Capitalogix

Will Robots Take Your Job? How Soon?

I often talk about how robots are changing the workplace (For example here, and here) because it's a topic that hits close to home. 

I remember, back in the late 90's, starting to trade based on my knowledge and my insights (and feeling like I had an edge).  By 2003, most of my trading was automated.  But, I wouldn't have believed how much of today's daily volume is now traded by computers.

Likewise, I remember the tech bubble and recognizing that more businesses were going online.  But, I wouldn't have believed what the Internet did to retail, music, TV, banking (face it, to Business and the World in general).

Could it take your job as well?

Most don't think so.

 

 via Pew Research

Interesting.

People are not good at recognizing their biases.

For example, take "Fake News" or the recent claims from Trump that Obama wiretapped him. 

 

 

It turns out, people consistently underestimate their susceptibility to fake news - especially if the story favors their preferred candidate.

In the case of wiretapping - despite no credible evidence of wiretapping and the heads of the FBI and NSA categorically denying that Obama ordered wiretapping of Trump Tower - 47% of American and 74% of Republicans believe it's likely that Trump was wiretapped during the campaign

Regardless of the veracity of the statement, it's evidence that we have a tendency to think emotionally, and aren't always great at rationally analyzing facts. 

As proof that it's everyone, the week after the election, many Democrats believed the economy had already worsened.

Roddy Roediger is a leading expert in learning and memory, and he says there are 3 key principles that make false information believable:

 

1. Plausibility;
2. Suggestions and innuendo can be just as convincing as assertions; and
3. The more we engage with the lie, the more we misremember.

 

Good thing we're not biased ... Right?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - April 14th, 2017

United Airlines got a lot of bad press when it physically removed passengers from a flight to accommodate crew members.  A day ago, they were at it again, when they removed a couple heading to their wedding.  Could it get any worse?

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting. 

Lighter Links:

• Want to Found a Start-Up?  These are the Books You Should Read First, a Top VC Says. (CNBC)
• FDA Approves 23AndMe’s At-Home DNA Tests for 10 Diseases. (NBC News)
• “Love Drugs” Will Soon Be a Reality. but Should We Take Them? (Quartz)
• Eminent Astrophysicist Issues a Dire Warning on AI and Alien Life. (Futurism)
• Let’s Take an In-Depth Look at Current Advances in Artificial Intelligence. (Interesting Engineering)

Trading Links:

• Marijuana Price Dips to $1,679 a Pound. (247WallSt)
• Tesla Has Something Hotter Than Cars to Sell: Its Story. (New York Times)
• This is How Many U.S. Jobs Robots Will Create over the next 10 Years. (MarketWatch)
• This Cow Illustrates 8 Business Models (Infographic). (Entrepreneur)
• Steven Cohen Just Gave Millions to Crowd Sourcing Hedge Funders. (Fortune)

 

Related articles

How artificial intelligence has evolved over time

Elon Musk's Neuralink wants to boost the brain to keep up with AI

Once In a Blue Moon ... or every couple of years

Will AI Radically Change B2B Marketing? Marketers Think So

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - April 8th, 2017

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting. 

 

Lighter Links:

• How AI and Blockchain Will Change Business Organization. (HuffPost)
• Pluto Has Been Officially Reclassified as a Planet!. (Futurism)
• The Philosophy of the Matrix: from Plato and Descartes, to Eastern Philosophy. (OpenCulture)
• Tony Romo to Replace Phil Simms in Broadcast Booth. (NFL)
• The 13 Best April Fools’ Day Pranks of 2017. (Slate)

Trading Links:

• How Hackers Hijacked a Bank’s Entire Online Operation. (Wired)
• America’s System of Checks and Balances Seems to Be Working. (Economist)
• How Much People in the Trump Administration are Worth. (NYTimes)
• Santoli: Here's Why BlackRock is Throwing in the Towel on Human Stock Picking. (CNBC)
• Here’s 48 Hedge Fund Terms Every Investor Should Know. (VisualCapitalist)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading - March 25th, 2017

Let's play "Caption This Picture."

 

Found it under the headline "Aides Wrestle Drill From Trump's Hands As He Tries To Remove Obama Listening Device From Skull."  What would you caption it?

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

  

Lighter Links:

• ‘Homo Sapiens as We Know Them Will Disappear in a Century or So’. (Yuval Noah Harari)
• A Stunning Video of Mars that Took Three Months to Stitch Together—by Hand. (Wired)
• Stephen Hawking is Going to Space. (TheNextWeb)
• Darth Vader’s Suit Would Cost $18.3 Million in Real Life. (Dailyinfographic)
• How to Tell a Good Story, as Explained by George Saunders, Ira Glass, Ken Burns, Scott Simon, Catherine Burns & Others. (OpenCulture)

 

Trading Links:

• Steve Cohen is Trying to Teach Computers to Think like Top Traders. (Bloomberg)
• John Oliver on the Federal Budget. (Ritholtz)
• Measuring the Cost of Living Worldwide. (Economist)
• Are Bonds Flashing a Warning Sign for Stocks? (SeeItMarket)
• Quants are Eating Away at Wall Street's Edge. (QuantNews)

March Madness: The Last Perfect Bracket Busted After Just 40 Games

March Madness is in full swing, and it feels like everyone (and their mom) has filled a bracket.  But how do they do it?

More importantly, how do the people that are successful do it?

The video, below, highlights the "Bracket Busters" of 2015.

 

via FiveThirtyEight

 

So, who were they?  A 13-year-old who used a mix of guesswork and preferences, a 47-year-old English woman who used algorithms and data science (despite not knowing the game), and a 70-year-old bookie who had his finger on the pulse of the betting world.  

