New technologies fascinate me ... As we approach the Singularity, I guess that is becoming human nature.
Ray Kurzweil (who is a well-respected futurist, inventor, and entrepreneur) optimistically predicts accelerating returns and exponential progress, where the technological advancements experienced in the 21st century will be vastly more significant and disruptive than those in previous centuries. Kurzeil believes: “The next century won’t feel like 100 years of progress—it will feel like 20,000."
However, there is a tension between our ability to imagine grand futures and our struggle to execute the how—the messy, uncertain work of getting there.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (a noted expert on randomness, probability, complexity, and uncertainty) reminds us that, “We often overestimate what we know and underestimate uncertainty.” There is a risk that “continuous forward motion” sometimes leads to dead ends and that speed without thoughtful direction can be dangerous. This is true in part because technology adoption is often more about human nature than the absolute value of technology.
This post is about embracing the paradox of accepting both the value of vision and the discipline of small, progressive steps.
Dreaming vs. Doing
Recognize that the future is co-authored by dreamers and doers.
To get us started, here is a video, put together by Second Thought, that looks at various predictions from the early 1900s. It is a fun watch – Check it out.
via Second Thought
The Fascination With and Challenges of Prediction
It’s interesting to look at what they strategically got right compared to what was tactically different.
In a 1966 interview, Marshall McLuhan discussed the future of information with ideas that now resonate with AI technologies. He envisioned personalized information, where people request specific knowledge and receive tailored content. This concept has become a reality through AI-powered chatbots like ChatGPT, which can provide customized information based on user inputs.
Although McLuhan was against innovation, he recognized the need to understand emerging trends to maintain control and know when to “turn off the button.”
In 1966, media futurist Marshall McLuhan envisioned a form of digital research eerily similar to the customized queries now answered by AI. Then he makes a surprising admission about why he studies technological change—with a lesson I think many need to hear. pic.twitter.com/yEBJv95GvP
— Benjamin Carlson (@bfcarlson) March 22, 2023
Prophecy vs. Navigation
While we revere “prophetic” moments, most successful outcomes arise from continuous adjustment—not perfect foresight.
Peter Drucker famously said, “The best way to predict the future is to create it.”
I’ll say it a different way ... It’s more useful to view innovation as navigation, rather than prophecy.
Like evolution, Success isn’t about strength or certainty—it’s about the ability to adapt quickly and course-correct as conditions change. This mindset urges leaders to embrace agile, resilient strategies that can respond rapidly to emerging opportunities and threats.
With that said, activity is not progress if it doesn’t lead you in the right direction. There are times when continuous course-correction can lead a team in circles. Pausing for periodic reflection and creating feedback loops helps prevent innovation drift.
While not all predictions are made equal, we seem to have a better idea of what we want than how to accomplish it.
The farther the horizon, the more guesswork is involved. Compared to the prior video on predictions from the mid-1900s, this video on the internet from 1995 seems downright prophetic.
via YouTube
The Distinction Between Envisioning Outcomes and Creating Practical Paths to Them.
There’s a lesson there. It’s hard to predict the future, but that doesn’t mean you can’t skate to where the puck is moving. Future success goes to those who can quickly sense shifts, reorient, make decisions, and take action.
Even if the path ahead is unsure, it’s relatively easy to pick your next step, and then the next step. As long as you are moving in the right direction and keep taking steps without stopping, the result is inevitable.
In Uncharted Territory, It’s Better to Use a Compass Than a Map
The distant future may be fuzzy, but it’s our willingness to keep moving—and keep learning—that tips the odds in our favor.
Reflect on the value of looking ahead, not for certainty but for direction.
Don’t worry if you can’t see your intended destination. Just focus on your next step and trust the journey.
Remember, there is always a best next step.
Onwards!
The History of Technology ...
We are living through the fastest period of technological change in history — a fact that demands not just awareness, but active engagement. Here’s how to recognize this shift, and what you can do to succeed in it.
