Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 29th, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Elon Musk’s Posting (And Sleep) Schedule. (FlowingData)
• Scientists Observe 'Negative Time' in Quantum Experiments for the First Time. (Barrons)
• The Secret to a Great Planning Process — Lessons From Airbnb and Eventbrite. (1stRoundReview)
• Why DeepSeek, China's New Top-Rated Open Source Model, Thinks It's ChatGPT. (TechCrunch)
• Five-time World Chess Champion Quits Event After Refusing to Change Out of Jeans. (NBCNews)

 

Trading Links:

• Here are 12 Well-Known Companies that Went Bankrupt in 2024. (CNN)
• OpenAI to Transition For-Profit Arm Into Public Benefit Corporation in 2025. (Particle)
• 6 Emerging Technologies to Build a Startup Around in 2025. (Forbes)
• Former Google Researchers are Dominating the A.I. Startup Scene. (Observer)
• Elon Musk's Vow to 'Go to War' Raises Eyebrows. Trump Sides with Musk in H-1B Fight. (Newsweek)

The World Economy Going Into 2025 ...

Are you a glass half full or a glass half empty person? The recent economic news cycle has certainly been playing on people's fears.

There is a lot of good news and reasons to be confident and excited about what's to come.

Sure, you can focus on the $100 trillion global debt ... but you could also focus on how U.S. states' GDPs compare to global GDPs.

Today, let's look at the $115 trillion global economy. For what it's worth, America is still the dominant force.

 

via VisualCapitalist

America has topped the list for over 100 years and will comfortably continue that reign in 2025. China comes in second, and together, they account for approximately two-fifths of global GDP. That said, China is comparatively a newcomer to their spot - with about 15 years here. 

While we top the list, the fastest-growing economies would go to countries like India, Australia, and Brazil - which are all expected to rise the ranks in the coming years. 

The trend to watch here is what will happen in the Middle East, with Syria overthrowing their government and the Israel-Palestine conflict continuing and impacting the supply chain of surrounding countries as well. 

It will also be interesting to see how Trump's re-election and the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict affect global trends.

Looking beyond traditional economic metrics, I believe artificial intelligence will emerge as one of the most critical factors driving power, progress, and wealth creation in the coming years. It's likely to become both the most coveted resource and the capability we'll most actively seek to deny our adversaries.

The real story of 2025's global economy isn't just told with GDP rankings. While America and China dominate those numbers, traditional economic metrics are becoming less relevant in a world where regional conflicts, supply chain dynamics, and technological innovation can reshape global power dynamics overnight. In the longer term, birth rates and the growth of middle-class infrastructure are strong predictors of what lies ahead. GDP alone doesn't measure what truly matters in the modern global economy.

What indicators are you watching?

What My True Love Gave To Me ...

This year, Hanukkah and Christmas overlap. While we only celebrate 8 days of Hanukkah, Christmas technically has 12 days - which starts on Christmas and represents the time it took for the three wise men to arrive in Bethlehem.

Most people know the song about the 12 Days of Christmas, but here's an interesting visualization of what presents were gifted by "their true love." 

 

via Neil R Kaye

I don't know about you ... but that's a ton of birds. Probably too many.

Forty gold rings don't sound too bad (and less likely to become worthless than the NFTs they thought about substituting here). 

All together, that would be pretty noisy. 

That reminds me of some presents people gave my kids with the specific intent of depriving me of sleep and peace.

Hopefully, you bought presents that the people you care about will enjoy. 

Happy Holidays!

via Neil R Kaye

I don't know about you ... but that's a ton of birds. Probably too many.

Forty gold rings don't sound too bad (and less likely to become worthless than the NFTs they thought about substituting here). 

All together, that would be pretty noisy. 

That reminds me of some presents people gave my kids with the specific intent of depriving me of sleep and peace.

Hopefully, you bought presents that the people you care about will enjoy. 

Happy Holidays!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 22nd, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Here are All the Things OpenAI Released During Its 12 Days of 'Shipmas' Campaign. (Insider)
• The 8 Worst Technology Failures of 2024. (TechReview)
• Beyond Goals. (BetterPath)
• Drone Disclosure – New Leads to the Mystery (DickRussell)
• A Scientist Working to Create 'Mirror Life' Discovered It Could Be 'A Perfect Bioweapon.' She's Asking Other Researchers to Stop. (BI)

 

 

Trading Links:

• America is One Big Casino Now – From Elections to Meme Coins, 2024 Was the Year We Started to Bet on Everything. (Insider)
• VCs Say Digital Agents, 'Crypto Mania,' and a Torrent of Liquidity are the Tech Trends to Watch in 2025. (BI)
• ‘Venmo is for Vices’: Paying for Sex, Drugs and Gambling on the Down-Low. (Forbes)
• Forget the Stock-Market Tumble, the Fed Made the Right Move in a Wild Week. (MarketWatch)
• What are the Checks and Balances on the Power of Elon Musk? The Question We'll All Be Asking Over the Next Year or More. (Noahpinion)

 

How AIs (Like ChatGPT) Learn

I first wrote about this video a few years ago, when artificial intelligence first captured the media's attention. Back then, we were impressed that algorithms could help you pick out your Christmas gifts on Amazon, suggest new music for you on Spotify, and do their best to capture your attention on websites. 

