Capitalogix

Merry Chrismakkuh

Today is Christmas ... and it is also the last night of Chanukah.  So, Merry Christmas and Happy Chanukah!  And Happy Festivus to anyone who doesn't celebrate either. 

For those that don't know, Chanukah is the Jewish festival of lights.  This is the holiday that involves lighting the Menorah (Chanukah candles), eating latkes (potato pancakes), exchanging gifts, playing spin the Dreidel (a gambling game), and enjoying a sense of family togetherness for eight days and nights.

That's a long time, right?!  Well, sometimes it seems even longer with my family. 

To help you stay in the right mood, here is a video of "The Chanukah Song," performed by comedian Adam Sandler on Saturday Night Live.  It became an instant classic (and he has since released a second, third, and fourth version.)

Here is the video.  And, if you're feeling left out - here's Adam Sandler's Christmas Song.

The cynic in me believes merchants invented the gift part of the holiday.

Regardless, the Capitalogix team has been festive, and the office has been filled with holiday cheer.  Here is a picture that some of the team took after our ugly sweater contest.

I hope you're having a wonderful celebration surrounded by people you love and food that would make your cardiologist feel safe buying a new Porche.

OpenAI's ChatGPT is Pretty Cool

One of my go to claims about AI is that it can do almost anything ... but it can't do everything. Specific AI systems are becoming incredibly robust. Last year, I wrote an article emphasizing how big of a jump GPT-3 was from past language processors.  I also shared a Seinfeld sketch created by GPT-3 that was so good it was almost unimpressive ... it just felt like a Seinfeld sketch. 

It feels like every week, there's a new breakthrough in pop AI. OpenAI just released ChatGPT (for free) to the public. The promise of ChatGPT is to give a cogent reply to conversational discussions. It can help you code, it can write a poem, can answer your questions, and more. The code it produces is stellar, and it can even create a convincing romantic comedy using characters from various famous shows. It does a lot very well, but it does have some failings. 

ChatGPT via OpenAI

 

GPT-3 is 100x bigger than any previous language AI model and comes pre-trained on 45TB of training text (499 billion words). It cost at least 4.6 million US dollars (some estimated as high as $12 million) to train on GPUs. The resulting model has 175 billion parameters. This was impressive enough, but ChatGPT is actually not based on GPT-3 but GPT3.5 an even more robust model that improved on the ability to answer in a way that feels natural. 

ChatGPT can talk about almost any topic you can think of, and even create prose that feels human; however, it's not perfect yet. 

Unfortunately, this chatbot fails in many of the same ways as its predecessors. To start, it can present false information as true because it's essentially a "stochastic parrot" basing its answers on statistical regularities in its data sources, not on an actual understanding of the world. As well, a lot of its answers can include meaningless fluff that sounds good but doesn't actually answer the question meaningfully ... almost like a high schooler that forgot to read the book before writing an essay. It also can't produce ASCII art despite the advancements in AI art we've recently discussed. 

Regardless of ChatGPTs faults, it's a very impressive piece of software. It can answer trivia like Google, write poetry and dialogue, it can pretend to engage in philosophic discussion, and it can help you correct your code or improve your writing. 

Here's a sonnet I had it write about Artificial Intelligence:

AI, the future's shining light,
A force that shapes our world anew,
A source of endless possibility,
A tool that cuts our burdens in two.

From language translation to deep learning,
AI's capabilities are vast and grand,
It helps us solve problems, find solutions,
And gives us new ways to understand.

But with great power comes great responsibility,
As AI transforms our world and lives,
We must ensure that it's used ethically,
That it helps, rather than subverts or deprives.

So let us embrace this technological marvel,
And use it wisely, for the common good,
For AI has the power to unravel
Our deepest mysteries, as well as hurdles.

 

It does what it is supposed to do very well. It is much more conversational and robust than previous chatbots. Obviously, it doesn't do everything well, and I doubt a chatbot will any time soon. Nonetheless, it is a step forward … and it will create ripples of progress.

What do you think?

Another AI Art Gimmick

There's a new trend of AI-generated profile pictures - using tools like avatar.ai.

Below are some sample results my son, Zach, got after downloading an iPhone app called Lensa.  The company that makes it also offers a product called Prisma that is worth looking at as well.  He paid $4 within Lensa to generate these AI photos (for context, avatar.ai charges more than 5x as much).  He uploaded 17 photos from different angles (and with different expressions), and the app promised 50 pieces from 4 styles.

What do you think of the results?  I thought some of them were surprisingly good. 

 

Some were not so good ... (or at least outside my zone of artistic preferences).

After seeing his, I'll admit I got curious and made my own. 

 

To be honest, these apps are still volatile ... meaning, sometimes they are good enough to seriously impress – but they also can underwhelm from time to time.  Check out DALL-E for more examples of the dynamic range of possibilities and results.

