Capitalogix

Are You As Smart As You Think You Are?

VisualCapitalist just shared an infographic showing the Average IQ by state. It caught my eye and my interest.  Here it is.

 

via VisualCapitalist.

When I first examined the chart, I focused on the state-by-state differences. Honestly, I was taken aback that some states scored higher than others. And by that, I mean it wasn't necessarily the states I would've predicted. But then I took a closer look at the scale and realized these differences are probably insignificant. The results essentially show that, on average, states' intelligence levels are... well, average.

I know a lot of smart people.

I also know many people who think they're smarter than they are (even the smart ones ... or, perhaps, especially the smart ones). 

It's common. It's so common that there's a name for it—the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

Have you ever met someone who's so confident about what they think that they believe they know more than an expert in a field? That's the Dunning-Kruger effect. It's defined as a cognitive bias where a lack of self-awareness prevents someone from accurately assessing their skills. 

Here's a graph that shows the general path a person takes on their journey towards mastery of a subject. 

via NC Soy

The funny thing about the above image... it's not actually a part of the paper on the Dunning-Kruger Effect. But it's now so commonplace that people report that chart as fact—a fitting example of the effect. 

David Fitzsimmons via Cagle Cartoons

Recognizing the "victims" of this effect in our daily lives can often be funny or frustrating. But we're all prone to this; it's a sign of ignorance, not stupidity. 

This is a problem with all groups and all people. You're not immune to it, even if you already know about the cognitive bias resulting from the Dunning-Kruger Effect. 

It should be a reminder to reflect inward - not cast aspersions outward. 

Two different ways that people get it wrong, first is to think about other people and it’s not about me. The second is thinking that incompetent people are the most confident people in the room, that’s not necessarily true.

Usually, that shows up in our data, but they are usually less confident than the really competent people but not that much... - David Dunning

To close out, even this article on the Dunning-Kruger presents a simplification of its findings. The U-shape in the graph isn't seen in the paper, the connection that lack of ability precludes meta-cognitive ability on a task is intuitive, but not the only potential takeaway from the paper. 

Regardless, I think it's clear we are all victims of an amalgam of different cognitive biases. 

We judge ourselves situationally and assume "the best". Meanwhile, we often assume "the worst" of others. 

We can do better ... it starts with awareness.

Progress starts by telling the truth.

Remembering The 'Crazy Ones'

On September 28th, 1997 (almost exactly 17 years ago today), Apple released perhaps one of the most recognizable commercials of all time. I remember being mesmerized the first time I saw Apple Computer's iconic "Crazy Ones" video as part of their Think Different campaign.

Steve Jobs originally recorded a version of "The Crazy Ones" himself, but chose to release the Richard Dreyfuss narrated version. 

 

via Youtube

Here is the text version of the script.

Here's to the crazy ones.
The misfits.
The rebels.
The troublemakers.
The round pegs in the square holes.

The ones who see things differently.

They're not fond of rules.
And they have no respect for the status quo.

You can quote them, disagree with them,
glorify or vilify them.
About the only thing you can't do is ignore them.

Because they change things.

They push the human race forward.

While some may see them as the crazy ones,
we see genius.

Because the people who are crazy enough to think
they can change the world, are the ones who do.

    –     © 1997 Apple Computer, Inc.

Click here for extra material about the video and campaign. 

I think it has held up pretty well, and I had this piece of art commissioned for my office. 

There's a lot to be said for carving your own path, pushing past perceived limits, and accomplishing something hard to ignore. 

Imaginary Centenarians: An Ig Nobel Pursuit

The 34th Annual Ig Nobel Prize ceremony took place last Thursday at MIT. Every year since 1991, around the time the recipients of the genuine Novel Prizes are announced,  the Ig Nobel Prize awards the ten achievements that "first make people laugh, and then make them think. They're meant to celebrate the imaginative and encourage more interest in the sciences. 

