Capitalogix

Betting On The Super Bowl Champion ...

Are you trying to get rich quickly? Do you want to know if the markets will be bull or bear this year?

Look no further than the “Super Bowl Indicator”. It has to be real; the winning percentage is high, and there’s even a Wikipedia page about it.

 

Image via NFL/Getty Images.

The theory is that a Super Bowl win for a team from the AFC foretells a decline in the stock market, and a win for the NFC means the stock market will rise in the coming year. So, for those who care more about markets than football, you’d be rooting for the Philadelphia Eagles. 

There is one big caveat (among lots of others) ... it counts the Pittsburgh Steelers as NFC because that’s where they got their start. 

If you accept that, the Super Bowl Indicator has about a 68% success rate. Sounds good, right?

Come on ... you know better.

Here are some other “fun” stock market indicators:

• January Indicator
• Aspirin Count Theory
• Hemline Indicator
• Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Indicator
• Men’s Underwear Index
• Big Mac Index

 

Back to Reality

Rationally, we understand that football and the stock market have nothing in common. We also probably intuitively understand correlation ≠ causation. Yet, we crave order, and look for signs that make markets seem slightly more predictable.

The problem with randomness is that it can appear meaningful. 

Wall Street is, unfortunately, inundated with theories that attempt to predict the performance of the stock market and the economy. The only difference between this and other theories is that we openly recognize the ridiculousness of this indicator.

More people than you would hope (or guess) attempt to forecast the market based on gut instinct, ancient wisdom, or prayers.

While hope and prayer are good things ... they aren’t good trading strategies.

As goofy as it sounds, some of these “far-fetched” theories perform better than professional money managers with immense capital, research teams, and decades of experience.

To get a better perspective, here is a thought experiment to try. 

What percentage of active managers beat the S&P 500 in any given year?

... Then, what percentage beat the S&P 500 over 15 years?

The answer is that, on average, less than 33% of active managers beat the S&P in any given year. Last year, 43% beat the Index. Even more interesting is that over a 15-year period, the numbers drop much further. Depending on who is measured, only 12% of active managers and about 5% of U.S. Equity Funds beat the S&P over a 15-year period.

Here are a couple of things to consider when you evaluate those statistics. First, market statistics represent predominantly bull market periods (and underperformance tends to spike during bear markets). Second, the statistics mentioned were for professional traders and funds (and most retail traders do considerably worse than that). Third, and perhaps most importantly, the implication is that professional traders’ “intelligent” choices often turn out worse than chance. That means something they’re doing is hurting performance (rather than helping it). 

via Gaping Void

There’s simply too much information out there for us to digest, process, rank, and use appropriately.

There will never be less data or slower markets.

The only thing you can predict confidently about the markets is that volatility and noise will increase.

There are people beating the markets — not by using the Super Bowl Indicator ... they’re doing it with more algorithms and better technology.

Let me know if you want to learn more about that.

Onwards.

Are you trying to get rich quickly? Do you want to know if the markets will be bull or bear this year?

Look no further than the “Super Bowl Indicator”. It has to be real; the winning percentage is high, and there’s even a Wikipedia page about it.

 

Image via NFL/Getty Images.

The theory is that a Super Bowl win for a team from the AFC foretells a decline in the stock market, and a win for the NFC means the stock market will rise in the coming year. So, for those who care more about markets than football, you’d be rooting for the Philadelphia Eagles. 

There is one big caveat (among lots of others) ... it counts the Pittsburgh Steelers as NFC because that’s where they got their start. 

If you accept that, the Super Bowl Indicator has about a 68% success rate. Sounds good, right?

Come on ... you know better.

Here are some other “fun” stock market indicators:

• January Indicator
• Aspirin Count Theory
• Hemline Indicator
• Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Indicator
• Men’s Underwear Index
• Big Mac Index

 

Back to Reality

Rationally, we understand that football and the stock market have nothing in common. We also probably intuitively understand correlation ≠ causation. Yet, we crave order, and look for signs that make markets seem slightly more predictable.

The problem with randomness is that it can appear meaningful. 

