Capitalogix

A Few Graphs On The State Of AI in 2023

Every year, Stanford puts out an AI Index¹ with a massive amount of data attempting to sum up the current state of AI. 

Last year it was 190 pages ... now it's 386 pages.  The report details where research is going and covers current specs, ethics, policy, and more. 

It is super nerdy ... yet, it's probably worth a skim. Here are some of the highlights that I shared last year. 

Here are a few things that caught my eye and might help set some high-level context for you. 

Growth Of AI

via 2023 AI Index Report

One thing that's very obvious to the world right now is that the AI space is growing rapidly. And it's happening in many different ways.

Over the last decade, private investment in AI has increased astronomically ... Now, we're seeing government investment increasing, and the frequency and complexity of discussion around AI is exploding as well. 

A big part of this is due to the massive improvement in the quality of generative AI. 

Technical Improvements in AI

via 2023 AI Index Report

This isn't the first time I've shared charts of this nature, but it's impressive to see the depth and breadth of new AI models. 

For example, Minerva, a large language and multimodal model released by Google in June of 2022, used roughly 9x more training compute than GPT-3. And we can't even see the improvements already happening in 2023 like with GPT-4. 

While it's important to look at the pure technical improvements, it's also worth realizing the increased creativity and applications of AI. For example, Auto-GPT takes  GPT-4 and makes it almost autonomous. It can perform tasks with very little human intervention, it can self-prompt, and it has internet access & long-term and short-term memory management. 

Here is an important distinction to make … We're not only getting better at creating models, but we're getting better at using them, and they are getting better at improving themselves. 

All of that leads to one of the biggest shifts we're currently seeing in AI - which is the shift from academia to industry. This is the difference between thinking and doing,  or promise and productive output.

Jobs In AI

via 2023 AI Index Report

In 2022, there were 32 significant industry-produced machine learning models ... compared to just 3 by academia. It's no surprise that private industry has more resources than nonprofits and academia, And now we're starting to see the benefits from that increased surge in cashflow moving into artificial intelligence, automation, and innovation. 

Not only does this result in better models, but also in more jobs. The demand for AI-related skills is skyrocketing in almost every sector. On top of the demand for skills, the amount of job postings has increased significantly as well. 

Currently, the U.S. is leading the charge, but there's lots of competition. 

The worry is, not everyone is looking for AI-related skills to improve the world. The ethics of AI is the elephant in the room for many. 

AI Ethics

via 2023 AI Index Report

The number of AI misuse incidents is skyrocketing. Since 2012, the number has increased 26 times. And it's more than just deepfakes, AI can be used for many nefarious purposes that aren't as visible.

Unfortunately, when you invent the car, you also invent the potential for car crashes ... when you 'invent' nuclear energy, you create the potential for nuclear bombs. 

There are other potential negatives as well.  For example, many AI systems (like cryptocurrencies) use vast amounts of energy and produce carbon. So, the ecological impact has to be taken into account as well.

Luckily, many of the best minds of today are focused on how to create bumpers to rein in AI and prevent and discourage bad actors. In 2016, only 1 law was passed focused on Artificial Intelligence ... 37 were passed last year. This is a focus not just in America, but around the globe. 

Conclusion

Artificial Intelligence is inevitable. It's here, it's growing, and it's amazing.

Despite America leading the charge in A.I., we're also among the lowest in positivity about the benefits and drawbacks of these products and services. China, Saudi Arabia, and India rank the highest. 

If we don't continue to lead the charge, other countries will …Which means we need to address the fears and culture around A.I. in America. The benefits outweigh the costs – but we have to account for the costs and attempt to minimize potential risks as well.

Pioneers often get arrows in their backs and blood on their shoes.  But they are also the first to reach the new world.

Luckily, I think momentum is moving in the right direction. Watching my friends start to use AI-powered apps, has been rewarding as someone who has been in the space since the early '90s. 

We are on the right path.

Onwards!

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¹Nestor Maslej, Loredana Fattorini, Erik Brynjolfsson, John Etchemendy, Katrina Ligett, Terah Lyons, James Manyika, Helen Ngo, Juan Carlos Niebles, Vanessa Parli, Yoav Shoham, Russell Wald, Jack Clark, and Raymond Perrault, “The AI Index 2023 Annual Report,” AI Index Steering Committee, Institute for Human-Centered AI, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, April 2023. The AI Index 2023 Annual Report by Stanford University is licensed under

Yield of Dreams: Laughing Your Way To Financial Freedom

The movie Field of Dreams came out the year my first son was born. If you haven't seen it, it's a fantastic movie. 

