Capitalogix

Are You Smart?

I know a lot of smart people.

I also know a lot of people that think they're smarter than they are (even the smart ones ... or, perhaps, especially the smart ones). 

It's common.  So common, in fact, that there's a name for it.  The Dunning-Kruger Effect.

Have you ever met someone who's so confident about what they think that they believe they know more than an expert in a field? That's the Dunning-Kruger effect. It's defined as a cognitive bias where a lack of self-awareness prevents someone from accurately assessing their own skills. 

Here's a graph that shows the general path a person takes on their journey towards mastery of a subject. 

via NC Soy

The funny thing about the above image... it's actually not a literal part of the paper on the Dunning-Kruger Effect. But it's now so commonplace that people report that chart as fact. A fitting example of the effect. 

David Fitzsimmons via Cagle Cartoons

In our daily lives, it can often be funny or frustrating to see the "victims" of this effect, but I'd warn you that we all have times where we're prone to this; and it's a sign of ignorance, not stupidity. 

This is a problem with all groups and all people. Even if you already know about the cognitive bias resulting from the Dunning-Kruger Effect, you're not immune. 

It should be a reminder to reflect inward - not cast aspersions outward. 

Two different ways that people get it wrong, first is to think about other people and it’s not about me. The second is thinking that incompetent people are the most confident people in the room, that’s not necessarily true.

Usually, that shows up in our data, but they are usually less confident than the really competent people but not that much... - David Dunning

To close out, even this article on the Dunning-Kruger presents a simplification of its findings. The U-shape in the graph isn't seen in the paper, the connection that lack of ability precludes meta-cognitive ability on a task is intuitive, but not the only potential takeaway from the paper. 

Regardless, I think it's clear we are all victims of an amalgam of different cognitive biases. 

We judge ourselves situationally, and assume "the best".  Meanwhile, we often assume "the worst" of others. 

We can do better ... it starts with awareness.

Progress starts by telling the truth.

Before You Vote: Getting Educated

Early voting has started, but, if all goes to plan, we'll know who will be the President on November 3rd. 

The fears of fake news and the growing echo chambers around candidates (and policies) mean it can be tough to truly make an educated decision. The reality is, most of our news sources are tinted by the lens of their ideology - which is okay. That means they're appealing to their targeted audience. 

That being said, it may also be worth looking at the same news story from a comparative news source from the other spectrum - or even better, a primary source when it comes to science/economics. 

Here's a chart that shows where news sources rank. You can click the image to go to an interactive version with more details. And, if you're curious about their methods, click here. 

via Ad Fontes Media

On top of reading various news sources, there are a couple of other tools I like: 

• FiveThirtyEight - Uses graphics to tell visual stories on valid statistics. Named after the number of electoral votes. Also has a visual presidential forecast. 
• RealClearPolitics - Aggregates news from various sources, as well as writing their own opinion pieces. Also has a good visual on the current state of the presidential, senate, and house races. 
• Brittanica ProCon - Tracks the stated positions of politicians on various issues. Can be sorted by candidate, and by issue. It also has a quiz you can take to assess which candidate you actually resonate with. 
• Politifact & FactCheck - Both sites fact check presidential statements, party statements, and more. We know politicians often lie by omission, or focus only on the specific stats that are relevant to their point. Fact-checking helps you gain a more holistic picture. 

 

As a last warning on believing anything you hear, most polls I've seen put Biden in the lead ... but if you remember 2016, you know the polls are working on incomplete information. Clinton had a lead on most polls and lost to President Trump. 

We live in interesting times!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 18th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• The Only Four Books Bill Gates Has Rated Five Stars. (Medium)
• Meet the 2020 Nobel Laureates. (Flipboard)
• How Crowd Forecasting Can Predict the Future. (Axios)
• Nvidia Will Build the 'World's Fastest AI Supercomputer'. (TechRadar)
• Record Avalanche of Early Votes Transforms the 2020 Election. (APNews)

 

 

Trading Links:

• Six NFL Teams Return Positive COVID-19 Tests in 24 Hours, and Why It's Important. (NESN)
• Fed Officials Call for Tougher Regulation to Prevent Asset Bubbles. (Reuters)
• As US Election Nears, Hedge Funds Gauge Far-reaching Market Impact of Trump-Biden Battle. (HedgeWeek)
• Beware Stock Market Divergence and Double Top Patterns!. (SeeItMarket)
• Young and Dumb' Traders Have Created a Total Nightmare' in the Stock Market, Fund Manager Warns. (MarketWatch)

 

The Day of Atonement

A few weeks ago was Rosh Hashanah – The Jewish New Year, and this evening starts Yom Kippur – the Day of Atonement.  The practice around these holidays is a good reminder to take account of where you are and appreciate the blessings around you. It was a reminder to me to sprint towards the end of 2020 with the energy of a new year. 