The first award for Biology was awarded to Robert Klark Graham, for pioneering development of the Repository for Germinal Choice, a sperm bank that accepted donations only from Nobellians and Olympians. While I jokingly tell my kids they have "superior genetic potential," this type of research and belief can have serious consequences. 

In 1996, Physicist Robert Matthews earned a prize for his paper "Tumbling Toast, Murphy's Law and the Fundamental Constants," which sought to explain why toast tends to fall buttered-side down.

  

 

In 2002, another physicist, Arnd Leike, earned the honor after using the law of exponential decay to explain the behavior of beer foam. 

And in 2017, Marc-Antoine Fardin earned the honor for using fluid dynamics to finally answer the eternal question: "Can a cat be both a solid and a liquid?" In case you are squeamish, no blender was involved in that experiment.

While these are funny examples, they're rooted in real science. As is the focus of this article, this year's Ig Nobel Prize for Demography. 

In my circles, it is becoming more common to discuss how to live past 100 — and not just how to live beyond that number ... but to do so with a high quality of life.

A popular concept around that subject is Blue Zones - areas where people seem to live longer and healthier. There's even a Netflix documentary on the subject. Notable places include Sardinia, Italy; Okinawa, Japan; and Ikaria, Greece. 

Saul Justin Newman challenged that belief with his research, which found that extreme age records tend to come from areas with no birth certificates, rampant clerical errors, pension fraud ... and even short life spans. 

While longevity in the zones has primarily been attributed to diet, community, and genetics, Newman found that many of these claims were based on errors - or outright fraud. Instead, these regions are actually characterized by the opposite of what you would expect ... low incomes, low literacy, high crime, and short lifespans. 

To a certain extent, it makes sense. In areas where you're struggling to make ends meet ... why wouldn't you commit pension fraud? In fact, in 2010, the Japanese government realized that over 80% of the people aged over 100 were actually dead. Part of what made this possible was that America bombed the halls of records in that area during the war. 

Here's an interview with Saul Justin Newman on the subject. He's tracked over 80% of the people aged over 110 worldwide. Almost none of them have a birth certificate. Only about 10% have a death certificate. 

What does this mean for human longevity?

While the stories of these 110-year-olds may mostly be fake - as mentioned in my recent article - longevity is on the rise, and there are many modalities to increase your lifespan. 

 

 

The goal isn't just to stay alive longer; it's to live life to its fullest for as long as possible.

There are people living to 100, and there are plenty of people living healthily into their 70s, 80s, and 90s. 

We're taking steps in the right direction. Technology and medicine are both evolving quickly. 

But, like with longevity data, improvements in any space need to be met with a grain of salt. 

If it sounds too good to be true ... it generally is. Not always. But, generally. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - September 22nd, 2024

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Ex-Pentagon Official Discusses Government's Hunt for UFOs: 'I Have to Be Careful What I Say'. (People)
• The Russian Bot Army that Conquered Online Poker. (LongReads)
• The Mr. Beast Memo is a Guide to the Gen Z Workforce. (Kyla)
• The 7 ‘House Rules’ of Marriage—By a Psychologist. (Forbes)
• Scientists May Soon Be Able to Translate the Languages Plants Use to Communicate. (BGR)

 

Trading Links:

• How Intel Fell From Global Chip Champion to Takeover Target. (Wall Street Journal)
• The Top 100 Gen AI Consumer Apps. (A16Z)
• Breaking Down OnlyFans’ Stunning Economics. (MatthewBall)
• How the Super-Rich Signal Their Wealth to Each Other. (WSJ)
• Peter Thiel Predicts the 2024 Election Won't Be Close: 'One Side is Simply Going to Collapse'. (Insider)

 

Remembering Ikigai In Stressful Times

Over the past century, life expectancies have soared while birth rates have declined. This unusual combination of population dynamics creates significant demographic and socioeconomic challenges for societies worldwide.

To put things in perspective, adult diapers now outsell baby diapers in Japan. Think about how that likely reshaped Japan's workforce and consumer markets.