Whether you’ve seen it (or not), you might want to see Charlie Epstein’s a one-man play called Yield of Dreams. 

I put together a quick video on why you should watch it:

>> Click Here to check it out

Many of the people who read my blog, or are subscribed to my newsletter, are either entrepreneurs or in the financial space. While Charlie Epstein moonlights as an actor/comedian, his day job is in financial services. He's incredibly sharp, very knowledgeable ... and yes, a little quirky. 

But that quirkiness is what makes him funny - so much so that you'll be captivated long enough to gain some real value. Charlie does an excellent job teaching people how to do practical things to ensure they have enough money when they retire to live a good life.

More importantly, he helps you think about your mindsets and what you truly want, so you can live the life you've always dreamed of and deserved. And even though I didn't think I needed to learn anything new, I gained a ton of practical value – and you probably will too.

As a bonus, half of the proceeds go toward supporting vets with PTSD.

There aren't many people (or "offers") I'd feel comfortable plugging, but this is one of them. As well, many of the other people I would put in front of you (like Dan Sullivan, Peter Diamandis, and Mike Koenigs) love Charlie as much as I do. 

via Yield of Dreams

So, here's the part I copied from Charlie: In this one-man show you'll discover how to

• Work less while making more than you ever have before
• Make more progress towards your dreams in one year than most people do in ten
• Step into the biggest, boldest and most confident version of yourself
• Stop worrying about money and start living your dream life

So, if any of that interests you I highly recommend you sign up. You only have a limited time to do so. 

>> Just click here to learn more about Yield of Dreams

Tech Over The Long Run

Humans are wired to think locally and linearly ... because that's what it took to survive in a pre-industrial age. However, that leaves most of us very bad at predicting technology and its impact on our future. 

To put the future of technology in perspective, it's helpful to look at the history of technology to help understand what an amazing era we live in. 

Our World In Data put together a great chart that shows the entire history of humanity in relation to innovation. 

Max Roser via ourworldindata

3.4 million years ago, our ancestors supposedly started using tools. 2.4 million years later they harnessed fire. 43,000 years ago (almost a million years later) we developed the first instrument, a flute. 

That's an insane amount of time. Compare that to this:

In 1903, the Wright Brothers first took flight ... 66 years later, we were on the moon. 

That's less than a blink in the history of humankind, and yet we're still increasing speed. 

Technology is a snowball rolling down a mountain, picking up steam, and now it's an avalanche being driven by AI. 

But innovation isn't only driven by scientists. It's driven by people like you or me having a vision and making it into a reality. 

Even though I'm the CEO of an AI company, I don't build artificial intelligence myself ... but I can envision a bigger future and communicate that to people who can. I also can use tools that help me automate and innovate things that help free me to focus on more important ways to create value. 

The point is that you can't let the perfect get in the way of the good.  AI's impact is inevitable.  You don't have to wait to see where the train's going ... you should be boarding. 

Onwards! 

Can We Predict The Future?!

New technologies fascinate me ... As we approach the Singularity, I guess that is becoming human nature. 

Second Thought has put together a video that looks at various predictions from the early 1900s. It is a fun watch – Check it out. 

via Second Thought

It's interesting to look at what they strategically got right compared to what was tactically different. 

In a 1966 interview, Marshall McLuhan discussed the future of information with ideas that now resonate with AI technologies. He envisioned personalized information, where people request specific knowledge and receive tailored content. This concept has become a reality through AI-powered chatbots like ChatGPT, which can provide customized information based on user inputs.

Although McLuhan was against innovation, he recognized the need to understand emerging trends to maintain control and know when to "turn off the button." 

In 1966, media futurist Marshall McLuhan envisioned a form of digital research eerily similar to the customized queries now answered by AI. Then he makes a surprising admission about why he studies technological change—with a lesson I think many need to hear. pic.twitter.com/yEBJv95GvP

— Benjamin Carlson (@bfcarlson) March 22, 2023

While not all predictions are made equal, we seem to have a better idea of what we want than how to accomplish it. 

