This lighthearted post has something to do with artificial ... but nothing to do with artificial intelligence.
While doing my weekly reading and web browsing (which is how I pick those links you probably think an algorithm selects), I happened upon a post about Michael Jackson on Twitter (now called X), and I enjoyed it (or at least was drawn to click and watch it).
It's funny to look back on, but Zach used to dance to Michael Jackson's songs on stage at his Elementary School talent shows or at random restaurants. There was no choreography ... but lots of movement. I still smile when I think about it.
You might smile (or shake your head) while watching this short video chronicling the evolution of Michael Jackson's face changes from birth to death.
It's a staggering difference. I won't pretend to know what led him to make the changes, but they're substantial.
That being said, his music is both timely and timeless - which is very rare. He managed to make music in each era that fit in with the times but still felt very Michael Jackson.
March Madness is in full swing and will have the world's attention for a few more days. As you can guess, almost no one has a perfect bracket anymore. Yale beat Auburn, James Madison beat Wisconsin, Michigan State beat Mississippi State, and by the end of day 1, only 2,000 brackets remained intact. That's .008% of all brackets submitted.
Before 24/7 sports channels, people watched the weekly show "The Wide World of Sports." Its opening theme promised "The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat!" and "The human drama of athletic competition." That defines March Madness.
The holy grail is mighty elusive in March Madness (as in most things). For example, the odds of getting the perfect bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (2.4 trillion based on a Duke Mathematician's formula that takes into account rank). It's easier to win back-to-back lotteries than picking a perfect bracket. Nonetheless, I bet you felt pretty good when you filled out your bracket.
In 2018, it was estimated that March Madness generated $10 Billion in gambling (twice as much as the Super Bowl)
Feeding the Madness
"Not only is there more to life than basketball, there's a lot more to basketball than basketball." - Phil Jackson
In 2017, I highlighted three people who were (semi) successful at predicting March Madness: a 13-year-old who used a mix of guesswork and preferences, a 47-year-old English woman who used algorithms and data science (despite not knowing the game), and a 70-year-old bookie who had his finger on the pulse of the betting world. None of them had the same success even a year later.
Finding an edge is hard - Maintaining an edge is even harder.
That's not to say there aren't edges to be found.
Bracket-choosing mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets. Some people use gut feelings, some base their decisions on current and historical performance, and some use predictive models. You've got different inputs, weights, and miscellaneous factors influencing your decision. That makes you feel powerful. But knowing the history, their ranks, etc., can help make an educated guess, and they can also lead you astray.
The allure of March Madness is the same as gambling or trading. As sports fans, it's easy to believe we know something the layman doesn't. We want the bragging rights of that sleeper pick, of our alma mater winning, of the big upset.
You'd think an NCAA analyst might have a better shot at a perfect bracket than your grandma or musical-loving co-worker.
In reality, several of the highest-ranked brackets every year are guesses.
The commonality in all decisions is that we are biased. Bias is inherent to the process because there isn't a clear-cut answer. We don't know who will win or what makes a perfect prediction.
Think about it from a market efficiency standpoint. People make decisions based on many factors — sometimes irrational ones — which can create inefficiencies and complexities. It can be hard to find those inefficiencies and capitalize on them, but they're there to be found.
In trading, AI and advanced math help remove biases and identify inefficiencies humans miss.
Can machine learning also help in March Madness?
“The greater the uncertainty, the bigger the gap between what you can measure and what matters, the more you should watch out for overfitting - that is, the more you should prefer simplicity” - Tom Griffiths
That being said, people have tried before with mediocre success. It's hard to overcome the intangibles of sports - hustle, the crowd, momentum - and it's hard to overcome 1 in 9.2 quintillion odds.
Two lessons can be learned from this:
People aren't as good at prediction as they predict they are.
Machine Learning isn't a one-size-fits-all answer to all your problems.