Getting old is tough, and it gets tougher the older you get.   As a result, finding your 'reasons for being' and joy in life becomes even more important ... it may also be the secret to living longer and healthier.

Many people (all over the world) struggle to get up in the morning. 

There's a Japanese concept called Ikigai that may help.

Ikigai centers around finding purpose as you grow older. Paradoxically, it makes sense to start the process as early as possible. 

 

via InformationIsBeautiful

Finding your "reason to be" and living with purpose is a key to making the most of your time.

The graphic highlights something interesting (yet almost counter-intuitive) … When two areas intersect, it creates something positive (e.g., a passion or a mission).   However, where three areas intersect, it creates a pain point (for example, it could be what you're good at, you love doing it, the world needs it … but it doesn't make you any money – so now you're struggling).

It's worth examining and thinking about for a bit.

On a related note, here is a TEDx talk about the nine common diet and lifestyle habits that help people live past 100 ... whether or not they take you past 100, they're probably a good place to start. 

 

 

TED-ED via YouTube

And here is a link to Dan Sullivan's e-book, My Plan for Living to 156. That may sound outrageous, but it's worth reading because Dan shares surprisingly valuable insights in this book. It doesn't matter whether you actually live to be 156; what matters is living as if it were true. Someone who believes they're approaching the end often looks for excuses or an off-ramp rather than seeking purpose, meaning, and a Bigger Future. By shifting your perspective, you can create a more purposeful and fulfilling life, regardless of your actual lifespan.

Live long and prosper!

The Secret To Competing Against Tech Giants

The last time I drove in New York City traffic, I complained that "I didn’t understand why people came here" because it was too crowded.

That reminds me of one of Yogi Berra’s famous quotes. “Nobody goes there anymore because it’s too crowded.”

He said that about a famous restaurant where he used to work.

The same is true in business. Opportunity draws a crowd ... but the best opportunities are often in areas of less competition.

For entrepreneurs, oversaturation can turn products into commodities, reducing profit potential. Conversely, many shy away when a challenge seems insurmountable, creating unexpected opportunities for those willing to take the risk.

As an entrepreneur, I’m drawn to projects others might dismiss as science fiction. These are the challenges that often lead to the most groundbreaking and rewarding outcomes.

Moonshot Projects

Moonshot projects offer a unique advantage. While they may seem daunting, their audacious nature often means less competition and greater potential for transformative impact and extraordinary profits.

A moonshot project is a highly ambitious, transformative endeavor that seeks to solve a significant problem or create a revolutionary innovation. These projects are characterized by:

• Audacious Goals: They aim for breakthroughs that seem nearly impossible to achieve.
• Disruptive Impact: They strive to create solutions that are vastly superior to existing offerings, often by introducing entirely new paradigms.
• High-Risk, High-Reward: These projects embrace the potential for failure in pursuit of groundbreaking results.
• Long-Term Focus: They prioritize long-term impact over short-term gains.
• Technological Advancements: They leverage cutting-edge or even nascent technologies.
• Paradigm Shifts: They challenge conventional wisdom and industry norms.

Moonshot projects are inherently challenging. They demand significant resources, interdisciplinary collaboration, and a willingness to venture into the unknown. This perceived difficulty often deters potential competitors, creating a unique opportunity for those willing to take the risk.

When successful, they push the boundaries of what is possible and redefine the landscape of their respective fields.

In part, that is why a 10X mindset is particularly well-suited for Moonshot projects. By aiming for a tenfold improvement over existing solutions, you’re essentially operating in a space with little to no competition or opposition. This allows you to redefine the rules of the game and establish a sustainable competitive advantage.

Our strategy of creating a unique, sustainable competitive advantage aligns perfectly with the Moonshot approach. By choosing to play a different game (with an asymmetric edge), we’re not just competing; we’re fundamentally changing the playing field.

