Capitalogix

The Promise And Peril of AI with Alan Olsen

In 2017, I shot my first video with Alan Olsen. Alan is a wealth manager to the ultra-affluent.  His American Dreams show is immensely popular with the High-Net-Worth demographic in Silicon Valley.

Alan's show is about finding your path in life, and what it takes to make businesses thrive through adversity and challenging times. 

In my first video with him, we talked about defining a meaningful life. We started by talking about my career path from a young lawyer to spending over 25 years running tech companies ... and the lessons learned along the way.

I recently shot a new video with him – this time on the promise and peril of AI. It has over 3,500 Likes on YouTube.  Watch it here.

 

via The American Dreams Show

The main issue addressed during the video is how you can best get what you want as the world changes and forces like AI terraform the world and your role in it. 

It's worth watching.

Ultimately, I believe AI is simply another vehicle freeing human nature. As AI does what humans used to ... you have an opportunity to choose what to do with the freedom you get.  Will you relax or lift your gaze to something better?  The choice is yours.

Similarly, some will want to direct new AI capabilities towards things they want to monetize better.  Others will want to weaponize AI.  Still others will use it to spread peace and love. 

You've seen it with nuclear power (and a host of other technological capabilities) ... tools aren't good or bad in and of themselves - it is what people use those capabilities for that determines their impact. 

Top Influencers (By Platform)

When you ask children what they want to be, many likely say YouTuber, Influencer, or some other variant of that theme.

Influence is a complicated thing. From an abstract perspective, it's the ability to affect someone else's behavior. A high schooler can influence their classmates. As entrepreneurs, we can influence our employees, our industry, and more. You can have immense influence over a small number of people or a little bit of influence over many people - both still count as "influence."

But, in this case, many of the most popular influencers aren't famous for changing the world; they are celebrities or just famous for being famous.

Below is a chart of the top 50 "influencers" by social media platform. 

 

via visualcapitalist

In the digital age, it's worth acknowledging social reach as power. People with a large platform have the opportunity to exert enormous influence - and it's why you often see the spread of misinformation reach far, fast. 

It would be interesting to see how many of these people use their platforms to be a beacon to their followers (rather than a beacon to attract followers).

It would also be interesting to see how much (or little) engagement many of these "influencers" actually have with their followers (and how that level of engagement relates to the growth or decay of their followings). 

While I assume that the readers of this post aren't in the business of being "Influencers,"  Most of us recognize the value of influence – and getting more of it.

As a result, it is probably worth thinking about influence as an asset.  And now is time to think strategically about how to grow and use that asset better. 

Learning from What Pro Sports Teams Do Right

I am writing this while flying back from watching a Cincinnati Reds game in their Owner’s Box.

It was a great experience – and reminded me of how much you can learn from watching what professional sports teams do.  

Frankly, the whole business of professional sports fascinates me.  

They have to do so many things right … just to compete. This includes how they build and manage their team, cultivate their brand, support their communities and causes … as well as how well they handle the practical realities of the logistical, operational, and financial challenges they deal with constantly.  

It is more than a business.  For the most successful, it is a mission or stewardship.

Personally, I pay attention to football more than other sports.

In 2017, I lightheartedly questioned the future of the NFL as a result of bad press around concussions, crimes, and more.  I questioned it as a fan that's been a season ticket holder for as long as I can remember.  My Dad and I had season tickets to the Eagles when I was young, and to the Patriots when I was a teenager. Recently, I’ve been a Cowboys season ticket holder for over 30 years. I questioned it knowing that the NFL wasn't really at risk. To support that assessment of the NFL’s stability, consider that (despite quarantine) the league-wise Season Ticket renewal rate is at 92%… equaling a 5-yr high. 

Part of the stability stems from doing so many things right (or at least well).  Which takes us back to the point that you can learn a lot from how sports teams thrive. 

There's a lot to learn not only from the NFL's longevity, but from what it's like to be a part of a team, from the coaching, and the management side of things. 

Some of these lessons stem back to youth football ... which I’m reminded of each time I get to  watch a Dallas Cowboys practice at The Star.

Think about it, even in middle school, the coaches have a game plan. There are team practices and individual drills. They have a depth chart, which lists the first, second, and third choice to fill certain roles. In short, they focus on the fundamentals in a way that most businesses don't.

The picture, below, is of my brother's high school team way back in 1989.

 

Is it possible that most businesses are less prepared to win than an 8th-grade football team? At first, that may sound like hyperbole, but if you think about it ... it's likely true. 

Losing to an 8th-Grade Team

 

Even middle school and high school teams have a playbook for offense, defense, and special teams.  They scout opponents and create game plans.  They think about how to improve and coach the team … and each player.  They strategize and drill to perform well each game.  Meanwhile, they also work to string together wins to achieve a higher goal. 

Contrast that with many businesses.

Entrepreneurs often get myopic ... they get focused on today (or survival), and they often lose sight of the bigger picture and how all the pieces fit together. 

The amount of thought that goes into football - which is ultimately a game - is a valuable lesson for business. 

If an 8th-grade football team is equivalent to a normal business, what would happen to a business that operated similar to an NFL team?

