Capitalogix

The History of Technology ...

We are living through the fastest period of technological change in history — a fact that demands not just awareness, but active engagement. Here’s how to recognize this shift, and what you can do to succeed in it.

Our ancestors survived by thinking locally and linearly. Yet today, this mindset often leaves us struggling to anticipate the sweeping, unpredictable effects of technology.

To predict the future of technology, you must understand where we are and where we are headed ... but it also helps to recognize how far we’ve come—and how quickly things are now accelerating.

A Timeline of Human Innovation – From Stone Tools to AI

Our World In Data put together a great chart that shows the entire history of humanity in relation to innovation. It shows how fast we are moving by telling the story with milestones.

 

Max Roser via ourworldindata

Innovation isn’t only driven by scientists. It’s driven by people like you or me having a vision and making it into a reality. 

To see just how far we’ve come — and how quickly things now change — let’s look at some milestones.

3.4 million years ago, our ancestors supposedly started using tools. 2.4 million years later, they harnessed fire. Forty-three thousand years ago (almost a million years later), we developed the first instrument, a flute. 

Why Speed Matters

The innovations we just discussed happened over an astonishing expanse of time. Compare that to this: In 1903, the Wright Brothers first took flight ... and just 66 years later, we were on the moon. That’s less than a blink in the history of humankind, and yet our knowledge, technologies, and capabilities are expanding exponentially. 

Acceleration Is The New Normal

Technology was like a snowball gathering speed, but it’s become an avalanche—hurtling forward, accelerated by AI. Here are some fun facts to back that up.

• ChatGPT’s Explosive Growth: In 2025, OpenAI’s ChatGPT will hit 700 million weekly active users—a fourfold increase over the previous year. In its first year, ChatGPT reached 100 million monthly active users in just two months, a milestone that took Instagram 2.5 years.

• Workforce Shift: About 97 million people will work in the AI sector by the end of 2025, and the value of the U.S. AI sector already exceeds $74 billion.

• Usage Surge: As of July 2025, users submit 2.5 billion prompts to ChatGPT every day, and analysts expect OpenAI to reach 1 billion users by the end of the year. 

 

Yesterday’s stable footing guarantees nothing; you must constantly adjust or get swept away.

While AI dominates headlines, the same story of acceleration is unfolding in fields like biotechnology, climate tech, and robotics. It’s happening everywhere all at once. From nanotechnologies to longevity and age reversal, and from construction to space exploration ... exponential change is becoming a constant.

Turning Information into Actions – What To Do Now

Though I lead an AI company, I’m not an engineer or a data scientist — I am a strategist. My role is to envision bigger futures, communicate them clearly, and leverage tools that free me to create greater value. Ultimately, that’s going to become everybody’s job.

I don’t believe that AI will replace people like us quickly, but common sense tells us that people who use AI more effectively might replace us faster than we’d like.

Start by experimenting with new AI tools. When was the last time you tried a new tool or technology? Even though our company works on AI every day, I’ve challenged myself to continually expand my ability to use AI to create the things I want.

You’ll probably find that the things you want most are just outside your current comfort zone — or you’d already have them.

The next level of impact and value lies just beyond your current habits—comfort is the enemy of reinvention.

A good start is to think about what routine task you could automate next week.

Leaders must move from certainty-seeking to rapid experimentation. Encourage nimble, high-frequency experimentation with emerging tech.

Focus on skillsets that complement, not compete with, automation. And vice versa, focus on automation that complements (rather than competes with) unique abilities.

Share your learnings with your team or community. Set the expectation of progress, and make regular sharing and reporting part of your process. Reward the sharing of learnings over the accumulation of dead knowledge.

Prepare teams not only technologically, but culturally and psychologically, for relentless reinvention.

Brene Brown, a noted leadership expert, says, “Vulnerability is the birthplace of innovation, creativity, and change.”

Don’t let perfectionism hold you back. You don’t need to know every destination before boarding the train; what matters is that you get on. Waiting too long is no longer safe—the train is leaving, and the cost of inaction is climbing.

Success now means hopping on and adapting while in motion—not waiting for all the answers.

Onwards!

Can Humans Predict The Future?

New technologies fascinate me ... As we approach the Singularity, I guess that is becoming human nature. 

Ray Kurzweil (who is a well-respected futurist, inventor, and entrepreneur) optimistically predicts accelerating returns and exponential progress, where the technological advancements experienced in the 21st century will be vastly more significant and disruptive than those in previous centuries. Kurzeil believes: “The next century won’t feel like 100 years of progress—it will feel like 20,000."

