Capitalogix

Super Bowl 2020

A friend has two tickets for the 2020 SUPER BOWL — both box seats. He paid $2,500 for each ticket, but didn't realize last year when he bought them that it was going to be on the same day as his wedding. If you are interested, he is looking for someone to take his place — it’s at St. Dominic's Church in San Francisco at 3pm. Her name is Melissa . She's 5'7 about 140 lbs. She's a good cook, too. She'll be the one in the white dress.

 

As for the Super Bowl, it seems like this will be a good matchup. The KC Chiefs are in it for the first time in 50 years (and have an amazing offense), while the 49ers are coming off a series of tough seasons (but have an amazing defense). It will also be a Super Bowl without Bill Belichick's scowl gracing our screens. 

It's not just the fans that are excited about the matchup, it's also the bookies. Two years ago, gamblers set a record by placing $158.6 million in Super Bowl bets. Expect more of the same with gambling now legalized in an additional 13 states beyond Nevada. 

 

If you're still looking for a bet – there's another wishful thinking approach you could take to find one ... it is called the "Super Bowl Indicator."

 

 

The theory is that a Super Bowl win for a team from the AFC foretells a decline in the stock market and a win for the NFC means the stock market will rise in the coming year. So, if you're hoping for a strong S&P you'd be rooting for 49ers. 

There's one big caveat ... it counts the Pittsburgh Steelers as NFC because that's where they got their start (or as a data scientist would caution ... they did that to fit the data better). 

With that "adjustment," at one point the SBI was "right" 33 years out of 41 - an 80% success rate. Sounds good, right?

Come on ... you know better. It's been wrong four of the last four years ... another sign of spurious correlation if you weren't sure. 

Here are some other "fun" stock market fallacies:

• January Indicator
• Aspirin Count Theory
• Hemline Indicator
• Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Indicator
• Men's Underwear Index

 

Back to Reality

Rationally, we understand that football and the stock market have little in common, and we probably intuitively understand that correlation ≠ causation. Yet, we crave order and look for signs that make markets seem a little bit more predictable.

The problem with randomness is that it can appear meaningful. 

Wall Street is, unfortunately, inundated with theories that attempt to predict the performance of the stock market and the economy. The only difference between this and other theories is that we openly recognize the ridiculousness of this indicator. More people than you would hope, or guess,  attempt to forecast the market based on gut, ancient wisdom, and prayers.

While hope and prayer are good things ... they aren’t good trading strategies.

As goofy as it sounds, some of these "far-fetched" theories perform better than professional money managers with immense capital, research teams, and decades of experience...

I have a thought experiment I sometimes ask people. 

What percentage of active managers beat the S&P 500 any given year?

... Now, what percentage beat the S&P 500 over 15 years?

Recently, the answer is about 5% (and that's in a predominantly bull market).  For the record, that's significantly worse than chance. Perhaps that means something they're doing is hurting, not helping. 

 

 via Gaping Void

There's simply too much information out there for us to digest, process, rank, and use appropriately.

Every second you spend looking at a market is a second wasted.

There are people beating the markets — not by using the Super Bowl Indicator ... they're doing it with more algorithms and better technology. 

There will never be less data or slower markets. A good reminder that if you don't know what your edge is ... you don't have one!

Onwards.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 19th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Artificial Intelligence: How to Measure the I' in AI. (TheNextWeb)
• Samsung Sheds Light on Its 'Artificial Human' Project. (EnGadget)
• Secrets from a Former FBI Negotiator on How to Get What You Want. (TheLadders)
• Here's the Advice Mark Cuban Would Give His 20-Year-old Self. (CNBC)
• Want to Grow 10X? Here are 17 Books about Business and Life You Should Read in 2020. (TheLadders)

 

Trading Links:

• The Decade of the "Young Old" Begins. (WorldIn)
• 2019 A Year to Forget for Hedge Funds. (Benzinga)
• Fortnite Made $1.8 Billion in 2019. (CNN)
• Amazon Partners with Lamborghini, Rivian to Offer Alexa Voice Assistant in Vehicles. (CNBC)
• Apple Made Investors Half a Trillion Dollars Last Year. Time to Hedge Your Bets. (Barrons)

Law of Diminishing Returns

At some point, more of the same stops paying off ...

 

via Sketchplanations

Nature (and common sense) reminds us that equilibrium is important. For example, when you exercise too much you get injured, when you drink too much water you get poisoned, etc. 

This concept applies almost everywhere.

• It's why diversification is so important in portfolio construction theory. 
• Or, why you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket (concentrating your risk).
• And, my favorite, it's also why you shouldn't only eat vegetables.

 

A related nugget of wisdom from the extreme ... too much of a good thing is a bad thing. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 12th, 2020

As the Australian wildfires rage on - an inestimable number of animals have died.