Yom Kippur is a lot like a Catholic confession, but it happens once a year. The holiday is a mix of contemplation, mindfulness, and contrition.  Ultimately, we apologize for the sins we've committed against ourselves, our communities, our friends, and our faith.  Also important is the promise to do better next year.  On top of repenting, we fast (no food or water) for a full day to make sure we're mindful.  

via Dry Bones

It's interesting how little human nature has changed in the past several thousand years. The list of sins is just as relevant today as I imagine it was back then. Even if you have managed to stay on the right side of the Ten Commandments, and haven’t killed or stolen … you have most likely been frivolous, stubborn, hurtful, dismissive, or judgmental (I know I have …).  

To help drive the importance of the day, we ceremoniously read a poem called the Unetaneh Tokef. Below is a brief excerpt because it's a powerful read, regardless of faith. 

Who will rest and who will wander, who will live in harmony and who will be harried, who will enjoy tranquillity and who will suffer, who will be impoverished and who will be enriched, who will be degraded and who will be exalted.

On one hand, you can read that and pray for Divine intervention (or perhaps favor) or you can recognize that we each have a choice about who we want to be, how we show up, and what we make things mean.  Your choices about these things have very real power to create the experience and environment you will live in during the next year.

This year, my local Synagogues are closed due to the pandemic. As a result, I happen to be in Cabo for today. As I look at a photo I took, I find myself thinking about that lesson - that we have a choice about who we want to be, how we show up, and what we make things mean.

 

The picture is just a picture.  The story you tell about it (or what it means to you) is actually more important than the image itself.

One could lament that the sun is going down just as easily as they could celebrate the beautiful sunset.  Someone could complain about the rough desert terrain or decide to notice its natural beauty.  You could complain about the heat and humidity or jump in the ocean to cool off.  You could struggle with how difficult it is to get there or appreciate how nice it is to be somewhere so remote and secluded.  In every case, the choice is yours ... this is “free will”.

 

In addition, some might say that it is wrong that I was in Cabo at the start of Yom Kippur. It reminds me of a story.  

 

Someone asks their religious leader if they can smoke during prayer time ... consequently, they are told “of course not” and reminded to take prayer time seriously and to treat it as a sacred moment.  Meanwhile , a different person says “while walking along the beach, and smoking, they feel close to God and start to pray ... they ask their religious leader if this is OK ... with that framing, the answer is “of course” because it is always a good time to feel close to the Divine and to pray.

 

Progress starts by telling the truth.  And Yom Kippur is a time to honest reflection. Equally important to recognizing and repenting for your sins, is recognizing and appreciating that you did good and well ... for yourself, your friends and family, or your community. 

All-in-all, it's a nice framework that highlights how you have grown; and, it also shows where you have room to grow. 

100 Days Left

We're currently bringing in the Jewish New Year, but we also have just under 100 days before the normal New Year. Many will spend those 100 days stressing about the upcoming elections, grumbling about how 2020 sucked and pretending it's the universe's fault they didn't accomplish what they set their mind to ... but, 100 days is a great amount of time to sprint, to make a change, to end the year on a high note. 

That's plenty of time to make this your best year yet. What can you do? What will you do?

I hope you all experience growth in your mental state, your relationships, and your businesses.  Best wishes for a great day, and an even better year!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - September 27th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• AI Should Change What You Do, Not Just How You Do It. (HBR)
• Twitter CEO Explains How Bitcoin, Blockchain Will Revamp Its Business. (Decrypt)
• The 12 Best Fitness Apps Right Now. (GearPatrol)
• Scientists are Preparing to Implant the World's First Human Bionic Eye that Will Allow the Blind to See. (AOL)
• Freezing Bodies for Reanimation' in China and Why the Country's Cryonics Tech Has the Potential to Leapfrog the West. (South China Morning Post)

 

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• The 12 Richest Tech Billionaires in the World Ranked. (South China Morning Post)
• Wall Street is about to Start Trading Water for the First Time. (EuroNews)
• Why Investors Want 50% of Stocks above 200-Day Moving Average. (SeeItMarket)
• A Complete Mess: Traders Fear Volatility Long after Election Day. (Bloomberg)
• Wall Street's Campaign Donations to Biden are Five Times Larger Than Those Going to Trump. (CNN)

 

 

AI & Intellectual Property With Rich Goldstein

It has been a crazy ride.

