Capitalogix

A Look At The Best Athletes

There is a huge difference between good and great.

Apparently, there is often a huge difference between the great and the greatest.

In sports, there are many fantastic athletes whose names we will remember.  Then there are the athletes who stand apart from the rest ... like Michael Phelps or Usain Bolt. 

I recently stumbled upon a few charts highlighting the stratification between the top 1% and the #1. 

Tom Brady

via NY Times

To put that statistic in perspective, no other quarterback has even played in 35 postseason games ...  but that is another measure of Tom Brady's greatness. 

Jerry Rice

sdbernard via Reddit

Some prominent names are missing from this list - like Julio Jones or Megatron - but, clearly, Jerry's performance stands apart from other legends of the game.  For context, Julio Jones only had 61 TDs, which is relatively low on this chart, but averages 92 yards per game ... which is so high that he'd be off the chart. 

Wayne Gretzky

via NumberHound

Wayne Gretzky is a sports legend, but this chart really puts it in perspective.  Leader by a large margin in both assists and goals.  He also has one of my favorite quotes -

“A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.”

Here's another interesting Wayne Gretzky stat: 

Together, Wayne and Brent hold the NHL record for most combined points by two brothers - 2,857 for Wayne and 4 for Brent,^[2] and are second overall in points scored by any number of brothers (behind the six brothers of the Sutter family who combined for 2,934 NHL points - 73 more than Wayne and Brent, although the Gretzkys' combined totals are greater than any five of the six Sutters.) - Wikipedia on Brent Gretzky

Serena Williams 

via Yahoo!Sports

What about Nature versus Nurture?

Genetics and upbringing might play a part in greatness.  There are several great sibling combos like the Gretzkys, the Mannings, and the Williams sisters. 

Both Venus and Serena are dominant athletes, but Serena is in the running for one of the most dominant athletes in any sport. 

Have you seen any other crazy stats like these?  I'd love to see them. 

Don't Touch That Dial

History may not repeat itself exactly ... but it often rhymes. News stories, however, seem to replicate.

There is nothing wrong with your television. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are now controlling the transmission. We control the horizontal and the vertical. We can deluge you with a thousand channels or expand one single image to crystal clarity and beyond. We can shape your vision to anything our imagination can conceive. - The Outer Limits (1963)

 

via YouTube

It almost feels like an episode of Black Mirror, watching these stations quote the same pre-determined diatribe on fake news and its danger to our democracy.

The very message they are purportedly supporting, in the video above, directly contradicts their actions. 

Most people realize this happens to some degree, but it seems different when presented like this.

I believe I am reasonably aware and somewhat immune from propaganda. That probably isn't as true as I'd like to believe.

Meanwhile, Sinclar Broadcast Group owns nearly 200 stations in 80 different markets and wants to buy more. That is a powerful platform to deliver mass messages and influence the zeitgeist of its audience.

It used to be true that winners wrote history (think empires, wars, etc.). Now, the one that delivers the most broadcast narratives shapes the emotional and seemingly logical responses to what we perceive to be happening around us.

The result impacts elections, financial markets, buying choices, and countless other areas of our life. 

We see and hear it every day about politics, wars, economic issues, and many other things we don't focus on enough to notice.

As A.I., Bots, and social media grow, our ability to discern truth from 'truthiness' weakens. Especially with the growth of deepfakes. 

What do you think about this?

The OODA Loop: Making Fast Decisions

I recently came across an interesting technique that fighter pilots use to make fast and accurate decisions in high-stakes situations. 

The Air Force calls it an OODA Loop.

It is an iterative feedback model designed by Colonel John Boyd that serves as a foundation for rational thinking in chaotic situations like dogfights.

It stands for Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. 

via Wikipedia

Why do people use decision models?  Obviously, to make better decisions.  But really, they use models to create a process that avoids many of the mistakes or constraints that prevent good decisions.

You make countless decisions every day - and at a certain point, you reach decision fatigue. It can be harder to make decisions when you are tired, after you've made too many, or when the intensity of the environment distracts or drains you. 