In 2018, while in New York for work, I was invited to a party that ended up being a pretty unique experience.
The rules were that for the first hour it would be first names only, no discussion of what you do, etc. Part of the fun was figuring out who was there and why they were special. And, there were a lot of pretty impressive people in the room. As I was wondering who was able to bring all these experts and thought leaders into one home for a house party, I found it was Nouriel Roubini - the infamous Harvard economist known as Dr. Doom.
Nouriel Roubini's predictions have earned him the nicknames "Dr. Doom" and "PermaBear" in the media. He predicted the housing bubble crash in 2007-2008, and has extensively studied the collapse of emerging economies.
So, after a tumultuous few years for the global economy, I thought I'd check back in and see what he was saying.
It turns out he's less pessimistic than you would guess. He's pretty optimistic about 2024 growth and not particularly worried about a recession—though he is expecting a downturn.
He also thinks there's a possibility that growth remains above potential, and inflation remains sticky. That would be good news for the economy, but bad news for markets – as the Fed likely wouldn't cut as much or as soon as people are hoping for.
Now, Nouriel has been wrong before, and I don't trust any singular pundit. My mindset is to listen to voices that don't already believe what I do. I tend to be optimistic as a rule, and I've been optimistic on things like blockchain, whereas Nouriel has been staunchly negative.
But, he's a smart and educated voice who can justify his opinions. And I end up more educated - and often modifying my stance a little bit - based on the context he's able to give.
Unsurprisingly, the antagonism and hatred from both sides of the fence are still in full force - now with extra boosts from fake news and AI's influence.
Surprisingly (to me), the frontrunners are still Biden and Trump, despite them being 81 and 77, respectively ... or despite Trump's several cases against him and Biden's horrible approval ratings ... or ... (it seems like we could keep finding reasons to be surprised).
Truthfully, I am surprised neither party is running someone "better" in this election.
It feels like almost everyone I talk with is voting for the "lesser of two evils," even though they know it may not serve the greater good.
Here is a chart showing third-year approval ratings of first-term Presidents since WWII.
I thought the last Presidential election was pretty interesting, but this one's shaping up to be even more so. If it were fiction, no one would believe it.
The most popular issue on people's minds is the economy, but we also have controversial issues around trust in the government, immigration, abortion, foreign policy, and even the fate of Democracy in America itself.
For all the economic woes and complaints, the unemployment rate remains low, GDP growth is strong, and the S&P 500 recently hit record highs. Yet, Americans are still feeling it in their pockets as the price of goods has gone up.
It is a good reminder that the "facts" are often less important than how it feels.
It is still early, but what do you think will happen?
You can find forecasts anywhere ... but since they're basically guesswork and I don't know what data they are using or excluding, I don't spend much time on them.
That said, I found this infographic easy to look at and think about. So, it's as good a place to start as any. Also, VC draws from a database of 700 expert forecasts to make this chart.
Some are pretty easy to predict - like GenAI's shift to text-to-video. Or, an increase in lawsuits and regulations around AI. Others are questionable. In the past few months, we've seen TikTok investing heavily in the growth of its e-commerce business. Insiders have stated they believe they're trying to compete with Amazon. We'll see how that goes?
On a positive note, it seems like most are predicting positive effects on the market & economy, including a decrease in inflation and interest rates, bonds on the way back, and record highs in the S&P 500.
I'd love to hear your predictions. What do you think?
Nine years in front of entertainment devices - another 10.5 years spent working. You get the idea.
If you have goals you want to accomplish, aspirational travel, and lifestyle plans - this really puts the idea of finding and living your passion in perspective.
Do you have the time to waste it?
VisualCapitalist put together a chart projecting longevity based on 2020 mortality rates.
I turned 60 this July, so I only have 20 years left, according to this calculator. I expect more!
There are some interesting statistical facts in this; for example, an average American baby boy can expect to live until 74 ... but if that boy turns 21, his life expectancy jumps to over 75.
