Human's can't do a lot of things. Honestly, the fact that we're top of the food-chain is pretty miraculous.
We're slow, we're weak, and we're famously bad at understanding large numbers and exponential growth.
Our brains are hardwired to think locally and linearly.
It's a monumental task for us to fathom exponential growth ... let alone its implications.
Think how many companies have failed due to that inability ... Radioshack couldn't understand a future where shopping was done online and Kodak didn't think digital cameras would replace good ol' film. Blockbuster couldn't foresee a future where people would want movies in their mailboxes, because "part of the joy is seeing all your options!" They didn't even make it long enough to see "Netflix and Chill" become a thing.
Innovation is a reminder that you can't be medium-obsessed. Kodak's goal was to preserve memories. It wasn't to sell film. Blockbuster's goal wasn't to get people in their stores, it was to get movies in homes.
Henry Ford famously said: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Steve Jobs was famous for spending all his time with customers, but never asking them what they wanted.
Two of our greatest innovators realized something that many never do. Being conscientious of your consumers doesn't necessarily mean listening to them. It means thinking about and anticipating their wants and future needs.
Tech and A.I. are creating tectonic forces throughout industry and the world. It is time to embrace and leverage what that makes possible. History has many prior examples of Creative Destruction (and what gets left in the dust).
I'm getting cynical, I understand planned obsolescence ... but has it occurred to you that Apple could make their phones act sluggish just before the launch of a new version?
My phone has been driving me nuts. So, (as I write this) I'm up at 2 am to place my order for the new iPhone X.
On one hand, it satisfies my desire for the new and shiny ... but, on the other hand, it makes it harder for my wife.
Buying gifts is often hard. But it gets harder when the giftee already has everything (or buys it himself).
Every year since 1959, Neiman Marcus has published a Christmas Book. Primarily comprised of normal Neiman Marcus offerings ... the book also contains pretty amazing "fantasy" gifts. For example, who doesn't want a rose-gold Cobalt Valkyrie-X private plane (worth $1.5 million) ...
Neiman Marcus
I don't know about you, but it's a little feminine for me.
Or, there is a private Submarine (worth $20,000,000).
Neiman Marcus
But that is only good if you don't have one already.
You can check out NM's 2017 Fantasy Gift List, here, and get a personal trip to Champagne, France or a pair of specially commissioned His and Hers Rolls Royces.
Let me know if you have any good gift ideas. I'm always looking for them.
There's a lot of "hype" these days. Social media and tools like Kickstarter would have you believe that every new idea is the "next big new thing".
In contrast, Gartner's Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies. It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct, contextually understandable, snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit on the hype cycle.
Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like "How will these technologies impact my business?" and "Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?"
What's a "Hype Cycle"?
As technology advances, it is human-nature to get excited about the possibilities we imagine ... and then to get disappointed when those expectations aren't met.
At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where in the product's timeline we are, and how long it will take the technology to hit maturity.
This year, according to Gartner, there are three overarching "mega-trends" to watch.
AI Everywhere shows the transition towards a ubiquitous AI experience, from self-driving cars, to machine learning, and to smart robots. Consider the impact on traffic/accidents with the adoption of autonomous vehicles, or the ability of machine learning to process more data faster.
Transparently Immersive Experiences shows our transition towards human-centric contextual and fluid technological experiences. - like Connected Homes or Virtual Reality. Consider the impact of Augmented Reality on advertisements or gamification.
Digital Platforms shows the transition of emergent platforms into adoption. Platforms like Blockchain, IoT, and Quantum Computing. Consider the effects of bitcoin and other blockchain initiatives, as well as the opportunity for new business models centered around these platforms.
Here is the chart. You can click the image to see it larger.
The hype cycle gives us an idea of which of these technologies will likely survive the market hype and have a potential to become a part of our daily life.
Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts).
Which technologies do you think are over-hyped ... and which ones might survive the hype?
I find this stuff fascinating. Consider some of the interesting technologies just starting their hype cycle:
Human Augmentation has the potential to enhance our bodies and minds using electrical currents, chips, or exoskeletons, but also raises ethical and legal questions.
Smart Dust opens up the possibility of monitoring essentially everything by creating a vast network of minuscule sensors that can detect various inputs.
Normally, we see stores and warehouses organized by section - Cereals, Cheese, Fruit. This makes sense because as humans, it's easier to find everything if it's organized logically for us.
Amazon is changing that.
Their new service, "Prime Now," promises thousands of items delivered to you in around an hour.
That level of immediacy and activity creates an interesting set of logistical problems. For example, how would you organize the warehouse to enable that level of service? The answer might surprise you.
The answer is you don't. If you walked into one of Amazon's PrimeNow warehouses, you'd see a bunch of pods with random items next to each other. You might find cleaning supplies next to a children's toy, or maybe even an adult toy.
While this may seem weird or counter-intuitive ... with numerous "shoppers" all going through the warehouse at the same time, if the warehouse was organized by category or popularity, the result would be traffic jam bottlenecks and less throughput.