Wall Street is, unfortunately, inundated with theories that attempt to predict the performance of the stock market and the economy. The only difference between this and other theories is that we openly recognize the ridiculousness of this indicator.

More people than you would hope (or guess) attempt to forecast the market based on gut instinct, ancient wisdom, or prayers.

While hope and prayer are good things ... they aren’t good trading strategies.

As goofy as it sounds, some of these “far-fetched” theories perform better than professional money managers with immense capital, research teams, and decades of experience.

To get a better perspective, here is a thought experiment to try. 

What percentage of active managers beat the S&P 500 in any given year?

... Then, what percentage beat the S&P 500 over 15 years?

The answer is that, on average, less than 33% of active managers beat the S&P in any given year. Last year, 43% beat the Index. Even more interesting is that over a 15-year period, the numbers drop much further. Depending on who is measured, only 12% of active managers and about 5% of U.S. Equity Funds beat the S&P over a 15-year period.

Here are a couple of things to consider when you evaluate those statistics. First, market statistics represent predominantly bull market periods (and underperformance tends to spike during bear markets). Second, the statistics mentioned were for professional traders and funds (and most retail traders do considerably worse than that). Third, and perhaps most importantly, the implication is that professional traders’ “intelligent” choices often turn out worse than chance. That means something they’re doing is hurting performance (rather than helping it). 

via Gaping Void

There’s simply too much information out there for us to digest, process, rank, and use appropriately.

There will never be less data or slower markets.

The only thing you can predict confidently about the markets is that volatility and noise will increase.

There are people beating the markets — not by using the Super Bowl Indicator ... they’re doing it with more algorithms and better technology.

Let me know if you want to learn more about that.

Onwards.

My Thoughts on Deepseek as an AI Entrepreneur & Hedge Fund Manager

Every now and then, a moment comes along that forces everyone to stop and rethink what they thought they knew. DeepSeek—a relatively unknown AI startup—just delivered one of those moments.

Imagine this: last week, a company most people had never heard of claimed to have built a cutting-edge AI model for just $5.6 million – and they made it open source. Meanwhile, industry giants like Meta, Google, and OpenAI spend hundreds of millions—sometimes billions—on similar efforts. The implications are massive, and investors felt it immediately.

Within hours, Nvidia’s stock price plunged 16.86%, wiping out over $600 billion in market value. Other AI-heavy stocks followed suit. The reaction? Panic, speculation, and a flood of questions:

• Have we been overpaying for AI development?
• Is brute-force scaling the wrong path?
• What does this mean for the balance of power in the AI world?

What’s happening here isn’t just a new startup making waves. It’s a fundamental shift in how AI is built—and it could change the competitive landscape for years to come.

What makes DeepSeek different?

To me, the main point is that, until recently, AI companies have been treating LLMs like an arms race—the more GPUs, the better. That’s part of why LLMs have become so expensive. Meanwhile, DeepSeek took an efficiency-first approach that reduced computational waste and more efficiently used GPU resources.

This type of disruption will become increasingly frequent across all industries. Exponential technologies are accelerating innovation cycles and opening unexpected development paths. While these discontinuous innovations may seem like isolated surprises, they’re becoming a fundamental part of the competitive landscape. The key isn’t to react to each disruption individually - it’s to develop better strategies for operating in this rapidly evolving environment.

In this case, Deepseek’s breakthrough wasn’t about doing more of what its competitors were good at. Instead, they thought of something else they could do to well to compete. Their breakthrough wasn’t about power ... it was about perspective. It is a good reminder and blueprint to study.

Some think the key message is that businesses no longer need to stock up on Nvidia’s best GPUs to have an advantage. Even if that is true, it begs the question: Will the demand for high-end GPUs decline if AI processing needs start shrinking? Asked another way, if other AI companies also use efficiency-first architecture, will Nvidia’s dominance weaken?

From my perspective, the answer is that Nvidia will continue to grow. I’m excited about a world where the companies that can afford to spend the most money don’t necessarily win. Increased accessibility to high-performing AI models means more entrepreneurs can join the space and create new businesses with novel approaches. Ultimately, many more businesses will build AI into their infrastructure, and chip sales will continue to expand.