Regardless, I am impressed with AI art's progress and momentum.  Recently, generative AI has gotten a lot of hate (along with the hype), nonetheless, people are talking about it (meanwhile AI art is still not as polarizing as Kanye). 

The reality is, most of these tools still are an elegant use of brute force.  Nonetheless, I am bullish.  Hardware and software are getting better ... and when fed more data, generative art depictions get better as well. 

The uses continue to get more elegant and complex as time passes ... but we're still coding the elegance. 

For more on this topic: 

• Dall-E and AI-Generated Art 
• AI editing underwater photography
• AI evaluates how normal your face is
• On deepfakes and fake news
• Bruce Willis and AI movie characters

The Social Media Universe

We recently dove into what's happening at Twitter. Since that article, Elon wrote an ultimatum e-mail to his employees saying that if they wanted to stay, they would have to work harder and longer than before ... and that they would get three months severance if they chose to leave. In a result that might have surprised Elon, thousands of Twitter employees quit.  In response, Elon locked the doors, cut badge access, and attempted some damage control.

On top of that, you also have Meta having its own issues. 

With that, it's probably a good time to take a look at the social media landscape.  Here is an infographic that shows the relative popularity of various social media properties. 

 

via visualcapitalist

If you rank the top 10 social media by monthly users, Twitter isn't even on the list. Nor is it on the list for driving clicks. 

Meta and YouTube top the list - by a mile. 

As well, there's a growing network of smaller social media vying for a spot in the global paradigm, like Parler, Mastodon, or even Onlyfans.

Meaning there's a lot more chaos in the system. 

As always, chaos creates opportunity – in this case, both for new media and for brands to capitalize on the change in trends. 

The question is, will Facebook and Twitter survive the storm, and if not, what will take their place?

What's Up With Twitter?

Everyone knows that Elon Musk was sued by Twitter and 'forced' to buy Twitter for $44B.  Since then, the now-private company has made a lot of confusing decisions. 

To start, Musk publicly announced that the company was hemorrhaging money.  To try and remedy this, he began by firing approximately half the employees.  Key executives were fired.  Later, many more executives left on their own.  After the massive exodus, Elon supposedly reached out to some former employees asking them to come back.  He also ended remote work for employees. 

In an attempt to increase the company's profitability, he announced Twitter Blue, a paid subscription service that would give you a checkmark, and push your content to the top of users' feeds. 

via twitter

Unfortunately, users were quick to abuse the new verification system by pretending to be public figures and even public companies.  As a result, there was real tangible damage to stock prices. 

 via Twitter

Eli Lilly's drop also brought down its competitors.  Other companies got hit, including Lockheed Martin. 

Do you think those are the most influential 8 dollars ever spent in history?

As a result of the turmoil, advertisers are leaving Twitter in droves, and Twitter has paused Twitter Blue in America – though it remains up in some different geographies. 

On the surface, it looks like Twitter is being run into the ground.  It seems like Musk is throwing a lot of darts at the board and seeing what sticks.  He said as much when he promised that Twitter would do many dumb things as part of his strategy to innovate and find smart things to do.

Are the foibles simply the cost of the innovation needed to revitalize the company ... or signs of trouble for Twitter's future?

Even though I'm prone to bet on Musk, I think it's too early to believe you can predict the outcome.

What do you think?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 16th, 2022

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Are Rats With Human Brain Cells Still Just Rats? (TechReview)
• What's Next If SpaceX Won't Fund Starlink in Ukraine? (NewScientist)
• 9 Astonishing Ways that Living Standards Have Improved Around the World. (BT)
• A Student Asked Her Cosmology Professor the Meaning of Life. Here Was His Response. (BigThink)
• 44% of the Top 100 Public Companies Use Blockchain Amid Growing Institutional Adoption. (FinBold)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• China's Semiconductor Industry 'Decapitated Overnight' — What 'Annihilation Looks Like'. (Benzinga)
• SPAC Sponsors Were Winners Even on Losers. (Wall Street Journal)
• Rent Going Up? One Company's Algorithm Could Be Why. (ProPublica)
• The World's Largest Academic Endowment Fund Lost Money for the First Time in Six Years. (Quartz)
• Volume of Options Traded on the S&P 500 Hits a Record High; Indications of a Market Bottom? (FinBold)

 

 

The Swish Machine

Rube Goldberg machines impress me more often than not. Here's a 70-step outdoor machine that covers a lot of ground ... all to put a basketball in a hoop. It took a month to create, and another month to get working. 

 

via Creezy

I love stuff like this because it reminds me of life. Looking backward, you see how all the pieces go together. As you're going through it, it feels random and sometimes like you're moving backward or that your effort isn't directly contributing to your goal.

Nonetheless, it all comes together in the end.

Onwards!  

Bruce Willis Deepfake: The Smart Decision?

