Capitalogix

A Few Notes from a Trip to Israel

My wife and I just got back from Israel.  We were there to see my son Zachary play Rugby for Team USA in an International Tournament.

 

 

I feel like I need a vacation after this trip.  There were so many things to do and see.

 

Israel is smaller than the smallest state in America ... Yet, consider its importance in the modern world (for example, by looking at the density of its holy sites, historical attractions, technological innovations, Nobel Prize winners, hostile borders, and military presence).

 

It was fascinating how so many religions consider this the Holy Land.  Here is a photo I took of the Wailing Wall and the Dome of the Rock in the Old City of Jerusalem.

 

 

It’s easy to feel closer to “something” while here.

 

Almost everything we saw in Israel is a testament to determination, ingenuity, and faith!

 

With that said, I started to think about how difficult it was to conceive of many of the things they built (considering how difficult it would be to execute or actually build them in the desert, without electricity, etc.). Many of the sites we visited took decades to build ... but have lasted for thousands of years.  Examples include the Fortress at Masada, the Wailing Wall, and the Port of Caesaria.  In my mind, I compare these moonshots to many of our current big, hairy, audacious goals (like reading and writing our DNA, autonomous artificial intelligence, or space exploration).

 

Technologies might change, but human nature has remained surprisingly consistent throughout time.

 

Onwards!

First Photos From the Webb Telescope

The Hubble Telescope was conceived of in the 1940s, but launched in 1990. It revolutionized our ability to see the complexities of the universe. 

Now, the Webb Telescope is taking it to the next level. 

via NASA

The picture above shows the "Cosmic Cliffs," which is actually the edge of a young Nebula called Carina. 

Below, is a picture of a cluster of galaxies called Stephan's Quintet. 

via NASA

Not only does this help us see far away systems that we've never seen before, but it also provides detail to the things we have seen.

First, bring order to chaos …. Then, wisdom comes from making finer distinctions.  With that in mind, I'm excited to see how this drives the future of science. 

Here's a brief video from Neil Degrasse Tyson on the new telescope. 

 

via NBC News

Are We Alone In The Universe?

Information Is Beautiful has an interactive data visualization to help you decide if we're alone in the Universe. 

As usual, for them, it is well done, fun, and informative. 

For the slightly geeky amongst us, the model lets you adjust the estimate by playing with two equations: the Drake equation and the Seager equation.

The Drake equation estimates how many detectable extraterrestrial civilizations exist in our galaxy and then in the Universe based on factors like habitable planets, change of life, and then intelligent life, and then the amount of time a civilization sends signals into space. 

The Seager equation is a modern take on the equation focusing on bio-signatures of life that we can currently detect - for example, the number of observable stars/planets, what % have life, and then % chance of detectable bio-signature gas. 

via Information Is Beautiful

For both equations, Information Is Beautiful lets you look at various default options – but also to play with your own choices to adjust the outcomes. 

For example, the skeptical default answer for Drake's equation shows 0.0000062 communicating civilizations in our galaxy (which is still 924,000 in the Universe).  The equivalent for Seager's equation shows 0.0009000 planets with detectable life in our "galactic neighborhood" and 135,000,000 planets in our Universe. 

Even with the "lowest possible" selection chosen, Drake's equation still shows 42 communicating civilizations (Douglas Adams, anyone?) in the Universe.

via Information Is Beautiful

One of the most interesting numbers (and potentially significant numbers for me) is the length of time a civilization sends signals into space.  Conservative numbers are 420 years, but optimistic numbers are 10,000+. 

If any aliens are reading this ... don't worry; I won't tell.  But, we will find out if you voted in the last election.

Where Are The Aliens?

This week, there was a U.S. congressional hearing on the existence of UFOs.  While there wasn't any proof of aliens, they did admit to phenomena that they couldn't explain with their current information.

There are many stories (or theories) about how we have encountered aliens before and just kept them secret.  For example, in 2020, a former senior Israeli military official proclaimed that Aliens from a Galactic Federation have contacted us - and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together. 

In contrast, I have found it more realistic and thought-provoking to consider theories about why we haven't seen aliens until now.

For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high probability estimates for their existence. 

Let's simplify the issues and arguments in the Fermi Paradox.  There are billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies).  Each of these stars is similar to our Sun.  Consequently, there must be some probability of some of them having Earth-like planets.  Further, it isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than us.  Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies - interstellar travel isn't absurd.  Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and the length of time we are talking about) ... it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb (who is a particle physicist) tackles that in his book and in this TED Talk.   

 

via TED

In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

1. Habitability and stability of their planet
2. Building blocks of life 
3. Technological advancement
4. Socialness/Communication technologies

But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables, including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, moons' effect on climate, etc. 

Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life - and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks. 

What do you think?

Here are some other links I liked on this topic.  There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

• 75 Reasons We Don't See Aliens 
• Wait But Why: The Fermi Paradox
• A New Theory on Why We Haven't Found Aliens Yet
• A List of Solutions to The Fermi Paradox
• Dissolving the Fermi Paradox, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University

To Infinity and Beyond!

Spring and Rebirth

For Jews, Friday was the first night of Passover, a family-centric holiday that recounts the biblical story of the Exodus of the ancient Israelites from Egypt into the Promised Land. For me, it's a reminder to appreciate what we have – and how we stand on the shoulders of those who came before us. 

For Christians, today is Easter - the holiday honoring Jesus's resurrection. 

The overlap can be seen in DaVinci's Last Supper, a Passover Seder, and Jesus's last meal before his Crucifixion.  

For Jews, a notable part of the ritual dinner is recounting each of the ten plagues inflicted upon Biblical Egypt and saying, "Never again."

Last year, I joked that maybe COVID-19 should be added to the list. 

And, just like the Jews making it through slavery, the plagues, and 40 years wandering through the wilderness and desert before entering the Promised Land ... We are finally approaching the promise of life post-COVID.

Of course, other global events remind us that while the world and our capabilities continue to improve and expand ... human nature stays maddeningly the same.

With the coming of spring, the return to normalcy, and the reminders from the stories of Exodus and Easter - it's a great time to do a mental and physical "spring cleaning". Mine your experiences for the things you want to keep doing (or continue not doing) as things go back to "normal".  

Hope you celebrated with family, food, and a reverence for all the blessings around you. 

Global Happiness Levels in 2022

Happiness is a complex concept comprised of conditions that highlight positive emotions over negative ones – bolstered by the support of comfort, freedom, wealth, and other things people aspire to experience. 

Regardless of how hard it is to describe (let alone quantify) ... humans strive for happiness.

Likewise, it is hard to imagine a well-balanced and objective "Happiness Report" because so much of the data required to compile it seems subjective and requires self-reporting. 

Nonetheless, the World Happiness Report takes an annual look at quantifiable factors (like health, wealth, GDP, and life expectancy) and more intangible factors (like social support, generosity, emotions, and perceptions of local government and businesses).  Click the image below to view the Report.

via visualcapitalist

In their 2021 report, there was a significant focus on the effect of COVID-19 on happiness levels and mental health. Much of that continued into the 2022 report. 

As you might expect, the pandemic caused a significant increase in negative emotions reported. Specifically, there were substantial increases in reports of worry and sadness across the ninety-five countries surveyed.  The decline in mental health was higher in groups prone to disenfranchisement or other particular challenges – e.g., women, young people, and poorer people. 

It is remarkable how resilient and stable the scores have been globally considering the amount of uncertainty, stress, and disruption households experienced this past year.

Ultimately, humans persevered in the face of economic insecurity, anxiety, and challenges to mental and physical health. 

This year, the average score improved slightly compared to 2021 - though worry and stress have continued to rise. 

There has been a decrease in overall happiness compared to pre-pandemic scores.  Yet, the relative balance demonstrated in the face of such adversity may point towards the existence of a hedonic treadmill - or a set-point of happiness.

Regardless of the circumstances, people can focus on what they choose, define what it means to them, and choose their actions.

I'm still surprised by what people can get used to ... and how some people find pockets of joy in even the hardest of times.  Conversely, other people use the same ability to feel profound unhappiness, even when they have seemingly everything. 

It's an oddly beautiful reminder that happiness comes from within.

Another bright spot, worth mentioning, has been the massive global upsurge in benevolence. People are supporting others, communities have stepped up, more money is being donated to charity, and more people are volunteering. 

Onwards!

How Many Humans Have Lived?

Despite news of declining birth rates, the world’s population continues to grow because of advances in science, technology, and medicine.

We're nearing a global population of eight billion people. 

There have never been as many people alive as there are now.  But have you ever wondered how many humans have lived on this planet, in total, over the long arc of history?

 

via visualcapitalist

The number takes a lot of estimation, but you end up with approximately 109 billion people over the course of human existence. 

That means almost 7% of all humans who have ever existed are alive today.  It also means that for every person alive, nearly 14 people are dead.  That number seems small to me as I think about how many generations came before us.

While this might be somewhat interesting, the more important question is what you will do with the time left in your hourglass?  To learn more about what I think about that, here's an article I wrote on the time value of time and here's an article I wrote on the power of purpose and how healthy mindsets extend your life. 

The Most Terrifying Infographic of 2022

As we enter the new year, it feels appropriate to focus a little on our mortality. What better time for an existential crisis? 