However, there is a tension between our ability to imagine grand futures and our struggle to execute the how—the messy, uncertain work of getting there.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (a noted expert on randomness, probability, complexity, and uncertainty) reminds us that, “We often overestimate what we know and underestimate uncertainty.” There is a risk that “continuous forward motion” sometimes leads to dead ends and that speed without thoughtful direction can be dangerous. This is true in part because technology adoption is often more about human nature than the absolute value of technology. 

This post is about embracing the paradox of accepting both the value of vision and the discipline of small, progressive steps.

Dreaming vs. Doing

Recognize that the future is co-authored by dreamers and doers.

To get us started, here is a video, put together by Second Thought, that looks at various predictions from the early 1900s. It is a fun watch – Check it out. 

 

via Second Thought

The Fascination With and Challenges of Prediction

It’s interesting to look at what they strategically got right compared to what was tactically different. 

In a 1966 interview, Marshall McLuhan discussed the future of information with ideas that now resonate with AI technologies. He envisioned personalized information, where people request specific knowledge and receive tailored content. This concept has become a reality through AI-powered chatbots like ChatGPT, which can provide customized information based on user inputs.

Although McLuhan was against innovation, he recognized the need to understand emerging trends to maintain control and know when to “turn off the button.” 

In 1966, media futurist Marshall McLuhan envisioned a form of digital research eerily similar to the customized queries now answered by AI. Then he makes a surprising admission about why he studies technological change—with a lesson I think many need to hear. pic.twitter.com/yEBJv95GvP

— Benjamin Carlson (@bfcarlson) March 22, 2023

Prophecy vs. Navigation

While we revere “prophetic” moments, most successful outcomes arise from continuous adjustment—not perfect foresight.

Peter Drucker famously said, “The best way to predict the future is to create it.”

I’ll say it a different way ... It’s more useful to view innovation as navigation, rather than prophecy.

Like evolution, Success isn’t about strength or certainty—it’s about the ability to adapt quickly and course-correct as conditions change. This mindset urges leaders to embrace agile, resilient strategies that can respond rapidly to emerging opportunities and threats.

With that said, activity is not progress if it doesn’t lead you in the right direction. There are times when continuous course-correction can lead a team in circles. Pausing for periodic reflection and creating feedback loops helps prevent innovation drift. 

While not all predictions are made equal, we seem to have a better idea of what we want than how to accomplish it. 

The farther the horizon, the more guesswork is involved. Compared to the prior video on predictions from the mid-1900s, this video on the internet from 1995 seems downright prophetic. 

 

via YouTube

The Distinction Between Envisioning Outcomes and Creating Practical Paths to Them.

There’s a lesson there. It’s hard to predict the future, but that doesn’t mean you can’t skate to where the puck is moving. Future success goes to those who can quickly sense shifts, reorient, make decisions, and take action.

Even if the path ahead is unsure, it’s relatively easy to pick your next step, and then the next step. As long as you are moving in the right direction and keep taking steps without stopping, the result is inevitable. 

In Uncharted Territory, It’s Better to Use a Compass Than a Map

The distant future may be fuzzy, but it’s our willingness to keep moving—and keep learning—that tips the odds in our favor.

Reflect on the value of looking ahead, not for certainty but for direction.

Don’t worry if you can’t see your intended destination. Just focus on your next step and trust the journey.

Remember, there is always a best next step.

Onwards!

The Most Common Words In Each Religion ...

The World seems very “Us” versus “Them”...  But are we really that different?

The six largest religions in the world are Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Hinduism, Buddhism, and Sikhism. 

If you stripped away doctrine, what patterns might emerge in the world’s great sacred texts?

Similarity in Diversity.

We often think about the differences between religions. However, a deep review of their sacred texts shows striking similarities (and may be indications of a more integral “truth”).

Below is a word cloud for each of those religions based on their primary religious text. A word cloud is a visual map of language where the size and boldness of a word reflect its frequency in the text. In this case, the image spotlights the most frequent words across different religious texts (e.g., Jewish Bible, Christian New Testament, Quran, Hindu Vedas, Buddhist Tripitaka, Sikh Guru Granth Sahib).

Each panel highlights high-frequency terms like Lord, God, man, people, Israel, Indra, Agni, Allah, fortunate, Guru, etc., with the most frequently used words appearing larger and bolder. A visualization, like this, makes it easy to identify the recurring themes or focal points of each tradition.

So, here is a closer look at what a word cloud of the world’s religions reveals if we strip away doctrine and focus only on frequency. 

 

teddyterminal via Reddit

On one level, this post explores both the similarities and limits of religious texts via word clouds.