AI isn’t just about computing power anymore – it’s about creativity and utility, too. Constraints have always bred innovation, and as companies begin to do more with less, I think you’ll see a shift in the balance of power.

What about America and data privacy?

Despite my excitement about the AI boom, there are valid privacy fears. When I discussed TikTok a few weeks ago, it was clear that the U.S. was taking a stronger stand on protecting its citizens from foreign interference. DeepSeek presents challenges.

To start, it does censor content deemed sensitive by the Chinese government – that also means that particular historical and political topics are met with ambiguous or sanitized responses.

It collects all of your user inputs, any personal information you share, and technical details like your keystroke patterns. They do explicitly tell you this in their Terms of Service. The data is stored in China, raising concerns about legal oversight and privacy laws.

You likely have very little recourse if your data is accessed by or shared with external entities.

My Thoughts

First, DeepSeek is undoubtedly exciting. Even if they’ve embellished their story, the result is impressive. However, it’s also not the end of Nvidia or American-based AI companies. 

Knowing when to sprint and when to jog is an important skill.

AI is shaping our digital world, and DeepSeek is a massive force function in the industry. It is ultimately a good thing for AI (yes, even the Chinese competition).

However, you should probably ask yourself if the benefits of using Deepseek outweigh the risks.

When I coach people on using generative AI, I’ve always urged caution about sharing your sensitive IP with publicly hosted GPTs. Even with OpenAI or Meta, there are clear risks.

It’s also clear that China isn’t the only entity trying to track you or better use your data. As a reminder, if you don’t know how someone is making money off a product … you’re the product. They’re commoditizing you and your data.

That being said, It’s important to be proactive, and it seems to become even more important every week. The landscape is shifting so quickly.

Even so, you have time.

Being proactive also means being smart. As a user of the tools, you don’t need to switch to DeepSeek. Even as a non-tech entrepreneur, now is the time to explore the AI uses that excite you, not to force big leaps. 

If you’re like me and are an entrepreneur in the space, you should certainly take the lessons from DeepSeek and think about how to apply these ideas in your ecosystem.

But my #1 lesson for AI adoption is the same as my #1 lesson for building any habit: Start small - and start in a way that gives you energy.

Humans are good at seeing big changes on the horizon but notoriously bad at predicting what those changes will be.

The goal isn’t to be so fast that you beat everyone else … just to be fast enough not to be left behind.

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 2nd, 2024

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• The Death of "I Don't Know" – Is AI Making Us Smarter or Just More Certain? (PsychologyToday)
• AI Has Shown Me My Future and Allowed Me to Talk to My Future Self. (Wall Street Journal)
• The Best of Naval Ravikant on the Joe Rogan Experience. (GiacomoFalcone)
• It’s Here: OpenAI’s O3-Mini Advanced Reasoning Model Arrives to Counter DeepSeek’s Rise. (VentureBeat)
• China SHOCKS Elon Musk, Launches 10 Times Faster Internet Than Starlink, Its Speed Is ...? (India)

 

 

Trading Links:

• How Countries Respond to Trump's Tariffs is What Matters Next. (BBC)
• DOGE Gains Access to Payment System Doling Out Trillions to Americans. (Wall Street Journal)
• ‘Big Short’ Traders Reuniting for Hedge-Fund Week are Going Long. (Bloomberg)
• Always Bet Against Davos Man. This Year, Everyone Here Is Bullish on MAGA. That's Your Cue to Take the Other Side of the Trade. (NiallFerguson)
• Ray Dalio Predicts China's Rise in AI: Chinese 'Are a Bit Behind in the Chips, But They're Ahead in the Applications'. (Benzinga)

The Time Value of Living Life Fully

Last week, I wrote about my mom's 85th birthday and the value of living a purposeful life. 

The older I get, the faster time flies, and the more important living with the time I have left becomes. 

The idea hit home for the first time following the death of my Dad in 1999.

As he approached the end, one more year of living seemed priceless. Yet, at that point, he was older and more infirm than at any other point in his life. To some extent, the scarcity outweighed the quality.

Wouldn't it be better to recognize the importance of living fully earlier?

