Capitalogix

Are You As Good As You Once Were?

Toby Keith has a song that claims: “I ain't as good as I once was ... But I'm as good once, as I ever was.”

 

 

Probably not ... but it was fun to get back in the Shot Put circle at Duke University.

I was there for Graduation Weekend.

Apple CEO Tim Cook today delivered the 2018 commencement address. Here is a video.

 

Cook challenged students to "think different" rather than accept the status quo, and to leave the world better than they found it, by following in the footsteps of leaders like Steve Jobs, Robert F. Kennedy, and Martin Luther King Jr.

An excerpt from his speech:

 

The pace at which progress is possible has accelerated dramatically. Aided by technology, every individual has the tools, potential, and reach to build a better world. That makes this the best time in history to be alive. Whatever you choose to do with your life, wherever your passion takes you, I urge you to take the power you have been given and use it for good. Aspire to leave this world better than you found it.

I didn't always see life as clearly as I do today. But I've learned that the greatest challenge of life is knowing when to break with conventional wisdom. Don't just accept the world you inherit today. Don't just accept the status quo. No big challenge has ever been solved, and no lasting improvement has ever been achieved, unless people dare to try something different. Dare to think different.

I was lucky to learn from someone who believed this deeply—someone who knew that changing the world starts with following a vision, not a path. He was my friend and mentor, Steve Jobs.

Steve's vision was that great ideas come from a restless refusal to accept things as they are, and those principles still guide us at Apple today. We reject the notion that global warming is inevitable—that's why we run Apple on 100 percent renewable energy. We reject the excuse that getting the most out of technology means trading away your right to privacy. So we choose a different path: collecting as little of your data as possible, and being thoughtful and respectful when it's in our care.

 

Cook graduated from Auburn University and got his MBA at Duke's Fuqua School of Business in 1988.  He is a member of Duke's Board of Trustees.

Hyper-Reality: The Future of Augmented Reality?

Our physical and virtual realities are beginning to blend.  Animation is becoming more realistic.  Virtual and augmented reality are becoming more affordable. Wearables are becoming pervasive.  And, the internet of things will soon overtake the Internet.

We're moving towards a world where technology envelops every aspect of our lives ... figuratively and literally. 

The following (still fictional) video is thought-provoking.  What happens when these new technologies are used to influence behavior, decision-making, and even your identity?  

 

Keiichi Matsuda via Vimeo

Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) are not new fields - but, they are evolving quickly. Technology and infrastructure are getting to the point that AR and VR will become common for us.

You have already started to see it (from Google Glass, to the NBA, and of course, to porn). 

"Not too far in the future you will begin to see the integration of AR and VR together eventually leading to having your favorite performer on your lap, in your bedroom doing a custom performance for you and responding to your verbal and physical cues."

- Anna Lee, HoloFilm Productions

Your doctor or nutritionist could help you make better choices for you.  Your therapist or coach could help you perceive and respond differently to the challenges life presents you.  Marketers could better influence your purchases.  Employers could better monitor and measure your performance and productivity. And governments will not be far behind ... doing what they do.

Like many things, these technologies make possible awesome new capabilities (if used well) and horrific consequences (if abused or used in authoritarian ways).

Similar issues are being dealt with in the fields of BioEthics and AI Ethics. In addition, there is a growing discussion of the impact these technologies will have on society. 

We live in interesting times! 

Related articles

What Effect Will VR and AR Have on B2B Customer Service?

Rumors of the demise of augmented reality developers have been greatly exaggerated

Get ready for augmented reality *everything*

Remember Google Glass? It just got its first update in 3 years. Seriously.

Chinese police are using facial-recognition glasses to scan travelers

23 concepts that show what Apple's futuristic smart glasses might look like (AAPL)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 18th, 2018

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• SpaceX Hid a Second, Secret Payload Aboard Falcon Heavy, and It Sounds Amazing. (ScienceAlert)
• Weird: Naked Mole Rats Don't Die of Old Age. (FoxNews)
• Your WHOLE Body Could Be Replaced or Upgraded' with Robot Parts by 2070. (TheSun)
• Drones Grounded at Opening Ceremony _ but Not on Tape Delay. (AP News)
• These Videos of the North Korean Cheerleading Squad Chanting Will Haunt Your Nightmares. (SomeEcards)

Trading Links:

• How Bitcoin's Plunge May Have Been a Precursor to Market Turmoil. (CNBC)
• Blockchain, AI, Machine Learning & IOE Will Make You Money in 2018. (Forbes)
• BlackRock's Message: Contribute to Society, or Risk Losing Our Support. (New York Times)
• US Tax Reform Could Cause Repatriation of $2 Trillion Overseas Investment. (Worldview)
• A Bunch of Shell-shocked Wall Streeters Met in Paradise during the Market Meltdown Here's What Scares Them Most. (BusinessInsider)

Why You Can't Predict March Madness

Last year, I shared some facts about March Madness. For example, the chances of a perfect bracket are  at 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. For those who don't wanna do the math that's 9.2 quintillions. 