I’m not interested in going head-to-head with tech giants on their turf. Instead, the goal is to carve out our own niche, focused on using our unique abilities to push boundaries and extend our edge. Being slightly ahead of the competition can be a powerful attractor. It often leads potential competitors to seek collaboration rather than confrontation. They might approach you with ideas, money, or opportunities, aspiring to share in your advanced position and capabilities. This dynamic can create unexpected partnerships and accelerate progress in ways that benefit everyone involved.

When interviewing potential team members, I often share a crucial insight: if you’re seeking a job where you work 9-to-5 solving problems so you can go home feeling satisfied, this might not be the right fit.

We tackle challenges of a different magnitude. Our projects rarely have quick solutions. Instead, we focus on making steady progress towards ambitious goals.

I sometimes joke that our motto should be: “We suck less.” Nevertheless, the underlying truth is more profound. It’s about understanding your ultimate objective and recognizing that each step moves you in the right direction, no matter how small.

This approach aligns with our belief in playing a different game. We don’t just compete; we redefine the rules of engagement, creating our own metrics for success and pushing boundaries in ways that traditional thinking often overlooks. Kind of like this quote:

“I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.” - Thomas Edison

It doesn’t make sense to challenge a bigger and better-funded competitor in an area where they have an asymmetric advantage. In other words, don’t compete with giants at their own game.

Choose to play a game you expect to win.

Playing a different game is a theme at Capitalogix. We believe that you control the game you’re playing, the rules, how you keep score, and even how you evaluate success. These things inform where to spend time, where to invest money, and even what looks like an opportunity to you. 

Wouldn’t you rather compete in areas where you can create a unique, sustainable competitive advantage? Personally, I want to invest in the things that extend the edges that let us win.

Why? Because ... Mediocrity Is Expensive!

What you lack in size or computer power, you can make up for in creativity, agility, and innovation. 

We sought to create a niche in the investment industry, not through computing power, but through unique approaches to age-old problems. We use AI and data science to enhance decision-making. 

We have an incredibly narrow and consistent focus. Within that area, we are willing to take on problems others avoid and pursue goals that others say are impossible. 

Our niche limits risk and lets us fail faster ... and learn faster. This allows us to take confident action while others are tentative. 

Most big companies - and most of our competitors - are afraid to be wrong. They have to protect their infrastructure, cash cows, and short-term performance metrics. It makes sense (from their perspective) that playing it safe means they’re secure. - but that’s not how it works. 

You can’t challenge the status quo when you are the status quo. 

10x Improvement Is Often Easier To Achieve Than 10%

 

Astro Teller via TED

"In 1962 at Rice University, JFK told the country about a dream he had, a dream to put a person on the moon by the end of the decade.The eponymous moonshot. No one knew if it was possible to do, but he made sure a plan was put in place to do it if it was possible.That's how great dreams are. Great dreams aren't just visions, they're visions coupled to strategies for making them real." - Astro Teller

Incremental change is hard - it’s finding new ways to do the same thing, and you often end up competing in very red oceans - saturated markets where you’re competing on price.

Moonshots sound harder, but you create your own niche, and the constraints of a new idea force creativity and energy. If you’re going after a goal that no one has accomplished before, it’s impossible to be in a red ocean, and it’s easier to mobilize a team around something exciting and new than decreasing some arbitrary metric by 2%. 

 

There are a couple of important lessons to keep in mind when pursuing the unknown.

• Forget what you know - self-reported “experts” are limited by their worldview. If you’re trying to get a different result, you won’t do it by playing by the same rules your predecessors followed. Heuristics are great for making life easier - but they’re very limiting when trying to create something new. 
• Attack the hardest problems first - your biggest problems are your biggest opportunities. If you don’t deal with the big problems now, you’ll never get around to it, and you’ll waste time, energy, and potentially realize you have to pivot much too late.  
• Be comfortable being uncomfortable - Most people find failure taboo, and they’re deathly afraid of it. Tony Robbins talks about our tendency to avoid pain more actively than we pursue pleasure, and it’s true in business. But failure is a part of business. The people I consider most successful got there through incredible pain tolerance and increasingly intense problems that they continued to conquer. 
• Have a short memory for pain - Focus on the gain, not the pain. People often focus on not having enough money, not enough time, or simply not having enough. That scarcity mindset is dangerous and can lead to getting lost in pain and fear. Acknowledging the pain/fear and moving forward from a place of abundance and opportunity helps create opportunities. 

