You can find forecasts anywhere ... but since they're basically guesswork and I don't know what data they are using or excluding, I don't spend much time on them.
That said, I found this infographic easy to look at and think about. So, it's as good a place to start as any. Also, VC draws from a database of 700 expert forecasts to make this chart.
Some are pretty easy to predict - like GenAI's shift to text-to-video. Or, an increase in lawsuits and regulations around AI. Others are questionable. In the past few months, we've seen TikTok investing heavily in the growth of its e-commerce business. Insiders have stated they believe they're trying to compete with Amazon. We'll see how that goes?
On a positive note, it seems like most are predicting positive effects on the market & economy, including a decrease in inflation and interest rates, bonds on the way back, and record highs in the S&P 500.
I'd love to hear your predictions. What do you think?
You’re probably aware that I’m a big Dallas Cowboys fan. Unfortunately, they were crushed today by the Green Bay Packers in the first round of the NFL Playoffs.
Here is a photo I grudgingly took with a Packers fan at the game.
The Cowboys looked great all season, except when they didn’t… which was rare (but extreme). It happened three times this year. Early in the season against the Cardinals and the 49ers ...and obviously, it happened again today.
Only one team can win the Super Bowl. I know that. Yet, somehow, the Cowboys seem to have a real chance most seasons. That is probably why the NFL tries so hard to create parity ... to keep fans interested.
On a lighter note, one thing we can probably agree about is that geriatric white dudes shouldn’t rap. At least ... that’s what my kids tell me when I try.
Unfortunately, the Owner of the Cowboys, Jerry Jones, didn’t get the memo.
I met Jennifer in April of 2004. We got married in January of 2008. That means we celebrated our 16th Wedding Anniversary this week – and we're nearing 20 years together.
Wow, how time flies!
On one hand, it seems like it was just yesterday. On the other hand, portions of that decade seemed to take forever.
As an entrepreneur, I live in a weird "tense". For me, the future and the present are often blended. Meaning, that I imagine the future I want – and then I find the path to create (or manifest) that destiny. Not surprisingly, some of the things that were easy to imagine were hard to bring into reality (in a reproducible, efficient, and effective manner or process) ... And these things seem to take forever.
Other things (like relationships or the growth and maturation of my kids) seemed to happen in the blink of an eye.
I consciously try to be more mindful and grateful for the progress (and even the minor moments, wins, or curiosities) before me. The truth is that if you fail to notice them, you don't experience them.
Here is to experiencing all that you need or want ... and I hope the rest serves as raw material, learning, or fuel to get you there faster.
As someone who has been in tech and Artificial Intelligence for over 30 years, my personality and thought processes are centered around facts and reason.
With that said, I've always had a soft spot for "arts" over sciences. I appreciate meditation and mindfulness practices. Unquestionably, I've found that technology helps me do that quicker, better, and with more certainty about the results.
That's what made this conversation with Joshua Pellicer so great.
Joshua has lots of experience using AI tools and techniques and getting the most from generative AI.
When I asked him what use cases he was most excited and optimistic about, he answered "Manifestation".
That is not what I expected ... but it made sense after discussing it. Check it out.
Manifestation doesn't cause the universe to hand your dreams to you on a golden platter. It does help you maintain a positive mindset and focus on what you want (instead of avoiding what you don't want).
As someone who (in a past life) was an "elite athlete," my mind often thinks my body is capable of more than it actually is.
Well, it still is ... just less often and with a higher chance of hurting myself.
It's taken a lot of adjustments to find what routines work for me. They can't just be low-impact or good for me ... they have to be fun, and they have to allow me to improve, not just maintain.
I've found a couple of things that work for me, like the Carol AI Bike and HOTWORX.
Another one of my favorites is the X3 bar by Dr. John Jaquish. It's a metal bar that attaches to various bands and allows you to do variable resistance training. It's more efficient and effective than weights because, instead of using the same amount of force through the entire rep, you're able to do more weight where you're strongest and less weight where you're weakest.
He works with professional athletes, NBA teams, and more.
I shot a video with him about why X3's variable resistance is a better way to exercise. Check it out.
My son, Zach, is a holdout only because he prefers spending an hour in a gym. It's his meditation and his social hour all in one. I get it. I can't pretend I don't still enjoy going to the gym and lifting weights. But, I can recognize a lot of that is vanity and fun instead of prioritizing effectiveness and efficiency (getting more done in less time).
Taking a "Less is More" approach flies in the face of "No Pain, No Gain."
The X3 is portable; it doesn't take a long time to set up or use; and I feel stronger when I use it consistently. That means it is efficient and effective. Surprisingly, it is also fun.
The new X3 Force uses tracking & gamification to encourage use and progress. That is important because, with any of these tools, you still need to consider the Head, Heart, and Feet of the matter. It isn't enough to know what or how to do something. You have to want to do the thing. And then you have to actually do the thing.
I'm excited about this, because I think increasing longevity is a promising frontier, and I believe short effective workouts are fundamental to living healthier and longer.
Nine years in front of entertainment devices - another 10.5 years spent working. You get the idea.