AI is seemingly everywhere now. And what is surprising to me isn't its prevalence or impact ... it is the speed and breadth of its adoption. Last night, at an early holiday dinner, we talked extensively about how easy to adopt and how accessible tools like ChatGPT are (and almost none of us were Nerds). 

With all that being said, I think it's wise to have a basic understanding of the things that most impact our lives. Even if you're not a big fan of AI, understanding its growing powers will benefit you. 

The video below is a bit simple in its explanations, but it describes some fundamental concepts worth understanding.

 

CGP Grey via Youtube

The video is engaging and easy to understand. It focuses on genetic algorithms (which is one type of machine learning) and ignores some of the other more complicated techniques and approaches. For example

In my experience, it is more useful for an executive to understand what tools like this can do rather than how they work. Likewise, it is better to understand when to use tools like this rather than knowing precisely how to use them. But, a cursory understanding like this video still adds value. 

As machine learning gets more complicated and evolves, it gets harder for humans to assess their output or process accurately. Here is something to consider:

How do you know that the answer it gives is the answer you seek?

Just because an algorithm responds quickly and confidently doesn't mean it's right.

While bots can deliver impressive results, their decision-making processes can be opaque. This presents both a risk and an opportunity. Artificial intelligence seems cool, but artificial stupidity is scary ... and making mistakes at light speed rarely results in good outcomes.

It's human nature to feel safer when we understand something. It's human nature to envision machines making human-like decisions, just faster. But we are quickly going beyond that ... way beyond that!

In the past, algorithms were static while data changed. But now we're in a different world - one where the algorithms themselves evolve and dramatically adapt to handle different types of data. While this might sound like a subtle distinction, it represents a fundamental shift in how AI systems learn and operate.

One of the challenges of understanding exponential technologies is that their progress isn't linear. This makes it difficult for humans to accurately gauge how rapidly these tools will advance in capability. As algorithms grow more complex, they will increasingly operate in ways that may not be fully understood by their developers (and even less so by their users). As a result, we'll likely find ourselves using AI to solve problems and accomplish tasks that aren't even on our radar today. 

It might sound strange, but it doesn't matter why a bot makes a decision or what inputs it uses to make the decision. What matters is whether it accomplishes its goal and how its performance and level of decision-making rank in relation to its prior performance and other options (and, perhaps, whether the bot is biased).

Part of what makes artificial intelligence exciting is that it can do a lot of things well that humans are really bad at. And, even when you're using an AI in your domain expertise, it can be a great first step to save you time and effort. 

It's a brave new world, and not only is Big Brother watching, but algorithms are, too.

Live long and prosper!

Are You Ready For The Holidays?

As we near the holidays, you'd think people would be getting cheerier. Jollier, you might say. 

Instead, the holidays tend to bring out the worst in people. 

Why is it often easier to be nice to a stranger (or a dog) than someone you deal with regularly? Emotional baggage is likely the answer. Things like anger, resentment, pain, fear, uncertainty, and doubt are inhibitors that can affect how we interact with others. Frustratingly, our challenges often stem directly from what we bring to each situation ourselves.

It reminded me of one of the earliest videos I shot almost 10 years ago. It highlights the importance of allowing energy to flow freely, enabling individuals to remain focused and resilient in the face of challenges. It doesn't matter what happens ... what matters is what you choose to focus on, make it mean, and choose to do.

 

Sometimes, things don't seem to go well. Despite the annoying evidence to the contrary, it's probably not them ... Which means it is probably you (or at least what you focus on). 

The antidote to negative situations is simple – focus on your progress and the reasons behind your efforts.

The recipe for success (and happiness this holiday season) isn't eggnog ... it is to choose to let energy flow and to have an unrelenting focus on your bigger future.

Bring on 2025!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 15th, 2024

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Personalized Shopping Made Easy: Perplexity’s New AI Shop Feature Explained. (Geeky-Gadgets)
• How ‘Grandma Got Run Over by a Reindeer’ Became a Classic. (NYT)
• How Claude Became Tech Insiders' Chatbot of Choice. (NYT)
• Humans Have Linked Emotions to the Same Body Parts for 3,000 Years. (ScienceNews)
• It Wasn't You. It Was Your Parents – The Book “Adult Children of Emotionally Immature Parents” Is Surging in Popularity. (NYT)

 

Trading Links:

• The Week CEOs Bent the Knee to Trump. (Wall Street Journal)
• OpenAI, Anthropic Face Tough AI Showdown with Big Tech. How This Race with Google, Meta is Playing Out. (Investors)
• Are Social Media Platforms the Next Dying Malls? (Honest-Broker)
• Factors Come and Go … Why Predicting Markets Is Harder Than Most Think. (KlementOnInvesting)
• Wayve’s AI Self-Driving System is Here to Drive Like a Human and Take on Waymo and Tesla. (Wired)

Why Leave The House When You Can Shop Online ...

The holidays are almost here! Time's running out to get your gifts in time. 