As well, a clear identity is important. You have to understand what you’re pursuing and how you want to attack the problem. At Capitalogix, we’ve gotten very in tune with our goals. 

We invent techniques that identify and adapt to what happens in markets. We apply the lessons learned from past experiences, data science breakthroughs, and hard work to eliminate the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes that are the downfall of most traders and decision-makers.

Small businesses don’t have a monopoly on these mindsets and these opportunities, but companies like Y Combinator, X(and no, I don't mean the company formerly known as Twitter), or HeroX are few and far between ... Elon Musk is famous for moonshots like Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, Neuralink, Xai, etc. Google and Microsoft pursue moonshots as well. 

Good news ... the future is big enough for them and you. 

Choose something that lights you up and leverages what you already know and who you already are.

So what’s your moonshot?

Some Perspective: "I'm Way Closer To Lebron Than You Are To Me!"

With the NFL starting its regular season this week, I was thinking about the talent and effort it takes to compete as a professional athlete.

Take a second to reflect on the journey required to become a pro. In general, the top players from a youth league became standouts in high school and then were star players in college before eventually making it to a professional team. But here's the kicker ... in any other context, they're elite, but unless they're superstars in the NFL, they're considered average or worse. Think about it. By definition, half of the players are below average. 

Meanwhile, I recently came across an example from the NBA that illustrates this concept in a funny but profound way.

There's a relatively famous quote from NBA journeyman, Brian Scalabrine, who said: 

"I'm way closer to Lebron (James) than you are to me!" - Brian Scalabrine

For context, as a USC Trojans men's basketball player, Scalabrine was the top scorer and a leader in field goals and rebounds. He then played 11 years in the NBA ... but at no point in that time was he a star. He didn't put up great (or even good) stats, he wasn't a household name (though he did pick up the nickname "White Mamba"), and he is nowhere near the caliber of player that Lebron James is. In fact, throughout his career, he averaged just 3.1 points, 2.0 rebounds, and .8 assists a game. But, remember, he was good enough to play at a pro level for 11 years.

As a result, many unprofessional (weekend warrior) athletes thought he was an easy target. One day, Brian was playing a rec league game where he dropped 60 points. He tweeted about it, and a bunch of people started tweeting back to the now 40+ years old former NBA player that they could beat him. There are funny YouTube videos about this.

Brian responded by replying:

"Listen. I may suck for an NBA player. Those guys are pretty good. But I don't suck compared to you. You suck compared to me." - Brian Scalabrine

He then accepted their challenge by asking them to send in videos of their play and committed that he would go 1-on-1 against the best of them.

Scalabrine then went on to play 4 of the best players who responded, with one of them having NCAA D1 experience.

The end result?

He outscored them 44-6 - with two of the players scoring 0 points. 

 

via YouTube

It should be self-explanatory, but it seems to be a concept many people struggle with. Any given pro player has been the best of the best throughout their journey. They're the 1% of the 1%. 

But that is probably true for you too. If you're reading this article, you're likely killing it compared to the average Joe. 

Many of us are in rooms with phenomenal business owners and operators. When you meet people like Peter Diamandis, Ray Dalio, or Richard Branson, it's easy to focus on the distance between you and them.

Recognize that it is still a huge accomplishment to be a Brian Scalabrine rather than a Joe Schmo. 

They don't recognize what you and me do recognize. When you're in the NBA, there's all kinds of tells, right? Like if a guy puts his hand like that, you know what he's gonna do. If a guy does a hesitation, you know what he's gonna do. All that stuff is like in real time in the NBA, you got to be so on top of the reads. It's not speed. You can't look at me and say my brain is slow. My brain is fast. My body might be slow, but I have to read whether a guy's gonna shoot, drive, go to the middle, pass. If you're not reading those things, you're not playing in the NBA. - Brian Scalabrine

A helpful reminder.

