Capitalogix

Elon Musk and His Self Driving Cars

While self-driving cars seem like a relatively new invention, the reality is that the earliest autonomous self-driving cars existed in the early 1980s (non-autonomous versions and semi-workable experiments have existed since the 1920s). 

Luckily, the standards and approach have gotten much better since then, and we continue to make massive strides. Recently, Elon Musk stated that he was confident that level 5 self-driving cars would exist by the end of this year. That would mean the need for a steering wheel or a driver's seat would be next to 0 - a luxury even. 

 

via Stein Law

According to many AI experts, this is exciting because level 5 autonomy is not just difficult - it's near impossible. 

Think of it from a human perspective. When we're driving, many minute decisions happen instantaneously and without much trouble. But some of those decisions are "subjective" and seemingly novel. We know the answer because we intuit the answer - not because it's following any specific rule. 

For a car to reach level 5 autonomy, it would have to be pre-trained for essentially every possible situation they could encounter - no matter how rare. 

Elon Musk is famous for his potentially antagonizing beliefs and predilection for extreme statements ... but will Tesla somehow solve these problems?

Is AI about to pass another hurdle already?

It's exciting stuff! As someone that hates long drives, I'm certainly ready for it. I can also envision a future where the norm is autonomous driving, and individuals that want the right to drive their cars themselves will have to pass extra tests, pay extra fees, and warn the autonomous cars that it's a human at the wheel. 

The History of Innovation Cycles

In today's environment of rapid change, innovation is a topic worthy of increased thought, action, and discussion

Here are some articles worth a look to get started:

• Can You Afford To Think Linearly In This Exponential Age? 
• Gartner's 2020 Hype Cycle For Emerging Technologies
• Getting To Next: How Thoughts Become Things

Too often, people view Innovation through the lens of today (meaning, they evaluate where things are in relation to their hype cycle or adoption model. While helpful, these methods focus on shorter-term trends.  Sometimes, a longer view helps too. 

Let's look at the pace of innovation, and how the long waves of innovation are truncating faster. 

 

via Visual Capitalist

The theory behind these long waves of innovation is based on creative destruction. To summarize a complex theory, as markets are disrupted, a few key clusters of industries have a major effect on the economy and the future structure of society.

An easy-to-understand example is that as railways proliferated, urban growth happened around stations. To a lesser extent, it happened with aviation as well.

The most recent example would be the transition of businesses online. I think it's likely that the COVID pandemic moved forward the timeline for the 6th wave considerably, as individuals get used to a new normal. 

Despite the pain and challenges of new technologies, each of these waves brought economic growth and improved living standards. 

ESG and green tech are becoming more important (and, perhaps, a driver of the 6th wave).  Nonetheless, I think the major movers will be AI and the decreasing divide between digital and physical.

In many respects, I believe AI will terraform the world similarly to how electricity (or the Internet) did - but in much less time. 

What do you think? 

Learning To Live (and Work) With Millennials

Simon Sinek is a best-selling author (Start With Why) and gave a Ted Talk on how great leaders inspire action (that got 30 million views). 

In an interview with Tom Bilyeu (co-founder of Quest Nutrition), he addresses the issue of managing Millennials – and why they seem lazy, entitled, and unfocused.

 

via Inside Quest

Sinek points to four characteristics that help "create" this issue:

• Parenting,
• Technology,
• Impatience, and
• Environment.

Sinek suggests that this generation is a product of failed parenting strategies ... being told they're special without effort, being told they can have anything they want, and being handed trophies for showing up.

Next, add technology to the mix.

Before millennials, interaction happened in person much more frequently ... meaningful trust-based relationships were built with time and effort, and when you were at dinner with friends or watching a movie, you were living in the moment, not distracted by your phone.

For added irritation, next add impatience (which is a byproduct of instant gratification).  

Why wait for amusement when it's a text away?  You've got Netflix making video rental a thing of the past, Tinder making dating as easy as "swiping right" and Amazon making it so you don’t have to check out when you go to a store.

Is it any wonder that these kids have short attention spans? Now imagine the Gen Z kids forced into quarantine where their only companionship was online?

Now put those kids in an environment where they're forced to realize you can't rush success, and you can't force meaningful relationships. Where they have to put in the effort and stay focused for extended periods of time

It's a story that often doesn't have a happy ending.

I thought it would be fun to ask one of them what they thought about it ... So I asked my son, Zachary.  Here are his thoughts.

I was born in 1993. When I was in elementary school, I was already using a computer almost daily, and a lot of my education and entertainment was computer-centric. 

As such, I am a textbook “Millennial.”

I use Snapchat too much, I often relax by playing games on my phone, and I am easily distracted. Because of that, I found this interview with Simon Sinek particularly interesting.