I studied psychology and philosophy at Duke in the early '80s.  Then I got both an MBA and a law degree at Northwestern University in Chicago. 

My first job out of school was doing corporate and securities work at a law firm in Dallas.  By the early '90s, I knew that I was an entrepreneur. 

Regardless, the path seemed random as I was going down it ... but looking back, it all seems to make some form of sense. 

I recently did a podcast with a patent lawyer friend, Rich Goldstein. We talk about that, what it's like working with my son, the difference between practicing law and creating AI, innovation, and the role of Intellectual Property and its protection. 

I think it's a good listen. Check it out. 

 

The Growth of Home Fitness (and Fitness Tracking)

Home fitness isn't a new trend, but we've come a long way from the Aerobics videos of my youth ...

The technology of home workouts has also improved a lot, even before COVID-19 put it into overdrive. 

From YouTube channels with any type of workout you could look for, to simple machines for any type of workout you're looking for. 

I've shared articles before about some of my favorite tools

• Carol – An AI Fitness bike specializing in High-Intensity Interval Training
• Power Plate – Whole Body Vibration to help with stretching and bodyweight exercises
• x3 Bar – Resistance Bands to replace weightlifting equipment
• Tonal – A smart home gym

So, how has the quarantine affected the industry?

via VisualCapitalist

Worldwide, health & fitness app downloads have grown by 46%. With a mass majority of that being in India. On top of downloads, daily active users have also increased by 24% worldwide. 

Is Home Fitness Here to Stay?

Health & fitness apps have been a big part of my arsenal, far before social distancing was a thing, and they'll continue to be an important part of my future fitness plans. 

Many people prefer the gym/class environment for workouts, so home workouts will never represent a major proportion of the market, but it's non-trivial and continues to grow. 

More likely to continue to grow in use are the tracking and mindfulness apps. 

I like several guided meditation apps.

• Calm
• Headspace
• Pzizz

In addition, I like these too.

• Focus@Will (background music for different moods)
• Brain.FM (AI created music to enhance focus, relaxation, meditation, naps & sleep)
• Meditation Music (5-minute songs, inhale at the bell, exhale at the next bell ... repeat)
• Zen Wellness (courses about meditation, Qi Gong, etc.)
• Muse (brain sensing headband and app to help you know whether you are relaxing)

I also recommend:

• Hapbee – A device that lets you choose how to feel
• Apollo Neuro – Wearable wellness and stress relief
• 40 Years of Zen – This is a 5-day program that leverages neurofeedback technology and guidance to help you unlock and expand your potential.

For fitness tracking, I use: 

• Oura Ring (personal health tracker that specializes in detailed sleep tracking & Heart Rate Variability measurement)
• Whoop (similar fitness tracker but targeted towards athletes & recovery)
• Apple Watch

 

Let me know if there is something that I should add to the list.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - September 12th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Facebook Robots Shut down after They Talk to Each Other in Language Only They Understand. (Independent)
• Finding Beauty in the Imperfection. (Entrepreneur)
• Colors Evoke Similar Feelings around the World. (NeuroScienceNews)
• Alicia Keys: NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert. (YouTube)
• How Conspiracy Theories are Shaping the 2020 Election and Shaking the Foundation of American Democracy. (Time)

 

Trading Links:

• Trillions What is a Trillion Dollars?(InformationIsBeautiful)
• NYSE Signals It Will Exit New Jersey If State Taxes Stock Trades. (Wall Street Journal)
• There are Now 17,000 Bitcoin Millionaires. (Decrypt)
• Are You an Investor or a Gambler? the Stock Market Knows. (Wall Street Journal)
• JPMorgan Creates New Team to Trade Shares of Pre-IPO Giants Including SpaceX, Robinhood, and Airbnb. (CNBC)

Innovator Mindsets

To some, new technology is a good thing.  To others, less is more.