If you have goals you want to accomplish, aspirational travel, and lifestyle plans - this really puts the idea of finding and living your passion in perspective.
Do you have the time to waste it?
VisualCapitalist put together a chart projecting longevity based on 2020 mortality rates.
I turned 60 this July, so I only have 20 years left, according to this calculator. I expect more!
There are some interesting statistical facts in this; for example, an average American baby boy can expect to live until 74 ... but if that boy turns 21, his life expectancy jumps to over 75.
While these numbers seem pretty high, there are two things to consider. First, COVID heavily reduced these numbers because mortality rates went up. That likely won't continue (though it will likely continue to affect your insurance premiums and pension benefits).
Also, remember that these numbers are based on 2020 averages, which likely differ from you (specifically considering your race, income, location, etc.). These numbers also don't take into account expected medical and technology advances, etc.
Finally, I think Purpose is one of the most important catalysts of longevity. People often die when they retire ... not because they're done working, but because they're done striving.
Have you listened to the new Beatles song? It took almost 50 years and new technology to create.
How did this happen? An AI system, made by Peter Jackson, uncoupled the vocals from the piano on a poor-quality tape demo from the 70s. The result – a song that would have never seen the light of day was able to bring John Lennon back from the dead to release new music for a new generation.
Was it a touching tribute and closure to an extraordinary legacy? Does it qualify as AI "art"?
We are seeing a surge in creativity due to the rise of generative AI.
People are doing amazing things with AI ... and it's making entrepreneurship accessible to a new group of people.
AI is exciting, but it is also scary. I would argue that it is a net positive. However, there are also clear drawbacks (and potential risks). For example, there are the obvious ones like deepfakes, art being stolen and fed into models without consent, etc. But, there's one that many aren't talking about...
It's a lack of nuance or understanding of art.
Here is an example of using generative AI to improve a famous art piece.
In my opinion, the creator completely missed the point when they tried to improve Nighthawks by Edward Hopper.
The truth is that I don't know their intent or thought process.
However, Nighthawks is famous for a reason. It shows a patron, presumably at a late-night diner, with a desolate urban streetscape outside. To the right audience, it embodies the isolation of a 24-hour modern society and big cities, and the hidden changes of the 20th century. It is a poignant composition and one of the most famous American art pieces.
First, he had AI parse the image and write a description of it. Then, he had it regenerate the image from the description. The setting became light. He thought he could make it better, so he moved people outside. He parses a description again and creates a new image again. He did this several times.
The result is what you see — a beautifully created composition lacking any depth.
The AI did its job; the human did not.
A better prompt or a more artful process would have had a better result.
But is it art?
Once created, art is in the eye or mind of the perceiver. So, should we care who or what creates it?
Here are some other questions worth pondering. Is AI at its best when it's amplifying human intelligence - rather than replacing it? Or ... is the goal simply to amplify intelligence?
The Universe often gives you increasingly painful chances to learn a lesson.
What do you think we're supposed to take from this?
Honestly, the fact that we’re at the top of the food chain is pretty miraculous.
We’re slow, we’re weak, and we’re famously bad at understanding large numbers and exponential growth.
Our brains are hardwired to think locally and linearly.
It’s a monumental task for us to fathom exponential growth … let alone its implications.
Think how many companies have failed due to that inability … RadioShack didn’t foresee a future where shopping was done online. Kodak didn’t think digital cameras would replace good ol’ film. Blockbuster dismissed a future where people would want movies in their mailboxes because they were anchored to the belief that “part of the joy is seeing all your options!” They didn’t even make it long enough to see “Netflix and Chill” become a thing.
Innovation is a reminder that you can’t be medium-obsessed. Kodak’s goal was to preserve memories. It wasn’t to sell film. Blockbuster’s goal wasn’t to get people in their stores; it was to get movies in homes.
Henry Ford famously said: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Steve Jobs was famous for spending all his time with customers but never asking them what they wanted.
Two of our greatest innovators realized something that many never do. Being conscientious of your consumers doesn’t necessarily mean listening to them. It means thinking about and anticipating their wants and future needs.
Tech and AI are creating tectonic forces throughout industry and the world. It is time to embrace and leverage what that makes possible. History has many prior examples of Creative Destruction (and what gets left in the dust).
We're now midway through the Cowboys Season, and despite injuries plaguing the team, we just had a fantastic 43 - 20 victory over the Rams.
At every game, I run into this guy, and every game he wears a different creative, and well-thought-out costume. He sits on the 50-yard line. He wears Ferragamo shoes and a nice watch. For his day job, he is the Head of Psychiatry at a well-known hospital in the area. Yet, something about this game captures his imagination.
Jerry Jones does a lot right in how he builds his "Disney Ride." But this post will focus more on what the coaches and players do.
I'm regularly surprised by the levels of innovation and strategic thinking I see in football.
Football is something I used to love to play. And it is still something that informs my thoughts and actions.
Some lessons relate to being part of a team, while others relate to the coaching or management side of things.