If you wish to donate to help relief efforts, you can do so with any of these trusted sources. 

• The Australian Red Cross
• GIVIT - Donating Essential items to Victims
• St. Vincent De Paul Society
• The Nature Conservancy Australia

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• 20-year-old McDonald's Burger Still Looks Brand New, Smells like Cardboard. (FoxNews)
• Japanese Woman Turns 117 Years Old, Extends Record as World's Oldest Person. (Reuters)
• China Quietly Confirms a Third CRISPR-Edited Baby Has Been Born. (ScienceAlert)
• Pope Francis Apologizes for Losing His Patience after Slapping Woman's Hand. (FoxNews)
• Fresh Cambridge Analytica Leak Shows Global Manipulation is Out of Control'. (TheGuardian)

 

Trading Links:

• Jeff Bezos is Still the Richest Person in the World. (CNN)
• 4 High-Potential Sectors for AI and ML Startup Success. (Readwrite)
• Tesla Delivered 367,500 Cars Last Year. (CNN)
• The Market Surged Last Year. Don't Expect the Same in 2020. (New York Times)
• It Was a Dismal Year for Hedge Funds: Here Are 2019'S Fund Closures and Family-Office Conversions. (ZeroHedge)

 

A Debt You Can't Pay

The concept of "Debt" can be confusing to a layman. Most people understand what it means when they take on debt with a local bank, but it can be harder to understand the role debt plays in global economics.

Compounding the confusion, the implications of debt change on a macro level. 

Many worry that our "excessive" government debt levels impact economic stability, the strength of our currency, and unemployment. The national debt can only be reduced through five mechanisms: increased taxation, reduced spending, debt restructuring, monetization of the debt, or default. 

The idea behind our current global debt structure is that if two nations are mutually obligated and dependent on each other, they are less likely to go to war. And that has held relatively true so far. Of course, it's not a perfect system, and it can break down, but as yet, it's working compared to previous systems such as the balance of power.

In some ways, it's fake money, so paying off our debts seems insurmountable. Yet, our economy is reliable so we're allowed to continue borrowing. Debt is also an important part of the economic machine - it can be argued that we wouldn't have money without debt. 

Ray Dalio created a simple (but not simplistic) and relatively easy to follow 30 minute animated video that answers the question, "How does the economy really work?"  Click to watch.

 

via Ray Dalio

To learn more about Dalio's Economic Principles visit: http://www.economicprinciples.org.

The global economy has hugely increased in size in the last 50 years as developing nations prosper. The average global GDP per capita has gone from ~$1000 to over $10,000 in my lifetime.

So it makes sense that the amount of debt is also increasing with the size of the money supply required to conduct all the transactions in the global economy.

The U.S. tops the list with debt to GDP at 104.3% and almost $22 Trillion in debt, but is dwarfed by #2 Japan's debt to GDP rate of 237.1%. 

via Visual Capitalist 

 

Meanwhle, China has increased its indebtedness by $2 trillion in the last two years. 

The market is not the economy. Meaning, the performance of markets is not necessarily linked to the performance of the economy (and the converse is true as well). Even though you may be more interested in trading, economics is still important to understand and follow. 

If one thing is clear, it's that 2020 will be an interesting year for markets and the economy. 

There is a lot of opportunity in crisis and chaos.

 

A Serendipitous Moonshot

Hope you’re enjoying the New Year!

On January 2^nd, 2020,  after many years of hard work, we launched the Capitalogix Absolute Return Fund.

It’s been a long and hard road ... but also a labor of love.

On a related note, I’ve talked about moonshots, playing a different game, and getting comfortable being uncomfortable.   These themes come up because they define what we do at Capitalogix and what was necessary to create the technology platform that runs the fund. 

Speaking of getting comfortable being uncomfortable, I spent the last week on a family cruise through the Caribbean.  

 

 

We celebrated many important events including my mother’s 80^th birthday, my sister’s 50th birthday, and Jennifer and my 12^th wedding anniversary.

We happened to be in Grand Cayman on January 2^nd, the day fund launched.

  

 

I had a chance to stop by Walker’s (our fund lawyers) to commemorate the day with them as well.

 

 

It was a great start to my year!

Let me know how your year started too.

 

Growth of the US In 2019 (and into 2020)

The US economy and its financial markets have proven resilient - if you look at the timeline of our history, there's almost unbridled growth. 

For all the hiccups, issues, downturns, etc. our economy is enormous and still growing. 

via howmuch

In fact, our largest growth came on the backs of the Great Depression and WW2 ... it makes sense, but it's a reminder of resiliency.

Looking at 2019, we've seen volatility, fear, uncertainty - but we've also seen a banner year for the S&P 500, and continued GDP growth. 

