Capitalogix

Are You Ready For The Holidays?

As we near the holidays, you'd think people would be getting cheerier. Jollier, you might say. 

Instead, the holidays tend to bring out the worst in people. 

Why is it often easier to be nice to a stranger (or a dog) than someone you deal with regularly? Emotional baggage is likely the answer. Things like anger, resentment, pain, fear, uncertainty, and doubt are inhibitors that can affect how we interact with others. Frustratingly, our challenges often stem directly from what we bring to each situation ourselves.

It reminded me of one of the earliest videos I shot almost 10 years ago. It highlights the importance of allowing energy to flow freely, enabling individuals to remain focused and resilient in the face of challenges. It doesn't matter what happens ... what matters is what you choose to focus on, make it mean, and choose to do.

 

Sometimes, things don't seem to go well. Despite the annoying evidence to the contrary, it's probably not them ... Which means it is probably you (or at least what you focus on). 

The antidote to negative situations is simple – focus on your progress and the reasons behind your efforts.

The recipe for success (and happiness this holiday season) isn't eggnog ... it is to choose to let energy flow and to have an unrelenting focus on your bigger future.

Bring on 2025!

Thoughts From a New Beginning

My son Zach got married this weekend. 

Watching how thoughtfully and carefully they planned the wedding to keep it intimate and meaningful was heartwarming.

The wedding was for them, with parents and siblings as the only guests. They did it at the location of their first date, had their favorite desserts, and wore non-traditional outfits. I believe they will have a party in the spring.

A wedding is a significant life event. So, I’m sharing a few of the thoughts it triggered.

Since they were born, I have been struck by how similar and different my two sons have been. My older son, Ben, is very analytical and yet surprisingly heart-centered, while Zach is very emotionally-centered and yet very intelligent. That slight difference in their center of gravity has been impactful. Ben has always been a “less is more” kind of guy, while Zach has always been a “more is more” kind of guy.

Nature is funny ... and I believe that how you do something is how you tend to do almost everything. For example, Ben always had a plan — yet, Zach was different ... until he fell in love with rugby, and everything changed. I saw him approach fitness, health, schedules, time, and almost everything differently. That exposes an interesting truth - You don’t tend to win races you don’t want to win. Something deeper has to inspire the effort. When you find something deeper, the rest becomes easier. Even in his 30s, rugby is still his passion. 

As a parent, a small part of me wished that Zach’s focus on rugby had gone to school or business or something ... But that’s not how I really felt. As a father, I knew that once I saw that he knew how to focus on what he wanted, he could focus on anything he wanted. Because once he knew how to do it for one thing, he could do it for anything.

It was like that for me when I met Jennifer – everything changed. I knew so fast. So, when I saw how everything changed for Zach when he met Sloane, I knew the same thing happened.

Here's how I knew he really loved her. Zach’s favorite food groups are cheese fries, bacon, and extra grease. So, his falling in love with a gluten-free vegan (and not only tolerating it – but defending it) showed me something massively important. For the record, he’s been protective and focused on Sloane ever since. And because of that, I know how this turns out.

I want to say how proud I am of Zachary and how happy I am for both of them as we welcome Sloane to the family.

Her love has brought out the best in Zach, and we can’t wait to see the life they’ll build together.

That reminds me of something I thought about several times during the wedding ... it is that love is both a noun and a verb. It’s a thing (a state, a feeling, or even a target) … but it’s also something that you can choose, commit to, and do. The noun without the verb is frustrating - because you couldn’t move towards it and would have to get lucky to experience it. But the verb without the noun would be exhausting because you’d always be searching without finding or driving toward something that you don’t arrive at. This perspective on love as both a state and an action resonates as a natural truth for me. It is like inhaling and exhaling ... one without the other is futile.

Why I'm Still Excited About The Future of GPTs as a 20+ Year AI CEO

Last week, I explained how to create content by simply talking to your computer using ChatGPT's new voice interface. In that post, I multi-tasked in a whole new way by writing the article by merely talking with ChatGPT while walking around my neighborhood to get some fresh air and "exercise."