As historian Yuval Harari notes, “Humans think in terms of stories, not statistics.” Those word clouds are the beginnings of narratives that go beyond the numbers. For example, shared words don’t mean shared values. The word ‘love’ in one tradition may imply obedience, while in another it means self-transcendence.

The Power and Pitfalls of Translation

Likewise, translating sacred texts into English makes them more accessible, but can distort meaning and nuance. As an illustration, if you noticed the name “Keith” at the bottom of the Hinduism word cloud, it’s because that was the translator’s name. You might also have seen the word “car” in the Hinduism cloud, that is not an anachronism or prophecy... it is just another old-fashioned word for “chariot”.

It’s also worth acknowledging that this word cloud is from the English translations, so some words that may mean slightly different things in other languages can be all translated to one word in English. For example, it’s very common in Biblical Hebrew to see different words translated into the same English word. Examples include Khata, Avon, and Pesha – three different “ways of committing a wrong” that may all be translated to the same English word.

Distortions like these occur across many texts and cultures. In other words, similarities in word usage do not always reflect shared values. Recognizing this helps us navigate between the boundaries of certainty and uncertainty.

This brings to mind an ancient parable …

The Parable of Perspectives – Lessons from the Elephant

I’ve always loved the parable of the blind men and the elephant. While there are many versions, here’s broadly how it goes:

A group of blind men heard that a strange animal, called an elephant, had been brought to the town, but none of them were aware of its shape and form. Out of curiosity, they said: "We must inspect and know it by touch, of which we are capable". So, they sought it out, and when they found it they groped about it. The first person, whose hand landed on the trunk, said, "This being is like a thick snake". For another one whose hand reached its ear, it seemed like a kind of fan. As for another person, whose hand was upon its leg, said, the elephant is a pillar like a tree-trunk. The blind man who placed his hand upon its side said the elephant, "is a wall". Another who felt its tail, described it as a rope. The last felt its tusk, stating the elephant is that which is hard, smooth and like a spear. 

This parable highlights that even when everyone is “blind” to the whole truth, each perspective still holds real insight. Recognizing that partial views are still valuable can drive innovative, integrative thinking.

The blind men and the elephant parable also reminds us of the limitations of individual perspectives and the value of integrating multiple viewpoints. Interestingly, that integration is one of the things large language models are best at ... and helping humans access a perspective of perspectives might be a step towards enlightenment.

Future societies may see it as obvious that synthesizing perspectives (religious, cultural, strategic) can be done by advanced AI at scale, transforming how we resolve complex disputes.

Hope that helps.

Oh, and as a thought experiment ... What would the word cloud of your own guiding beliefs look like?

The Future of Biohacking

Today’s my birthday. I woke up on the right side of the dirt, in America, grateful for the opportunities ahead. 

So far, so good.

For me, birthdays also invite a moment to pause and reflect on where I am, where I want to go, and what it’ll take to get there.

On the health front, I’m reminded of a simple truth: A healthy person has a thousand dreams, while an unhealthy one has only one.

Thankfully, I still have many dreams.

We’re lucky to be born late enough in human history that medicine isn’t just about fixing what’s broken—it’s about regeneration and life extension. The real promise isn’t just living longer, but living well longer.

That’s a future worth investing in.

So today, I’m dusting off some notes from a meeting I had years ago—lessons that feel more relevant than ever.

A Chat With The Father of Biohacking  

In 2018, I was in Alaska at Steamboat Bay for a CEO retreat. I was spending time with a friend, Dave Asprey, a successful serial entrepreneur, author of several great books, and a thought leader in biohacking. In many ways, he’s the father of modern biohacking. 

We recorded a video where Dave did a great job of relating his world to the world of Capitalogix and trading. I share it in part so you can experience his wide range of interests and expertise. It holds up well. I encourage you to watch it.

 

Via YouTube.

In the video, Dave explains that life evolves through a series of algorithms operating at microscopic levels. Your body and brain are made of tiny parts working like clever little computers. These parts constantly talk to each other, sense what’s happening around them, and change their behavior to keep you alive and thriving.

Nature has been running this amazing program for billions of years, constantly improving through trial and error (that’s evolution).

Dave points out that there are striking similarities between genetics/epigenetics and modern digital algorithms. Markets and businesses make numerous small decisions and adjustments to achieve significant outcomes.

In a sense, Markets and industries function like biological environments where algorithms continuously evolve and adapt.

So really, life and business aren’t magic—they’re just lots of tiny choices happening at once. If you learn how to listen to these choices and guide them wisely, you become better at playing the game. And that’s how evolution, biology, and even markets all tie together.