While these numbers seem pretty high, there are two things to consider. First, COVID heavily reduced these numbers because mortality rates went up. That likely won't continue (though it will likely continue to affect your insurance premiums and pension benefits).
Also, remember that these numbers are based on 2020 averages, which likely differ from you (specifically considering your race, income, location, etc.). These numbers also don't take into account expected medical and technology advances, etc.
Finally, I think Purpose is one of the most important catalysts of longevity. People often die when they retire ... not because they're done working, but because they're done striving.
In 2018, the local news did a brief story about Capitalogix - centered around finding tech talent ... and how hard it can be.
It has only become harder since then. In part because of the growing demand for tech talent ... and in part because success today requires a higher level of mathematical, statistical, and innovative problem-solving talent than ever before.
And that's only part of the reason that I'm proud of our team!
The robots aren't coming for our jobs. We're creating the robots, the AI, and the automation.
The secret to great AI is that it still has a heartbeat.
It's not enough to invest in the right ideas or technologies. You have to invest in the right people as well.
"Standing still is moving backward ... so you don't only need new technology, you need a new level of data scientists – a new level of professional that can think about what's possible, rather than how to do what we want to do right now."
Even though we've got an incredible edge now. I recognize that edges decay faster than ever. The trick is to stay ahead.
I can predict that the future is bright ... And I know that the best way to predict the future is to create it.
Honestly, the fact that we’re at the top of the food chain is pretty miraculous.
We’re slow, we’re weak, and we’re famously bad at understanding large numbers and exponential growth.
Our brains are hardwired to think locally and linearly.
It’s a monumental task for us to fathom exponential growth … let alone its implications.
Think how many companies have failed due to that inability … RadioShack didn’t foresee a future where shopping was done online. Kodak didn’t think digital cameras would replace good ol’ film. Blockbuster dismissed a future where people would want movies in their mailboxes because they were anchored to the belief that “part of the joy is seeing all your options!” They didn’t even make it long enough to see “Netflix and Chill” become a thing.
Innovation is a reminder that you can’t be medium-obsessed. Kodak’s goal was to preserve memories. It wasn’t to sell film. Blockbuster’s goal wasn’t to get people in their stores; it was to get movies in homes.
Henry Ford famously said: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Steve Jobs was famous for spending all his time with customers but never asking them what they wanted.
Two of our greatest innovators realized something that many never do. Being conscientious of your consumers doesn’t necessarily mean listening to them. It means thinking about and anticipating their wants and future needs.
Tech and AI are creating tectonic forces throughout industry and the world. It is time to embrace and leverage what that makes possible. History has many prior examples of Creative Destruction (and what gets left in the dust).
We're now midway through the Cowboys Season, and despite injuries plaguing the team, we just had a fantastic 43 - 20 victory over the Rams.
At every game, I run into this guy, and every game he wears a different creative, and well-thought-out costume. He sits on the 50-yard line. He wears Ferragamo shoes and a nice watch. For his day job, he is the Head of Psychiatry at a well-known hospital in the area. Yet, something about this game captures his imagination.
Jerry Jones does a lot right in how he builds his "Disney Ride." But this post will focus more on what the coaches and players do.
I'm regularly surprised by the levels of innovation and strategic thinking I see in football.
Football is something I used to love to play. And it is still something that informs my thoughts and actions.
Some lessons relate to being part of a team, while others relate to the coaching or management side of things.
Some of these lessons stem back to youth football ... but I still learn things watching games – and even more, from watching Dallas Cowboys practices at The Star.
Think about it ... even in middle school, the coaches have a game plan. There are team practices and individual drills. They have a depth chart, which lists the first, second, and third choices to fill certain roles. In short, they focus on the fundamentals in a way that most businesses don't.
The picture, below, is of my brother's high school team way back in 1989.