Keep it up – and as always ... Onwards!

Examining Life Expectancy & Longevity

Life expectancy has been on a steady global rise for longer than I've been alive. 

via worldometers

Meanwhile ... the United States has fallen to 48th on the list of countries with the highest life expectancy.

Hong Kong tops the list with an average life expectancy of 85.63 overall - and 88.26 years for females. 

For comparison, the U.S.'s average life expectancy is only 79.46.

Many factors potentially impact the findings, for example, the average height and weight of a population (with shorter & lighter people tending to live longer), diet, healthcare system, and work/life balance. 

While some of this is out of your control (OK, a lot of it is) - there are definitely things you can do to increase your healthy lifespan. Meanwhile, some people like Bryan Johnson are doing everything they can to live forever. 

Popular Mechanics put together a video series called How to Live Forever, or Die Trying, where they interview scientists and anti-aging gurus to give you insight into pursuing a future without death. 

Unfortunately, recent science has shown that adults in their mid-40s to early 60s begin to experience significant changes in their alcohol, caffeine, and lipid metabolism, an increase in risk of cardiovascular disease, and a noticeable decrease in their skin and muscle health. When you hit your 60s, you also begin to see negative changes in carbohydrate metabolism, immune regulation, kidney function, and a further decline in the previously mentioned factors. 

Here's the good news. Not only is science and technology getting better, but you're always in control. You can make lifestyle changes to increase your longevity, and you can also find supplements, treatments, and protocols that can reverse those factors of aging. Even simple measures like increasing your physical activity or avoiding alcohol before bed can make a massive difference. 

They say a healthy person has thousands of dreams, but an unhealthy person only has one.

That is one of the reasons I spend so much time and energy thinking about staying healthy, fit, and vital.

Focusing on the positive is important ... But to extend your healthy lifespan, you have to start by telling the truth and finding out what you and your body struggle with the most.

A doctor friend gave me some advice. He said it doesn't matter if you are on top of 9 out of 10 things ... it's the 10th that kills you.

Despite our best efforts, Mother Nature remains undefeated.

With that said, here are some of my previous articles on longevity and health: 

• Live Long & Prosper
• How Much Time Do You Have Left?
• Changing Your Definition Of Resolution
• Workouts That Work
• Getting Used To A New Normal (Pt 1, Pt 2, Pt 3)

The goal isn't just to stay alive longer; it's to live life to its fullest for as long as possible.

I recently joined a fantastic mastermind group called DaVinci 50, run by Lisa and Richard Rossi. It brings together a remarkable collection of medical professionals and entrepreneurs focused on the latest research, treatments, and opportunities in health and longevity.

Another great tool I rely on is Advanced Body Scan. Early detection is crucial, but so is tracking the history of your scans to monitor changes over time. In my opinion, the most valuable scan is always the next one.

Additionally, I use a growing list of trackers and biometric devices to measure my heart rate, along with apps and tools for mindfulness, breathwork, and journaling. Together, these practices recognize that mind, body, and spirit combine to define how you live your life.

To end this post, I'll use a farewell phrase I heard often while growing up ... it translates roughly to "go in health, come in health, and be healthy." It's a beautiful way to wish someone well on their journey, emphasizing the importance of health and well-being.

I hope you found something interesting.  Let me know what things and practices work best for you.

An Antidote For Anxiety & Scary Times

People seem rattled right now, don’t they?

Wallets have been tight, and fears of a recession have run rampant.

Even though markets and the economy are not the same thing, many voters believe they are. Consequently, in an election year, I suspect the government will push every button and pull every lever to boost the market leading into November.

Speaking of the markets, they have been pretty volatile the last few weeks. They have posted some of their worst days since COVID-19 but some of the best, too.

We find ourselves in a particularly partisan election year, with lots of uncertainty about who is running, what they stand for, and whether they can make a difference – or even do the job.