 

The lesson? Build systems and habits that are flexible and adaptable, like living things.

It helped me reframe my perspective on my business. But it also got me thinking more about my health and how I wanted the next 20 years of my life to look. As a result, I started taking care of my health and paying more attention to preventive care. 

Health is the foundation that gives all ambitions a place to stand.

Focusing on the positive is important, but extending your healthy lifespan starts by being honest with yourself and identifying what you and your body struggle with the most.

A doctor friend gave me some advice. He said it doesn’t matter if you’re on top of 9 out of 10 things; it’s the 10th that kills you.

The goal isn’t just to stay alive longer; it’s to live life to its fullest for as long as possible.

I recently joined a fantastic mastermind group called DaVinci 50, run by Lisa and Richard Rossi. It brings together a remarkable collection of medical professionals and entrepreneurs focused on the latest research, treatments, and opportunities in health and longevity.

Another great tool I rely on is Advanced Body Scan. Early detection is crucial, but so is tracking the history of your scans to monitor changes over time. In my opinion, the most valuable scan is always the next one.

Additionally, I utilize a growing list of trackers and biometric devices to monitor my heart rate, along with various apps and tools for mindfulness, breathwork, and journaling. It is essential to recognize that the mind, body, and spirit work together to shape how you live your life.

Where Biohacking Fits In 

It’s not surprising that biohacking has become as popular as it has. In a society that encourages (and perhaps even necessitates) an impossible balance between work, responsibilities, and self-care, it makes sense to want to increase efficiency and effectiveness. 

Biohacking helps you do more with less. Biohacking is popular because it promises to help you achieve peak performance via the path of least resistance.

Having trouble with sleep, but don’t want to stop using your phone before bed? Wear blue-light blocking glasses. 

Not getting enough results at the gym? Work out “smarter,” not harder, by using cryotechnology and intelligent lifting machines. 

While biohacking started as tricks like that – nootropics to help your mind, light and sound machines to decrease stress – it’s becoming increasingly tech-centric and augmentation-based. 

In Sweden, thousands of Swedes are having microchips inserted under their skin to speed up their daily routines. They use chips to open locked doors, store contact information, and access the train. 

The Future of Biohacking

Long-term, it’s likely you’ll see it moving toward exoskeletons, AR/XR experiences, and, unsurprisingly, sex toys. It’s also being used to create artificial organs and counteract memory loss. Companies leading this movement are Neuralink,  Biohax International, and Digiwell. While it’s currently being adopted primarily by fast movers and technocrats, it’s pragmatic to think that more widely adopted versions of this will emerge as technology becomes standardized and protections are put in place. 

For all the excitement, it’s necessary to remain skeptical and patient. DIY biohacking raises several ethical concerns, particularly regarding data protection and cybersecurity. As a reminder, when it comes to cybersecurity, you, the user, are the biggest weakness.

There’s no stopping this train, but there’s still time to ensure it stays on track.

If you’re looking to get started, here’s an hour-long conversation with Dave Asprey about his favorite optimizations. 

Here’s to having a thousand dreams, leveraging the best of today’s medical advances, and investing not just in years added, but quality within those years.

Onwards!

Digesting a Bigger Future

We live in a world where technology changes quickly and often, while human nature remains relatively unchanged.

For most of us, human nature is the key variable.

I suspect Henry Ford focused on that when he said, "Whether you think you can or you think you can't. You're right."

Processing the possibilities of tomorrow is often difficult for humans. Part of the problem is that we're wired to think locally and linearly. It's a monumental task for us to comprehend exponential growth, let alone its implications. For example, consider what happened to seemingly smart and forward-looking companies like Kodak, Blockbuster, and RadioShack. 

 

The world changes quickly.

Change is constant. The wheels of innovation and commerce spin ever-faster (whether you're ready for it or not). 

As a practical matter, it means that you get to choose between the shorter-term pain of trying to keep up ... or the longer-term pain of being left behind. Said another way, you have to choose between chaos and nothing. 

It's hard to keep up – and even harder to stay ahead.

Personally, I went from being one of the youngest and most tech-savvy people in the room to a not-so-young person close to losing their early-adopter beanie. Sometimes it almost seems like my kids expect me to ask them to set my VCR so it stops flashing 12:00 AM all day.

My company may not be doing "rocket science", but it's pretty close. We utilize exponential technologies, such as high-performance computing, AI, and machine learning, to amplify intelligence and make data-driven, evidence-based decisions in real-time, all the time. 

But, as we get "techier," I get less so ... and my role gets less technical, over time, too.