It's one of the reasons I rely on artificial intelligence. Here are some others. 

• Best practice becomes standard practice. 
• It accounts for signal and noise.
• It attempts to quantify or otherwise make objective assessments, comparisons, and choices. 
• And, it often gives you a better perspective by letting you apply and compare different models or decision techniques to achieve the desired outcome.

Nonetheless, many algorithms are dynamic and adaptive automation of processes or strategies that humans have used successfully before.

So, let's take a closer look at the OODA Loop, which stemmed from analyzing many interactions between and among fighter pilots during battle and training. 

Observe

The first step is to observe the situation to build the most accurate and comprehensive picture possible. The goal is to take in the whole of the circumstances and environment. It's not enough to observe and collect information, you must process the data and create useful meaning. 

It's the same with data collection for an AI system. Ingesting or collecting data isn't enough. You have to be able to apply the data for it to become useful. 

Orient

This step is less intuitive but very important. When you orient yourself, you're recognizing strength, weakness, opportunity, and threat to identify how changing the dimensionality or perspective alters the outcome. 

It's reconnecting with reality in the context of your cognitive biases, your recent decisions, and more. Have you received new information since starting?

I think of this as carrying a map and pulling out a compass while exploring new lands. Sometimes you need to remember where you started, and sometimes you need to make sure you're going where you think you are. 

Decide

The last two steps provide the foundation for taking action. When there are multiple decisions in front of you, observing and orienting help you choose wisely. 

In business and with AI, you can go through these loops multiple times. 

Act 

The best-made plans mean nothing if you don't act on them. Once you've taken action, you can reobserve, reorient, and keep moving forward. 

Conclusion

Like most good mental models, The OODA loop works in many situations and industries.

Speed is often a crucial competitive advantage. For example, knowing (and taking decisive action) while others are still guessing (and taking tentative action) is something I call time arbitrage. 

Said another way, you make progress faster by walking in the right direction than by running in the wrong direction. 

These processes (and technology) also help us grow more comfortable with uncertainty and uncomfortableness. Markets are only getting more volatile. Uncertainty is increasing. But, when you have the ability to adapt and respond, you can survive and thrive in any climate. 

Happy Mother's Day

 To those of you with young children, here's a peek into your future.

After years of hard work and your best efforts (OK, mostly your best efforts) ... I predict that your adorable bundles of joy will someday wish they could send you this card.

So, take a moment to think about your Mom ... and remember that she was very young when she did those things to you ...

... and what you make them mean is up to you.

Here's a funny clip from SNL in honor of Mother's Day.

 

via SNL

Hope you celebrated all the important mothers in your life. And, to the mothers, I hope the people around you recognize how much you sacrificed for them. 

Happy Mother's Day. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 1st, 2022

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• What is Web 3.0? Here's What the Internet Will Look Like In the Future. (LaptopMag)
• Amazing Video Shows a Tiny Jumping Robot Like Nothing You've Ever Seen. (BGR)
• 103 Bits of Advice I Wish I Had Known. (Kevin Kelly’s Technium)
• Does (Hand) Size Matter? Inside the NFL Draft's Fear of Tiny-Handed QBs. (GQ)
• This $2 Billion Personal Submarine is So Huge that It Can Dwarf a MegaYacht. the Vessel is Almost Three Times Longer Than a Football Field, It Has Lavish VIP Suites, a Helipad and Even an Open Deck Swimming Pool. (LL)

 

Trading Links:

• Bored Ape Metaverse Frenzy Raises Millions, Disrupts Ethereum. (Bloomberg)
• Can Capitalism Survive? 80 Years After Schumpeter's Answer. (AIER)
• Americans are Showing Inflation Fatigue, and Some Companies See a Breaking Point. (FoxBusiness)
• Foreclosure Filings are Up 132% From a Year Prior. Here's What that Means for the Housing Market (And It's Not What You Might Think). (MarketWatch)
• Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger Called Out Stock-Market Gamblers, Dismissed Bitcoin as Worthless, and Underlined the Risks of Inflation. Here are Their 12 Best Quotes from Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Meeting. (Markets)

How I Got Started In Artificial Intelligence

Recently, I've had several people ask about how I got into AI. 