The situation feels worse because scary geopolitical events (that threaten World War 3) punctuate seemingly endless negative news cycles.

Now, on to the real point ... those things don’t matter and shouldn’t steal your focus. Why? Because that’s the playing field we all have to navigate.

There will be winners and losers. The key distinction lies in whether you choose to focus on opportunities or risk. 

So, I thought this would be an excellent time to revisit how to cope with losses and manage your anxieties in “scary times.” 

The Anxiety Antidote

During scary times, many people suffer from “I should have ...”, or “if I would have ...”, or “if I could have ...” thoughts.

The problem is that thoughts like those create more stress and distraction. 

I’m reminded of a quote.

"When the trough gets smaller ... the pigs get meaner." - Dan Sullivan

 

 

Negative focus highlights loss, difficulties, past events, missing things, and what you don’t want.

Think of them as an unhealthy reflex that wastes energy, confidence, and time.

All We Have To Fear Is Fear Itself  

I often talk about market psychology and human nature. The reason is that markets reflect the collective fear and greed of their participants... people tend to get paralyzed during scary times like these.

But it’s not the economy that makes people feel paralyzed. People feel paralyzed because of their reactions and their beliefs about the economy. Your perception becomes your reality. 

A little examination reveals that most fear is based on a “general” trigger rather than a “specific” trigger. In other words, people are afraid of all the things that could happen and are paralyzed by the sheer scope of possibilities. These things don’t even have to be probabilities to scare them.

You gain a competitive advantage as soon as you recognize that it’s not logical. Why? Because as soon as you distinguish that fear as not necessarily true, you can refocus your insights and energy on moving forward. You can act instead of react. You make better decisions when you come from a place of calm instead of fear... so create that calm. 

Even a tough environment like this presents you with opportunities if you watch for them ... or even better ... if you create them. 

The Scary Times Success Manual

The goal is to move forward and feel better.

Strategic Coach offers ten strategies for transforming negativity and unpredictability into opportunities for growth, progress, and achievement. They call it the “Scary Times Success Manual,” and what follows are some excerpts:

Forget about your difficulties, focus on your progress.

Because of some changes, things may not be as easy as they once were. New difficulties can either defeat you or reveal new strengths. Your body’s muscles always get stronger from working against resistance. The same is true for the “muscles” in your mind, spirit, and character. Treat this period of challenge as a time when you can make your greatest progress as a human being.

Forget about events, focus on your responses.

When things are going well, many people think they are in control of events. That’s why they feel so defeated and depressed when things turn bad. They think they’ve lost some fundamental ability. The most consistently successful people in the world know they can’t control events - but continually work toward greater control over their creative responses to events. Any period when things are uncertain is an excellent time to focus all of your attention and energy on being creatively responsive to all the unpredictable events that lie ahead.

Forget about what’s missing, focus on what’s available.

When things change for the worse, many desirable resources are inevitably missing - including information, knowledge, tools, systems, personnel, and capabilities. These deficiencies can paralyze many people, who believe they can’t make decisions and take action. A strategic response is to take advantage of every resource that is immediately available to achieve as many small results and make as much daily progress as possible. Work with every resource and opportunity, and your confidence will continually grow.

Forget about your complaints, focus on your gratitude.

When times get tough, everyone must make a fundamental decision: complain or be grateful. In an environment where negative sentiment is rampant, the consequences of this decision are much greater. Complaining only attracts negative thoughts and people. Gratitude, on the other hand, creates the opportunity for the best thinking, actions, and results to emerge. Focus on everything you are grateful for, communicate this, and open yourself to the best possible consequences.

 Click here to download the full PDF version.

Final Thoughts

We can pontificate all day long on the short-term causes of the rises and falls of markets, but I don’t think it does much good. I let the algorithms worry about those. It’s the larger trends we have to be personally aware of.

I sound like a broken record, but volatility is the new normal.