I’m lucky. My dad forced me to work hard and valued my efforts more than my results.  So, while I'm constantly reminded that I'm lucky I'm not working 80-hour days (and being forced to get a haircut every week), I do feel as if I'm a step ahead of many of my peers.

I still find myself falling into a lot of the "traps" Sinek describes – I'm reliant on social media; I'm frustrated when my effort doesn't transfer into immediate impact; and I struggle to not take my phone out whenever there's not another stimulus keeping me occupied. 

That being said, I do think the issue is bigger than millennials. It's not just our generation that takes their phones out at meetings and ignores who they're with for someone on their phone. If you pay attention, I'll bet you'll notice that you do it as well. To me, it seems more like a trapping of the era than of a generation. 

The difference, I think, is that millennials spent their formative years in this environment. This does affect the way we see and interact with the world. But you can watch each generation chastise the youth for the same things as they get older. 

    "This new generation has no respect! They're too reliant on technology, and don't know how to do anything themselves! Lazy and entitled!

I'm positive I can find similar rhetoric levied against Generation X, Boomers, and more. There's always been resistance to new technologies and the belief that the new generation takes what they're blessed with for granted. I even catch myself judging Gen Z for the same things I remember being judged for as a teenager. 

Will we ever measure up to your expectations? Perhaps not ... because our generations approach the world the world so differently.

Nonetheless, we are still capable of greatness.  We are still driven to pursue growth, to create new things, and to provide value to our communities.  It's just that we are playing a different game and keeping score a little differently. 2020 brought a lot of that to the forefront of the conversation. 

Understanding that, in and of itself, can help to close the gap. As we mature and become the main working force, as we become managers and leaders, I think you'll find that a lot of our failings were the symptoms of youth – and have dissipated with age. 

There's plenty more I want to say, but I don't want to go on for too long.   I'm happy to have a more in-depth conversation offline. You can e-mail me at [email protected] with any thoughts on the subject, any questions, or just to say hello. 

Thanks. 

 

 

Humans Need Not Apply

While we all know that pop culture representations of AI aren't accurate - I'm still surprised how often I see people who are against Artificial Intelligence. It seems that many people are focus on science fiction's dystopian depictions of sentience and omniscience, while the reality is exciting (and much less scary). 

In my office, we use a lot of what seems like "futuristic" artificial intelligence approaches to understanding financial markets and enhancing decision-making. Most of my team are technical or data-science specialists that develop and drive the systems that create our systems. Despite the exponential growth of AI and its supporting technologies, I still believe the heart of AI is human.

 

 

Of course, I'm not sure how long that will be true.  But I'd bet it remains true for the next 25 years.

The video below was shot in 2014 and gives a great perspective on how quickly automation, robots, and eventually autonomous robots, are becoming pervasive. 

 

via CGPGrey

Automation used to mean big, bulky machines doing manual and repetitive work. Today, however, automation can land an aircraft, diagnose cancer, and trade. I'm fascinated by what is becoming possible ... and how, even when the A.I. is little more than an elegant use of brute force, incredible results are becoming commonplace.

In many cases, the results coming from machines coding other machines are matching or exceeding the work done by humans. 

And it's only getting better. 

In the past, innovation created new industries or allowed increased scale ... nonetheless, people are worried that the number of jobs the internet and Artificial Intelligence create isn't matching the number of jobs they're making obsolete. 

According to this study, approximately 50% of jobs will be automated by 2034.

Personally, I believe that freeing us to elevate our perspective and do more has always been a boon to society. Electricity put a lot of people out of work as well. Nonetheless, look what it made possible.

To date, human progress has been based on the division of labor. As our society progressed, our jobs have become increasingly specialized. Now, machines will be able to break down complex jobs into simple parts and complete them faster than we can. 

So, yes, the same technology that's currently creating opportunities could eventually put you out of a job ... but it also creates an opportunity for something new.

There's a lot of change coming, and that can be scary, but there's reason to be excited as well.

We live in a golden era of innovation, and we have longer life expectancies than ever before. Humans are immensely adaptable, and I'm sure we'll continue to grow to meet the challenges and opportunities we face. 

The reality is, we've been working symbiotically with "machines" since the very beginning.  Our definition of a "machine" simply continues to improve. It's fractal, and each time the technology we're adopting gets bigger, so does the eventual positive effect on day-to-day life. 

AI adoption is a big step, but the positive effect it can have on our lives is astronomical. 

