Capitalogix

Functional Mapping: Nature's Desired Path

There's a concept in design and transportation called Desire Paths. 

The desired path is the path that users take despite the intended path by the builder of a community or application. 

Here's a great example. 

Reddit via itstartswithani

And, here's a whole community forum focused on desire paths. 

It's often easier to take advantage of human nature ... or just nature ... than fight against it. 

To that effect, I shot a short video on how this relates to your business and tech adoption. I call it functional mapping. Check it out. 

 

Understanding the natural path for both technology and your clients makes it easier to understand and anticipate the capabilities, constraints, and milestones that define your path forward.   That means you actually have to understand the different types of users and what they expect to do.

Each stage is really about the opportunity to scale desired capabilities and automation.

It isn't really about building the technology, rather, it is about supporting the desire.

You don’t have to get it right.  You just have to create momentum in the right direction.   Meaning, if you understand what is coming, you don't have to build it … but you should figure out where you want to build something that will move things in the right direction.

You’ve probably heard me talk about how Capabilities become Prototypes. Then Prototypes become Products.  And, ultimately, Products become Platforms.

This model is fractal.  That means it works on many levels of magnification or iteration.

What first looks like a product is later seen as a prototype for something bigger.

SpaceX's goal to get to Mars feels like their North Star right now ... but once it's achieved, it becomes the foundation for new goals.

This Framework helps you validate capabilities before sinking resources into them. 

It helps you anticipate which potential outcomes you want to accelerate.  Rather than simply figuring out what the easiest next step is … you have to figure out which path is the best next step to your desired outcome.

The world is changing fast! Hope you're riding the wave instead of getting caught in the riptide!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 6th, 2022

Have you paid attention at all to the Spotify controversy?

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How Emerging Tech Will Influence Freedom, Industry, and Money In the Metaverse. (VentureBeat)
• Here's What Henry Kissinger Thinks About the Future of Artificial Intelligence. (Gizmodo)
• Boston Scientists Create "Robots" that are Capable of Reproduction. (CBS News)
• Eureka Moments Come From Deep Within Subconscious Brain. (GreekReporter)
• Revenge: The Neuroscience of Why It Feels Good In the Moment, But May Be a Bad Idea In the Long Run. (NeuroScienceNews)

 

Trading Links:

• The Tech Sell-Off Has Some Venture Capitalists Worried the Good Times May Be Coming to an End. (CNBC)
• Have We Hit Peak Unicorn? (GeekWire)
• Here's Where the Jobs Are In One Chart. (CNBC)
• Amazon In Talks To Purchase Fitness Equipment Producer Peloton. (AppleInsider)
• Amazon Added More to Its Market Capitalization on Friday Than Any Company Ever Had in a Single Day. (MarketWatch)

 

It Isn’t Whether Tom Brady Is Retiring – It’s About When ... and Why We Care?

In 2017, I wrote an article “asking” why the Patriots were so good. Then Tom Brady left, the Patriots have suffered (somewhat), and Tom Brady won another Super Bowl with the Buccaneers. 

 

Now, several sports pundits are reporting that he may be retiring. Tom Brady insists that he hasn’t made a final decision yet. 

Of course, there is the matter of the $15 Million portion of his signing bonus that becomes payable to him on Friday. That might explain the “confusion” on timing?

Regardless, all this talk reminded me about what makes Tom Brady special. 

There is a difference between ‘luck’ and ‘skill’.

Both exist ... yet, luck favors the prepared.

In life, as in sports, hard work often beats talent (especially if talent fails to work hard).

But, when you see this picture from the 2000 NFL Combine, it’s hard to believe that Tom Brady would be a 7-time Superbowl MVP taking the Buccaneers to the Super Bowl in his first year with them. All at the geriatric (for an NFL player) age of 44. 

 

via CBS Sports

When I talked about the Patriots, I focused on the fact that they were a well-oiled machine with a powerful framework of success that allowed individual greatness to shine. 

I think Brady’s continued success is emblematic of that. 

Tom Brady is a paragon of culture, process, and hard work. Much of his approach was molded by his time with Belichick, but of course, he gets enormous personal credit as well. 

He expects the best of himself and brings out the best in his teammates. That’s enabled him to stay a top-level competitor despite not being the strongest, fastest, or most mobile QB (and that was when he was young). 

As well, Tom Brady is remarkably consistent and disciplined; his diet, his routine, his exercise, his film routine, etc. All NFL athletes have impressive routines for the most part, but take a look at Tom Brady’s routine. It’s a routine built for him and his needs - and he’s got it dialed in. He doesn’t need to waste time trying to get big in the gym, so he focuses on 9-key exercises to support his goals. 