In that article, I shared my conversation along with the end result - a quick and dirty article about the applications of AI voice agents. I didn't edit the article the way I usually would, but that was intentional to demonstrate what it could create on its own. My evaluation was that it produced content that met the minimum standard and provided a great starting point for me to enhance.

Next week, I'll redo that process, emphasizing the prompts used to interact with the AI. I also used some additional prompts to refine the writing.

As I find new tools, prompts, and applications, I can't help but share them with the people around me. Technology has always excited me and given me energy.

Meanwhile, as I share these tools and prompts with my son, Zach, it's clear he's not as excited as I am about them. For context, Zach and I work on these articles together. So, when I find a new writing tool that I think will make our lives easier, I'm quick to share it.

This past week, I shared some prompts with him that I thought were profound (because they were simple – but produced useful productive output). Through simple prompts and appropriate context settings, we can now get ChatGPT (or other tools like Gemini, Claude, or Perplexity) to perform functions a small business may not have internally. For example, a company could use AI as a comptroller or product manager. It can also help create reports and summarize meetings better than my assistant or I would.

 

Zach acknowledged the utility of capabilities like these ... but described them as 'pedestrian.' He was unimpressed because, in his eyes, these were capabilities that were already possible early into the public release of ChatGPT.

He does appreciate more specific use cases for generative AI – but focuses more heavily on apps with a singular utility. For example, he likes a writing app called Lex, which works more like a standard Word Processor (but with several nicely done AI assists) ... or the Hemmingway Editor app, which helps make your writing concise and correct (by suggesting fixes for lengthy, complex sentences, and common errors).

Instead of focusing on the new generality & ubiquity - and automating tasks outside his wheelhouse - he gets excited about supplementing his ability or improving his efficiency.

His lack of excitement helped me understand more why I'm excited.

Since the '90s, I've been fascinated by AI. For much of that time, two types of people shared my excitement. The first was Hollywood executives, who created cliché dystopian depictions to perpetuate a false human vs AI dichotomy (think The Terminator, I, Robot, or 2001: A Space Odyssey). The other were other people like me. Entrepreneurs or academics looking to leverage exponential technologies.

The average person had very little practical exposure to AI outside of the hidden-in-plain-sight applications that were often glorified decision logic. Eventually, you got tools like Siri or Alexa that put it into everyone's home.

My son takes for granted that even when ChatGPT grew popular, using it well took expertise. You had to be clever, deliberate, and patient to get results that weren't verbose garbage.

AI is genuinely becoming not just available but accessible.

Three great examples are Letterly, Talktastic, and Rosebud Journal.

Letterly is an application that allows me to dictate whatever I'm thinking. It runs a process behind the scenes to organize and clean up disorganized text. Then it gives me dozens of rewrite options that allow me to choose the tone (Business, Casual, Friendly, Clear and Concise, etc.), the purpose (Email, Social Post, Journal Entry, etc.), and the type of output (Structured, 2X Shorter, Meeting Takeaways, Detailed Summary, Outline, etc.). It sounds much more complicated than it really is. The primary reason that I like it is that it's so simple that I take it for granted. 

Another tool like that is Talktastic. For short burst dictation, TalkTastic is better than speech recognition tools (like ChatGPT, OpenAI Whisper, Google Speech-to-Text, or Apple Dictation). It is a game changer because it interprets what you're saying based on what it sees on your computer screen, regardless of the app or website. That means when you trigger it to run, TalkTastic analyzes a snapshot of your chosen app and automatically understands your conversation's tone, style, and substance while accurately spelling people's names and easily confused words. So you can turn your rough ideas into thoughtful and articulate language everywhere. I use it dozens of times every day to create short messages, emails, and even some of the sentences in an article like this. Currently, Taltastic only works on macOS devices (and is totally free while in beta).

