will likely take the technology to hit maturity. It attempts to tell us which technologies will survive the hype and have the potential to become a part of our daily lives.
Gartner’s Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies. It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct and contextually understandable snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit in their hype cycle.
Here are the five regions of Gartner’s Hype Cycle framework:
Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like “How will these technologies impact my business?” and “Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?”
If you are curious, here is Perplexity’s explanation of Gartner’s Hype Cycle and related research.
Another methodology uses frequency analysis to identify the “most hyped” concepts and technologies.
VisualCapitalist recently put together an infographic highlighting the most hyped technologies of each year. They call it the “Peak of Inflated Expectations”.
(Click To See Full Infographic) via VisualCapitalist
Here’s a Summary of the most hyped technologies, by year, since 2000.
*Missing from the infographic, but updated by Gartner
As we take our smartphones for granted, it’s hard to imagine Bluetooth, wireless web, or e-book readers as emerging technologies at this point - but at one point in time, the lightbulb was an emerging technology.
It’s also interesting to look at which technologies peaked in a hype cycle ... and which now popular technologies no longer appear on this list. For example, despite Virtual Reality being around since the 80s, I still expected to see it on this list.
Cryptocurrencies, “smart homes”, and several older examples are in a recession - but that doesn’t mean they won’t have resurgences.
As a reminder, the hype cycle and the innovation adoption cycle are often on very different time scales. It’s very possible that technologies from the early 2000s may still have their heyday.
What are you surprised wasn’t on the list? And, what do you think is about to get added?
We live in interesting and exciting times!
Posted at 09:28 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Gadgets, Ideas, Just for Fun, Market Commentary, Science, Trading, Trading Tools, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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