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 11th, 2021

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Video: Richard Branson's Space Flight Takes Off. (Flipboard)
• Bezos and Branson are Going To Space! Or Maybe Not. (Wired)
• Kosher Lab-Grown Pork from Israel's Growing Cultured Meat Sector. (JPost)
• Death Rates are Declining For Many Common Cancers In the U.S., Report Finds. (StatNews)
• How a Lizard's Venom Inspired the Promising Weight Loss Drug Wegovy. (Vox)

 

Trading Links:

• The Meme Stock Trade is Far From Over. What Investors Need To Know. (Barrons)
• 7 Upcoming IPOs To Watch In the Second Half of 2021. (BankRate)
• For the First Time, the Fed Flags Crypto Prices as a National Financial Risk. (Fortune)
• The S&P 500 Could Drop Sharply in the 3rd Quarter as the '5 P's' Pressure Markets, Bank of America Says. (Markets)
• Shaquille O'Neal Shuts Down the Internet with His Financial Portfolio, Owns Forever 21, Elvis Presley, and Much More. (ABS)

 

Enter The Hivemind

It can be hard to visualize AI.

You might imagine something based on pop culture references of virtual lifeforms with sentience and free will ... but, at least for now, that's far from the truth.

Here's an infographic debunking 8 common AI myths.

Modern AI does many things and has many applications, but it's still relatively primitive. It works in the background, silently collecting vast amounts of data, and performs increasing amounts of work.

AI may not currently compare with the Star Trek character Data, yet it already is transforming our economy at warp speed.  For a recent example, McDonald's is now doing a 10-store pilot replacing their human drive-thru attendants with AI. 

Some current uses of AI and robotics are genuinely impressive.  Here's a video taking you into "The Hive" a supermarket warehouse run by a "Hivemind" AI. With thousands of "bots" and various other forms of AI and technology, this will give you a glimpse of the future of AI and automation. 

via Tom Scott

This system is from Ocado in the UK. If you want more info, here is an article from Forbes about it.

Pretty cool! 

Getting To Next: How Thoughts Become Things

Two weeks ago, I introduced Innovation Activity Centers which are the building blocks for my technology adoption model.

Today, I have a video and a worksheet for you that goes into the overarching Technology Adoption Model Framework. It explains how thoughts become things and how ideas scale with respect to capability, audience, and monetization.

The four base stages of this framework are: Capability –> Prototype –> Product –> Platform. 

It's a great use of 20 minutes. Check it out.

 

 

While the Technology Adoption Model Framework stages are important, the ultimate takeaway is that you don't have to predict what's coming, only how human nature works in response to the capabilities in front of them.

It's a bit cliche, but to paraphrase Wayne Gretzky, you just have to skate to where you think the puck is going to be. 

Desire fuels commerce.  As money fuels progress, desire grows ... and so does the money funding that path. As such, the path forward is relatively easy to imagine.

This isn't about predicting specific technologies, but rather about the capabilities people will want.  I think of it as anticipating the natural path.  It is easier to ride the wave than it is to fight nature.

Each stage is really about the opportunity to scale desire and adoption.

It isn't really about building the technology, rather it is about supporting the desire.

If you understand what is coming, you don't have to build it, but you can figure out where you want to build something that will benefit from it.

This model is fractal.  It works on many levels of magnification or iteration.

What first looks like a product is later seen as a prototype for something bigger.

For example, as a Product transforms into a Platform, it becomes almost like an industry of its own.  Consequently, it becomes the seed for a new set of Capabilities, Prototypes, and Products.

SpaceX's goal to get to Mars feels like their North Star right now ... but once it's achieved, it becomes the foundation for new goals.

This Framework helps you validate capabilities before sinking resources into them. 

In the video, I walk you through several examples of companies, their innovations, and how they fit into each stage. I even used Capitalogix as an example. 

I'm also attaching a fillable PDF of the form we used so that you can run through this with your business as well. 

As I continue to refine and work with this framework, I look forward to improving it and sharing it with you all. 

As the world continues to change faster and more dramatically, this framework will help you anticipate changes, and it will also help you take advantage of them. 

If you have any questions or comments about the idea, or how to implement it, feel free to reach out. 

Onwards! 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - June 6th, 2021

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Benevolent Bots Are Suckers – Why A.I. Should Be Afraid of Us. (NYT)
• Microsoft's First GPT-3 Product Hints at the Commercial Future of OpenAI. (TheNextWeb)
• Netflix Secret Codes: How to Access Hidden TV Shows and Movies on Service. (Independent)
• Physics' Greatest Mystery: Michio Kaku Explains the God Equation. (BigThink)
• Scientists Gene Edit Mice to Live 23 Percent Longer. (Futurism)

 

 

Trading Links:

• Where Did 1.5 Million Cable Customers Go Last Quarter? Here. (MotleyFool)
• Technology Changes - But Fear and Greed Never Do. (HowardLindzon)
• Higher Interest Rates Would Be Good for the Country, Treasury Secretary Yellen Says. (CNBC)
• A Stealthy Growth Correction. (HumbleStudentOfTheMarkets)
• The Future of Money: The Digital Currency Revolution is Here, and May Sweep Away 5,000 Years of Monetary History. (Globe&Mail)

 

 

 

Is Cryptocurrency Here to Stay?