This year, 16-seed UMBC (The Chesapeake Bay Retrievers) beat 1-seed Virginia, and left no perfect brackets after only 28 Games. 

As we came into the Elite Eight, nobody picked all eight. Almost nobody predicted No. 3 Texas Tech making it this far ... and there were 17,304,320 digital brackets this year. 

Is there any way to accurately predict something with this many potentialities and this much discord?

Different factors can feel like they provide an edge ... knowing the history of teams, their ranks, how often they've been to the Final Four, or how great their coach is ... but even that knowledge can lead you astray. You'd think an NCAA analyst might have a better shot at a perfect bracket than your grandma or co-worker, but several of the highest-ranked brackets this year were guesses. 

via ESPN

It's fun guessing when you're making bets on college basketball, but what if this is your livelihood ...

Prediction is hard ... especially about the future.

The way people fill out their brackets often mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets. Some use gut feel, some base their decisions on rank and past performance, and some use predictive models ... and some of us get disappointed when Duke loses.

 Apparently, humans aren't as great at prediction as we think we are. 

Avoiding Death by Snowmobile

I was in Saskatchewan, Canada last week for my first-ever snowmobiling experience.

When I got there, everyone was in great spirits. Apparently, this is a sport done with day drinking, lots of laughter, and abandon.

We split into groups: Insane, Merely Crazy, and the Turtles.

I figured I was relatively safe with the Turtles. Still, I have to admit that I was a little nervous. The machines are capable of gliding over the snow at speeds approaching 200 miles per hour. And, I heard stories that 70 percent of these outings ended in some form of injury. Those are some sphincter-tightening things to put together.

The scenery was majestic.

But I didn't notice till it was over.  Humans are deletion creatures. That means they can hold seven things (plus or minus two) in their memory. Everything else gets filtered or deleted. For example, in chess, a grandmaster can focus on the portion of the board that is most proximately related to winning. A novice, however, wastes their buffers with thoughts like "the horsey-thing goes up two and over one."

While everyone else was focused on having fun, I focused on how to make the sled do something. There were no instructions that said click this, press that. Here's the brake, or, the three most important things to remember are … 

I quickly learned two rules. The first, you have to lean in the direction that you want to turn (otherwise the sled tips over). By the way, it took me a few iterations to figure this one out. 

Here is a picture of me just after they dug me out from under the sled.

 

 

The second rule is to try to stay on the sled. I never quite figured that rule out fully. 

I guess you can be skillful, you can be lucky, or you can pray.

Luckily, I saw Father Rac before we started.   My question was whether he was here to bless the participants or perform last rites.

 

 

 

After a nice conversation, he said he'd pray for me.

In my industry, we call that hedging.

I did last longer than the sled.  It had to be towed.

Meanwhile, I still have ten fingers and ten toes, ended the day vertically, and had a ton of fun.  Victory!

I’ll suck less next time.

Super Bowl Tickets

Guys

 I know it's late notice, but a friend of mine has two tickets for the Super Bowl in Minneapolis, MN at the new U. S. Bank Stadium on Sunday, February 4th. They are box seats and he paid $3,500 per ticket, which includes the ride to and from the airport, lunch, dinner, a $400.00 bar tab and a pass to the winner's locker room after the game.

 What he didn't realize when he bought them last year was that it's on the same day as his wedding.

 

 

story hat-tip to JW.

 

If you are interested, he is looking for someone to take his place. It's at St. Paul's Church at 3 p.m. Her name is Ashley. She's 5'4", about 115 pounds, a good cook, loves to fish and hunt and will clean your truck. She'll be the one in the white dress.

 

Saw this and thought it was funny. 

 

Who do you think is going to win the Superbowl? Patriots or Eagles?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 28th, 2018

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Trump Reportedly Uses an Indian Accent to Mimic Modi at Meetings. (Quartz)
• Statistician is One of the Fastest-growing Jobs for the Future. (Qz)
• Compare Your Fears against Reality. (FlowingData)
• Vladimir Putin Takes Dip in Freezing Water to Mark Epiphany. (CNN)
• China, Russia and the U.S. are Running Neck-and-neck in an AI Military Arms Race. (Latest)

Trading Links:

• How Blockchain Could Radically Alter Global Finance. (Insight)
• Davos: a Rough Guide to the World Economic Forum. (BBC)
• Are Google and Facebook Monopolies? (Review)
• 10 Charts that Will Change Your Perspective on Artificial Intelligence's Growth. (Forbes)
• Apple Rises to Become World's Fourth-Largest PC Maker with around 20M Macs Sold Last Year. (MacRumors)

What Does The Average NBA Player Look Like?