In other words, the best way to capture and leverage the value of this year is to live it fully now.

That idea inspired my 2014 TEDx talk, "The Time Value Of A Life Worth Living." It was a reflection on my struggle with the practical realities of juggling my work-life balance during a challenging time. It was about a year that brought my Dad's death, the forced sale of my company by venture capitalists, and a divorce (in that order). Luckily, sometimes, life's darkest days bring the greatest gifts … if you are willing to look for them.

 

via TEDx

In finance, the "time value of money" refers to the principle that the purchasing power of money varies over time (meaning that money today has more purchasing power than money later). This is partly because the value of money at a future point in time might be calculated by accounting for other variables (like interest earned, inflation accrued, etc.).

I realized that a similar calculation applied to life ... or living.

The above video is 13 minutes long. I hope you'll watch it, but if not, I've added some of my favorite excerpts below.

• Many people get stuck moving away from pain, and they forget to move toward opportunity. 
• When you are stuck, a shift in role or perspective can help you find a new path or possibility. 
• You can decide to stop playing the games you're playing and find a new—better—one. 
• The difference between good and great is infinitesimal. People who are good take advantage of opportunities ... but people who are great create them. 
• Many people see opportunities, but few take action. "Life" (the noun) often gets in the way of "living" (the verb). 

Everyone has the same 24 hours each day, but some use them better than others. Some build businesses, transform lives, or create art that will last far beyond their lifespan, while others die without ever truly living. 

The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.

How many amazing vacations do you have left? How many jaw-dropping moments? How many fantastic meals? How many Super Bowls?

What about time with your parents or older relatives? It's easy to forget to call or miss an important event because "life happens," but if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person, doesn't it become more special?

The Time Value of Time

In many senses, time is relative. 

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand this quote from Einstein.

" When you are courting a nice girl, an hour seems like a second. When you sit on a red-hot cinder, a second seems like an hour. That's relativity."

It is about more than perception. 

Here is something that highlights the relative value of time. 

• To understand the value of a year, talk to a student who has failed an important exam.
• To understand the value of a month, talk to a mother who has given birth to a baby a month prematurely.
• To understand the value of a week, talk to the publisher of a weekly newspaper.
• To understand the value of an hour, talk to a couple in love who are separated and want only to be together again.
• To understand the value of a minute, talk to someone who has just missed their train or plane flight.
• To understand the value of a second, talk to someone who has lost a loved one in an accident.
• And to understand the value of a millisecond, talk to someone who won the silver medal at the Olympic Games.

Time waits for no one. So it is important to remember to make the best use of the time you have.

A Change of Pace:

When I jog, the beginning and the end are the hardest for me. After finding the right pace and settling into a comfortable rhythm, most of the run is relatively painless. My mind and body switch to nearly automatic modes, and I have time to think about many things.

Work is similar in many respects. Once a team gets into a rhythm, work and progress become somewhat automatic. Breaking inertia is a challenge – but people recognize that it's a challenge. The more insidious problem is failing to recognize that the work rhythm that's comfortable and produces progress is still a rut. It doesn't stretch and challenge the team to strive for more. Yet, stretching is what drives innovation. Sometimes you need to sprint. Other times you need to jog. Sometimes you need to rest ... but you won't get different results if you continue to do the same things the same way. 

The same is true about your perspective. 

Changing your pace or perspective can be an incredible catalyst to create or achieve something better ... and to better take advantage of the life you have left.  

In my TEDx talk, I mentioned "living like you only have a year left," and recognized how much more "life" we squeezed out of the last part of my Dad's life. 

How do you replicate that?

To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, and special experiences that make you feel like your best self. 

• Hitting flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
• Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
• Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say - Wow!
• Making a difference in someone's day or giving back to your community;
• Experiencing peace and relaxation;
• Feeling pure joy.

It's easy to get lost and take for granted these moments when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left, they take a whole new meaning. 

What would it take for you to get the most out of your life, today? How can you maximize the time you have left? Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.

To start, think about different time frames:

• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?

 Make those lists ... it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.