Due to my age, experience, and tendency to be a pioneer, I've been battling technology for decades. 

Don't get me wrong, technology has always been my friend, and I still love it. But my relationship with it is different now.

I recognize that there are things that change and things that stay the same. And for me, the things that "stay the same" tend to be more important.

Paradoxically, the part of me that stays the same can still change and grow – that is how you become more (and a more evolved version) of that thing.

 

The Bigger Picture

My father said that not worrying about all the little details helped him see the bigger picture and focus on what was possible.

You don't have to focus on the technological details to predict its progress. Anticipating what people will need is a great predictor of what will get built.   That means predicting "what" is often easier than predicting 'how'.

Why is that often the case? Because technology that solves a problem is more profitable and popular than technology searching for a problem to solve.

Here's a video from 1974 of Arthur C. Clarke making some remarkably accurate predictions about the future of technology. 

 

via Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing, augmented reality, neuro-interfaces, and a host of exponential technologies are going to change the face and nature of our lives (and perhaps life itself). Some of these technologies have become inevitabilities ... but what they enable is virtually limitless.

Where do you see this going?

Onwards.

How Has The Job Market Changed Since 1988?

1998 was a long time ago. My oldest son was just a twinkle in my eye. Michael Jackson was touring the world for his ‘Bad’ album, and ‘Rain Man’ topped the movie charts. It’s also the year that Microsoft Office was released. 

A lot has changed since then. For obvious reasons, the U.S. labor market has changed radically since then ... but how different is it really?

 

via visualcapitalist 

The data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, so we can assume it’s relatively accurate. 

In 1988, consumer-facing roles, such as salespeople and cashiers, were the most common jobs in 46 states. Comparing that to 2024 highlights how much less reliance we have on brick-and-mortar stores. 

While not entirely different, now fast food workers are the most common job in 15 states. This is unsurprising in light of the shift toward lower-wage & flexible-hour service jobs. Meanwhile, retail salespersons are still the top job in 11 states. 

Operations managers, home health aides, and freight movers have made significant gains in the U.S. labor market. 

I was surprised to see how many home health aides there were, but considering the aging U.S. population, it makes sense. 

The U.S. is still clearly a consumer economy; however, the focus has switched towards logistics and supply chain, as people shop increasingly online. 

I’ve been thinking a lot about the future of work. People talk about change, but so far, things have felt relatively stable. That’s about to shift. AI is advancing faster than most realize—we’re still early on the curve, but the steep climb is beginning.

We’re entering a phase where AI is no longer just a tool—it’s becoming a collaborator in both our personal and professional lives. This shift will reshape how we work, create, and make decisions. For business leaders, that means looking past the hype and focusing on real value, workforce readiness, and building trust. For employees, it means adapting to a new kind of teamwork—one that includes AI as a core partner in creativity and productivity.

How will those changes show up in a chart like this?

 

We live in interesting times!

The Benner Cycle: How Not To Predict Markets

When I first became interested in trading, I would often consult many traditional sources and old-school market wisdom.  I particularly liked the Stock Trader's Almanac. 

While there is real wisdom in some of those sources, most might as well be horoscopes or Nostradamus-level predictions.  Throw enough darts, and one of them might hit the bullseye. 

Still, it seems better than using astrology to trade. 

Want something easy to predict?  Traders love patterns ... from the simple head-and-shoulders to Fibonacci sequences and the Elliot Wave Theory.

Here's an example from Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer, in 1875.  That year, he released a book titled "Benners Prophecies: Future Ups and Downs in Prices," and in it, he shared a now relatively famous chart called the Benner Cycle.  Some claim that it's been accurately predicting the ups and downs of the market for over 100 years.  Let's check it out. 

 

 

Here's what it does get right ... markets go up, and then they go down ... and that cycle continues.  Consequently, if you want to make money, you should buy low and sell high ... It's hard to call that a competitive advantage.

Mostly, you're looking at vague predictions with +/- 2-year error bars on a 10-year cycle. 

However, it was close to the dot-com bust and the 2008 crash, so even if you sold a little early, you'd have been reasonably happy with your decision to follow the cycle.

The truth is that we use cycle analysis in our live trading models.  However, it is a lot more rigorous and scientific than the Benner Cycle.  The trick is figuring out what to focus on—and what to ignore. 

Just as humans are good at seeing patterns where there are none ... they tend to see cycles that aren't anything but coincidences. 

This is a reminder that just because an AI chat service recommends something, it doesn't make it a good recommendation.  Those models do some things well.  Making scientific or mathematically rigorous market predictions probably isn't the area to trust ChatGPT or one of its rivals ... yet. 