To re-state, most businesses are less prepared for their problems than an 8th-grade football team. Now, that might sound offensive to some of you – but if you think about it ... it's pretty accurate.
Losing to an 8th Grade Team
I shot this video right before the COVID-19 shutdown. I encourage you to watch it. I think it's 3 minutes well spent.
Football teams think about how to improve each player, how to beat this week's opponent, and then how to string together wins to achieve a higher goal.
The team thinks of itself as a team. They expect to practice. And they get coached.
In addition, there is a playbook for both offense and defense. And they watch game films to review what went right ... and what they can learn from for use later.
Contrast that with many businesses. Entrepreneurs often get myopic ... they get focused on today, focused on survival, and they lose sight of the bigger picture and how all the pieces fit together.
The amount of thought and preparation that goes into football - which is ultimately a game - is a valuable lesson for business.
What about when you get to the highest level? If an 8th-grade football team is equivalent to a normal business, what about businesses that are killing it? That would be similar to an NFL team.
Let's look at the Cowboys.
Practice Makes Perfect
How you do one thing is how you do everything. So, they try to do everything right.
Each time I've watched a practice session, I've come away impressed by the amount of preparation, effort, and skill displayed.
During practice, there's a scheduled agenda. The practice is broken into chunks, and each chunk has a designed purpose and a desired intensity. There's a rhythm, even to the breaks.
Every minute is scripted. There's a long-term plan to handle the season ... but, there was also a focus on the short-term details and their current opponent.
They alternate between individual and group drills. Moreover, the drills run fast ... but for shorter time periods than you'd guess. It is bang-bang-bang – never longer than a millennial's attention span. And they move from drill to drill – working not just on plays, but also on skillsets (where are you looking, which foot do you plant, how do you best use your hands, etc.).
They use advanced technology (including advanced player monitoring, biometric tracking, and medical recovery devices ... but also things like robotic tackling dummies and virtual reality headsets).
They don't just film games, they film the practices ... and each individual drill. Coaches and players get a cut of the film on their tablets as soon as they leave. It is a process of constant feedback and constant improvement. Everything has the potential to be a lesson.
Beyond The Snap
The focus is not just internal, on the team. They focus on the competition as well. Before a game, the coaches prepare a game plan and have the team watch tape of their opponent in order to understand the tendencies and mentally prepare for what's going to happen.
During the game, changes in personnel groups and schemes keep competitors on their toes and allow the team to identify coverages and predict plays. If the offense realizes a play has been predicted, they call an audible based on what they see in front of them. Coaches from different hierarchies work in tandem to respond faster to new problems.
After the game, the film is reviewed in detail. Each person gets a grade on each play, and the coaches make notes for each person about what they did well and what they could do better.
Think about it ... everyone knows what game they are playing ... and for the most part, everybody understands the rules and how to keep score (and even where they are in the standings). Even the coaches get feedback based on performance, and they look to others for guidance.
Imagine how easy that would be to do in business. Imagine how much better things could be if you did those things.
Challenge accepted.
And, in celebration of a Cowboys win ... here's me doing a cartwheel. I'm sure my body will feel great tomorrow ...
It is easy to keep up – until you pause or slow down.
Being an Early Adopter was a big part of my identity. At this point in my life, I am still early with respect to new technologies, but I feel like I'm losing touch with a lot of today's culture.
Perhaps this started over a decade ago? I remember finding my sons' slang and music off-putting.
As an aside, my youngest son, Zach, went through a phase where it felt like he used the verbal tic ... "Dude" in every other sentence. Parenting trick – I broke his habit by screaming "FOOPDEEDOO!!" every time he said it, regardless of when it happened, where we were, or who we were with.
If it's crazy and it works ... it's not crazy. He certainly stopped saying "dude".
OK, back to the point. I realize that the Top 40 is basically a list of 40 songs that I don't know (and feel like I only randomly know some of the artists). Meanwhile, my staff laughingly refer to my favorite stations on SiriusXM radio as old-man music.