Below is an infographic that shows events in the life of a typical American. However, you can personalize it to display how long you likely have to live by filling in your education level, sex, country of birth, and when you were born. Seeing where you are ... versus how many dots are left can be jarring.

 

via Coruscant Consulting

Looking at the chart done with my information reminded me how important it is to make the most of the time I have left. 

Time is funny. Sometimes it seems to fly by ... and other times, it almost seems to stand still.

Everyone has the same 24 hours each day. Some use it better than others. 

Sometimes we are conscious of how we use this precious resource. Sometimes it gets away from us.

Here is a video that illustrates how most of us spend our time. It is called The Time You Have (In JellyBeans).

 

zefrank via YouTube

The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.

How many amazing vacations do you have left? How many jaw-dropping moments? How many fantastic meals? How many Super Bowls?

What about time with your parents or older relatives? It's easy to forget to call or to miss an important event because "life happens". But, if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person ... doesn't it become more special?

In my TEDx talk, I mentioned "living like you only have a year left" – and how much more "life" we got out of the last part of my dad's life. 

That is an example, but I want to take it one step further. 

To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, experiences you have that are special and make you feel like your best self. 

• Hitting flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
• Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
• Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say - Wow!
• Making a difference in someone's day or giving back to your community;
• Experiencing peace and relaxation;
• Feeling pure joy.

It's easy to get lost and take for granted these moments when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left, they take a whole new meaning. 

How can you maximize the time you have left? Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.

To start, think about different time frames:

• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?

Make those lists ... it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.

Seriously, try it.  

Let me know how it worked for you – and what you chose.

Onwards!

How'd These 2021 Predictions Fair?

I write about the future of technology often. 

But, sometimes, it's fun to see what others have to say as well.

Every year Visual Capitalist puts together a list of their predictions for the coming year. As we reach the final two weeks of 2021, I figure it's worth taking a look!

Here was their "bingo card" for 2021.

via visualcapitalist

Honestly, that was a pretty good set of predictions.  While some of this list didn't pan out, much of it did. We're seeing a growing exodus from major cities (where people lived to pursue opportunities previously available only in such places), movies are recovering, and hybrid work models are all the rage. 

Could they have predicted how much of an issue COVID would pose throughout the year? Probably not. 

As we near the end of 2021, there's a lot of uncertainty in the air.

Global markets have the jitters - and we don't see the increased volatility changing anytime soon. 

What's going to happen as a result of the continuing pandemic, inflation, interest rates, the ongoing supply chain issues, and the growing anxiety and unrest brewing underneath the surface of the new normal? In January, we'll get to see VC's predictions. Before that, what do you expect to happen in 2022?

A-To-Z of The Internet Minute in 2021

As I get older, time seems to move faster ... but it's also true that as I get older, more is accomplished every minute. 

Technology is a powerful force function. In fact, the amount of data in the digital universe effectively doubles every two years. 

Every couple of years, I revisit a chart about how much data is generated every minute on the internet.  

In reverse chronological order, here's 2018, 2015, and 2011. 

Here's an excerpt from 2015 for some perspective: 

Compared to 2008 here is what's happened with social networks:

• The number of people online has more than doubled from 1.4 billion to over 3 billion (2021 #: 5.2 billion) 
• Facebook has gone from 80 million users to more than 1.4 billion (2021 #: 2.89 billion
• Twitter had 2 million accounts and now it is 300 million and counting. (2021 #: 206 million ACTIVE users after a big bot deletion)
• The number of smartphones was 250 million in 2008 and today there are more than 2 billion. That is an 800% increase! (2021 #: 6.37 billion)

Today this is what happens every minute on the web.

• 4 million search queries on Google
• Facebook users share 2.46 million pieces of content
• Email users send 204 million messages

Throughout its (pretty short) history, the internet has been arguably the most important battlefield for relevancy and innovation. 

So, what does the internet look like in 2021?

DOMO via visualcapitalist 

Looking at the list, we see new editions like Clubhouse and Strava. Partially due to the quarantine, you're still seeing an increase in digital cash transfers with tools like Venmo, an increase in e-commerce shops like Shopify, and an increase in (you guessed it) collaboration tools like Zoom or Microsoft Teams. 

Just to pick out some of the key figures in the chart this year. 

• Amazon users spend $283,000
• 6M people shop online
• TikTok users watch 167M videos
• and, Zoom hosts 856 minutes of webinars. 

Before 2020, I already thought that big tech had a massive influence on our lives. Yet, somehow this past year has pushed their impact even higher. 

One other thing this chart also helps put into perspective is the rapid rate of adoption. As you look at different year's charts, you can see how quickly apps have become part of the cultural zeitgeist. 

How do you think these numbers will grow or change in 2022?