Some of these lessons stem back to youth football ... but I still learn things watching games – and even more, from watching Dallas Cowboys practices at The Star.
Think about it ... even in middle school, the coaches have a game plan. There are team practices and individual drills. They have a depth chart, which lists the first, second, and third choices to fill certain roles. In short, they focus on the fundamentals in a way that most businesses don't.
The picture, below, is of my brother's high school team way back in 1989.
To re-state, most businesses are less prepared for their problems than an 8th-grade football team. Now, that might sound offensive to some of you – but if you think about it ... it's pretty accurate.
Losing to an 8th Grade Team
I shot this video right before the COVID-19 shutdown. I encourage you to watch it. I think it's 3 minutes well spent.
Football teams think about how to improve each player, how to beat this week's opponent, and then how to string together wins to achieve a higher goal.
The team thinks of itself as a team. They expect to practice. And they get coached.
In addition, there is a playbook for both offense and defense. And they watch game films to review what went right ... and what they can learn from for use later.
Contrast that with many businesses. Entrepreneurs often get myopic ... they get focused on today, focused on survival, and they lose sight of the bigger picture and how all the pieces fit together.
The amount of thought and preparation that goes into football - which is ultimately a game - is a valuable lesson for business.
What about when you get to the highest level? If an 8th-grade football team is equivalent to a normal business, what about businesses that are killing it? That would be similar to an NFL team.
Let's look at the Cowboys.
Practice Makes Perfect
How you do one thing is how you do everything. So, they try to do everything right.
Each time I've watched a practice session, I've come away impressed by the amount of preparation, effort, and skill displayed.
During practice, there's a scheduled agenda. The practice is broken into chunks, and each chunk has a designed purpose and a desired intensity. There's a rhythm, even to the breaks.
Every minute is scripted. There's a long-term plan to handle the season ... but, there was also a focus on the short-term details and their current opponent.
They alternate between individual and group drills. Moreover, the drills run fast ... but for shorter time periods than you'd guess. It is bang-bang-bang – never longer than a millennial's attention span. And they move from drill to drill – working not just on plays, but also on skillsets (where are you looking, which foot do you plant, how do you best use your hands, etc.).
They use advanced technology (including advanced player monitoring, biometric tracking, and medical recovery devices ... but also things like robotic tackling dummies and virtual reality headsets).
They don't just film games, they film the practices ... and each individual drill. Coaches and players get a cut of the film on their tablets as soon as they leave. It is a process of constant feedback and constant improvement. Everything has the potential to be a lesson.
Beyond The Snap
The focus is not just internal, on the team. They focus on the competition as well. Before a game, the coaches prepare a game plan and have the team watch tape of their opponent in order to understand the tendencies and mentally prepare for what's going to happen.
During the game, changes in personnel groups and schemes keep competitors on their toes and allow the team to identify coverages and predict plays. If the offense realizes a play has been predicted, they call an audible based on what they see in front of them. Coaches from different hierarchies work in tandem to respond faster to new problems.
After the game, the film is reviewed in detail. Each person gets a grade on each play, and the coaches make notes for each person about what they did well and what they could do better.
Think about it ... everyone knows what game they are playing ... and for the most part, everybody understands the rules and how to keep score (and even where they are in the standings). Even the coaches get feedback based on performance, and they look to others for guidance.
Imagine how easy that would be to do in business. Imagine how much better things could be if you did those things.
Challenge accepted.
And, in celebration of a Cowboys win ... here's me doing a cartwheel. I'm sure my body will feel great tomorrow ...
Some Professors put together IKEA-inspired instructional booklets for their algorithms and data-structures lectures. The idea was to make easy-to-understand explanations by removing words, and only using images. Ideally, this would allow them to be understood regardless of their native language or culture.
This is a pretty cool idea, or at least I thought so. My youngest son said, "I don't particularly understand IKEA directions or algorithms .... so this is basically the worst of both worlds for me." Finally, we agree about something!
Hopefully, you find it helpful. If not, there's always Wikipedia.
Predictions for 2024
At the beginning of 2022, I shared VisualCapitalist's predictions for the year, and then at the end of the year, we checked to see how well they did.
Since they posted a 2024 version, I figured, why not do it again?
You can find forecasts anywhere ... but since they're basically guesswork and I don't know what data they are using or excluding, I don't spend much time on them.
That said, I found this infographic easy to look at and think about. So, it's as good a place to start as any. Also, VC draws from a database of 700 expert forecasts to make this chart.
Some are pretty easy to predict - like GenAI's shift to text-to-video. Or, an increase in lawsuits and regulations around AI. Others are questionable. In the past few months, we've seen TikTok investing heavily in the growth of its e-commerce business. Insiders have stated they believe they're trying to compete with Amazon. We'll see how that goes?
On a positive note, it seems like most are predicting positive effects on the market & economy, including a decrease in inflation and interest rates, bonds on the way back, and record highs in the S&P 500.
I'd love to hear your predictions. What do you think?
Posted at 05:52 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Film, Ideas, Just for Fun, Market Commentary, Science, Television, Trading, Trading Tools, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
Reblog (0)