There are a couple of different answers, but I shot a video to go through the main points. 

 

Click here for a transcript

You could argue that I got my start in AI with my most recent company - Capitalogix - which started almost 20 years ago. You could also say that my previous company - IntellAgent Control - was an early AI company, and that's where I got my start.  By today's standards, the technology we used back then was too simple to call AI ... but at the time, we were on the cutting edge.

You could go further back and say it started when I became the first lawyer in my firm to use a computer, and I fell in love with technology. 

As I look back, I've spent my whole life on this path.  My fascination with making better decisions, taking smarter actions, and a commitment to getting better results probably started when I was two years old (because of the incident discussed in the video).

Ultimately, the starting point is irrelevant. Looking back, it seems inevitable. The decisions I made, the people I met, and my experiences ... they all led me here.

However, at any point in the journey, if you asked, "Is this where you thought you'd end up?" I doubt that I'd have said yes. 

I've always been fascinated by what makes people successful and how to become more efficient and effective. In a sense, that's what AI does. It's a capability amplifier. 

When I switched from being a corporate securities lawyer to an entrepreneur, I intended to go down that path. 

Artificial Intelligence happened to be the best vehicle I found to do that. It made sense then, and it makes sense now.

I wouldn't have it any other way. 

Onwards!

Spring and Rebirth

For Jews, Friday was the first night of Passover, a family-centric holiday that recounts the biblical story of the Exodus of the ancient Israelites from Egypt into the Promised Land. For me, it's a reminder to appreciate what we have – and how we stand on the shoulders of those who came before us. 

For Christians, today is Easter - the holiday honoring Jesus's resurrection. 

The overlap can be seen in DaVinci's Last Supper, a Passover Seder, and Jesus's last meal before his Crucifixion.  

For Jews, a notable part of the ritual dinner is recounting each of the ten plagues inflicted upon Biblical Egypt and saying, "Never again."

Last year, I joked that maybe COVID-19 should be added to the list. 

And, just like the Jews making it through slavery, the plagues, and 40 years wandering through the wilderness and desert before entering the Promised Land ... We are finally approaching the promise of life post-COVID.

Of course, other global events remind us that while the world and our capabilities continue to improve and expand ... human nature stays maddeningly the same.

With the coming of spring, the return to normalcy, and the reminders from the stories of Exodus and Easter - it's a great time to do a mental and physical "spring cleaning". Mine your experiences for the things you want to keep doing (or continue not doing) as things go back to "normal".  

Hope you celebrated with family, food, and a reverence for all the blessings around you. 

Global Happiness Levels in 2022

Happiness is a complex concept comprised of conditions that highlight positive emotions over negative ones – bolstered by the support of comfort, freedom, wealth, and other things people aspire to experience. 

Regardless of how hard it is to describe (let alone quantify) ... humans strive for happiness.

Likewise, it is hard to imagine a well-balanced and objective "Happiness Report" because so much of the data required to compile it seems subjective and requires self-reporting. 

Nonetheless, the World Happiness Report takes an annual look at quantifiable factors (like health, wealth, GDP, and life expectancy) and more intangible factors (like social support, generosity, emotions, and perceptions of local government and businesses).  Click the image below to view the Report.

via visualcapitalist

In their 2021 report, there was a significant focus on the effect of COVID-19 on happiness levels and mental health. Much of that continued into the 2022 report. 

As you might expect, the pandemic caused a significant increase in negative emotions reported. Specifically, there were substantial increases in reports of worry and sadness across the ninety-five countries surveyed.  The decline in mental health was higher in groups prone to disenfranchisement or other particular challenges – e.g., women, young people, and poorer people. 

It is remarkable how resilient and stable the scores have been globally considering the amount of uncertainty, stress, and disruption households experienced this past year.

Ultimately, humans persevered in the face of economic insecurity, anxiety, and challenges to mental and physical health. 