The farther the horizon, the more guesswork is involved. Compared to the prior video on predictions from the mid-1900s, this video on the internet from 1995 seems downright prophetic. 

via YouTube

There's a lesson there. It's hard to predict the future, but that doesn't mean you can't skate to where the puck is moving. Even if the path ahead is unsure, it's relatively easy to pick your next step, and then the step in front of that. As long as you are moving in the right direction and keep taking steps without stopping, the result is inevitable. 

What's In The Box? The Consequences of Labeling

“Words can be twisted into any shape. Promises can be made to lull the heart and seduce the soul. In the final analysis, words mean nothing.
They are labels we give things in an effort to wrap our puny little brains around their underlying natures,
when ninety-nine percent of the time the totality of the reality is an entirely different beast.
The wisest man is the silent one. Examine his actions. Judge him by them.”
― Karen Marie Moning

The current socio-political climate has me thinking about the consequences of labeling things, creating boxes, and simplifying ideas into news-ready headlines.

via Se7en

With more news sources than ever and less attention span, you see ideas packaged into attention-grabbing parts.  The focus isn't on education or the issues, but on getting the click, making your stay on their page longer, and sending you to a new article utterly unrelated to why you clicked on the page.

Complex issues are simplified – not even into their most basic forms – but instead into their most divisive forms ... because there's no money in the middle.

 

via Quote Investigator

The amplified voices are those on the fringe of the average constituents' beliefs – precisely because those are the ones who are often the most outspoken.

Issues that should be bipartisan have been made "us" versus "them," "liberal" versus "conservative," or "right" versus "wrong." The algorithms of most of these sites create echo chambers that increase radicalization and decrease news comprehension.  Identity politics have gotten so strong that you see families breaking apart and friend groups disintegrating ... because people can't imagine sharing a room with someone they don't share the same values as. 

 

via BrainyQuotes.

In psychology, heuristics are mental models that help you make decisions easier.  They're a starting point to save mental bandwidth, allowing you to spend more brain cycles on the important stuff.

That's a great use of "boxes" and "simplification"… but it shouldn't preclude deeper thought on important issues. 

In an ideal world, we would all have the bandwidth to view each case of an issue as a whole issue within itself.  Most things are nuanced, and the "correct" answer changes as you change your vantage point.

I recognize that's not realistic.

Instead, I encourage you to remember to continue to think and learn ... even about things you already know.  Confirmation Bias is one of the more common forms of cognitive bias.  Here is an infographic that lists 50 common cognitive biases.  Click to explore further.

via VisualCapitalist

Important issues deserve more research.  New insights happen between the boundaries of what we know and don't.  Knowledge comes from truly understanding the border between what you are certain and uncertain about. 

I challenge you to look beyond the headlines, slogans, and talking points you like most.  Look for dissenting opinions and understand what's driving their dissent.  Are they really blind or dumb (or are their value systems just weighted differently)?

Not everything needs to be boxed.  Not everything needs to be simple.  You should explore things and people outside of your comfort zone and look to see things from their point of view ... not your own. 

Applying This Lesson  

“I am ashamed to think how easily we capitulate to badges and names, to large societies and dead institutions.”
― Ralph Waldo Emerson, Self-Reliance

I love learning a lesson in one space and applying it to other spaces.  It's one of the cool things about AI.  An algorithm can learn rules in the construction space that may help in the medicine or trading space.  Everything's a lesson if you let it be.

In that vein, the lesson on labeling also applies to yourself and your business.  Don't get me wrong - naming things is powerful.  It can help make the intangible tangible.  However, don't let the label (or your perception of the label) stop you from achieving something greater. 

Many things are true because we believe them to be, but when we let go of past beliefs, the impossible becomes possible, and the invisible becomes visible.  

We are our choices ... and you can make choices today that change who you are (and what you or your business is capable of) tomorrow. 

Hope that helps – Onwards!

My Thoughts On ChatGPT and the AI Revolution

Last week, I shared a post about the rise of ChatGPT. To summarize ... new AI tools (like ChatGPT) are cool, but they can be a distraction if you're not focused on your actual business goals.  Likewise, those tools seem smart, but they are not smart enough to replace you. 

Below is a video containing an edited version of my contributions about using AI in business at a recent Genius Network meeting.

 

via GeniusNetwork.