Living A Purposeful Life As You Age

I've shared this concept relatively recently, but in honor of my mom's 85th birthday, I thought I'd share it again with some edits. 

Over the past century, life expectancies have soared while birth rates have declined. This unusual combination of population dynamics creates significant demographic and socioeconomic challenges for societies worldwide.

To put things in perspective, adult diapers now outsell baby diapers in Japan. Think about how that likely reshaped Japan's workforce and consumer markets.

Getting old is tough, and it gets tougher the older you get.   As a result, finding your 'reasons for being' and joy in life becomes even more important ... it may also be the secret to living longer and healthier.

Many people (all over the world) struggle to get up in the morning. 

There's a Japanese concept called Ikigai that may help.

Ikigai centers around finding purpose as you grow older. Paradoxically, it makes sense to start the process as early as possible. 

 

via InformationIsBeautiful

Finding your "reason to be" and living with purpose is a key to making the most of your time.

The graphic highlights something interesting (yet almost counter-intuitive) … When two regions intersect, it creates something positive (e.g., a passion or a mission).   However, where three regions intersect, it creates a pain point (for example, it could be what you're good at, you love doing it, the world needs it … but it doesn't make you any money – so now you're struggling).

It's worth examining and thinking about for a bit.

For a different perspective, check out Dave Kang's post Ikigai Ruined My Life. In it, Dave expresses his belief that there is freedom and value in understanding and expressing your purposes in flexible and separate ways.

On a related note, here is a TEDx talk about the nine diet and lifestyle habits that help people live past 100 ... whether or not they take you past 100, they're probably a good place to start. 

 

TED-ED via YouTube

And here is a link to Dan Sullivan's e-book, My Plan for Living to 156. That may sound outrageous, but it's worth reading because Dan shares surprisingly valuable insights in this book. It doesn't matter whether you actually live to be 156; what matters is living as if it were true. Someone who believes they're approaching the end often looks for excuses or an off-ramp rather than seeking purpose, meaning, and a Bigger Future. By shifting your perspective, you can create a more purposeful and fulfilling life, regardless of your actual lifespan.

I'm now 61. While I'm healthier than I was 10 years ago, that doesn't mean I'm not feeling my age or the consequences of decisions I made when I was younger. Aging isn't for the weak, but what a blessing it is to the strong. I genuinely believe the next 60 years can be bigger and more exciting than my last 60. That makes every day a gift and every struggle an opportunity. 

Live long and prosper!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 26th, 2025

You might have heard that the price of eggs is skyrocketing due to the Avian Flu. If not, you should know that over 17 million egg-laying hens have died as a result only in the last two months of 2024. That accounts for over half of the death toll in 2024. That means it's going to get worse before it gets better. Prices are expected to rise 20% - compared to 2% for the result of inflation on other grocery items. 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Why Everyone in AI is Freaking Out About DeepSeek. (VentureBeat)
• AI Companions Will Change Our Lives. (Time)
• DOGE's Road to Saving $2 Trillion Starts with an Unexpected Order. (Axios)
• A 2025 Guide to Lunar New Year as We Slither Into the Year of the Snake. (CNN)
• Sleepmaxxing is the Newest Wellness Trend—But Does It Actually Work? (NationalGeographic)

 

 

Trading Links:

• Morgan Stanley CEO: The Whale-Like Deal is Out There Under the Trump Administration. (Finance)
• Trump's Early Presidency Redefines Global Economic and Energy Policies. (Particle)
• The New American Oligarchy – Trump's Rise Was Decades in the Making. (MSNBC)
• Despite Trump’s Demand that the Fed Cut Rates, Wall Street Increasingly Sees the Exact Opposite Happening. (Fortune)
• ‘The Great Detachment’ is the Defining Workplace Trend of the New Year. (TheDailyUpside)

 

 

Happy Birthday, Mom

Yesterday was my Mother's 85th birthday. 

Her children surprised her with over 60 family and friends at dinner last night. Here is a photo of us with her at the party.