The System is the ‘system’; but, within it, you can measure what works, who contributes, and then use those insights to identify the best things to try next.

Win, lose, or draw ... some things speak for themselves. And whether he retires today, next year, or never, we don’t need to wait five years to know he’s a Hall of Fame player with an incredible career. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 30th, 2021

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Elon Musk Called Biden a 'Damp Sock Puppet In Human Form' After the President Highlighted EV Production By GM and Ford But Not Tesla. (Insider)
• Behind Meta's Claim of Building World's Fastest AI Supercomputer. (AnalyticsIndia)
• We Finally Have Jetpacks and No One Cares. (Kottke)
• Birth of the Omicron Family: BA.1, BA.2, BA.3. Each As Different As Alpha is From Delta. (Forbes)
• A Master Economist on Increasing Tipping, Strategic Quitting, Maximizing Charitable Fundraising, Baseball Cards, Theory of Mind, and Valuable Decisions On the Margin. (TimFerriss)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• What the Regime Will Do To Fight Private Digital Currencies. (Mises)
• U.S. SEC Approves New U.S. Exchange With Blockchain Feed, Faster Settlement. (Reuters)
• The Stock Market Slump is Raising Recession Fears But the Actual Data Isn't So 'Ominous,' Analyst Says. (Markets)
• Even Early Enterprise Metaverse Solutions are At Least 3-5 Years Away. (VentureBeat)
• Elon Musk Says Tesla's Humanoid Robot is the Most Important Product It's Working On and Could Eventually Outgrow Its Car Business. (News)

 

 

2022 Predictions

About a month ago, I shared visualcapitalist's 2021 predictions to check how well they fared at the end of the year. 

Honestly, the list was pretty good. It wasn't perfect, but you wouldn't expect it to be. 

In that article, I asked this question: 

What's going to happen as a result of the continuing pandemic, inflation, interest rates, the ongoing supply chain issues, and the growing anxiety and unrest brewing underneath the surface of the new normal? In January, we'll get to see VC's predictions. Before that, what do you expect to happen in 2022? - How'd These 2021 Predictions Fair?

With that, here are visualcapitalist's 2022 predictions: 

via visualcapitalist

Let's be clear - most predictions are either vague and easily guessed (and therefore not helpful) or random conjecture. 

But, there's value in prediction, and there's value in analyzing the data before you. The caveat is that prediction is better when it's applied to human nature and not the machinations of fate, and data can be a distraction if it's not being carefully curated and analyzed to remain relevant to your goals. 

For example, I agree with their general direction for technology. Tech is continuing to grow in influence, and as Web 3.0, the blockchain, and AI mature as platforms for sub-technologies, I think their importance is only going to skyrocket. 

Prediction can also be entertainment. I certainly catch myself looking for patterns and differentiators for everything from whether my meal is going to come to the table correctly, to who's going to win the Super Bowl. 

I know the chances are low, but I still think it's going to be the Cowboys ... 

How Markets Performed in 2021

2020 was a roller coaster of volatility, and while 2021 was as well, most asset classes saw improvements as the world reopened. 

But it wasn't all smooth sailing.  There were significant supply chain struggles and rising inflation ... not to mention the rising cases of COVID. 

Regardless, markets are not the economy, and while there are numerous factors to think about, I've always found markets interesting. 

via visualcapitalist

2021 was a year of rampant speculation, in part because so many systematic traders underperformed.  For example, Renaissance reportedly saw ~15 billion in outflows last year (despite double-digit returns) as their clients likely moved towards more "exciting" opportunities. 

Of course, some of those "exciting" opportunities were cryptocurrency-related.  Moreover, chasing performance like that is often mean-reverting.  Yet, I've seen a massive increase in interest among various business groups in crypto, Web 3.0, and the Blockchain. 

Cryptocurrencies

While crypto generally performed well in 2021, 2022 has seen a drop that erased over $1 trillion in value. 

via visualcapitalist

The reality is that crypto markets matured a lot in 2021.  The thousands of coins are mostly a distraction, but there are many interesting coins from various sectors with interesting technology behind them.  There is increased infrastructure and decreased correlation between coins.  Unfortunately, not enough to keep this drop from affecting the whole space. 

So the question is, is this a "discount" for people to buy into the space, or a sign of future troubles?

It's no secret that I've always been a fan of Blockchain but cautious of cryptocurrencies. 