Rosebud is a journalling app reimagined to incorporate AI in many subtle and clever ways. I've been tempted to journal many times throughout my career, but always found reasons to abandon the practice. That's not true anymore. Rosebud's AI journal has fundamentally changed how I look at and use tools like this. Chatting with AI tools is one thing (I wrote about that in a post called Conversing With AI), but Rosebud is a level beyond even that. It has all the benefits of a traditional journal, but it adds intelligent responses, subtle prompts, and reminders to think about certain things. It's interactive and collaborative. It challenges you to re-examine certain beliefs, set goals, or measure success in different ways. Try it!

Each of these tools is a great example of something you quickly take for granted because it's easy to get used to nice things.

Expect a lot more things like that.

Isn't that exciting?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 19th, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Pope Francis and the Vatican Just Created an “AI Bible” Reshaping Faith in the Digital Age. (TheBrighterSide)
• People Think They Already Know Everything They Need to Make Decisions. (ArsTechnica)
• 8 Expert Tips for Getting Started With NotebookLM. (Google)
• Chinese Humanoid Robot is the 'Fastest in the World' Thanks to One Surprising Addition. (UniladTech)
• Copy of US Constitution Found in Filing Cabinet Sells for $9M. So, Somebody Does Still Value the Constitution. (BBC)

 

Trading Links:

• OpenAI's Advantage Over Rival AI Companies Vanishes, Report Finds. (Fortune)
• Nvidia’s Shocking Truth vs. The Dot-Com Bubble. (JoshBelanger)
• The Next Wave of AI Won’t Be Driven by LLMs. Here’s What Investors Should Focus on Instead. (Fortune)
• Amazon Announces Nuclear Power Deals as Tech Giants Scramble for More Clean Energy. (GeekWire)
• ForecastTrader – Futures-Based Prediction Market for the Presidential Election and Other Things. (ForecastTrader)

 

Atoning & Rebuilding

Yesterday was Yom Kippur, which translates to “Day of Atonement” and is one of the High Holy Days in the Jewish religion.

As part of the holiday, participants read a list of sins (available here), apologize for those committed, and ask for forgiveness. Read the list ... even though much has changed in the World... apparently, human nature hasn’t changed much.  

Even if you have managed to stay on the right side of the Ten Commandments and haven’t killed or stolen … you have most likely been frivolous, stubborn, hurtful, dismissive, or judgmental (I know I have …).  

I’ve had a reasonably challenging year. Instead of feeling like a victim or using the struggles as excuses, Yom Kippur is a day to look back honestly, reflect, and choose to be better.

To help mark the day’s importance, participants read a prayer called the Unetaneh Tokef. Below is a brief excerpt that captures the spirit. 

Who will rest and who will wander, who will live in harmony and who will be harried, who will enjoy tranquillity and who will suffer, who will be impoverished and who will be enriched, who will be degraded and who will be exalted.

On one hand, you can read that and pray for Divine intervention (or perhaps favor), or you can recognize that we each have a choice about who we want to be, how we show up, and what we make things mean. Your choices about these things have real power to create the experience and environment you will live in next year.

This time of year, we can also learn from many other cultures. For example, the Japanese art of Kintsugi. In Kintsugi, the Japanese mend broken pottery by gilding the fractures with gold, silver, or platinum. This treats the breaks and damage as an element that adds value and enhances the beauty of an object (preserving a part of its history) - rather than something that diminishes the object. 

This concept is an excellent reminder as we unpack the “trauma” of shootings, culture wars, actual wars, and more. Our steps backward are just as much a part of our journey as our steps forward. As you heal, it is also important to remember to heal the World around you. In the Jewish faith, that concept is called Tikkun Olam. 

One of the themes of Yom Kippur is that you’re only one good deed from tipping the scale towards good for yourself and others. As you recognize and repent for your sins, it’s also important to appreciate the good you did (and do) as well. 

As I look at my year, atone, and look forward, I'm reminded of two definitions I heard recently. 