This year, the average score improved slightly compared to 2021 - though worry and stress have continued to rise. 

There has been a decrease in overall happiness compared to pre-pandemic scores.  Yet, the relative balance demonstrated in the face of such adversity may point towards the existence of a hedonic treadmill - or a set-point of happiness.

Regardless of the circumstances, people can focus on what they choose, define what it means to them, and choose their actions.

I'm still surprised by what people can get used to ... and how some people find pockets of joy in even the hardest of times.  Conversely, other people use the same ability to feel profound unhappiness, even when they have seemingly everything. 

It's an oddly beautiful reminder that happiness comes from within.

Another bright spot, worth mentioning, has been the massive global upsurge in benevolence. People are supporting others, communities have stepped up, more money is being donated to charity, and more people are volunteering. 

Onwards!

How Many Humans Have Lived?

Despite news of declining birth rates, the world’s population continues to grow because of advances in science, technology, and medicine.

We're nearing a global population of eight billion people. 

There have never been as many people alive as there are now.  But have you ever wondered how many humans have lived on this planet, in total, over the long arc of history?

 

via visualcapitalist

The number takes a lot of estimation, but you end up with approximately 109 billion people over the course of human existence. 

That means almost 7% of all humans who have ever existed are alive today.  It also means that for every person alive, nearly 14 people are dead.  That number seems small to me as I think about how many generations came before us.

While this might be somewhat interesting, the more important question is what you will do with the time left in your hourglass?  To learn more about what I think about that, here's an article I wrote on the time value of time and here's an article I wrote on the power of purpose and how healthy mindsets extend your life. 

The Power of Purpose

Here is a chart you might find interesting.  It shows the longevity of the founding fathers of the United States.

Take a closer look.  The chart highlights something important.

via Dan Sullivan, Strategic Coach

During the time in question, males had an expected lifespan of between 35 and 40 years.  In stark contrast, the founding fathers lived more than twice that long (except for Alexander Hamilton, who made the bad decision to embrace dueling).

I don’t believe this chart shows the disparity of “Haves” and “Have Nots”.  Instead, it shows the importance of purpose.  The Founding Fathers understood how important their efforts and ideas were (not only to their lives ... but also to the lives of the people who relied on them – and to future generations).  They truly saw a bigger future and their part in its creation.

Common wisdom posits that a lot of longevity comes down to diet and exercise.

 

via SomeEcards

Clearly, sleep and stress management matter too.  With that said, healthy mindsets potentially have the most significant impact on your health, well-being, and longevity.

Mindset Matters.

Dan Sullivan wrote an e-book called “My Plan for Living to 156”.  His message was to stop being nostalgic about the past and anxious about the future.

Most people’s notion about how long they’ll live becomes an oppressive thought.  They feel confined by their expected lifespan, often based on family history and averages.  But what if you could extend your lifetime? What if you could increase the quality of the years you had left? How would adding extra years impact the way you live now?

The goal of living to 156 may sound outrageous.  But in reading this book, you’ll find that imagination can have a huge impact on behavior and accomplishment. And, even if you don't make it to 156, the years you're left with will be better for it. 

You don’t have to actually believe that you will live to 156 (or some other huge number).  Simply adopting a mindset that you have extra time permits you to set longer-term goals and focus on bigger possibilities.  As a result, those mindsets allow you to focus on continued learning and growth, rather than looking for an excuse or an easy off-ramp.

Purpose is a master key!  It gives you direction, capabilities, and confidence.

As I think about these issues, I know that I want to be valuable and interesting to those around me as long as I’m here.  That means I want to be healthy, fit, and vital as well!  The reason?  So I can focus on living ... rather than not dying.

I’ve heard it said many times, in many different ways, but one of the easiest ways to predict your life and lifestyle is to take the average of the five people you spend the most time with.  Consequently, it’s important to surround yourself with people committed to bigger futures!

Likewise, it’s important to set goals and scorecards that keep you focused on what matters and continued progress.

Even if you don’t live until 156, I think it’s important and healthy to live now as if you will!

Onwards.