I think there is a lot of money to be made speculating in cryptocurrencies, but how much of that money being made is attributed to luck vs. skill?

Crypto's are interesting, in part, because they're a digital currency decentralized over a peer-to-peer network.

The more people are willing to accept it as a medium of exchange, the more valuable it becomes (and the more it becomes a stable store of value).

Supposedly, decentralization provides it safety from censorship and government interference - meaning it has value as an international currency and as a currency for black-market transactions.  But, in my opinion, that remains to be seen (and I consider it unlikely for most cryptocurrencies).

However, the worth of a Bitcoin isn't just based on sentiment (on one hand, there are desires to avoid fiat currency vagaries, government interventions, and scrutiny, while having a fair price discovery method, etc.  ... on the other hand, there are also the costs to mine a Bitcoin, transaction fees, etc. and crypto has recently been under fire for its huge environmental impact).

Compared to a reserve currency – whose worth is primarily influenced by trade value and other macroeconomic factors - watching crypto's volatility can be scary. 

That being said, as adoption increases and more businesses enable it, it's possible that it will continue to legitimize.  For the time being, I remain a long-term skeptic because there is too much working against it. 

Many of my initial complaints are centered on coins as currency.  I get that there are already many interesting uses of Blockchain that will also help to bring credibility to coins as a store of value. 

The question for me is, even if cryptocurrency is here to stay long-term (and avoids government control), which coins will it be?  Do they even exist today?

I'm positive there is money to be made related to the Blockchain, NFTs, and cryptocurrencies.  But, at this point, it's a speculators game, and I think the best way to capitalize on this trend sustainably is to sell picks and shovels for the gold rush, instead of trying to stumble upon gold. 

 

 

Betting On The Super Bowl

Trying to get rich quickly? Want to know if the markets going to be bull or bear this year?

Look no further than the "Super Bowl Indicator".

The theory is a Super Bowl win for a team from the AFC foretells a decline in the stock market and a win for the NFC means the stock market will rise in the coming year. 

There is one big caveat ... it counts the Pittsburgh Steelers as NFC because that's where they got their start. 

If you accept that caveat, it has been on the money 33 years out of 41 - an 80% success rate. Sounds good, right?

Come on ... you know better.

Here are some other "fun" stock market fallacies:

• January Indicator
• Aspirin Count Theory
• Hemline Indicator
• Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Indicator
• Men's Underwear Index
• Big Mac Index

Back to Reality

Rationally, we understand that football and the stock market have nothing in common.  And we probably intuitively understand that correlation ≠ causation. Yet, we crave order and look for signs that make markets seem a little bit more predictable.

The problem with randomness is that it can appear meaningful. 

Wall Street is, unfortunately, inundated with theories that attempt to predict the performance of the stock market and the economy. The only difference between this and other theories is that we openly recognize the ridiculousness of this indicator.

More people than you would hope, or guess,  attempt to forecast the market based on gut, ancient wisdom, and prayers.

While hope and prayer are good things ... they aren’t good trading strategies..

As goofy as it sounds, some of these "far-fetched" theories perform better than professional money managers with immense capital, research teams, and decades of experience.

I have a thought experiment I often ask people that come into my office. 

What percentage of active managers beat the S&P 500 any given year?

... Now, what percentage beat the S&P 500 over 15 years?

The answer is about 5% as of 2019 (and that's in a predominantly bull market), and I have to imagine it's only gotten worse in the past two years.  That's significantly worse than chance. That means something they're doing is hurting, not helping. 

via Gaping Void

There's simply too much information out there for us to digest, process, rank, and use appropriately.

Every second you spend looking at a market is a second wasted.

There are people beating the markets — not by using the Super Bowl Indicator ... they're doing it with more algorithms and better technology. 

There will never be less data or slower markets.

Onwards.

A Look At The Future Through Today's News

Inspiration comes from many places. 

I'm grateful for the many groups I'm in, and smart people I know, because they're shortcuts to insights that can be hard to find. 

One can also find inspiration through events, books, and more. 

But, while it's easy to discredit mainstream news sources ... there's plenty of insight to be gained just from keeping track of various news sources. You have to take them with a grain of salt, and find the articles that provide a different perspective too, but it's still a valuable exercise. 

It's part of the reason I share my weekly links and this newsletter. They give me a reason to continue to do research and stay on my toes. 

With that, here are some interesting articles I found recently on advancements in technology. 

