Capitalogix

Happy Mother's Day

 To those of you with young children, here's a peek into your future.

After years of hard work and your best efforts (OK, mostly your best efforts) ... I predict that your adorable bundles of joy will someday wish they could send you this card.

So, take a moment to think about your Mom ... and remember that she was very young when she did those things to you ...

... and what you make them mean is up to you.

Here's a funny clip from SNL in honor of Mother's Day.

 

via SNL

Hope you celebrated all the important mothers in your life. And, to the mothers, I hope the people around you recognize how much you sacrificed for them. 

Happy Mother's Day. 

Batteries Not Included

Mercedes-Benz might have a sense of humor.

They lent Saturday Night Live a C-Class for a parody TV commercial that makes fun of battery-powered cars.

The 2-minute video, starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus, shows a car that runs on AA batteries (which is why the car is called the Mercedes AA Class). 

Here is the video.

via SNL

One of the highlighted features, the "Auto-Dump," helps you discharge worn-out batteries ... all 9,648 of them.

The video ends with the disclaimer: "Batteries not included."

I hope you had a fun April Fool's Day.

Changing the Course of History

A little over a week ago, a deepfake of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was used to try and convince Ukraine's soldiers to lay down their arms and surrender against Russia.  On top of being shared on social media, hackers got it onto news sites and a TV ticker as well. 

While it's not explicitly known that Russia did this – there's a long history of Russian cyberwarfare, including many instances of media manipulation. 

Luckily, while the lip-sync was okay in this video, several cues helped us know it was fake. 

Unfortunately, this is only the tip of the iceberg.  Many deepfakes aren't as easy to discern.  Consequently, as we fight wars (both physical and cultural), manipulated videos will increasingly alter both perceptions and reality. 

Even when proven to be fake, the damage can persist.  Some people might believe it anyway ... while others may begin distrusting all videos from leaders as potential misinformation. 

That being said, not all deepfakes are malicious, and the potential for the technology is attractive.  Production companies are already using it to splice in actors who might have aged or died into scenes in movies.  Deepfake technology can also be used to allow a celebrity to sell their likeness without having to waste their time doing all the filming necessary to produce the intended finished product. 

Deepfake technology also allows us to create glimpses into potential pasts or futures.  For example, On July 20th, 1969, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landed safely on the moon.  They then returned to Earth safely as well.   What if they didn't?  MIT recently created a deepfake of a speech Nixon's speechwriter William Safire wrote during the Apollo 11 mission in case of disaster.  The whole video is worth watching, but the "fake history" speech starts around the 4:20 mark. 

"Fate has ordained that the men who went to the moon to explore in peace will stay on the moon to rest in peace." - Nixon's Apollo 11 Disaster Speech

 

MIT via In Event Of Moon Disaster

Conclusion

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped.“ - Orwell, 1984

In an ideal world, history would be objective; facts about what happened, unencumbered by the bias of society, or the victor, the narrator, etc.  On some level, however, history is written by the winners.  Think about it ... perceived "truth" is shaped by the bias and perspectives of the chronicler.

Consequently, history (as we know it) is subjective.  The narrative shifts to support the needs of the society that's reporting it. 

The Cold War with the Soviet Union was a great example.  During the war, immediately thereafter, and even today, the interpretation of what transpired has repeatedly changed (both here and there).  The truth is that we are uncertain about what we are certain about.

But while that was one example, to a certain degree, we can see this type of phenomenon everywhere.  Yes, we're even seeing it again with Russia.

But it runs deeper than cyber-warfare.  News stations color the story told based on whether they're red or blue, and the internet is quick to jump on a bandwagon even if the information is hearsay.  The goal is attention rather than truth.

Media disinformation is more dangerous than ever.  Alternative history can only be called that when it's discernible from the truth ... and unfortunately, we're prone to look for information that already fits our biases. 

As deepfakes get better, we'll likely get better at detecting them.  But it's a cat-and-mouse game with no end in sight.  Signaling Theory posits that signalers evolve to become better at manipulating receivers, while receivers become more resistant to manipulation. 