My mom is quite the woman. She went to Cornell, taught Spanish Literature at Temple University, and has volunteered for countless good causes. At 40, as her kids became more self-sufficient, she decided to go to law school and become a lawyer to help those who needed it most. That doesn't even begin to capture it! For example, she still serves as a museum docent and is an active member of many clubs and organizations. In addition, after my Dad died, she chose to serve as a hospice counselor to help families going through that difficult time. After doing that for a while, she decided that she wanted to continue – but in a more positive way. So, to help make things better and easier to bear, she became a clown to bring light to people struggling. That is not a sentence I imagined writing a few years ago.

My mom also loves poems, wordplay, and puzzles.

As part of her celebration, we had everyone (OK, almost everyone) write poems for her. 

I did not write a poem (though I did write something) ... and I also chose not to use ChatGPT (or any other large language model) to help with what I wrote. 

I feel like I should explain that. What I did write, came from the heart.

If my goal had simply been to come up with a poem, I would have used ChatGPT or one of its competitors. The truth is, many people at the event did exactly that, and I was surprised at the quality of their output.

With that said, there's something meaningful about the process of thinking deeply about something (in this case, my Mother) and choosing which things to highlight (or set aside), what to poke fun at, and which things to express gratitude for. The act of thinking and writing is valuable ... separate and apart from the output generated.

The same is true for your life as well. Being and Doing are both important. 

Your identity and strategies combine to create the life you are living. Said a different way, the things you choose to focus on (and what you make them mean) shape your perspective and guide your actions. 

That is also why it's vitally important to consciously create a compelling future that calls you forward (and keep score by tracking your progress in ways that resonate with your values).

Here is a small excerpt from my love note to my Mother.

The Golden rule says “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.” But sometimes, it’s important to remember to be as kind to yourself as you are to others.

As I think about you and what I wish for you, Mom, it’s that you’re as kind and understanding to yourself as you’ve been to those around you.

It’s important to recognize the progress you’ve made with the good you’ve done, rather than what could have or should have happened - or how many things you still feel the need to do.

I think one of the most useful definitions of “intelligence” is that it is the ability to get more of what you want - and for you, Mom, I think that is a sense of happiness, contentment, and purpose. In your words - a Happy Heart.

Happy Birthday, Mom … and many more! 

I suspect we all know the power of purpose. With a big enough WHY, the HOWs don't seem to matter.

The average age at this party was probably 80 – and at least one of them was 100! Think how important it is for them to have a sense of purpose and accomplishment!!

But if it is important for them ... it is probably more important to you because of something I call The Time Value of Life (which we'll discuss next week).

America's TikTok Ban: Permanent or Temporary?

It's official: TikTok is banned in the United States ... or was? Or ... will be? It's gotten complicated. 

Earlier this week, the Supreme Court upheld the ban. As a result, at around 9:30 PM central time yesterday, TikTok voluntarily began shutting down its services in the U.S.  Here is the message it displayed when users tried to access the app. 

 

 

Over 170 million Americans reportedly use the app. As a result of the ban, TikTok also voluntarily shut off access to its other apps - Capcut, Lemon8, and more.

The U.S. government initially justified the ban because it feared the Chinese government used the app for spying and information-gathering purposes. As a result, TikTok was ordered to separate from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance. 

Then, today, after 14 hours of being offline, TikTok suddenly went live again. Had Trump saved the day? He has extended the deadline for ByteDance to make progress. And instead of asking them to sell TikTok, it seems he's looking for the U.S. to joint venture with the company, and own 50% of the app. 

Even though the app still might be banned, news outlets report that Trump plans to throw an olive branch to the Chinese government in hopes of accomplishing broader objectives. In the meantime, TikTok is back online.

I understand what prompted a ban like this. A lot of it comes down to national security interests. China is among the most aggressive nation-state actors focused on cyber warfare and industrial espionage. Their actions are increasingly overt, and I worry Americans have become too desensitized to these threats and their consequences.

We live in interesting times. Nation-state actors and private hackers are perpetrating a new form of exponential tech-enabled warfare. It threatens our infrastructure, government, private sector, intellectual property, trade secrets, and, for individuals, their personal information, tendencies, and even physical security.

I don't believe that anything I've said here is an overreaction. There are many documented cases of hacking attempts, compromise, and malicious coding. It's even more dangerous when done in the open, and we become immune to it.