Most people simply "tolerate" technology transitions, some people drive them, and others crave them and use them as a catalyst for growth or strategic advantage.

In the image, above, the blue line represents consumer adoption (taken from Geoffrey Moore's "Crossing the Chasm", while the yellow line represents market share. 

As you can see, only 2.5% of the population drive innovation (or adopt it early enough to help drive the Alpha & Beta versions of emerging technologies). 13.5% make up the Early adopters, who help get it ready for the mainstream.  Then the early and late majorities are the groups that ultimately consume (or use) the mature product. Meanwhile, Laggards are often forced kicking and screaming into “new” technologies as the early adopters are well on their way to subsequent iterations. 

Even if you are not an innovator, here are a few Innovator Mindsets that I find useful. 

1. You Believe There’s A Better Way
   • Wherever you are, you know that there is a best next step and you are eager to find it and take it.
   • You recognize that the opportunity for more (or better) often lies just beyond the constraints or problems of the current way.
   • The bigger future fuels your efforts. When initial excitement fades, understanding what the bigger future can bring helps you power through.
2. You Are Comfortable Being Uncomfortable
   • You understand that Pioneers sometimes take arrows in the back.
   • When creating a new reality, you expect some resistance as a result of the law of averages. Escaping the status quo takes a lot of momentum, but it’s worth it. 
   • You recognize when victory is near.  In a quirk of human nature, too many people quit just before they would have won. Don’t make that mistake.
3. You Know Where You're Going, Even If You Are Not Sure How You're Going To Get There
   • Your goal should be your North Star. A clear direction is important to ensure that activity leads to progress.
   • Measure progress and momentum rather than the distance from your goal.
   • It is easier to course-correct while in motion.
   • If you’re too committed to a path that isn’t leading in the right direction, you might find what Blockbuster, RadioShack, and Kodak found.
4. You Are Married To Questions (Not Necessarily Answers)
   • Everything works until it doesn’t; and nothing works forever.
   • It’s easy to find an answer and think it’s the right one, but there’s always a best next step or a better way.
   • Figure out what you want and how to get it. This is much more empowering than focusing on what you don’t want or why you can’t get it.
   • Ask questions that focus on opportunities or possibilities rather than challenges or what you want to avoid.
   • Energy flows where focus goes.
   • Commit to finding a way!

I plan on sharing more Innovator Mindsets.  Let me know what you think.

Turning Thoughts Into Things

Well done is better than well said - Benjamin Franklin

Turning thoughts into things is an important skill set to understand.

Visionaries tend to spend a lot of their time exploring the future. In and of itself, this is neither good nor bad.

If you generate a lot of ideas (but don't properly cultivate and structure them) those ideas can easily become a distraction to you and your team. 

When properly managed and pursued methodically and purposefully - those same ideas become the catalyst for massive progress. 

There are three main ways, I believe you can make thoughts into things:

• Focus Your Energy - People often focus more on what they don't want, rather than on what they do want. By directing your energy and focus toward opportunities and possibilities, it becomes a lot more likely that you will recognize and take advantage of opportunities and possibilities when they appear or occur. 
• Imagine Your Future - One of my favorite quotes is " the best way to predict the future is to create it." Abraham Lincoln originally said it, but I've thought or said it enough it feels like mine to me.  By deeply imagining the future you want to call into existence, and thinking about it with that end in mind, it becomes easier to imagine the intermediary goals or milestones needed to reach your desired goals.  The basic outline brings order to the chaos ... and the strategies and tactics needed come from the finer distinctions you make thinking about each part (or what is needed to reach the next milestone).
• Make It Tangible - Name it!  Naming something is powerful. Whether it's a product in your business, a concept, or a goal. Making it tangible solidifies it in your mind, and in the mind of others.  Think about what happens if you reach it (and what would happen if you fail).  Come up with the criteria that provides evidence of success.  What would it look like?  How would it perform?  What does it make possible? What would it prevent? How would it impact key measures of efficiency, effectiveness, or certainty?  What can you do about it now?

Ultimately, each of these ideas is entirely dependent on the actions you're willing to take. And how decisive you can be. 

What aren't you doing because you're overthinking it? Are there opportunities you are missing simply because you aren't looking for them?

Onwards!