One is that “intelligence” can be defined as the ability to get or move towards what you want … and the second is that “learning” is the ability to get a better result in the same situation.

I choose to look at going forward as a chance to clear the slate and Be and Do better … personally, professionally, in the business, and in relationships. I know that there’s lots of room for improvement, opportunities for growth, and the ability to simply put the past behind me and focus on a better future.

Initially, I looked at Capitalogix as a technology company that built trading and fund management capabilities. Over time, I realized that the team, our tools, and the things we do backstage are more valuable than the front-stage results that we produce. We can leverage these to amplify intelligence in virtually any industry.

The future is going to be about making better decisions, taking better actions, and continually improving performance. That won’t really change. Almost everything else will. So, the business is really about the things that don’t change.

I think this is probably true in life as well. Many parts of you change … but the part of you that doesn’t is really the core of who you are.

There are Less Than 100 Days Left in 2024.

There are only 80 days left until 2025. Many will spend those days stressing about the upcoming election, grumbling about inflation, and pretending it’s the universe’s fault they didn’t accomplish what they set their mind to ... yet, it’s also enough time to sprint, to make a change, and to end the year on a high note. 

There is plenty of time to make this your best year yet. What can you do? What will you do?

What could you do to make the life of someone around you better? Likewise, how can you let others know you’re thankful for them?

To reference a book by Ben Hardy and Dan Sullivan, transformational change is often easier than incremental change (because you don’t have to drag the past forward).

So, what can you do that would trigger 10X results?   Will you?

I hope you all experience growth in your mental state, your relationships, and your businesses.  

Best wishes for a great day and an even better year!

The Law Of Diminishing Returns

At some point, more of the same stops paying off ... it is called the law of diminishing returns.

 

via Sketchplanations

Nature (and common sense) reminds us that equilibrium is important. For example, when you exercise too much, you get injured; when you drink too much water, you get poisoned; etc. 

This concept applies almost everywhere.

• It's why diversification is so important in portfolio construction theory. 
• Or, why you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket (concentrating your risk).
• And, my favorite, it's also why you shouldn't only eat vegetables.

A related nugget of wisdom from the extreme ... Too much of a good thing is a bad thing! 

And of course ... Be moderate in everything, including moderation.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 6th, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How to Use ChatGPT to Brainstorm Anything. (Geeky-Gadgets)
• Why We Love Moo Deng — The Science Behind Our Obsession With Baby Animals. (Forbes)
• Try Perplexity for Search🔥. (WonderTools)
• These US Cities Hit 110 Degrees in October – Get Used to It. (Vox)
• Israel's Paradox of Defeat – How the Country's Military Success Is Producing Political Failure. (ForeignAffairs)

 

Trading Links:

• Why OpenAI Burns Through Billions. (Axios)
• AI Training Data Dilemma: Legal Experts Argue for 'Fair Use'. (Forbes)
• Amazon's New AI Chatbot Could Change How Employees Work Forever. (GreyJournal)
• America's One-Two Punch of Good Economic News. (Axios)
• Mark Cuban Warns the U.S. Must Win the AI Race ‘Or We Lose Everything’. (Fortune)

 

Imaginary Centenarians: An Ig Nobel Pursuit

The 34th Annual Ig Nobel Prize ceremony took place last Thursday at MIT. Every year since 1991, around the time the recipients of the genuine Novel Prizes are announced,  the Ig Nobel Prize awards the ten achievements that "first make people laugh, and then make them think. They're meant to celebrate the imaginative and encourage more interest in the sciences. 

The first award for Biology was awarded to Robert Klark Graham, for pioneering development of the Repository for Germinal Choice, a sperm bank that accepted donations only from Nobellians and Olympians. While I jokingly tell my kids they have "superior genetic potential," this type of research and belief can have serious consequences. 

In 1996, Physicist Robert Matthews earned a prize for his paper "Tumbling Toast, Murphy's Law and the Fundamental Constants," which sought to explain why toast tends to fall buttered-side down.