I've always been a fan of Blockchain, but I've always been a bit more cautious of cryptocurrencies. 

Blockchain is the technology foundation behind cryptocurrencies and an important enabling technology for the next generation of technological innovation.

This week Coinbase went public at an astronomical valuation.  They were backed by venture capital firms like Andreessen Horowitz and Union Square Ventures.

This makes sense to me because the VCs were able to capitalize on the "Fear of Missing Out" and "Animal Spirits" driving the market without the concentration risk of a particular cryptocurrency.  In a sense, it is the same reason I am bullish on Blockchain itself.

Making sense of cryptocurrencies, however, is tougher for me to justify. There are over 1000 currencies out there – and the list is growing.  But valuation isn't really about first-mover advantages or features ... You also must consider government policies and regulations and a host of other issues.

Consequently, it's hard to recommend putting money in any coin as an investment.

Speculating (or "trading") is a different conversation. 

Clearly, there is a lot of money being made and lost ... but how much of those gains and losses can be attributed to luck and how much to skill?  A better question is ... If you traded cryptocurrencies, how much of your gains or losses would be due to luck versus skill?

For the past few years, it felt as if the buzz had died down a little. Despite that, Bitcoin prices and many other cryptocurrencies continued to increase in value - though with much more volatility than normal investments. 

This week, Dogecoin (a cryptocurrency that started as a meme) jumped from $.07 a coin to $.35 a coin, capitalizing on press and support from Elon Musk.  But it's not the only cryptocurrency doing well. 

 

via How Much

A lot of the jump in the price of many coins recently coincided with the GameStop trading surge and was likely driven by the sentiment of those same retail traders. 

Crypto's are interesting, in part, because they're a digital currency decentralized over a peer-to-peer network.

The more people are willing to accept it as a medium of exchange, the more valuable it becomes (and the more it becomes a stable store of value).

Supposedly, decentralization provides it safety from censorship and government interference - meaning it has value as an international currency, and as a currency for black-market transactions.  But, in my opinion, that remains to be seen (and I consider it unlikely for most cryptocurrencies).

However, the worth of a Bitcoin clearly isn't just based on sentiment (on one hand, there are desires to avoid fiat currency vagaries, government interventions and scrutiny, while having a fair price discovery method, etc.  ... on the other hand, there are also the costs to mine a Bitcoin, transaction fees, etc. and crypto has recently been under fire for its huge environmental impact).

Compared to a reserve currency – whose worth is primarily influenced by trade value and other macroeconomic factors - watching crypto's volatility can be scary. 

That being said, as adoption increases and more businesses enable it, it's possible that it will continue to legitimize. For the time being, I remain a long-term skeptic because there is too much working against it. 

For an extra laugh, here's a still relevant video from 2017 on why you should invest all your money in Bitcoin. 

 

via AwakenWithJP

 

The Rise of Augmented Reality

Last week, Microsoft won a contract to provide the U.S. army augmented reality ("AR") headsets. It's worth up to $21.9 billion over 10 years, and they'll be providing over 120,000 AR headsets. Porn has been the leader in VR/AR innovation, but it's unsurprising that war is also being used to drive innovation. Human nature is human nature. 

Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality have been around for a long time, but there's been a massive boom in innovation and interest over the last 3-5 years. Not only are the technologies becoming more affordable, but the animation is becoming more realistic, headsets are becoming more portable and longer-lasting, and our physical and virtual realities are beginning to blend. 

We're moving towards a world where technology envelops every aspect of our lives ... figuratively and literally. It's funny because I felt the same way in the late 90s as cell phones and the internet proliferated. It feels quaint in comparison to the ubiquity of technology today. Even our toasters are smart now. 

The following (still fictional) video is thought-provoking. What happens when these new technologies are used to influence behavior, decision-making, and even your identity?  

 

Keiichi Matsuda via  Vimeo

Like many things, these technologies make possible awesome new capabilities (if used well) and horrific consequences (if abused or used in authoritarian ways). 

Your doctor or nutritionist could help you make better choices for yourself. Your therapist or coach could help you perceive and respond differently to the challenges life presents you. Marketers could better influence your purchases. Employers could better monitor and measure your performance and productivity. And governments will not be far behind ... doing what they do. It all toes the line between beneficial and creepy. 

Because of where we are in the adoption curve, it is becoming more common to discuss bioethics and AI ethics.  Likewise, as we accelerate into an age of exponential technologies and mindsets, be prepared for increasing scrutiny of the promise versus the peril of various new technologies and capabilities.

We live in interesting times, and only getting more interesting as it goes!