• Markets exist to trade, and if there’s no “excitement” on either side, trades don’t happen.
• Trades are getting faster, which means more information has to confuse both the buyer and the seller.
• You’re no longer competing solely against companies and traders like you. It’s like the cantina from Star Wars; you’ve got a bunch of different creatures (and bots) interacting and fighting with each other, trying to figure out how to make their way through the universe.

Pair that with all the fear and uncertainty, and you’ve got a recipe for increased volatility and noise. That means that the dynamic range of a move will be wider and happen in a shorter period of time than ever before. You’ll hear me echo this thought over the next few years as the ranges continue to expand and compress. Cycles that used to play out over weeks now take days or hours. The game is still the same; it just takes a slightly different set of skills to recognize where the risks and opportunities are. 

Today’s paradigm - both in life and trading - is about noise reduction. It’s about figuring out what moves the needle and focusing only on that.

The crucial distinction is between adding data and adding information. Adding more data does not equal adding more information. In fact, blindly adding data increases your chances of misinformation and spurious correlations.

My final comment is that there’s a difference between investing and trading, and while humans can invest, if you’re “personally” still trying to trade - you’re likely playing a losing game. If you don’t know what your edge is, you don’t have one. 

If you’re investing, I’ll advise you to act like a robot. If you removed human fear and greed from your decision-making - what would you do?

Keep calm and carry on.

Cultivating An Innovator's Mindset

To some, new technology is a good thing. To others, less is more.

Most people simply “tolerate” technology transitions, some people drive them, and others crave them and use them as a catalyst for growth or strategic advantage.

The description begins with resistance and progresses towards compulsion. Reversing this sequence allows us to illustrate the innovation adoption process.

Here is a visualization of the innovation adoption model and market share.

In the image above, the blue line represents consumer adoption (taken from Geoffrey Moore’s “Crossing the Chasm,” while the yellow line represents market share. 

As you can see, only 2.5% of the population drive innovation (or adopt it early enough to help drive the Alpha & Beta versions of emerging technologies). 13.5% make up the Early adopters, who help get it ready for the mainstream. Then, the early and late majorities are the groups that ultimately consume (or use) the mature product. Meanwhile, Laggards are often forced kicking and screaming into “new” technologies as the early adopters are well on their way to subsequent iterations. 

Here is a link to Perplexity’s description of Crossing the Chasm’s innovation-adoption model and other key concepts from the book.

Even if you are not an innovator, here are a few Innovator Mindsets that I find useful. 

1. You Believe There’s A Better Way
   • Wherever you are, you know that there is a best next step, and you are eager to find it and take it.
   • You recognize that the opportunity for more (or better) often lies just beyond the constraints or problems of the current way.
   • The bigger future fuels your efforts. When initial excitement fades, understanding what the bigger future can bring helps you power through.
2. You Are Comfortable Being Uncomfortable
   • You understand that Pioneers sometimes take arrows in the back.
   • When creating a new reality, you expect some resistance as a result of the law of averages. Escaping the status quo takes a lot of momentum, but it’s worth it. 
   • You recognize when victory is near. In a quirk of human nature, too many people quit just before they would have won. Don’t make that mistake.
3. You Know Where You’re Going, Even If You Are Not Sure How You’re Going To Get There
   • Your goal should be your North Star. A clear direction is essential to ensure that activity leads to progress.
   • Measure progress and momentum rather than the distance from your goal.
   • It is easier to course-correct while in motion.
   • If you’re too committed to a path that isn’t leading in the right direction, you might find what Blockbuster, RadioShack, and Kodak found.
4. You Are Married To Questions (Not Necessarily Answers)
   • Everything works until it doesn’t; and nothing works forever.
   • It’s easy to find an answer (and think it’s correct), but there’s always a best next step or a better way.
   • Figure out what you want and how to get it. This is much more empowering than focusing on what you don’t want ... or why you can’t get it.
   • Ask questions that focus on opportunities or possibilities rather than challenges ... or what you want to avoid.
   • Energy flows where focus goes.
   • Commit to finding a way!

I plan on sharing more Innovator Mindsets. Let me know what you think.