Practice Makes Perfect

How you do one thing is how you do everything. So, they try to do everything right. 

Each time I've watched a Cowboys practice session, I've come away impressed by the amount of preparation, effort, and skill displayed.

During practice, there's a scheduled agenda. The practice is broken into chunks, and each chunk has a designed purpose and a desired intensity. There's a rhythm, even to the breaks.

Every minute is scripted. There's a long-term plan to handle the season ... but, there was also a focus on the short-term details and their current opponent.

They alternate between individual and group drills. Moreover, the drills run fast ... but for shorter time periods than you'd guess. It is bang-bang-bang – never longer than a millennial's attention span. And they move from drill to drill – working not just on plays, but the skillsets as well (where are you looking, which foot do you plant, how do you best use your hands, etc.).

They use advanced technology (including advanced player monitoring, biometric tracking, and medical recovery devices ... but also things like robotic tackling dummies and virtual reality headsets). 

They don't just film games, they film the practices ... and each individual drill. Coaches and players get a cut of the film on their tablets as soon as they leave. It is a process of constant feedback, constant improvement, or constant renewal. Everything has the potential to be a lesson. 

Beyond The Snap

The focus is not just internal, on the team. They focus on the competition as well. Before a game, the coaches prepare a game plan and have the team watch tape of their opponent in order to understand the tendencies and mentally prepare for what's going to happen.

During the game, changes in personnel groups and schemes keep competitors on their toes and allow the team to identify coverages and predict plays. If the offense realizes a play has been predicted, they call an audible based on what they see in front of them. Coaches from different hierarchies work in tandem to respond faster to new problems. 

After the game, the film is reviewed in detail. Each person gets a grade on each play, and the coaches make notes for each person about what they did well and what they could do better.

Think about it ... everyone knows what game they are playing ... and for the most part, everybody understands the rules, and how to keep score (and even where they are in the standings). Even the coaches get feedback based on performance, and they look to others for guidance. 

Imagine how easy that would be to do in business. Imagine how much better things could be if you did those things.

Challenge accepted!

Confirmation Bias 101

Echo chambers and confirmation bias aren't new.

Recently, however, it seems that we are increasingly presented with issues divided into polar opposite points of view, with little to no tolerance for disagreement. 

Nonetheless, not all topics need to be debated or negotiated. 

Sometimes, a fact is a fact.

Hopefully, this video won't step on any toes - but if you're a "flat earther," I wouldn't watch. 

Here's a clip from Behind The Curve (a documentary on the flat earth society) that I think perfectly shows confirmation bias. 

 

via Behind The Curve

Start with the evidence and then form a conclusion. Doing that in reverse doesn't tend to work out as well.

As a polite reminder, if a conspiracy relies on millions of people (as well as different countries and organizations) to all commit to the disinformation campaign ... it's not likely true.

As Occam's razor states, the simplest explanation is often the correct one. 

Speaking At The 13th Annual Rocky Mountain Economic Summit

The Rocky Mountain Economic Summit is one of my favorite events to attend each year.  It is hosted by the Global Interdependence Center and the Bronze Buffalo Club just outside Jackson Hole, Wyoming. 

Major media outlets like Bloomberg, Forbes, and Reuters cover the event live.

This year, some of the key speakers included Paul Ryan, Megan Greene, David Kotok, John Silvia, and Paul McCulley. 

I had the pleasure of speaking during their session on Cybersecurity and AI. The Global Interdependence Center also recorded our session, so I'm thankful to share it with you here. Let me know what you think. 

 

The mood was pretty optimistic and bullish. As you might expect, there was a growing interest in crypto and blockchain … and a growing sense of “us versus them” directed at China and Russia. We live in interesting times!

If you want to download my presentation slides, you can do that here. 

Mindset Matters – When the Revolution Comes Knocking

Last week, we talked about the future of AI and the potential for AI to start taking over some jobs (freeing humans to raise their chins and do something better and more meaningful).

One of the key factors I talked about was "mindset." For example, consider whether you’re in a scarcity or abundance mindset? If you are in a scarcity mindset, that probably means you see life as a finite pie with only so many slices ... and if someone else gets a big slice (or something new interrupts you getting your slice), you worry that you might not get what you deserve.  On the other hand, an abundance mindset recognizes that there’s plenty out there for everybody, and if there’s no more pie, we can always create new pies (or something better).

I have a picture in my conference room that says energy might be the most important thing to measure.

via GapingVoid

Yes, it means what it sounds like - but, for us, it also means more. 

We use A.I. to trade.  So, measuring performance is important.  But so are all sorts of production, efficiency, and effectiveness measures. 

There are hundreds of important metrics we track day-to-day.  Energy impacts many of them (and absolutely affects your ability to respond to change). 

Energy affects how you feel, what you do, and what you make things mean.  Consequently, energy is an effective way to measure your values too.

We’ve seen numerous inflection points in the past with the introduction of electricity, and then the assembly line and the industrial revolution, with the internet, and now with AI.

There’s always disruption, and there’s always pain, but your mindset and energy can radically change what that means to you ... and what you choose to do.