  

 

In 2002, another physicist, Arnd Leike, earned the honor after using the law of exponential decay to explain the behavior of beer foam. 

And in 2017, Marc-Antoine Fardin earned the honor for using fluid dynamics to finally answer the eternal question: "Can a cat be both a solid and a liquid?" In case you are squeamish, no blender was involved in that experiment.

While these are funny examples, they're rooted in real science. As is the focus of this article, this year's Ig Nobel Prize for Demography. 

In my circles, it is becoming more common to discuss how to live past 100 — and not just how to live beyond that number ... but to do so with a high quality of life.

A popular concept around that subject is Blue Zones - areas where people seem to live longer and healthier. There's even a Netflix documentary on the subject. Notable places include Sardinia, Italy; Okinawa, Japan; and Ikaria, Greece. 

Saul Justin Newman challenged that belief with his research, which found that extreme age records tend to come from areas with no birth certificates, rampant clerical errors, pension fraud ... and even short life spans. 

While longevity in the zones has primarily been attributed to diet, community, and genetics, Newman found that many of these claims were based on errors - or outright fraud. Instead, these regions are actually characterized by the opposite of what you would expect ... low incomes, low literacy, high crime, and short lifespans. 

To a certain extent, it makes sense. In areas where you're struggling to make ends meet ... why wouldn't you commit pension fraud? In fact, in 2010, the Japanese government realized that over 80% of the people aged over 100 were actually dead. Part of what made this possible was that America bombed the halls of records in that area during the war. 

Here's an interview with Saul Justin Newman on the subject. He's tracked over 80% of the people aged over 110 worldwide. Almost none of them have a birth certificate. Only about 10% have a death certificate. 

What does this mean for human longevity?

While the stories of these 110-year-olds may mostly be fake - as mentioned in my recent article - longevity is on the rise, and there are many modalities to increase your lifespan. 

 

 

The goal isn't just to stay alive longer; it's to live life to its fullest for as long as possible.

There are people living to 100, and there are plenty of people living healthily into their 70s, 80s, and 90s. 

We're taking steps in the right direction. Technology and medicine are both evolving quickly. 

But, like with longevity data, improvements in any space need to be met with a grain of salt. 

If it sounds too good to be true ... it generally is. Not always. But, generally. 

The Cities Of The Future

Studying historical changes in human population trends offers valuable insights into the factors that have propelled or hindered human development throughout time.

From ancient civilizations to modern metropolises, population dynamics have influenced everything from economic prosperity to social structures.

 

A Window Into Our Past Gives Us a Glimpse at Our Future.

By studying this critical aspect of human history, we can gain valuable insights into the past, present, and future of societies.

Population growth is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon with far-reaching implications. It offers a fascinating glimpse into the demographic trends that have shaped our world and continue to influence our trajectory.

Historically, human populations grew steadily but relatively slowly ... until something changed that. 

Scientists estimate that humans have existed for over 130,000 years. However, it took until 1804 for us to reach 1 Billion. We doubled that population by 1927 (123 years later) and then doubled it again only 47 years later (which was 1974). 

Looking back, early population growth was driven by the agricultural revolution. Since 1804, the Industrial Revolution, health and safety advances, along with technology, have significantly improved quality of life, spurring the rapid population growth. Here is a quick overview of some of the key factors.

Shaping the Future

It’s hard to predict some things accurately. So, one goal in data science is to figure out what we can “know” in order to “guess” less.

Population growth is a prime example. One of the easiest ways to predict how many 60-year-olds there will be in 40 years is to look at how many 20-year-olds there are today. Obviously, the number won’t be exact, but it’s a pretty good head start.

This principle of using known data to make educated predictions applies to many aspects of future planning, including urban development and resource allocation. By leveraging current demographic information, we can better prepare for the challenges and opportunities that will likely impact the cities of tomorrow.