With something as powerful and game-changing as AI, smart people find a way to take advantage of it (rather than finding ways to avoid or ignore it).

If you keep your head in the dirt, you'll get left behind like Blockbuster, Kodak, or RadioShack. 

With that said, one of the key things I've noticed about new tech is that there's massive churn.  You've seen it with the blockchain and cryptocurrencies.  The companies, products, and modalities that pioneer the industry aren't always the ones who make it.  I think it's because they focus on technology instead of solving their customers' real problems.

Pioneers often end up with arrows in their backs and blood on their shoes.  Too often, this causes them to give up before they achieve real and lasting success.

You don't have to rush, even if it feels like you're falling behind.  To use a surfing metaphor, you shouldn't ignore the coming waves, but you can certainly take the time to wax your board, get in the ocean, and choose which wave you want to ride. 

You can catch the little waves and take advantage of ChatGPT or Midjourney, but as a final reminder, if everyone is doing it, it's not a competitive advantage ... it's the playing field. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 19th, 2023

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Listen to Understand, Not to Respond. (FlowResearchCollective)
• 9 Habits of Creative Genius. (WayneDyer)
• OverHyped and Never Delivered: A Brief History of Innovations that Weren't. (BigThink)
• Introducing the AI Mirror Test, Which Very Smart People Keep Failing. (TheVerge)
• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Frets Over 'Potentially Scary A.I. Tools and How People of the Future Will View Us.' (Fortune)

 

Trading Links:

• Warren Buffett Just Sent a Subtle But Terrifying Signal to Investors. (MotleyFool)
• The Fed Minutes May Reveal a Steep Rise in Rates on the Horizon. (SeekingAlpha)
• The Stock Market Has Been Flipped Upside Down. (Markets)
• IMF: World Economic Outlook is Starting to Recover. (WEForum)
• The Metric that Shows Why the World's Three Biggest Economies Could Be in Serious Trouble. (MarketWatch)

 

Why Less Is Often More

The concept of “less is more” has gained popularity recently, transcending its roots in minimalism.  This idea can be observed in many areas, ranging from the resurgence of simplistic design aesthetics to the widespread popularity of decluttering guru Marie Kondo ...or in the renewed interest in Stoicism.  Minimalism has become an essential aspect of modern life, where people seek to simplify their lifestyles and focus on what truly matters.

The abundance of information and distractions vying for our attention has created a cluttered and overwhelming environment.  We can’t buy everything we see on TV, deep-dive into every interesting topic we learn about on the internet or track everything happening worldwide.  Our limited time and resources force us to choose and prioritize what truly captures our interest and deserves our attention.

In addition to the overwhelm created by the competition for our attention, it is becoming increasingly difficult to discern what is real and trustworthy because of deepfakes, intentional misinformation, and even the seemingly benign advent of AI-generated content that blurs the lines of reality.

The current state of information saturation and manipulation makes it imperative that we approach every piece of information with a healthy dose of skepticism and take the time to verify its authenticity.

Given these limitations, it’s only natural to prioritize and focus on what is relevant and meaningful to us, using our limited time and resources wisely.  The competition for attention demands that we exercise caution, discernment, and purpose in our choices.

There are two critical distinctions that impact your approach to information, as well as your sense of priority and choice of strategies and activities. 

 

The first is whether you are a Specialist or a Generalist.  It isn’t hard to imagine that these two types have pretty different reading lists, habits, and sources of happiness or fulfillment.

 

The second distinction is whether you are a Simplifier or a Multiplier (which is a concept that Dan Sullivan at Strategic Coach has written a book about).  To get to where you are, you’ve been successful at two things in your business career.  You’ve simplified things, which gave you an advantage.  And you multiplied things, which gave you an advantage.  Said a different way, as a simplifier, you took something complex for everybody else and made it simple.  And as a multiplier, you took something that was a new solution, and you had success multiplying it out in the world so that many people could get the advantage of your simplifications.

The truth is, while we all do both, we default to being primarily a Simplifier or a Multiplier. 

The best partnerships happen when you pair the two.  For example, amazing conversations happen when a simplifier says to a multiplier, “I’ve got this elegant solution ... What would you do with it?” Each has something the other doesn’t, and the combination is often exponential.

I am primarily a simplifier.  So, I tend to look for people or technologies to multiply what I produce.