Proof that different factors can lead us to believe we have control over something with odds at 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. For those who don't wanna do the math that's 9.2 quintillion. 

That's not to say that different factors don't provide an edge. Knowing the history of the teams, their ranks, how they performed historically in the playoffs, all provide important information, to humans and machines that try to make the perfect bracket.

The way people fill out their brackets often mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets. Some use gut feel, some base their decisions on rank and past performance, and some use predictive models.

Just as an FYI, this March Madness, the last perfect bracket busted after just 40 games.  This includes reporting on tens of millions of brackets from NCAA.com, Bleacher Report, CBS, ESPN, Fox Sports and Yahoo.

People aren't as good at prediction as they predict they are.

Something to think about. 

What Do You Really Have to Fear?

I recently attended a cybersecurity roundtable with Congressman Pete Sessions.

 

 

The message was disturbing ... But, you already knew that; didn't you?

First, check out this interactive attack map.

 

 

It's scary ... it shows the attacks happening now, their types, and their targets ... in real time.

Perhaps scarier, however, was the discussion on privacy.  One of the messages was not to be so worried about privacy ... You don't have any.  

Your data is already out there;  what you need to worry about is whether someone intends to use it. 

The question isn't whether your data has been compromised, it's whether you've been targeted. 

Just a warning. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading - February 26th, 2017

I think frameworks are an important tool.  Here's one that seems to be in use a lot recently.

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The Future of Work Manifesto. (TechCrunch)
• The Art and Science of Learning Anything Faster. (FourHourWorkWeek)
• The Five Best Super Bowl Commercials. (Washington Post)
• How to Find out If Your IPhone 7 Has Faster or Slower LTE Modem. (iPhoneHacks)
• Google Flights Will Now Tell You When Fares Will Increase, Help You Find Cheaper Tickets. (TechCrunch)

Trading Links:

• UBS Wealth Chief on Fintech: 'We are beyond Fighting'. (BusinessInsider)
• Uber Hires NASA Veteran to Help It Figure out Flying Cars. (TheVerge)
• Trump's Bonfire of Banking Rules Could Burn Us All. (Flipboard)
• The Art of a China Deal. (Chinafile)
• Microsoft: Tech Companies Aren’t Getting into Financial Services to Make Friends with Banks. (CBInsights)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading - February 18th, 2016

The Great Canadian Wall is up in the north.  Looks like it will hold till spring.

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The Genomics Intelligence Revolution. (TechCrunch)
• Generation Adderall. (New York Times)
• Spending 10 Minutes a Day on Mindfulness Subtly Changes the Way You React to Everything. (HBR)
• Why You Will Marry the Wrong Person. (NYT)
• The 5 Revolutionary Technologies that Will Dominate 2017. (Salesforce)

Trading Links:

• The Immigration Ban is a Headfake, and We’re Falling For It. (Medium)
• Biden at Davos: Russia is Greatest Threat to Democracy. (USAToday)
• Volatility at Lowest Level for over a Year, Says S&P Dow Jones. (HedgeWeek)
• Jeff Bezos Just Passed Warren Buffett to Become the Third Richest Person in the World. (CNW)
• Ray Kurzweil: the World Isn’t Getting Worse. (GeekWire)

Should the Robots That Take Your Job Be Taxed?

A Chinese factory replaced 90% of their human workers with robots and production rose by 250% ... while defects dropped by 80%.

Fascinating or terrifying?

The world is changing.

Some say change is the only constant ...  Others remind of death and taxes.

In this video,  Bill Gates says we should tax robots.

 

 

Are we about to treat robots as "electronic persons"?  It isn't unprecedented ... we already treat certain business structures like people in tax and legal matters.

But, where does it stop?  

If you tax robots ... what's the difference between a robot, an algorithm, a cotton gin, or printing press?

Taxing increased productivity could have happened at any time.

Are we ready to change the face of capitalism and society?

At the extreme, it raises a question, if production and efficiency can be raised without as many humans working, what will humans do?

This quickly leads to some far-fetched (but thought-provoking) ideas and conversations.  For example, recently Elon Musk (and this presidential candidate) proposed a Universal Basic Income.  The basic premise of this is that by giving people the minimum income necessary to survive, you free them up to do what they're passionate about.

Clever ... or crazy?

We live in exciting times. 

Population Growth and Climate Change Explained by Hans Rosling

Sometimes complex things can be explained simply.

 

Hans Rosling, a Swedish medical doctor, academic, and statistician became famous for just that.  

 

He died last week.  Sadly, that is what prompted me to review some of his videos, and to share this.

 

Rosling called himself an "edutainer."  He had a knack for explaining difficult concepts (like global inequality, climate change, disease, and poverty)  using a sense of humor and a strange collection of props (including, maps, storage boxes, and colored stones) to tell the story of our world. 

  

For example, in an interview with the Guardian, Rosling beckons:  "Let me show you the world," as he used stacks of Lego-like bricks to demonstrate the dynamics of population growth, child mortality, and carbon dioxide emissions.

 

 

The Guardian via YouTube.

  

"The challenge for the world is to get everyone out of extreme poverty and get the richest people to use less fossil fuels so that everyone can share their energy levels," he said.

 

His messages were often more positive than most would think, demonstrating that life is getting better for more people, if we only bothered to look at the numbers.

 

 

Here are links to two other Rosling posts worth a look.

• How Data Can Solve the World's Most Challenging Problems. 
• The Health and Wealth of Nations.