Luckily, it's never been easier to get stuff. On top of online shopping, Amazon has stewarded the switch to almost instantaneous shipping. 

I remember when malls were filled to the brim, and Black Friday led to stampedes and people dying. Now, it's brick-and-mortar stores that are dying.

Not only are the in-store deals not as good, but the best deals are online. Here's a chart showing the surge of online shopping.

 

via visualcapitalist

Online shopping now accounts for about 15% of consumer spending, up from 4.1% in 2010. 

In addition, Q4 always sees a massive spike, with online spending accounting for 17.1% of consumer spending in 2023. 

This year, Cyber Monday attracted over 64 million U.S. shoppers, three times the number who shopped in stores. 

You can find change everywhere, but one place to look hasn't changed. Amazon is all about infrastructure and disruption. 

• Amazon announced Rufus, a new generative AI-powered conversational shopping experience.
• Amazon announced a way to get your prescriptions online faster and cheaper than a traditional pharmacy.
• Now, you can even buy cars on Amazon.

It's interesting to consider how drastically this changes supply chain management. People now expect free and fast shipping and the ability to return items if they don't work out (instead of trying them in-store). Meanwhile, brands have high fixed costs due to their existing retail locations, yet they need to keep most of their stock in warehouses instead of their box stores to deal with the surplus of online orders. 

We're already seeing the failure of malls and the bust of commercial real estate. If this trend continues of work-from-home and online shopping, we could see a $250 billion decrease in commercial property value by 2026.  

What do you think it would take to stop the bleeding and encourage both consumers and employees to leave their homes?

Ready Fire Aim!

Michael Masterson wrote a book called Ready Fire Aim: Zero to $100 Million In No Time Flat. It is a practical guide for entrepreneurs and business leaders, focusing on the different stages of business growth and the key challenges and priorities at each stage.

A core message of the book is to start taking action quickly (instead of getting bogged down in over-planning) and use rapid iteration and real-world feedback to refine strategies.

The concept is presented in the context of growing a business – yet the lessons apply broadly. 

Swift action should be your focus ... not over-planning or perfect timing.

Too many companies get stuck in a cycle of brainstorming, getting internal feedback, making changes, and failing to release the product.

Even for released products, too many fail because they took too long to launch or ignored market feedback. 

Masterson stresses that the value of live performance is that it helps you course-correct. He also cautions that there is no such thing as perfect timing. The best timing is almost always ‘Now!’

Now, let’s extrapolate. 

Let’s say you’re pondering a tricky work problem. You know you need to figure it out before the end of the week ... but your brain keeps going in circles. 

You don’t believe you can take decisive action and course-correct because you feel you have to get it right. 

So, what can you do? Write it out. Write out the potential paths, ramifications, and worst-case scenarios as holistically as possible. 

You’ll find that simply by writing it out instead of just ‘thinking,’ you end up more creative with more insight. 

Writing aids in organizing and clarifying your thoughts. 

AI As Your ‘Action’ Partner 

AI can make this process easier, faster, and more manageable. Tools like ChatGPT can help you explore complex topics, run scenarios for you, and provide external feedback. 

It’s not the same as real-world feedback, but it can shorten the ‘Aim’ part of the process. 

As you externalize your thoughts in writing them to whatever AI you choose, you also get the same benefit you did writing your thoughts out in our previous example. 

The business environment is changing faster than ever. Technology is advancing faster, adoption is getting easier, and the average Joe is becoming bullish on AI. Because of that, Masterson’s book is even more relevant now than it was in 2007. Here are a few of the other key takeaways from Ready, Fire, Aim.

• Adapt Your Role: As a company scales, leaders must shift from “doing” to guiding and from tactics to strategy.
• Be Sales-Focused: Keep revenue generation as a core priority, especially in the early stages.
• Build Scalable Systems: Invest in operations and leadership at the right time to support sustainable growth.
• Innovate Continuously: Avoid complacency by fostering an organizational culture that balances efficiency with creativity.

AI and exponential technologies are going to compress cycle types. What used to be long-term planning will just be planning. You have to act fast, not only to capitalize on these trends but also to avoid being wiped out by them. 

Are you keeping up?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 8th, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How Notre-Dame Was Reborn – Hosts First Mass Since 2019 Fire. (NYT)
• OpenAI Employee Says They’ve "Already Achieved AGI". (Futurism)
• Is the Five-Second Rule True? Don’t Push Your Luck. (Popular Science)
• How an Assassin Escaped One of the Most Surveilled Cities in the World. (Wall Street Journal)
• FBI Warns IPhone, Android Users—Change WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger, Signal Apps. (Forbes)

 

Trading Links:

• Amazon, Walmart Threatened by a New Retailer Young People Love. (TheStreet)
• You Want that Gift to Arrive Today? This Is What It Takes. (NYT)
• 90 Investment Facts From 2024. (IdeaFarm)
• Wall Street isn't Worried About a Stock-Market Crash. That's Why You Should Be. (MarketWatch)
• OpenAI Partners With Palmer Luckey's Defense Firm, Paving the Way for AI-Driven Military Tech. (TechSpot)