• In VR, You Can Become Your Own Psychologist - There's a new VR psychology treatment where you play both patient and psychologist. It has promising results in leading to detachment from habitual ways of thinking about personal problems. This is on top of already interesting VR technology around meditation and psychedelics. 
• Synthetic tissue can repair hearts, muscles, and vocal cords - 3D-printed tissues have been growing in popularity recently. Also making progress is synthetic tissue made of a new biomaterial in the form of an injectable hydrogel. It's durable and porous, both important qualities in creating wound repair that can handle the movement and stress put on hearts and vocal cords. 
• AI Is Discovering Patterns In Pure Mathematics That Have Never Been Seen Before- Mathematicians using computers to discover patterns is not new, but now deep learning models are not only assisting in analysis but formulating conjectures and approaches for formerly unproven ideas. This is a promising indicator for many spaces including chemistry, metallurgy, and material sciences (on top of trading of course). 
• DARPA Funded Researchers Accidentally Create The World's First Warp Bubble - Warp drives have been part of science fiction for a long time - and science for a decent amount of time as well. Warp drives have been theoretically possible since 1994 but were deemed "impossible" due to their use of theoretical materials and massive amounts of energy. Now, there's tangible progress as a real (but very tiny) warp bubble was successfully modeled. This is very fledgling, but it's always exciting to see science fiction become reality. 
• Renewables 2021 by IEA - I remember when renewable energies were not only ineffective but very costly. Now, 95% of the new electricity capacity from 2021-2026 is expected to be from renewables. Now, IEA bases their estimates on historical data, so they over underestimate the adoption curves. I would take that number as conservative. Just remember that capacity is different than coverage. Several countries are making a lot of progress on renewables, and several are making none. 

Have you found any other articles you found interesting?

Always looking for more sources to read. 

The Most Terrifying Infographic of 2022

As we enter the new year, it feels appropriate to focus a little on our mortality. What better time for an existential crisis? 

Below is an infographic that shows events in the life of a typical American. However, you can personalize it to display how long you likely have to live by filling in your education level, sex, country of birth, and when you were born. Seeing where you are ... versus how many dots are left can be jarring.

 

via Coruscant Consulting

Looking at the chart done with my information reminded me how important it is to make the most of the time I have left. 

Time is funny. Sometimes it seems to fly by ... and other times, it almost seems to stand still.

Everyone has the same 24 hours each day. Some use it better than others. 

Sometimes we are conscious of how we use this precious resource. Sometimes it gets away from us.

Here is a video that illustrates how most of us spend our time. It is called The Time You Have (In JellyBeans).

 

zefrank via YouTube

The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.

How many amazing vacations do you have left? How many jaw-dropping moments? How many fantastic meals? How many Super Bowls?

What about time with your parents or older relatives? It's easy to forget to call or to miss an important event because "life happens". But, if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person ... doesn't it become more special?

In my TEDx talk, I mentioned "living like you only have a year left" – and how much more "life" we got out of the last part of my dad's life. 

That is an example, but I want to take it one step further. 

To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, experiences you have that are special and make you feel like your best self. 

• Hitting flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
• Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
• Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say - Wow!
• Making a difference in someone's day or giving back to your community;
• Experiencing peace and relaxation;
• Feeling pure joy.

It's easy to get lost and take for granted these moments when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left, they take a whole new meaning. 

How can you maximize the time you have left? Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.

To start, think about different time frames:

• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?

Make those lists ... it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.

Seriously, try it.  

Let me know how it worked for you – and what you chose.

Onwards!

How'd These 2021 Predictions Fair?

I write about the future of technology often. 

But, sometimes, it's fun to see what others have to say as well.

Every year Visual Capitalist puts together a list of their predictions for the coming year. As we reach the final two weeks of 2021, I figure it's worth taking a look!

Here was their "bingo card" for 2021.

via visualcapitalist

Honestly, that was a pretty good set of predictions.  While some of this list didn't pan out, much of it did. We're seeing a growing exodus from major cities (where people lived to pursue opportunities previously available only in such places), movies are recovering, and hybrid work models are all the rage. 

Could they have predicted how much of an issue COVID would pose throughout the year? Probably not. 

As we near the end of 2021, there's a lot of uncertainty in the air.

Global markets have the jitters - and we don't see the increased volatility changing anytime soon. 

What's going to happen as a result of the continuing pandemic, inflation, interest rates, the ongoing supply chain issues, and the growing anxiety and unrest brewing underneath the surface of the new normal? In January, we'll get to see VC's predictions. Before that, what do you expect to happen in 2022?