We're seeing bots improve at running businesses and writing code, but off-the-shelf tools like ChatGPT are still known for generating hallucinations and overconfidence. 

Be careful out there.

What My Recent Surgery Reminded Me About Technology.

One of my recurring messages is to focus on what you want, rather than what you don’t want.

Likewise, I believe the best way to get through challenging periods is to focus on your resources or progress.

Anyway, two weeks ago, I had a minor surgery.

Let’s face it, very few people “want” to have surgery (even small ones) ... and, for those that do, it’s a sign that something else is bothering them even more.

As much as it sucked, I have a lot to be grateful for. The practical realities of time, technology, and progress made the procedure and the recovery process easier than at any point in our species’ history.

Procedures that used to mean multiple days in a hospital bed have you home in under 24 hours.  

It brought back memories of my knee surgery from 12 years ago... and reminded me of what technology makes possible.

Before my knee surgery, I wasn’t enjoying the prospect of the needles, the knock-out drugs, the cutting, or the recovery process. Frankly, I was scared.

 

 

History is littered with tales of once-rare resources that have become plentiful through innovation. The reason is pretty straightforward: scarcity is often context-dependent.

Imagine a giant orange tree packed with fruit. If you pluck all the oranges from the lower branches, you are effectively out of accessible fruit. From that limited perspective, oranges are now scarce. But once someone invents a piece of technology called a ladder, the problem is solved.

Here is a picture from inside my knee (unlike years ago, they didn’t have to slice me open to gain access for the picture or the repair): less damage, less time, less drugs, less recovery.

 

 

Bottom-Line: I walked over 2,500 steps the day after the surgery. 

Think how far diagnostics and surgery have come since then?

Whether it is 3D imaging, minimally invasive surgical instruments, or linking big data and elastic computing, technology is a resource-liberating mechanism. It can make the ‘once scarce’ the ‘now abundant’ (or ‘readily accessible’) ... and a lot less painful.

 

From ‘Doctor Klingon’ to Clarity — and What That Means for You

But where are we today – and how was surgery different?

It sounds like a joke, but the future of medicine is in your pocket.

One of the biggest differences for me was having AI available to help me feel informed throughout the process. From the beginning, where I wanted to understand the issue and potential solutions, to having AI available on my phone in the recovery room. For example, while waiting for the doctor to tell me “how things went,” I downloaded the surgical notes from the hospital portal, only to find that they were written in “doctor speak” Klingon. So I opened Perplexity in incognito mode and asked it to interpret the notes, and explain everything to me as if I had minimal medical knowledge but still wanted to understand what happened and what I should expect. The result was incredibly comforting, and I was able to use that to send updates to family and friends.

Meanwhile, try to imagine the extensive technology used by doctors and medical staff throughout the process to test, analyze, interpret, monitor, and treat.

Soon, we’ll be able to utilize real-time data for diagnostics and design treatment plans and preventive care tailored to an individual’s unique biology and lifestyle. As a result, personalized, predictive healthcare will become the norm. Likewise, the idea of tailoring treatment to your unique biology will be expected, not exceptional.

It’s also easier than ever to imagine the shift from reactive to preventive medicine. Surgery will become less frequent as AI and wearables catch problems before they require intervention. Likewise,. That means better care and better outcomes - at scale!

And it is all getting better faster than before.

Pretty cool! 

It brought back memories of my knee surgery from 12 years ago... and reminded me of what technology makes possible.

Before my knee surgery, I wasn’t enjoying the prospect of the needles, the knock-out drugs, the cutting, or the recovery process. Frankly, I was scared.

 

 

History is littered with tales of once-rare resources that have become plentiful through innovation. The reason is pretty straightforward: scarcity is often context-dependent.

Imagine a giant orange tree packed with fruit. If you pluck all the oranges from the lower branches, you are effectively out of accessible fruit. From that limited perspective, oranges are now scarce. But once someone invents a piece of technology called a ladder, the problem is solved.

Here is a picture from inside my knee (unlike years ago, they didn’t have to slice me open to gain access for the picture or the repair): less damage, less time, less drugs, less recovery.

 

 

Bottom-Line: I walked over 2,500 steps the day after the surgery. 

Think how far diagnostics and surgery have come since then?

Whether it is 3D imaging, minimally invasive surgical instruments, or linking big data and elastic computing, technology is a resource-liberating mechanism. It can make the ‘once scarce’ the ‘now abundant’ (or ‘readily accessible’) ... and a lot less painful.