• Economic Implications: A growing population can expand the workforce, fueling economic growth. However, it can also strain resources, requiring increased investment in infrastructure, education, and healthcare.
• Social and Environmental Pressures: Demographic shifts, such as aging populations or youth bulges, can profoundly affect social structures, healthcare systems, and the environment.

 

Why It Matters

Population growth is more than just a numerical metric. It is a fundamental lens through which we can analyze:

• Historical Development: By understanding past population trends, we can better appreciate the factors that have shaped human civilizations.
• Future Planning: Governments, businesses, and organizations can use population data to make informed decisions about resource allocation, infrastructure development, and social policies.

 

Have World Population Growth Numbers Peaked?

World population growth rates peaked in the late 1960s and have declined sharply in the past four decades, but we’re still on a positive trend. We’re expected to reach 9 billion people by 2050, but a lot of that growth comes from developing countries – they also almost exclusively come from urban areas. 

via Axios (Click for an Interactive Graph)

Urbanization: Megacities

In the 1800’s, about 10% of the population lived in urban areas. Since 2014, over 50% of the world’s population has lived in urban areas – today it’s approximately 55%. That number is growing.

Ironically, as we grow more digitally connected, our world is shrinking, and our populations are concentrating. 

An interesting consequence of this rapid urbanization and population growth in developing countries has been the increased development of Megacities – defined as cities with populations greater than 10 million. Today, there are 33 megacities – more than triple the number in the 1990s. 

This creates a set of interesting opportunities and challenges. 

For example, how will these cities deal with infrastructure – sanitation, transportation, etc?

 

via visualcapitalist

Today, in most high-income countries, about 80% of the population lives in urban areas - contrasting the primarily rural populations of lower-income countries. 

As a result, we see many of these megacities forming in developing countries. As a side note, we’re also seeing countries like China making substantial investments and alliances in these developing areas. This is likely done to profit from the expected growth and also to shift the future balance of power in their favor. Sometimes, it makes sense to focus on the marathon and not just the sprint.

It’s interesting how the world can become more decentralized - and more globalized - amidst a contraction of where people live.

An Antidote For Anxiety & Scary Times

People seem rattled right now, don’t they?

Wallets have been tight, and fears of a recession have run rampant.

Even though markets and the economy are not the same thing, many voters believe they are. Consequently, in an election year, I suspect the government will push every button and pull every lever to boost the market leading into November.

Speaking of the markets, they have been pretty volatile the last few weeks. They have posted some of their worst days since COVID-19 but some of the best, too.

We find ourselves in a particularly partisan election year, with lots of uncertainty about who is running, what they stand for, and whether they can make a difference – or even do the job.

The situation feels worse because scary geopolitical events (that threaten World War 3) punctuate seemingly endless negative news cycles.

Now, on to the real point ... those things don’t matter and shouldn’t steal your focus. Why? Because that’s the playing field we all have to navigate.

There will be winners and losers. The key distinction lies in whether you choose to focus on opportunities or risk. 

So, I thought this would be an excellent time to revisit how to cope with losses and manage your anxieties in “scary times.” 

The Anxiety Antidote

During scary times, many people suffer from “I should have ...”, or “if I would have ...”, or “if I could have ...” thoughts.

The problem is that thoughts like those create more stress and distraction. 

I’m reminded of a quote.

"When the trough gets smaller ... the pigs get meaner." - Dan Sullivan

 

 

Negative focus highlights loss, difficulties, past events, missing things, and what you don’t want.

Think of them as an unhealthy reflex that wastes energy, confidence, and time.

All We Have To Fear Is Fear Itself  

I often talk about market psychology and human nature. The reason is that markets reflect the collective fear and greed of their participants... people tend to get paralyzed during scary times like these.

But it’s not the economy that makes people feel paralyzed. People feel paralyzed because of their reactions and their beliefs about the economy. Your perception becomes your reality. 