AI is coming.  Disruption is coming!  It's no longer simply possible; it's not even just probable; it is inevitable.   With that said, what you make it mean and how you respond is up to you.

In a prior post, I shared a mindset scorecard I created at Genius Network.

Normally, Genius Network is private, and these recordings are for internal use only; but I asked permission to share my impromptu session with you. 

Check it out. In the first 5 minutes, I introduce the scorecard concept. For the next 10 minutes, you'll get an extra look at the resulting group discussion. 

 

Think of each comparison as a spectrum. They're not necessarily "one-or-the-other," but they can help identify where you are on the scale of "what to avoid" versus "what you want."

• Blaming <-----> Encouraging
• Insistent <-----> Inspirational
• Fearful <-----> Abundant
• Steadfast <-----> Curious
• Clogging <-----> Cleansing
• Resentful <-----> Grateful
• Zero-Sum <-----> Relational
• Small-Minded <-----> Visionary

These words mean something to me, but they may need tooling to work for you. Changing the names, the order of the comparisons, the number of comparisons, etc., can have a profound effect on the usefulness of this scorecard to you. 

I encourage you to think about how you could use this scorecard and how you can bring attention to those people and actions that best embody the traits that are important to you or your business.

Identifying the words you want to embody and the person you want to be can help make you responsive to change and a better version of yourself.

Hope that helps.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 11th, 2021

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Video: Richard Branson's Space Flight Takes Off. (Flipboard)
• Bezos and Branson are Going To Space! Or Maybe Not. (Wired)
• Kosher Lab-Grown Pork from Israel's Growing Cultured Meat Sector. (JPost)
• Death Rates are Declining For Many Common Cancers In the U.S., Report Finds. (StatNews)
• How a Lizard's Venom Inspired the Promising Weight Loss Drug Wegovy. (Vox)

 

Trading Links:

• The Meme Stock Trade is Far From Over. What Investors Need To Know. (Barrons)
• 7 Upcoming IPOs To Watch In the Second Half of 2021. (BankRate)
• For the First Time, the Fed Flags Crypto Prices as a National Financial Risk. (Fortune)
• The S&P 500 Could Drop Sharply in the 3rd Quarter as the '5 P's' Pressure Markets, Bank of America Says. (Markets)
• Shaquille O'Neal Shuts Down the Internet with His Financial Portfolio, Owns Forever 21, Elvis Presley, and Much More. (ABS)

 

Enter The Hivemind

It can be hard to visualize AI.

You might imagine something based on pop culture references of virtual lifeforms with sentience and free will ... but, at least for now, that's far from the truth.

Here's an infographic debunking 8 common AI myths.

Modern AI does many things and has many applications, but it's still relatively primitive. It works in the background, silently collecting vast amounts of data, and performs increasing amounts of work.

AI may not currently compare with the Star Trek character Data, yet it already is transforming our economy at warp speed.  For a recent example, McDonald's is now doing a 10-store pilot replacing their human drive-thru attendants with AI. 

Some current uses of AI and robotics are genuinely impressive.  Here's a video taking you into "The Hive" a supermarket warehouse run by a "Hivemind" AI. With thousands of "bots" and various other forms of AI and technology, this will give you a glimpse of the future of AI and automation. 

via Tom Scott

This system is from Ocado in the UK. If you want more info, here is an article from Forbes about it.

Pretty cool! 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - June 27th, 2021

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Why is Cognitive Flexibility Important and How Can You Improve It? (WEForum)
• The Perfect Number of Hours to Work Every Day? Five. (Wired)
• Artist Sells Invisible Sculpture for Over $18K. (NYPost)
• Check Out the Rotation of the Earth from a Whole New Perspective. (Flipboard)
• CRISPR Injected into the Blood Treats a Genetic Disease for First Time. (ScienceMag)

 

 

Trading Links:

• The Global IPO Market Has Never Been Hotter Than It is Right Now. (Bloomberg)
• Banks Will Double Their Capital Return After Successful Stress Test, No. 1 Analyst Mayo Says. (CNBC)
• Hotels and Restaurants' Rebound Summer Held Back by Shortages of Everything. (Wall Street Journal)
• Feds Accelerating Crypto World Crackdown. (FoxBusiness)
• Virgin Galactic Gets Official Clearance to Start Flying Paying Customers to Space. (Gizmodo)

 

A New Experience For Me

We had Nick Nanton and his crew in our office, recently, to film for a documentary on 'Getting to Next' – How AI is transforming the world and humanizing technology. 

 

Nick has been involved with many cool projects from a documentary on Peter Diamandis to Operation Underground Railroad (and more). He's also won more than 20 Emmys. 

Nick is also working on a documentary with Chris Voss - who wrote Never Split the Difference. I spent time in D.C. watching Nick shoot with Chris and his son Brandon Voss, who is the president of Black Swan Group. 

While I've done podcasts and interviews before, this was a surprisingly fun and cool experience for me.

It was also interesting to watch some of our more introverted data scientists in front of the camera. 

The documentary just started shooting - but I look forward to showing you the finished product when it's ready.