 

From ‘Doctor Klingon’ to Clarity — and What That Means for You

But where are we today – and how was surgery different?

It sounds like a joke, but the future of medicine is in your pocket.

One of the biggest differences for me was having AI available to help me feel informed throughout the process. From the beginning, where I wanted to understand the issue and potential solutions, to having AI available on my phone in the recovery room. For example, while waiting for the doctor to tell me “how things went,” I downloaded the surgical notes from the hospital portal, only to find that they were written in “doctor speak” Klingon. So I opened Perplexity in incognito mode and asked it to interpret the notes, and explain everything to me as if I had minimal medical knowledge but still wanted to understand what happened and what I should expect. The result was incredibly comforting, and I was able to use that to send updates to family and friends.

Meanwhile, try to imagine the extensive technology used by doctors and medical staff throughout the process to test, analyze, interpret, monitor, and treat.

Soon, we’ll be able to utilize real-time data for diagnostics and design treatment plans and preventive care tailored to an individual’s unique biology and lifestyle. As a result, personalized, predictive healthcare will become the norm. Likewise, the idea of tailoring treatment to your unique biology will be expected, not exceptional.

It’s also easier than ever to imagine the shift from reactive to preventive medicine. Surgery will become less frequent as AI and wearables catch problems before they require intervention. Likewise,. That means better care and better outcomes - at scale!

And it is all getting better faster than before.

Pretty cool! 

Diminishing Returns in AI: The Most Common AI Mistake

At some point, more of the same stops paying off ... it is called the law of diminishing returns.

via Sketchplanations

Nature (and common sense) reminds us that equilibrium is important. For example, when you exercise too much, you get injured; when you drink too much water, you get poisoned; etc. 

This concept applies almost everywhere.

• It's why diversification is so important in portfolio construction theory. 
• Or, why you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket (concentrating your risk).
• And, my favorite, it's also why you shouldn't only eat vegetables.

A related nugget of wisdom from the extreme ... Too much of a good thing is a bad thing! 

And of course ... Be moderate in everything, including moderation.

A recent study on the effects of ChatGPT use on brain activity also supports this theme. 

via "Your Brain on ChatGPT: Accumulation of Cognitive Debt when Using an AI Assistant for Essay Writing Task" 

The study divided 54 subjects into three groups, and asked them to write several SAT essays using ChatGPT, Google, or nothing at all. They used an EEG to record the writers' brain activity. ChatGPT users showed the lowest brain engagement. Over time, ChatGPT users got lazier. 

As a result, the ChatGPT essays also ended up lacking original thought and sounding similar. 

 

The paper suggests that the use of LLMs could harm learning and retention. The group that wrote without any help showed the highest neural connectivity, and higher brain activation in creativity ideation, memory load, and semantic processing. This group was more engaged and curious, and expressed higher satisfaction with their work. 

 

The paper hasn't been peer-reviewed yet and has a small sample size. 

Ultimately, I think it's telling us something we probably could have already guessed. If you're not actually the one reading or writing something ... you're not going to absorb the information as well. Your brain isn't going to activate as well. And if you're not finding other places to train your brain, you'll get worse at critical thinking. 

 

A few weeks ago, I wrote about my research process and how AI has both bolstered and hindered certain aspects of it. I'm casting a wider net, but going less deep. 

So now, I’m exploring how to maintain a balance. I still want to leverage AI’s value, while reintroducing a layer of slowness and reflection into the process. Maybe that means manually summarizing some articles. Maybe it means pausing to journal about what I’ve read, or discussing it with someone. The goal is not to abandon the efficiency — but to ensure that efficiency doesn’t come at the cost of depth. - via "Is AI Making Your And Your Team Smarter?"

This isn't a call to avoid AI or to slow down its development. It's a call to deliberation and intentionality. Students are flaunting that they're using ChatGPT to shirk the system. Companies are releasing AI-written copy not only on their websites but also in press releases. Humans are falling in love with chatbots and leaving their spouses. 

 

Meanwhile, AI is also the underpinning of countless enhancements and increased productivity. 

 

The same thing happened with the Internet. 

 

At a certain point, overreliance becomes a crutch, not a tool. 

 

I bet AI makes unintelligent and lazy people lazier and less intelligent. 

I'm positive it can make YOU smarter and more effective if you use it in moderation and to support your unique abilities. 

Onwards! 

Nature (and common sense) reminds us that equilibrium is important. For example, when you exercise too much, you get injured; when you drink too much water, you get poisoned; etc. 

This concept applies almost everywhere.

• It's why diversification is so important in portfolio construction theory. 
• Or, why you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket (concentrating your risk).
• And, my favorite, it's also why you shouldn't only eat vegetables.

