Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

Sometimes the News cycle is worse than the news itself.

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Google's 'Perfect Human' Project Isn't Evil, It's Business. (TheVerge)
• Human Workers Report Feeling Most Productive When Led By Artificial Intelligence. (PBS)
• How the NSA Built Its Own Secret Google. (First Look)
• Welcome to the New U.S. Digital Service: Geeks wanted, no stodgy suits required. (GeekWire)
• Software Shows What Children Will Look Like In 70 Years, With Unprecedented Accuracy. (Popular Science)

 

Trading Links:

• Wall Street's Revenge of the Nerds Means Fooling All The People All the Time. (Guardian)
• Crazy Prediction. Why You Should Expect More Quantitative Easing. (Joe Fahmy)
• Whopping 35% Have Debt in Collection in America: Where Is It? (GlobalEcon)
• Microsoft Has Lost About $1.7 Billion On Surface - So Far ... (CiteWorld)
• Goldman Sachs - On Crash Risk: The Simple Reason We're Probably Not About to Have Another Huge Crash. (Business Insider)

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

Who put Washington in charge of the ball drop this New Year?

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The Year in Photos. Photos of the Year 2012. (WSJ Graphics)
• The Best Books of 2012. Interesting list with some unusual choices. (BrainPickings)
• The Best City Time-Lapse Videos of 2012. (TheAtlantic)
• Life's Work 2012. Highlights from Interviews of 10 Intriguing People. (HarvardBizReview)
• How to Keep Your Resolutions. 25 apps for a happier, healthier, better 2013. (VentureBeat)

 

Trading Links:

• Why 2013 Will See Faster, Stronger Global Growth. (CNBC)
• How to Play the 4 Likely Potential Economic Scenarios Over the Next 3 Years. (Forbes)
• The Fiscal-Cliff Fix: Winners and losers. (The Week)
• Defying Mao, Rich Chinese Crash the Communist Party. (Wall Street Journal)
• Amateur Investors Are 3.2 Percent Worse Than Chimpanzees at Picking Stocks. Fear, greed, and mistakes are a bitch to deal with (BusinessInsider)

JibJab Lets You Star In Your Own Gangnam Style Video

Gangnam Style has about a billion views, recently surpassing Justin Bieber to become the number one most-viewed YouTube video of all time. 

So, of course, JibJab got in the game. They’ve launched a Gangnam Style video that you can personalize with your face (or a friend’s face). Here's what it looks like.

 

Personalize funny videos and birthday eCards at JibJab!

 

Hope you are having a happy and fun holiday season.

People Are Awesome [Video]

Start the New Year with a Wow! This will give you a different perspective on what's possible.

 

Worthy of full-screen mode viewing.

How committed do you believe these people were to to pursue and master such amazing ventures?

What could you do if you were willing to commit that fully?

Happy Holidays and Best Wishes for 2012

During this holiday season, I hope you are grateful for the things that are great in your life,
that you choose what you can use from the things weren't great …
and that you invest those lessons in your future.

The hardest part of finding a better way is often just remembering that there might be one.

___________________

 

Best wishes to you for a healthy, happy, and prosperous new year.

 - Howard

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Things Aren't Always What They Appear To Be

This series of photographs is interesting to me because it so clearly gives us the wrong impression. Deep down you know that your mind created a story about what it means; and, yet, you know it didn't happen.

Obviously I picked this series of photos to illustrate a point. Just because we perceive something, doesn't mean it's true.

That point is even more true during emotionally trying times, when we're looking for confirmation of our worst fears. In this market environment, it's not hard to find data to scare you.

We don't just make things up, though, we also notice things and infer meaning from them. I suppose there was an evolutionary benefit to our ancestors who were able to infer danger before it ate them. Nowadays, it's probably better if we temper those instincts a little.

Why Do We See Patterns In Random Data?

The human mind is especially good at finding patterns in data. 

Often, I believe that I see a pattern in random data.  OK, I understand that I don't really see patterns in random data; but to me it seems to me like there are patterns in the random data. 

This happens because we don't look at data neutrally.  That means when the human eye scans a chart, not all data points get equal weight.  Instead we tend to focus on outstanding cases, and we tend to form our opinions on the basis of these special cases. 

In other words, it is human nature to pick up the stunning successes (or failures) of the method and to overlook the more common performances.

So, for example, when I am investigating a new pattern, I see many instances where that pattern works.  And that is precisely the reason that we use a computer; because it will find every instance of the pattern and confirm how often it truly works, and whether it provides a reliable edge.

