Capitalogix

Streaming Wars

Streaming services were big winners during the pandemic.  While that wasn't surprising, their subscriber growth and usage surge are impressive.

VisualCapitalist put together an infographic highlighting the numbers. 

 

via VisualCapitalist

I enjoyed the chart, and had a couple of different takeaways: 

• Many companies tried to capitalize on the streaming wave by launching half-baked streaming services, but it's clear that the pioneers are still extending their lead on the fast followers. 
• Despite Netflix already being the industry leader, they saw a 34% increase in 2020. 
• China's largest provider - Tencent Video - only has 120M users, which is about 8% of China's population. In contrast, Netflix has 74M US users, which is about 23% of the population. 
• The New York times is the only News subscription source big enough to make the list, yet it's at the very bottom with 6M users. Though, it did see a 61% increase in 2020. 
• Disney+ grew 95M in its inaugural year, which is a credit to the brand recognition Disney holds.

Interesting stuff and large numbers!

How will the world re-opening impact those numbers?  How about 5 years from now? What do you think?

Will virtual reality and augmented reality start to impact these numbers?

With that much money and on the line, I expect this to remain an industry segment primed for innovation, growth ... and a few surprises.

 

 

Reflecting on The Time Value of Time

I have always believed that you can predict a lot about your future, based on the quality of the people you spend the present with.

That is why I think participation in quality peer groups is critical. 

Over the years, I joined several business-leader peer groups like Strategic Coach,  Abundance 360, or Vistage. These groups are a great way to meet people and learn things ... and they also provide you with access to the benefits of feedback from a group of trusted advisors, perspectives you might otherwise get from a counselor, and a flow of ideas and opportunities that wouldn't have crossed your mind or your desk. They allow participants to see, hear, and discuss things they don't normally think about, talk about, or even notice.

Peer groups are also great at bringing blind spots to your attention and connecting you to trends transforming industries and the world.

In these meetings, you often find a "nugget" in the discussion. Sometimes it stems from what is happening in the world.  Sometimes it alerts you to potentially useful relationships, opportunities, or gadgets.  And sometimes, the nugget comes from discussing a common problem or constraint (like the pandemic) with your peers. 

This week, several of these groups prompted me to think about time (e.g., not wanting to sell time for money, wanting to live past 100, the "strangeness" of time during the past year, etc.). 

Time is funny. Sometimes it seems to fly by ... other times, it seems to stand still. Dan Sullivan uses the example of 10 minutes with a dying loved one compared to holding your hand on a stove for 10 minutes. One seems excruciatingly short, and the other seems excruciatingly long. 

 

zefrank via YouTube

The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.

How many amazing vacations do you have left? How many jaw-dropping moments? How many fantastic meals? How many Super Bowls?

What about time with your parents or older relatives? It's easy to forget to call or miss an important event because "life happens" – but if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person ... doesn't it become more special?

For contrast:

• Would you rather spend that time dwelling on a mistake?
• What about being angry at something out of your control?
• What about doing work that drains you mentally and emotionally?

In my TEDx talk, I mentioned "living like you only have a year left" and how much more "life" we got out of the last part of my dad's life. 

That is just an example, but clearly, it is worth taking the concept further. 

To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, experiences you have that are special and make you feel like your best self. 

• Hitting Flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
• Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
• Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say - "Wow!"
• Making a difference in someone's day or giving back to your community;
• Experiencing peace and relaxation;
• Feeling pure joy.

It's easy to get lost and take for granted these moments when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left ... they take a whole new meaning. 

How can you maximize the time you have left?  Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.

To start, think about different time frames:

• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?

 Make those lists ... it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.

Seriously, try it.  

Let me know how it worked for you – and what you chose! 

 

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 28th, 2021

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Why Teaching Robots to Play Hide-and-Seek Could Be the Key to Next-Gen A.I. (DigitalTrends)
• AI Teaches Itself Diplomacy. (Spectrum)
• What is Web 3.0 and How Will It Help You? (MakeUseOf)
• Highest-Resolution Images of DNA Reveal It's Surprisingly Jiggly. (Gizmodo)
• Salesforce Says the 9-To-5 Workday is Dead' and Will Let Employees Go Fully Remote. (TheVerge)

 

Trading Links:

• Here's How Much Wealth You Need to Join the Richest 1% Globally. (Bloomberg)
• Thousands of Bots May Have Played Role In GameStop Hype. (Benzinga)
• Investors are Suddenly Obsessed With 'SuperCycles'. (Fortune)
• Dalio: How To Spot a Bubble. (Ritholtz)
• The Number of Public Listings By Zero-Revenue Companies Valued Above $1 Billion Currently Exceeds the Dot-Com Era. (Markets)

 

What The Perseverance Rover Reminded Me About

Last week, the Perseverance rover landed on Mars. It's not the first time we've landed a rover on Mars, but it's still incredible to see. 

via NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory 

It's a feat of engineering and human will. It's also a good reminder. 