I shot a video on the topic.  Click here to watch.

 

The internet and global digital economy enable you to find an audience for almost anything. 

No matter how far you niche down to find your true calling, there are likely people who are just as excited about what you do as you are. 

In an age where we’re inundated with attention-stealers and ways to spend our time, it’s helpful to remember that less can be more. 

Asking The Right Questions

There’s immense power in asking the right questions. 

Asking the right questions is often more advantageous than having the answer to the question asked.

Asking the right questions is crucial as it facilitates the discovery of appropriate answers, demonstrates progress, and creates meaningful momentum, regardless of the actual answers obtained.

I shot this short video on the power of asking the right questions.  Check it out. 

 

Asking the right questions demonstrates the power of framing, as it allows for a different interpretation and digestion of information.  Even reframing the same question can have a significant impact.  For example, “How do I compete with ChatGPT or other AIs?” vs. “How can I leverage AI to automate tasks I don’t want to do?”

In my experience, when asking someone what they want, often their response revolves around what they don’t want.  However, reframing the obstacle as the path forward makes it easier to uncover the “hidden” opportunity.

You have control over the meaning you assign to things and the emotions they evoke in you.  These distinctions are what separate feeling “sad” vs. “happy” – or “feeling like a victim” vs. “feeling in control of your destiny”.  The power to control your perception determines whether life happens “to you” or “for you”.

When faced with a problem, a mindset of “it can’t be done” can be limiting.  For better results, reframe that "problem" as a "challenge" that can be done – just not in the way it’s currently being approached.

The most important advances in society were impossible until they weren’t.  For example, imagine telling someone in the Middle Ages that you could communicate with people around the globe (in real-time) while simultaneously seeing their faces and sharing documents.  They’d try you as a witch faster than you could say, “Zoom!” 

In the technology industry, the term “Moonshot” refers to a bold and groundbreaking project that was once considered impossible (like landing on the moon).

Success is often a function of using Moonshots to set direction, asking the right questions, being willing to see things differently, and finding a way to move in the right direction while gaining capabilities and confidence.  As long as you are doing those things, the trick is to keep going until you get there.  The result is inevitable if you do those things and don’t give up.

Onwards!

Capitalogix's 23rd Anniversary

Last week I started getting “Happy Work Anniversary!” messages on LinkedIn ... and I was a bit confused because people kept mentioning 23 years. 

Twenty-three years ... That can’t be right? Can it?

For context, here’s what I looked like around that time.

 

My eldest son (who’s now married with a baby) was in middle school. I was just out of the events I described in my TEDx talk. 

However, depending on your definition, the 23rd anniversary can be true or false. Legally, the Capitalogix that exists today is distinct from the initial iteration. Additionally, the company has expanded, its direction has shifted, and what was once a one-person operation has grown into a team of over 20 individuals focused on advancing and commercializing the field of Artificial Intelligence.

It reminds me of the Ship of Theseus (also known as Theseus’ Paradox), which is a philosophical thought experiment that poses the question of whether an object that has had all of its parts replaced is still considered to be the same object. It raises issues of identity, continuity, and change over time. The concept can be applied to physical objects, living organisms, and even organizations or businesses. It challenges our understanding of what it means for something to be fundamentally the same, and if an object can remain unchanged despite undergoing significant changes over time.

The name “Capitalogix” did originate in the year 2000 ... and a surprising amount of the original North Star “purpose” still exists. Honestly, I’m surprised by how much holds up despite 20+ years of passing ... but almost all of it has needed some course correction to adjust to changing tides.  

Regardless, it’s staggering to think about how long I’ve worked in A.I. (since 1991, when it was hard to spell A.I.) and how far we’ve come. 

If I had known how difficult it was at the beginning, I probably never would have pursued it. However, knowing how difficult it is, and how challenging it is to make meaningful progress, I feel better that I did because I realize that it’s not just a competitive advantage, it’s a sustainable competitive advantage. It’s easy for people to focus on a capability, it’s another to make it industrial-grade, robust, reliable, and able to work in difficult conditions. They say that things that don’t kill you make you stronger, it’s true for people, but it’s also true for technologies.  

As we celebrate Chinese New Year, it also feels like a new beginning for Capitalogix as we chase after new possibilities and probabilities. 

We didn’t come this far — just to come this far! Onwards!