I suspect that the desire to find patterns is the same element of human nature that leads people to become superstitious, read their horoscope, or go to a fortuneteller.  It is also the reason so many authors and speakers sell access to their chart patterns that supposedly work. The successes are much more startling than the failures.  So the successes stand out.

The Last Time I Felt This Bearish:

Here is a picture of my S&P chart analysis from August 2003.

I was painfully bearish, and wrong. Yes there was a giant downtrend, and many of the technical trading chart patterns that I knew indicated that the market was likely to plunge yet again.  But it didn't.

That points out a very interesting aspect of trading; every trade happens because of a disagreement. The buyer thinks prices likely to go up. The seller thinks it's likely go down. If that wasn't true, neither one would take their side of the trade.

The point is that it's important to see each trade from both sides of the fence. In order to remove some bias, learn to visualize the trade from the other perspective. Then you can re-evaluate and decide if you still want to take that trade.

The OOPs Trade:  When a well-known pattern fails, the response is often dynamic. In fact there's a name for this, it's called an "OOPs Trade". This often happens with obvious, high profile, situations like a "Head-and-Shoulders" pattern, the break of long-standing Trend-Line, violation of a clear Price Channel, crossing the 200-Day Moving Average, at big Round Numbers (like Dow 10,000), or even at key Support and Resistance Levels (like these recent lows). The violent reversal happens when the crowd realizes that it was wrong and has to get out of the trade. This is very similar to a short squeeze; and the move is often violent and prolonged.

The markets are oversold here, lots of people know that we just made new lows, and we have been bombarded with bad news recently.  So, I'm not predicting that the market will reverse here. I am just suggesting that it is possible.  OOPs.

The Year in Pictures

Browse through some of the best pictures from 2008.  A picture is worth a thousand words; some that come to mind are beautiful, shocking, and surprising ...

It took me way too long to put this list together.  Why?  Because I started browsing and enjoying myself.  Hope you do too.

Here are some Best Photos-of-the-Year sites worth looking at as we close out 2008.

• Boston Globe's Big Picture Series (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3)
• Stunning Pictures and Photos (Smashing Magazine)
• LATimes Best of Photo 2008 Series.
• A Year in Pictures (MSNBC, Agency France, and DocStoc)
• Pixeteria (Best of 2008 Galleries, People's Choice, Editor's Choice, Weather)
• Reuters has lots of great graphic content (100 Best of 2008 & Different Best of Slideshow)
• National Geographic (Editor's Choice, Best Animal Pics, DCP)

Here are some that are just for fun.

• A collection of "weird" people (Chive)
• A collection of "funny kid" pics (Chive)
• A collection of "perfectly timed" photos (Chive)

Here are some others that are from "artier" sources.

• Flickr's Hivemind
• Some Flickr High Dynamic Range Photos (Set 1 and Set 2)
• Photo.net Picture Finder Filter (Photo.net)
• 10 Picture worth a look. (XciteFun.net)
• Interesting photo hosting site (Pixdaus)

In 2008, many traders felt "over their heads" ...

It was scary for much of the year ...

Still, here is what I'll leave you with ... Winter always comes before Spring.

Best wishes for a Happy New Year.

Photology - A New Way To Find What You're Looking For

Overwhelmed by too many photos?  Too busy to sort and tag them?  Try this.

Photology helps you navigate the flood of digital photos on your computer by finding photos using simple and intuitive filters like faces, sky, color, location, and time of day ... automatically.

Can't find the photo of you in that pink silk jacket from the 4th of July party on the beach a few years ago? No problem, even with seemingly endless folders of random photos.  You know the expression, "finding a needle in a haystack," right? Thanks to Photology, haystacks of photos will get a lot smaller, making it much easier to find the "needle" you're looking for – even if that needle is an a pink jacket.

How do you do it?  Well, like this.

First stop questioning why you own a pink silk jacket.  Then start remembering what you can.  It was a few years ago (probably 2006).  The photo was of faces.  It was outside.  You were wearing pink.  And It was sunset. 

You can also combine, mix, and match any or all of these tidbits from your memory to find your photo.  It is fast, fun, and very easy to use.

Try it yourself with this online demo.  After the demo launches, try the filter options on the left.

I paid this software - and it was worth it.  Now it is free; an even better value proposition.  I'm still going to use Photoshop Elements for the heavier lifting ... Still, Photology has its place in the toolbox.

So click here to download the software.

Happy Holiday Season Wishes

I put together a short photo album and holiday card.  I hope you'll click this to watch.

Make a Smilebox photobook

Best wishes for a happy holiday season and a terrific 2009.