Our ancestors survived by thinking locally and linearly. Yet today, this mindset often leaves us struggling to anticipate the sweeping, unpredictable effects of technology.
To predict the future of technology, you must understand where we are and where we are headed ... but it also helps to recognize how far we’ve come—and how quickly things are now accelerating.
A Timeline of Human Innovation – From Stone Tools to AI
Our World In Data put together a great chart that shows the entire history of humanity in relation to innovation. It shows how fast we are moving by telling the story with milestones.
Max Roser via ourworldindata
Innovation isn’t only driven by scientists. It’s driven by people like you or me having a vision and making it into a reality.
To see just how far we’ve come — and how quickly things now change — let’s look at some milestones.
3.4 million years ago, our ancestors supposedly started using tools. 2.4 million years later, they harnessed fire. Forty-three thousand years ago (almost a million years later), we developed the first instrument, a flute.
Why Speed Matters
The innovations we just discussed happened over an astonishing expanse of time. Compare that to this: In 1903, the Wright Brothers first took flight ... and just 66 years later, we were on the moon. That’s less than a blink in the history of humankind, and yet our knowledge, technologies, and capabilities are expanding exponentially.
Acceleration Is The New Normal
Technology was like a snowball gathering speed, but it’s become an avalanche—hurtling forward, accelerated by AI. Here are some factoids to back that up.
ChatGPT’s Explosive Growth: In 2025, OpenAI’s ChatGPT will hit 700 million weekly active users—a fourfold increase over the previous year. In its first year, ChatGPT reached 100 million monthly active users in just two months, a milestone that took Instagram 2.5 years.
Workforce Shift: About 97 million people will work in the AI sector by the end of 2025, and the value of the U.S. AI sector already exceeds $74 billion.
Usage Surge: As of July 2025, users submit 2.5 billion prompts to ChatGPT every day, and analysts expect OpenAI to reach 1 billion users by the end of the year.
Yesterday’s stable footing guarantees nothing; you must constantly adjust or get swept away.
While AI dominates headlines, the same story of acceleration is unfolding in fields like biotechnology, climate tech, and robotics. Looking for examples, it’s happening everywhere all at once. From nanotechnologies to longevity and age reversal, and from construction to space exploration ... exponential change is becoming a constant. We certainly live in interesting times!
Turning Information into Actions – What To Do Now
Though I lead an AI company, I’m not an engineer or a data scientist — I am a strategist. My role is to envision bigger futures, communicate them clearly, and leverage tools that free me to create greater value. Ultimately, that’s going to become everybody’s job.
I don’t believe that AI will replace people like us quickly, but common sense tells us that people who use AI more effectively might replace us faster than we’d like.
Start by experimenting with new AI tools. When was the last time you tried a new tool or technology? Even though our company works on AI every day, I’ve challenged myself to continually expand my ability to use AI to create the things I want.
You’ll probably find that the things you want most are just outside your current comfort zone — or you’d already have them.
The next level of impact and value lies just beyond your current habits—comfort is the enemy of reinvention.
A good start is to think about what routine task you could automate next week.
Leaders must move from certainty-seeking to rapid experimentation. Encourage nimble, high-frequency experimentation with emerging tech.
Focus on skillsets that complement, not compete with, automation. And vice versa, focus on automation that complements (rather than competes with) unique abilities.
Share your learnings with your team or community. Set the expectation of progress, and make regular sharing and reporting part of your process. Reward the sharing of learnings over the accumulation of dead knowledge.
Prepare teams not only technologically, but culturally and psychologically, for relentless reinvention.
Brene Brown, a noted leadership expert, says, “Vulnerability is the birthplace of innovation, creativity, and change.”
Don’t let perfectionism hold you back. You don’t need to know every destination before boarding the train; what matters is that you get on. Waiting too long is no longer safe—the train is leaving, and the cost of inaction is climbing.
Success now means hopping on and adapting while in motion—not waiting for all the answers.
Onwards!
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