By organizing items randomly, and having the list of items ready ahead of time, Amazon's computers can create an optimum path for each "shopper" that takes into account the position of the items, where the checkout is, and where other shoppers are grabbing items.
That optimum path is critical in getting your order on time. This is another example of organized chaos – where human logic (or common sense) is not the most efficient or effective path to an optimal solution.
We're in the midst of a revolution, and no, I don't mean a political one.
Artificial Intelligence has been around since the 1950's. But, we are at an inflection point. It is no longer an "if" ... it is a "when". And the answer is probably "Now!"
AI technologies are expanding into broad and diverse markets.
Artificial Intelligence is no longer seen as a massive R&D effort – it is becoming a core competency.
Here is a chart showing AI adoption in various industries. (replace image with non-blurry one)
While AI is promising on many fronts, this "revolution" elicits fear from many.
For example, Elon Musk told the National Governors Association that the risks posed by A.I. are so great that it needs to be proactively regulated before it's too late.
What about you? Are you afraid of Skynet turning on, becoming self-aware and setting out to destroy the human race.? Or, are you looking to benefit from the new capabilities and possibilities AI creates for us?
In Part 2, I talked about normalizing your habits and picking consistent, normalized metrics. This doesn't just work at the gym; it applies to life and business as well.
Today, I want to explain how and why this helps. To do so, we will talk about controlling your arousal states.
Chemically, most arousal states are the same. Meaning, the same hormones and neurotransmitters that make you feel fear also can make you feel excited. They affect your heart rate, respiration, etc. ... Though, the outside stimuli you experience likely determines how you interpret what is happening.
In most situations, a heart rate of 170 beats per minute is an indicator of extreme danger (or an impending toe-tag). If I felt my heart racing like that in a meeting, it might trigger a fight or flight instinct. I prefer conscious and controlled responses. So, I train myself to recognize what I can control and to respond accordingly.
One way I do that is by being mindful of heart rate zones during exercise.
My goal is to get as close to 170 bpm as I can, then stay in that peak zone for as long as possible.
Here is a chart showing a Fitbit readout of a recent exercise session.
As you can see, every time I reach my limit ... I get my heart rate back down. It becomes a conscious and controlled learned behavior.
It's a form of biofeedback; it's not only gotten me better at controlling what happens after my heartrate reaches 170 but at identifying when I'm close even without a monitor.
Now, when my heart rate is at 170 bpm(regardless of the situation), I don't feel anxious ... I think about what I want to do.
This is a very useful tool.
It's the same with trading ... Does a loss or error harsh your mellow – or is it a trigger to do what you are supposed to do.
Getting used to normalized risk creates opportunity.
When you are comfortable operating at a pace, or in an environment, that others find difficult – you have a profound advantage and edge.
Can You Afford To Think Linearly in this Exponential Age?
Human's can't do a lot of things. Honestly, the fact that we're top of the food-chain is pretty miraculous.
We're slow, we're weak, and we're famously bad at understanding large numbers and exponential growth.
Our brains are hardwired to think locally and linearly.
It's a monumental task for us to fathom exponential growth ... let alone its implications.
Think how many companies have failed due to that inability ... Radioshack couldn't understand a future where shopping was done online and Kodak didn't think digital cameras would replace good ol' film. Blockbuster couldn't foresee a future where people would want movies in their mailboxes, because "part of the joy is seeing all your options!" They didn't even make it long enough to see "Netflix and Chill" become a thing.
via Diamandis
Human perception is linear. Technological growth is exponential.
There are many examples. Here is one Diamandis calls "The Kodak Moment."
In 1996, Kodak was at the top of its game, with a market cap of over $28 billion and 140,000 employees.
Few people know that 20 years earlier, in 1976, Kodak had invented the digital camera. It had the patents and the first-mover advantage.
But that first digital camera was a baby that only its inventor could love and appreciate.
That first camera took .01 megapixel photos, took 23 seconds to record the image to a tape drive, and only shot in black and white.
Not surprisingly, Kodak ignored the technology and its implications.
Fast forward to 2012, when Kodak filed for bankruptcy – disrupted by the very technology that they invented and subsequently ignored.
via Diamandis
Innovation is a reminder that you can't be medium-obsessed. Kodak's goal was to preserve memories. It wasn't to sell film. Blockbuster's goal wasn't to get people in their stores, it was to get movies in homes.
Henry Ford famously said: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Steve Jobs was famous for spending all his time with customers, but never asking them what they wanted.
Two of our greatest innovators realized something that many never do. Being conscientious of your consumers doesn't necessarily mean listening to them. It means thinking about and anticipating their wants and future needs.
Tech and A.I. are creating tectonic forces throughout industry and the world. It is time to embrace and leverage what that makes possible. History has many prior examples of Creative Destruction (and what gets left in the dust).
Opportunity or Chaos ... You get to decide.
Onward!
Posted at 02:44 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Gadgets, Ideas, Market Commentary, Religion | Permalink | Comments (0)
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