History is littered with tales of once-rare resources made plentiful by innovation. The reason is pretty straightforward … scarcity is often contextual.

Imagine a giant orange tree packed with fruit. If you pluck all the oranges from the lower branches, you are effectively out of accessible fruit. From that limited perspective, oranges are now scarce. But once someone invents a piece of technology called a ladder, the problem is solved.

When we first went to the moon, calculators referred to people charged with doing the complex math needed for the Rocket to make it into Space (rather than the device that could do the math instantly with no errors) and the computing power it took to get to the moon took up many rooms at NASA. 

In comparison, you now have dramatically more computing power in your pocket than NASA used to get to the moon. 

Likewise, we now have people living in space, posting videos from the ISS, and the ability to stream high-resolution images (and even movies) of space and galaxies near and far. 

What was once scarce and unobtainable has become abundant and accessible.   It is a story repeated countless times.

Still, as humans, we're wired to think locally and linearly. We evolved to live our lives in small groups, to fear outsiders, and to stay in a general region until we die. We're not wired to think about the billions and billions of individuals on our planet, or the rate of technological growth - or the minuteness of all that in contrast to the expanse of space. 

Nonetheless, we have created better and faster ways to travel, we've created instantaneous communication networks across vast distances, and we've created megacities. Our tribes have gotten much bigger - and with that, our ability to envision and enact massive change has grown as well. 

Our quest to conquer Space became the poster child for a type of innovation we now call "moon shots".  While 'moon shot' originally meant "long shot," it's increasingly being used to describe a monumental effort towards a lofty goal — in other words, a "giant leap."

Today, with technology as a catalyst, we see those leaps happen in many areas (like A.I., medicine, longevity, space exploration, etc.). 

It's hard to comprehend the scale of the universe or the scale of our potential ... but that's what makes it worth exploring.

Pretty cool!

Onwards!!

 

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 21st, 2021

Click here to see some cool photos and videos from the Perseverance rover. 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• The Texas Freeze: Why the Power Grid Failed. (Wall Street Journal)
• The Two Hours that Nearly Destroyed Texas's Electric Grid. (Finance)
• After Days of Mass Outages, Some Texas Residents Now Face Huge Electric Bills. (NPR)
• For Better Health During the Pandemic, is Two Hours Outdoors the New 10,000 Steps? (WSJ)
• Countries By Life Expectancy. (WorldAtlas)

 

Trading Links:

• Here's Why 'Black Swan' Author Nassim Taleb Dumped Bitcoin. (Decrypt)
• Turns Out Meme Stocks Have Basically Been Around Since 600 B.C. (Marker)
• China Blocked Jack Ma's Ant IPO After Investigation Revealed Likely Beneficiaries. (WSJ)
• Top US Lawmakers Want To Make Cannabis Federally Decriminalized: What To Know. (CNet)
• Top Wall Street Analysts Say Buy Stocks Like Denny's and Cloudflare As Economy Reopens. (CNBC)

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 17th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Are Humans Smarter or Stupider Than We Used To Be? (Freakonomics)
• Inside Twitter's Decision To Cut Off Trump. (New York Times)
• Robots Turn 100 and Still Enthrall Us. (Wall Street Journal)
• From Good To Great: How the Flywheel Can Be Your Company's Next Big Thing. (Entrepreneur)
• Clever New A.I. System Promises To Train Your Dog While You're Away From Home. (DigitalTrends)

 

Trading Links:

• An Old Foe of Banks Could Be Wall Street's New Top Cop. (Wall Street Journal)
• The 'Black Swan' Covid Catastrophe Shows Us Just How Fragile Our World Is. (TheGuardian)
• The Five Biggest Issues For Technology Companies In 2021. (WSJ)
• 5 Charts Show What the Global Economy Looks Like Heading Into 2021. (CNBC)
• 'I Don't See Anything On the Horizon that Can Stop the Growth of the ETF Market,' Invesco Official Says. Here are Her 2021 Predictions. (CNBC)

 

Elon Musk Is The Richest Person In The World

On the 7th, it was announced that Elon Musk's wealth passed Jeff Bezos's $185 Billion net worth to become the wealthiest person in the world. This is driven by Musk's many companies - SpaceX, The Boring Company, OpenAi, Neuralink, and of course, Tesla.

That valuation comes after Tesla's market value passed $700 Billion for the first time. His company is worth more than Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, GM, and Ford combined (despite not having nearly the distribution) based on Market Capitalization.

via EEAGLI

NIO, BYD, and Xpeng should be on the list, but their market cap has increased so rapidly it seems the list used missed it. 

With Tesla's almost meteoric rise, it raises the question of whether the value is based on the ongoing global expansion, or speculation driven primarily by traders believing other traders want it as well.  To put it in perspective, Tesla's revenue has been rising 50% a year, which is impressive, but the stock has increased 800% in a year. Its P/E ratio is over 1400. As well, Tesla's revenue is less than a tenth of many of the companies on this list - and many of the companies are launching their own electric vehicles. 