Each sport has a different ratio of ethnicities. You might expect more Pacific Islanders in Rugby or Caucasians in Golf. 

So what happens when you average the top players' faces in various sports?

As you might expect, you get very different results depending on the sport.  See what I mean?

  osmutiar via Reddit

Not particularly surprising.

What is worth noting, however,  is that while you may be thinking "this player must be unstoppable" ... statistically, he's average.

The "composite" NBA player would be the 112th best player in the league. He's the fourth best starter on an okay team. 

We found the same thing with our trading bots.  The ones that made it through the most filters weren't the star performers.  They were the average bots that did enough not to fail (but failed to make the list as top performers in any of the categories).  The survivors were generalists, not specialists.

The reminder is that you won't find exceptional specialists if your focus is on generalized safety.

Onwards.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 17th, 2017

I just saw the new Star Wars with my family.

It's a bit crazy to think about what percentage of my life occurred since the original came out

I can still remember watching the first one. 

 

BTW, I'm not 60 yet ... but, I am pushing double nickels.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• LeBron James: Keeping a Billion-dollar Body in Shape. (CNN)
• Success Strategies from a Self-made Billionaire. (TonyRobbins)
• When Robots Dream: AI Systems May Learn Better and Faster If They Can Sleep'. (Siliconangle)
• Machine Ethics and Artificial Moral Agents. (KDNuggets)
• The CIA is Telling Us How the Agency Uses Americans' Data. (Mashable)

Trading Links:

• FCC Revokes the Net Neutrality Rules. (NordVPN)
• Janet Yellen Calls Bitcoin 'Highly Speculative'. (CNN)
• Driverless Cars Will Change Auto Insurance. Here's How Insurers Can Adapt. (HBR)
• This Investor Says Millennials are 'Starting to Buy Homes in a Big Way'. (CNBC)
• Google Leads in the Race to Dominate Artificial Intelligence. (Economist)

 

Before and After The Snap: What Can Business Learn From Football?

The NFL has been in the news a lot recently (mostly for controversy ... kneeling during Anthems,  companies blaming poor sales on the decline in NFL TV ratings, concussions, and Jerry Jones trying to fire the Commissioner).

 

Nonetheless, I am impressed by the product NFL teams put on the field week-after-week and year-after-year.

 

Recently, I took some friends to The Star, which is the Cowboys' new world headquarters and training facility  (and, as a side note, cost more to build than the Cowboys' stadium).

 

 

 

This post seems like it is about football ... but it is really a playbook of things we can do in business.

What Can Business Learn From Football Teams?

If you get a chance to watch an NFL practice ... I highly recommend it.   It is an awesome experience and opportunity for a businessperson. 

 

Each time I've watched a practice session I've come away impressed by the amount of preparation, effort, and skill displayed.

 

The Cowboys' coach is Jason Garrett.  He is detail-oriented and intellectual.  His pedigree ... he is a Princeton graduate who played quarterback in the NFL.

 

 

During practice, there's a scheduled agenda. Practice is broken into chunks, and each chunk has a designed purpose and a desired intensity.  There's a rhythm, even to the breaks.

Every minute was scripted.  You could tell there was a long-term plan ... but, there was also a focus on the short-term details (many details).

They alternate between individual and group drills.  Moreover, the drills run fast ... but for shorter time periods than you'd guess.  It is bang-bang-bang – never longer than a millennial's attention span.  And they move from drill to drill – working not just on plays, but the skillsets as well (where are you looking, which foot do you plant, how do you best use your hands, etc.).

They use advanced technology (including advanced player monitoring, bio-metric tracking, and medical recovery devices ... but also things like robotic tackling dummies and virtual reality headsets). 

They don't just film games, they film the practices ... and each individual drill.  Coaches and players get a cut of the film on their tablet as soon as they leave.  It is a process of constant feedback, constant improvement, or constant renewal.

How you do one thing is how you do everything.  So, they try to do everything right. 

Pro football is one thing. College football is another. But, even in high school, the coaches have a game plan. There are team practices and individual drills. They have a depth chart, which lists the first, second, and third choice to fill certain roles.

The focus is not just internal, on the team.  They focus on the competition as well.  Before a game, the coaches prepare a game plan and have the team watch tape of their opponent in order to understand the tendencies and mentally prepare for what's going to happen.

During the game, changes in personnel groups and schemes keep competitors on their toes and allow the team to identify coverages and predict plays. Coaches from different hierarchies work in tandem to respond faster to new problems. 

After the game, the film is reviewed in detail. Each person gets a grade on each play, and the coaches make notes for each person about what they did well and what they could do better.

Think about it ... everyone knows what game they are playing ... and for the most part, everybody understands the rules, and how to keep score (and even where they are in the standings).

Imagine how easy that would be to do in business.  Imagine how much better things could be if you did those things.

Challenge accepted.