Bruce Willis is a legend of cinema, and he made many of my favorite movies of the 80s and 90s. He stayed relevant and exciting up until very recently. 

Then, last year, he started releasing a slew of disappointing "straight-to-DVD" style movies that had him receiving his own award show category in the Razzies (an award show for the worst performances of the year). In 2021, they created the category "worst performance by Bruce Willis in a 2021 movie." 

Vulture did an interesting interview with the founders of the Razzies where Bruce Willis comes up. 

Then, it came out that Bruce Willis was diagnosed with Aphasia and was losing his ability to speak. 

Suddenly, these pieces take on new meaning. They're Bruce getting as much work in as he can before he loses his voice permanently. He's trying to do what he knows how to do to make sure his wife and children are taken care of after he can no longer act. 

It doesn't make the movies suddenly "great" but it was enough to get the Razzies to rescind their award. 

I don't believe these last films of his dampen his well-earned legacy. 

Last year, his digital twin showed up in a Russian telecom ad. 

 

 
Recently, he's been in the news again for having sold his likeness to a deepfake company. It was reported on the company's website and by The Telegraph, but there are now claims to the contrary as well. 

While the jury is still out on if his rights have been sold, I think it's likely you'll see more Bruce Willis deepfake content. 

The question becomes, is it the right decision?

If his estate still has final approval - and there is quality control - then what's the harm?

Does the potential ubiquity, or the idea that we can always have another Bruce Willis movie, reduce the value of his movies?

Does allowing deepfakes in cinema (on TV or in film) take away roles from actors who might become stars?

We've already seen actors use deepfakes to reprise a role they did when they were younger - like Luke Skywalker or Leia from Star Wars. It's a different idea to build a new series around an actor who isn't actually acting in it. 

These questions pair well with the discussion around AI-generated art and whether it should be considered art. 

What do you think? 

Insight Into The Past ...

Many people focus on the gap between their ideal goal and their current state.  The result is often painful.  In contrast, focusing on the progress made from where you started often results in a sense of accomplishment, hope, and momentum.

With that in mind …. Have you ever wondered what it was like to be a housewife in the 1950s? No? 

Nonetheless,  sometime around the 1950s, Good Housekeeping put out this "helpful" timeline for managing a small servantless house. 

When do they shower?  

And how did they accomplish that without modern gadgets and appliances (like coffee makers, microwaves, dishwashers, Roombas, Amazon, Door Dash, home automation, etc.)

Sometimes it is good to suck less!

Living Longer And Healthier

I am on my way back from Dave Asprey’s BioHacking Conference.

I enjoy going and being exposed to people and products committed to life extension and regenerative medicine.  

Here are some of the things I found interesting and useful.

• SleepMe
• Eng’s NanoVi
• BrainTap
• Hapbee
• Viome
• Carol AI Bike
• PowerPlate
• RapidRelease
• Zona
• BEAM Minerals

I own and use every product on the list above. One of my biggest insights from this year’s conference was that I already have great stuff. I have to remember to use it. Some of the stuff is terrific. I know it is. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t sit unused in a room upstairs (or in a box under my stairs). The scary thing is that I know better.  Now I have to do better!

Each year I get a little bit more focused on what I can be doing to get more out of my time and to increase the quantity of time left.

Even with a renewed focus on health, it isn’t always easier. As my friend Ben Hardy says, Willpower Doesn’t Work – you have to identify goals that are bigger than yourself, create consequences and rewards for achieving or failing to achieve those goals, and change your environment to make success easy.  

I don’t just want to be healthier to increase my time on earth, but to better support my family, my business, and to create a positive impact on those around me. 

When you have a vision of who you want to be, and what you want to accomplish, achieving your goals becomes a lot easier. 

When the goal is health, there are definitely some decisions that are proven to help. You can click to see the image in full-size. 

via informationisbeautiful

On top of the science, here are some of my anecdotal opinions on living longer, healthier, and better:

• Losing weight is as simple as calories in, calories out. It doesn’t matter if you’re on keto or eating only twinkies if you can keep your calories ingested below your calories burned. An equally simple alternative is to consider whether what you are about to eat, drink, or do is “cleansing” or “clogging”.  We already know better!
• Getting enough water and sleep are tips echoed so much that they get annoying. Nonetheless, they are true and help significantly. 
• In life, and in diets, shortcuts end up hurting you long-term more than they help you short-term.  If something is worth doing, it is usually worth doing right.
• Living “right” doesn’t mean you can’t let loose … it means that it’s the exception instead of the rule. If your lifestyle doesn’t let you have fun with your friends or family, it’s probably not the healthiest lifestyle. Mental health is just as important as physical health.  From my perspective, deprivation or repression are far less effective or sustainable than delayed gratification.

I’d love to hear your favorite “trick” to living better. Feel free to send me an e-mail. 

Thanks! Live Long and Prosper!