To make the point further, my research assistant asked me if I knew about Bad Bunny. To me, it sounded like a Disney cartoon for Halloween. But, apparently, he is a Grammy-winning recording artist who won "Album of the Year" for music that I had never heard.
It didn't take long to get to the list of top Spotify artists. For the record, I do know most of those artists – but admittedly few of their songs.
But as I said, listening to the Top 40 is getting harder for me. Where's the rock (or songs with discernable melodies)?!
Meanwhile, I'm about to start a new art exhibit. I call it "Jen Sleeps At Pop Concerts"
So far, we've got Taylor Swift, Coldplay, Beyoncé, Ariana Grande, Bob Seger, the Eagles, and the Rolling Stones. In case you're curious, she did not fall asleep at John Legend, Queen, or Ed Sheeran.
March Is Always Madness ...
March Madness is in full swing and will have the world's attention for a few more days. As you can guess, almost no one has a perfect bracket anymore. Yale beat Auburn, James Madison beat Wisconsin, Michigan State beat Mississippi State, and by the end of day 1, only 2,000 brackets remained intact. That's .008% of all brackets submitted.
Before 24/7 sports channels, people watched the weekly show "The Wide World of Sports." Its opening theme promised "The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat!" and "The human drama of athletic competition." That defines March Madness.
The holy grail is mighty elusive in March Madness (as in most things). For example, the odds of getting the perfect bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (2.4 trillion based on a Duke Mathematician's formula that takes into account rank). It's easier to win back-to-back lotteries than picking a perfect bracket. Nonetheless, I bet you felt pretty good when you filled out your bracket.
via Duke University
Here's some more crazy March Madness Stats:
Feeding the Madness
In 2017, I highlighted three people who were (semi) successful at predicting March Madness: a 13-year-old who used a mix of guesswork and preferences, a 47-year-old English woman who used algorithms and data science (despite not knowing the game), and a 70-year-old bookie who had his finger on the pulse of the betting world. None of them had the same success even a year later.
Finding an edge is hard - Maintaining an edge is even harder.
That's not to say there aren't edges to be found.
Bracket-choosing mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets. Some people use gut feelings, some base their decisions on current and historical performance, and some use predictive models. You've got different inputs, weights, and miscellaneous factors influencing your decision. That makes you feel powerful. But knowing the history, their ranks, etc., can help make an educated guess, and they can also lead you astray.
The allure of March Madness is the same as gambling or trading. As sports fans, it's easy to believe we know something the layman doesn't. We want the bragging rights of that sleeper pick, of our alma mater winning, of the big upset.
You'd think an NCAA analyst might have a better shot at a perfect bracket than your grandma or musical-loving co-worker.
In reality, several of the highest-ranked brackets every year are guesses.
The commonality in all decisions is that we are biased. Bias is inherent to the process because there isn't a clear-cut answer. We don't know who will win or what makes a perfect prediction.
Think about it from a market efficiency standpoint. People make decisions based on many factors — sometimes irrational ones — which can create inefficiencies and complexities. It can be hard to find those inefficiencies and capitalize on them, but they're there to be found.
In trading, AI and advanced math help remove biases and identify inefficiencies humans miss.
Can machine learning also help in March Madness?
The data is there. Over 100,000 NCAA regular-season games were played over the last 25+ years, and we generally have plenty of statistics about the teams for each season. There are plenty of questions to be asked about that data that may add an extra edge.
That being said, people have tried before with mediocre success. It's hard to overcome the intangibles of sports - hustle, the crowd, momentum - and it's hard to overcome 1 in 9.2 quintillion odds.
Two lessons can be learned from this:
Something to think about.
Posted at 06:36 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Games, Healthy Lifestyle, Ideas, Just for Fun, Market Commentary, Science, Sports, Television, Trading | Permalink | Comments (0)
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