A little examination reveals that most fear is based on a “general” trigger rather than a “specific” trigger. In other words, people are afraid of all the things that could happen and are paralyzed by the sheer scope of possibilities. These things don’t even have to be probabilities to scare them.

You gain a competitive advantage as soon as you recognize that it’s not logical. Why? Because as soon as you distinguish that fear as not necessarily true, you can refocus your insights and energy on moving forward. You can act instead of react. You make better decisions when you come from a place of calm instead of fear... so create that calm. 

Even a tough environment like this presents you with opportunities if you watch for them ... or even better ... if you create them. 

The Scary Times Success Manual

The goal is to move forward and feel better.

Strategic Coach offers ten strategies for transforming negativity and unpredictability into opportunities for growth, progress, and achievement. They call it the “Scary Times Success Manual,” and what follows are some excerpts:

Forget about your difficulties, focus on your progress.

Because of some changes, things may not be as easy as they once were. New difficulties can either defeat you or reveal new strengths. Your body’s muscles always get stronger from working against resistance. The same is true for the “muscles” in your mind, spirit, and character. Treat this period of challenge as a time when you can make your greatest progress as a human being.

Forget about events, focus on your responses.

When things are going well, many people think they are in control of events. That’s why they feel so defeated and depressed when things turn bad. They think they’ve lost some fundamental ability. The most consistently successful people in the world know they can’t control events - but continually work toward greater control over their creative responses to events. Any period when things are uncertain is an excellent time to focus all of your attention and energy on being creatively responsive to all the unpredictable events that lie ahead.

Forget about what’s missing, focus on what’s available.

When things change for the worse, many desirable resources are inevitably missing - including information, knowledge, tools, systems, personnel, and capabilities. These deficiencies can paralyze many people, who believe they can’t make decisions and take action. A strategic response is to take advantage of every resource that is immediately available to achieve as many small results and make as much daily progress as possible. Work with every resource and opportunity, and your confidence will continually grow.

Forget about your complaints, focus on your gratitude.

When times get tough, everyone must make a fundamental decision: complain or be grateful. In an environment where negative sentiment is rampant, the consequences of this decision are much greater. Complaining only attracts negative thoughts and people. Gratitude, on the other hand, creates the opportunity for the best thinking, actions, and results to emerge. Focus on everything you are grateful for, communicate this, and open yourself to the best possible consequences.

 Click here to download the full PDF version.

Final Thoughts

We can pontificate all day long on the short-term causes of the rises and falls of markets, but I don’t think it does much good. I let the algorithms worry about those. It’s the larger trends we have to be personally aware of.

I sound like a broken record, but volatility is the new normal.

• Markets exist to trade, and if there’s no “excitement” on either side, trades don’t happen.
• Trades are getting faster, which means more information has to confuse both the buyer and the seller.
• You’re no longer competing solely against companies and traders like you. It’s like the cantina from Star Wars; you’ve got a bunch of different creatures (and bots) interacting and fighting with each other, trying to figure out how to make their way through the universe.

Pair that with all the fear and uncertainty, and you’ve got a recipe for increased volatility and noise. That means that the dynamic range of a move will be wider and happen in a shorter period of time than ever before. You’ll hear me echo this thought over the next few years as the ranges continue to expand and compress. Cycles that used to play out over weeks now take days or hours. The game is still the same; it just takes a slightly different set of skills to recognize where the risks and opportunities are. 

Today’s paradigm - both in life and trading - is about noise reduction. It’s about figuring out what moves the needle and focusing only on that.

The crucial distinction is between adding data and adding information. Adding more data does not equal adding more information. In fact, blindly adding data increases your chances of misinformation and spurious correlations.

My final comment is that there’s a difference between investing and trading, and while humans can invest, if you’re “personally” still trying to trade - you’re likely playing a losing game. If you don’t know what your edge is, you don’t have one. 

If you’re investing, I’ll advise you to act like a robot. If you removed human fear and greed from your decision-making - what would you do?

Keep calm and carry on.