Capitalogix

Is a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity Drying-Up?

People are afraid abandoned 'zombie ships' are an early sign of global economic collapse.

 

 Image Credit: Sometimes Interesting. 

 

If you are looking for insight into global supply and demand trends, the Baltic Dry Index is one of the purest leading indicators of economic activity. It offers a real-time glimpse at global raw material and infrastructure demand, as well as the supply of ships available to move this type of cargo.

Unfortunately, it is sinking faster than a ship.

 

 via StockCharts.com

The low is troubling because this Index is often interpreted as a reliable indicator of demand.

The Index moved higher from 2003 to 2008. Since then, we have seen a series of lower highs and lower lows (in other words, it has been trending downwards since then).

 

The low is troubling because this Index is often interpreted as a reliable indicator of demand.

The Index moved higher from 2003 to 2008. Since then, we have seen a series of lower highs and lower lows (in other words, it has been trending downwards since then).

 

Which U.S. Markets Did Best In 2015?

There is always something working in the Markets.  It still surprises me how often it changes.

A look at the recent winners and losers (based on year-end performance) shows the volatility and varied nature of this list.

Who would have guessed the big winners this year would be the French and German markets, along with the U.S. Dollar. 

The chart below shows the top-and-bottom performing markets for the year.  The data is color coded based on sector. The first column shows 2015 performance, followed by six columns of the most recent prior yearly market performances.

Click the image to jump to the full chart.

 

Table Key:

 

Note: The S&P 500 Index is shown in black to highlight its performance vs other markets that offer an equity portfolio full diversification.

 

Click this link to view weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly views of this data.

 

So, how did the U.S market compare to other markets around the world? Here is an interactive chart showing how the S&P 500 out-performed this past year.

A look at the recent winners and losers (based on year-end performance) shows the volatility and varied nature of this list.

Who would have guessed the big winners this year would be the French and German markets, along with the U.S. Dollar. 

The chart below shows the top-and-bottom performing markets for the year.  The data is color coded based on sector. The first column shows 2015 performance, followed by six columns of the most recent prior yearly market performances.

Click the image to jump to the full chart.

 

Table Key:

 

Note: The S&P 500 Index is shown in black to highlight its performance vs other markets that offer an equity portfolio full diversification.

 

Click this link to view weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly views of this data.

 

So, how did the U.S market compare to other markets around the world? Here is an interactive chart showing how the S&P 500 out-performed this past year.

Your Portfolio Guide to Rising Interest Rates. [Infographic]

Here is an infographic on market environments during rising interest rates.

 

via RCM's Alternative Blog  - “Your Portfolio Guide to Rising Interest Rates.”

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

Google is good for a lot of things.  Watching the auto-complete choices is often fun.  According to this, PDF might be the fourth most popular religion.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• How Machines Learn (And You Win). (HBR)
• How an F Student Became America’s Most Prolific Inventor. (Bloomberg)
• Forget Humans vs. Machines: It’s a Humans + Machines Future. (Singularity)
• The 5 Biggest Rip-Offs Consumers Face Today.  (Fortune)
• Why It Was Easier to Be Skinny in the 1980s. (The Atlantic)

 

Trading Links:

• Goldman Sachs Bought a $21 Million Stake in HFT Network Company. (Bloomberg)
• U.S. System Designed to Prevent Financial Crisis ‘Likely to Fail,’ Say Experts. (MarketWatch)
• Wall Street is Under Attack from Hackers. (Business Insider)
• Short Interest: Dispelling Another Market Myth. (See It Market)
• Stop Listening to These Clowns: Economists’ Bad Ideas Have Been Damaging Our Economy for Years. (Salon)

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

Just like Ben Carson theorized ...