Ironically, last week, as news spread that the ban was likely to be upheld, many Americans responded by downloading an app called Xiaohongshu (or Rednote). Rednote is a Chinese social media app and e-commerce platform that resembles a blend of Pinterest and TikTok. 

Many TikTok refugees have already begun using the app earnestly – and interacting more directly with their Chinese counterparts. There are jokes about being Chinese spies, Americans helping Chinese students with their English homework, pet pictures shared, inquiries into each other's cultures, and even questions about whether aspects of U.S. or Chinese propaganda are true. 

Duolingo said Thursday that the number of U.S. users trying to learn Mandarin has rocketed 216% compared to last year. Many Chinese users have also added English subtitles to their videos and created explainer videos to help Americans navigate the Mandarin-based interface better. 

While it is a surprisingly wholesome interaction, it is likely the opposite of what our government intended. It's very similar to the (Barbara) Streisand Effect, which is an unintended consequence of attempts to hide, remove, or censor information; such efforts often increase public awareness of the information instead.

But it's unlikely this Xiaohongshu spring will last. Not only are the national security fears amplified on the app, but China probably doesn't want the American youth influencing its own. Trump has also reversed his earlier position on TikTok and promised to delay and hopefully reverse the ban once he's in office. 

While Rednote may use this to bolster their value pre-IPO, it's unlikely they're willing to upset local regulators. So, you will likely see Americans siloed or kicked off the app and gently nudged back on TikTok. 

You may take this whole debacle as naivety from the American youth, but I would say the opposite—it's cynicism. They likely believe the cost of their digital existence is giving up their data to Big Tech, advertisers, and the authorities. At this point, it likely doesn't matter to them who is the one watching. They know they're being watched. 

What do you think? Will TikTok fully come back? Is it a good thing if it does?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 19th, 2025

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Beyond Transformers: New AI Architectures Could Revolutionize Large Language Models. (Decrypt)
• Is It a Psychopath or Sociopath? Key Distinctions Explained. (ActiveMan)
• 11 Historians Predict How Joe Biden Will Be Remembered. (Politico)
• 'A Small Act of Patriotism' – Canada's Anti-Maga Hats Go Viral. (TheGuardian)
• Whistleblower Says Government UFO Retrieval Program Exists – And That We Have Spacecraft. (NewsNation)

 

Trading Links:

• Donald Trump, Crypto Billionaire – Trump's "Memecoin" Gained Billions in Value Overnight Before Inauguration. (Axios)
• TikTok Says It is Restoring Service for U.S. Users After Trump Comments. (NBCNews)
• Yellen Says Treasury Will Use 'Extraordinary Measures' on Jan. 21 to Prevent Hitting Debt Ceiling. (TheSunChronicle)
• Who Was Better for the Stock Market? Biden or Trump? (Investors)
• The Stock Market Has Never Looked Like this Before — Regardless of Who's President.(Finance)

Carl Sagan's Foresight from 1996

Carl Sagan was an astronomer and planetary scientist whose most enduring legacy lies in his extraordinary ability to communicate complex ideas to the general public.

Shortly before his death, he participated in an oddly prescient interview about short-form media and public attention. It is worth clicking to hear his clear thoughts about how governments will use ignorance of science and technology to control people.

 

via YouTube

He goes into more detail about this topic in his book, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark."

“I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time—when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness ... the dumbing down of America is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance."  - Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World

With the national outcry at TikTok's ban being upheld in the Supreme Court, this feels even more relevant. 

With TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts, even 30 seconds of attention sounds generous. Smooth-sounding AI-generated slop only makes it worse.

In many ways, we've even forgotten how to be appropriately skeptical. It's not enough to question authority and look for trusted evidence; you must also question their detractors and replacements. Laziness and ignorance rarely lead to good outcomes.

There is room in life for faith, optimism, and belief. But when you question what's being pushed toward you, how influenced are you by your existing biases and beliefs? It's hard to reason someone out of a position that they did not reason themselves into. 

Do you think America is becoming more or less ignorant? If more, what do you think it would take to reverse that trend?