According to visual capitalist, the key sectors for growth this year were semiconductors, credit services, aerospace/defense, electornic equipment, and diversified machinery. Oil, wireless communications, foreign banks, apparel, and foreign telecoms took a hit. 

via Visual Capitalist

I share these images, not to say we're invincible, or that growth will continue forever, but to say that as we start the new year it's important to be optimistic and keep an eye on what's possible, not what obstacles we may face along the way. 

Onwards!

The Market Doesn't Care About Trump's Impeachment

On Wednesday, Trump became the  third U.S. president in history to be impeached. The Democratic-led House of Representatives passed charges against him for "abuse of power" and "obstruction of Congress." 

Wednesday was also the day that I learned many of my friends don't understand the impeachment process. Trump has not been removed from office, and with the vote to remove him coming from the Senate (assuming that the parties will vote along lines) it seems unlikely he will be removed. 

While impeachment still matters - it's essentially a demerit. He's been called to the principal's office - but he hasn't been expelled, and he's still allowed to finish the year and apply for next year. He'll likely finish his first term, and has a chance for a second term. 

So why go through with the process?

Democrats hope to convince "moderate" Republicans to vote against party lines, and Republicans believe this is a farce/smear campaign that will only solidify support for Trump and embolden their base.

Currently, it feels like Nancy Pelosi is going through the motions just to say she went through them. 

It's a seemingly futile exercise in partisan politics ... but it will take until the results of the upcoming Presidential election to truly decide. 

Regardless, the market currently doesn't care ... at all. 

The Bulls Live On 

Before impeachment, Trump warned that the stock market would plummet if he was impeached. 

By the end of Wednesday's regular session, equities had weakened slightly, but all major indexes were trading near all-time highs.

It makes sense. Republicans and Democrats voted along party lines, and they'll do the same in the Senate. So, there's little reason for the market to worry. 

via cub3dworld

Even if some Republicans voted against party lines, the vote needs a 2/3 majority to pass. 

Markets respond to fear and excitement - and while there's political grandstanding on both sides, nothing really has happened. Even if Trump were removed, Pence would remain a supporter of Trump's policies. 

In the long-term, this raises questions about who will govern us in the future, what policies will be passed, etc... All things that will influence the market. 

Time will tell what the results will be, but it feels like we're safe from major political news until Super Tuesday in March. 

Hedge Funds: Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night

Hedge Funds - and active managers in general - have been under fire for several years. Almost 50% of Hedge Funds saw a decline in assets under management (AUM) in 2018.

On the surface, it makes sense ... during a long-term bull market, indexes and other passive options like ETFs become en vogue. During a bear market, active management offers more opportunities to outperform the market. 

Hedge funds are designed to, you guessed it, hedge risk. So, when investors see less risk in indexes, the demand for active management declines. Especially when performance declines as well. 

via Bloomberg

When something monumental changes the past is left behind and you begin a new future. When electricity was created, no one was going to make candles the primary form of lighting. After the introduction of the car, horses & buggies were never going to be the #1 mode of transportation, and we're also seeing that with the adoption of AI & automation. 

Most changes aren't monumental.

I have a fundamental belief that things go in and out of phase and that what's once old is often new again. You see it with fashion, music, phones - etc. First phones got bigger in order to do more, then smaller for convenience, and then larger again so that old dudes like me can read the text. 

I believe it's the same with active management - the techniques may have gone out of phase - but active management still offers the potential outperformance. The trend mirrors the stock market; bulls turn to bears when buyers run out - so as outflows from funds continue to peak, and funds continue to close, it seems reasonable that there will come a time when demand rises again. 

At that point, "active management" will give way to "Active Switching™" (which goes beyond stock picking to choose the markets, techniques, time frames, risk levels, allocation strategies, etc. using a variety of techniques, data sources, and real-time contextual clues).

This is part of what's covered in my upcoming book, "Next On Wall Street: Understanding AI's Inevitable Impact on Trading."

Looking forward to launching that book in early 2020.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 8th, 2019

For a candidate with an "age" issue, not sure if this was a smart move ...

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Don't Apologize for Having High Standards. (LinkedIn)
• Automation is Not Intelligence. (Forbes)
• How to Talk to Aliens. (Economist)
• 52 Things I Learned in 2019. (Medium)
• McLaren Unveils $1.7 Million Supercar with No Roof and a Windshield Made of Air. (CNN)

 

Trading Links:

• When to Buy into Aramco. (Wall Street Journal)
• How Spices Have Made, and Unmade, Empires. (New York Times)
• The First New US Airport since 2010 is in North Dakota's Oil Country. (TPG)
• This Widening Crack in the Mortgage Market Could Sink U.S. Home Prices. (MarketWatch)
• One Man's Quest to Challenge Wall Street With a New Silicon Valley Stock Exchange. (Telegraph)