 

via Bizarro.com.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• How to Scale Things That Don't Scale. (Buffer)
• Fifty years of Moore’s Law. (Timeline)
• Singularity or Civil War? The Future of Artificial Intelligence. (Breitbart)
• How to Never Get Angry: 3 New Secrets From Neuroscience. (Time)
• The Dark Side of Empathy. How caring for one person can foster baseless aggression towards another (The Atlantic)

 

Trading Links:

• The 40 Most Exciting Innovations of the Year - Tech Insider. (TechInsider)
• Skype Co-Founders Prep Self-Driving Robot Package Delivery. (USAToday)
• Google Says It Could Make Drone Deliveries Happen by 2017. (MarketWatch)
• The Psychology of Risk and Reward. (Farnam Street)
• The Stock Market is a 'Dangerous Casino' That's Disconnected from the Real Economy. (Business Insider)

Star Wars: The Fan’s Guide to Investing

We’re officially two weeks away from the premiere of “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”.

In keeping with the spirit, here is an infographic for Star War fans to navigate the galaxy of investments.  Click it to see a bigger version.

 

An infographic by the team at RCM Alternatives.

May the Force be with you.

 

A Minority of Stocks Are Responsible for the Majority of the Market’s Gains

Here is an interesting chart that shows the expectancy of returns for individual stocks.  Given the historically upward trend of Indices, the data isn't as favorable as I assumed.

 

via ValueWalk.

Here are some key take-aways:

• The mean compounded annual return for all issues was negative.  
• About two-thirds of all stocks had a compounded annual return of less than 10%.
• Moreover, 39% of all stocks had a negative lifetime total return. 

It points to the importance of risk control, sensible diversification, and the ability to ride your winners.  Wait, that is the foundation of successful investing ... isn't it?

Note:  The data for the chart covers all common stocks that traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ since 1983, including delisted stocks, with a few filters.

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

Hope you had a Happy Thanksgiving weekend.  Times may change, but human nature doesn't.  There is a lot to be thankful for anyway!

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• CEOs On Their 'Best Mistakes'. (Business Insider)
• The Best Leaders Are Constant Learners. (HBR)
• How AI is Transforming Business [Infographic]. (Deloitte)
• How Salad Can Make Us Fat. (NYTimes)
• Research: Life Is Different For People Who Think In Metaphors. (Psych)

 

Trading Links:

• Jack Bogle: Greatly Diminished Stock Returns Ahead. (CBS)
• U.S. Dethroned as World's Billionaire Capital. (CNBC)
• IMF Seen Approving Yuan As "Reserve Currency". (ZeroHedge)
• The Man Accused of Spoofing Some of the World's Biggest Futures Exchanges. (Bloomberg)
• These Numbers Explain Why Amazon Wants to Give So Much Free Stuff to Prime Members. (BI)

Will the Rally Continue? The S&P 500 Index Is Approaching All-Time Highs

The S&P 500 Index is coming into resistance (which is looming large) near all-time highs.

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via StockCharts.com.

On the other hand, the Index is nicely above support, and back above its 200-day moving average.

 

Meanwhile, a growing number of issues are back above their 200-day moving averages. Click here to see a live chart of that.

This is a seasonally good time of year for a breakout move like that to happen.

Worth watching.

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

Don't ask how I know, but, never laugh at your wife's choices.  Remember, you are one of them.

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• 6 Ways Work Will Change In 2016. (FastCompany)
• What Peter Drucker Had to Say About Automation. (HBR)
• Japan is Building a “Robot Taxi” Service, With Thousands Planned for the 2020 Olympics. (QZ)
• Is Classical Music Irrelevant? Can It Survive The Death Of Its Listeners? (TM)
• Pretty Scary - How Close Did We Come to a US-Soviet War During the Cold War? (BI)

 

Trading Links:

• Hedge-Fund Priest: Thou Shalt Make Money. (Wall Street Journal)
• When Botox Meets Viagra: Allergen & Pfizer in Merger Talks. (LATimes)
• Even If Only for a Moment, Someone Leapfrogged Gates as World's Richest. (ValueWalk)
• Money Managers Go on Offense Against Speed Traders. (Bloomberg)
• The Trust Machine: The Technology Behind Bitcoin Could Transform How the Economy Works. (Economist)