A related nugget of wisdom from the extreme ... Too much of a good thing is a bad thing! 

And of course ... Be moderate in everything, including moderation.

A recent study on the effects of ChatGPT use on brain activity also supports this theme. 

via "Your Brain on ChatGPT: Accumulation of Cognitive Debt when Using an AI Assistant for Essay Writing Task" 

My Artificial Intelligence Journey

Time seems to go faster as I get older. Likewise, technology seems to be advancing faster than ever, too.

Take AI as an example... even though I've been involved in this field for many years, I'm surprised by how rapidly it's improving now.

I suspect that part of the surprise comes from comparing the current pace of change to my memories of how long it took to improve in the past. Even though I had a sense of the quickening, the thing about exponential technologies is that there's a tipping point ... and clearly we're past that point on the curve.

I'm often met with surprise when I talk about my AI journey ... because it began in 1991, when it was still hard to spell AI.

Looking back, it makes a lot more sense to me than it did as I was moving through it. Here is a video about that journey and what it means for you and your future. 

 

Click here to view the transcript of the video.

Looking back on my life and career, one could argue that I got my start in AI with my most recent company, Capitalogix, which was founded over 20 years ago. Or, perhaps, we could go back further and say it started with my previous company, IntellAgent Control (which was an early AI company, focused on the creation and use of intelligent agents). By today's standards, the technology we used back then was too simple to be considered AI, but at the time, we were on the cutting edge.

Maybe we should go further back and say it started when I became the first lawyer in my firm to use a computer ... or was it when I first fell in love with technology? 

The truth is ... I've spent my whole life on this path. My fascination with making better decisions, taking smarter actions, and getting better results probably started when I was two years old (because of the incident discussed in the video).

Ultimately, the starting point is irrelevant. Looking back, it seems inevitable. The decisions I made, the people I met, and my experiences ... they all led me here.

However, at any point in the journey, if you asked, "Is this where you thought you'd end up?" I doubt that I'd have said yes. 

I've always been fascinated by what makes people successful and how to become more efficient and effective. In a sense, that's what AI does. It's a capability amplifier. 

When I transitioned from being a corporate securities lawyer to an entrepreneur, Artificial Intelligence happened to be the best vehicle I found to do that. It made sense then, and it makes sense now.

Like most things in life, it's easy to see the golden thread looking backwards, but it's a lot harder to see projecting forwards.

I wouldn't have it any other way. It certainly keeps things interesting.

Onwards!

Time seems to go faster as I get older. Likewise, technology seems to be advancing faster than ever, too.

Take AI as an example... even though I've been involved in this field for many years, I'm surprised by how rapidly it's improving now.

I suspect that part of the surprise comes from comparing the current pace of change to my memories of how long it took to improve in the past. Even though I had a sense of the quickening, the thing about exponential technologies is that there's a tipping point ... and clearly we're past that point on the curve.

I'm often met with surprise when I talk about my AI journey ... because it began in 1991, when it was still hard to spell AI.

Looking back, it makes a lot more sense to me than it did as I was moving through it. Here is a video about that journey and what it means for you and your future. 

 

Click here to view the transcript of the video.

Looking back on my life and career, one could argue that I got my start in AI with my most recent company, Capitalogix, which was founded over 20 years ago. Or, perhaps, we could go back further and say it started with my previous company, IntellAgent Control (which was an early AI company, focused on the creation and use of intelligent agents). By today's standards, the technology we used back then was too simple to be considered AI, but at the time, we were on the cutting edge.

Maybe we should go further back and say it started when I became the first lawyer in my firm to use a computer ... or was it when I first fell in love with technology? 

The truth is ... I've spent my whole life on this path. My fascination with making better decisions, taking smarter actions, and getting better results probably started when I was two years old (because of the incident discussed in the video).

Ultimately, the starting point is irrelevant. Looking back, it seems inevitable. The decisions I made, the people I met, and my experiences ... they all led me here.

However, at any point in the journey, if you asked, "Is this where you thought you'd end up?" I doubt that I'd have said yes. 

I've always been fascinated by what makes people successful and how to become more efficient and effective. In a sense, that's what AI does. It's a capability amplifier. 

When I transitioned from being a corporate securities lawyer to an entrepreneur, Artificial Intelligence happened to be the best vehicle I found to do that. It made sense then, and it makes sense now.

Like most things in life, it's easy to see the golden thread looking backwards, but it's a lot harder to see projecting forwards.

I wouldn't have it any other way. It certainly keeps things interesting.

Onwards!