To better compare the companies, a much better test is enterprise value which takes into consideration the company's debt obligations. 

via Radiatin

This shows that Tesla is still very impressive - just slightly less impressive than the markets would have you believe. They have clearly taken on less debt than many of those companies, and their market cap likely helps them take on cheaper loans when they do pursue more debt. 

I have a lot of faith in the future of Tesla as a company - but as a reminder, at the height of the 1990s tech bubble, Yahoo was worth more than all of the newspaper companies in the US. Toyota alone brings in 10x the revenue that Tesla currently does, and manufactures 25x as many cars. 

Regardless - congratulations to Musk for the achievement. If you were curious how he intends to use his "newfound" wealth, Musk is committed to using his money for two major goals 1) Sustainable energy and 2) extending life/consciousness beyond Earth. 

I guess you have to shoot for the stars ... or at least planets.

Getting To Here: Primal King Podcast

Here is a podcast worth listening to at the beginning of a new year.

A friend of mine, Derek Wilson, interviewed me about mindsets, decision-making, and calling the future you want into existence.

I think it's a good episode,  and it feels very fitting as we start the new year. Check it out.  Or download a transcript made with Otter.AI

 

 

You can also find his podcast on Apple Podcasts.

Best wishes for a great 2021!

Processing A Bigger Future

Whether you think you can or you think you can't. You're right. - Henry Ford

Processing the possibilities of tomorrow is very difficult for humans.  Part of the problem is that we're wired to think locally and linearly. It's a monumental task for us to fathom exponential growth ... let alone its implications.  For example, consider what happened to seemingly smart and forward-looking companies like Kodak, Blockbuster Video, or RadioShack. 

The world changes quickly.

Change is constant. The wheels of innovation and commerce spin ever-faster (whether you're ready for it, or not). 

As a practical matter, it means that you get to choose between the shorter-term pain of trying to keep up ... or the longer-term pain of being left behind.  Said a different way, you have to choose between chaos or nothing. 

It is hard to keep up – and harder to stay ahead.

Personally, I went from being one of the youngest and most tech-savvy people in the room to a not-so-young person close to losing their early-adopter beanie.  Sometimes it almost seems like my kids expect me to ask them to set my VCR so it stops flashing 12:00 AM all day.

My company may not really do "rocket science", but it's pretty close. We use exponential technologies like high-performance computing, AI, and machine learning. 

But, as we get "techier," I get less so ... and my role gets less technical, over time, too.

Because of my age, experience, and tendency to like pioneering ... I've battled technology for decades. 

Don't get me wrong, technology has always been my friend.  I still love it.  But my relationship with it is different now.

I tend to focus on the bigger picture.  Also, I tend to appreciate technology on a more "intellectual" or "conceptual level" – but in a far less detailed way (and with much less expectation of using the technology, directly, myself).

The Bigger Picture

My father said, not worrying about all the little details helped him see the bigger picture and focus on what was possible.

You don't have to focus on the technological details to predict its progress.  Anticipating what people will need is a great predictor of what will get built.   That means predicting "what" is often easier than predicting "how'. Why? Because technology doesn't often look for a problem; rather, it is the response to one.

Here's a video from 1974 of Arthur C. Clarke making some very impressive guesses about the future of technology. 

 

via Australia Broadcasting Corporation

Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing, augmented reality, neuro-interfaces, and a host of exponential technologies are going to change the face and nature of our lives (and perhaps life itself).  Some of these technologies have become inevitabilities ... but what they enable is virtually limitless.

Where do see this going?

We certainly live in exciting times.

Onwards.

Why We Don't See Aliens

This week, a former senior Israeli military official proclaimed that we've been contacted by Aliens from a Galactic Federation - and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together. 

How naive to think that election news would be the craziest stuff you'd hear this holiday season ...

Back to aliens (for the record, that was a sentence I haven't typed before).  There are many stories (or theories) about how we have encountered aliens before and just kept them secret. In contrast, I have found it more realistic and thought-provoking to consider theories about why we haven't seen aliens until now.

For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high-probability estimates for their existence. 

To simplify the issue, there are billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies), which are similar to our Sun.  Consequently, there must be some probability of some of them having Earth-like planets. It isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than us. Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies - interstellar travel isn't absurd. 

Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and length of time we are talking about) ... it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb (who is a particle physicist) tackles that in his book and in this TED Talk.   

 

via TED

In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

1. Habitability and stability of their planet
2. Building blocks of life 
3. Technological advancement
4. Socialness/Communication technologies

But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, moons' effect on climate, etc. 

Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life - and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks. 

What do you think?

Here are some other links I liked on this topic.  There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

• 75 Reasons We Don't See Aliens 
• Wait But Why: The Fermi Paradox
• A New Theory on Why We Haven't Found Aliens Yet
• A List of Solutions to The Fermi Paradox
• Dissolving the Fermi Paradox, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University

To Infinity and Beyond!