I'm excited about the possibilities of technology, even though new capabilities present us with both promise and peril. 

Meanwhile, "Change" and "Human Nature" remain constant.

And so we go.

No Crying In Trading

As a fund manager, I am always looking for ways to eliminate emotions (like fear and greed).  During crazy times, like these, that is harder than seems.

But as a father whose son just got married, the equation was different.  It's been six years since I originally shared this video; but as we near their wedding anniversary, I re-watched this video ... and decided to share it again. 

One of my son's instructions to the "Officiant" was to make me cry.  I made it through the Ceremony; then, I got a chance to say a few words at the Wedding Reception.  Here they are …

 

The words "I love you" are powerful.  Most people consider it an expression of emotion.  It can also be a promise …

Cowboys Are Out of the Playoffs Again

It's always exciting for me to watch the Cowboys make the playoffs. Meanwhile, yesterday, the San Francisco 49ers ended the Cowboys season in the first round of the playoffs. 

Only one team can win the Super Bowl.  I know that.  Yet, most seasons, somehow, I expect the Cowboys to have a real chance.  That form of hope and wishful thinking comes with being a fan. 

Whether you like football or not, one thing we can probably agree about is that geriatric white dudes shouldn't rap. At least ... that's what my kids tell me when I try. 

Unfortunately, Cowboys owner, Jerry Jones,  didn't get the memo. 

Here is the video.

 

Hopefully, our season (next year) will be better than that video. 

For another light-hearted NFL video, here is an oldy, but goodie.

It is kind of the opposite of one of those old Kung Fu movies where the dubbed words you hear aren't synched with the mouth movement. 

Here it looks like they are saying what you hear … it's just that someone changed the words.  You could call it "So THAT'S what they were saying …"

 This video works for the same reason trading often doesn't … Humans are great at finding patterns (even when there isn't really a pattern to find).

Regardless, this was fun (and it's gotten over 70 million views on YouTube).

 

 

It's That Time of Year ...

Gift-giving is certainly an art more than a science. 

As many of you start making your final purchases for the year, I thought you might enjoy these parodies from SNL. 

Considering buying her a car?

via SNL

What about some clothes for your children?

 

via SNL

And, while you're out doing all of your shopping, you might need a little pick-me-up. Why not some Dunkin?

 

via SNL

Hope you have a good week.

The Promise And Peril of AI with Alan Olsen

In 2017, I shot my first video with Alan Olsen. Alan is a wealth manager to the ultra-affluent.  His American Dreams show is immensely popular with the High-Net-Worth demographic in Silicon Valley.

Alan's show is about finding your path in life, and what it takes to make businesses thrive through adversity and challenging times. 

In my first video with him, we talked about defining a meaningful life. We started by talking about my career path from a young lawyer to spending over 25 years running tech companies ... and the lessons learned along the way.

I recently shot a new video with him – this time on the promise and peril of AI. It has over 3,500 Likes on YouTube.  Watch it here.

 

via The American Dreams Show

The main issue addressed during the video is how you can best get what you want as the world changes and forces like AI terraform the world and your role in it. 

It's worth watching.

Ultimately, I believe AI is simply another vehicle freeing human nature. As AI does what humans used to ... you have an opportunity to choose what to do with the freedom you get.  Will you relax or lift your gaze to something better?  The choice is yours.

Similarly, some will want to direct new AI capabilities towards things they want to monetize better.  Others will want to weaponize AI.  Still others will use it to spread peace and love. 

You've seen it with nuclear power (and a host of other technological capabilities) ... tools aren't good or bad in and of themselves - it is what people use those capabilities for that determines their impact. 

Top Influencers (By Platform)

When you ask children what they want to be, many likely say YouTuber, Influencer, or some other variant of that theme.

Influence is a complicated thing. From an abstract perspective, it's the ability to affect someone else's behavior. A high schooler can influence their classmates. As entrepreneurs, we can influence our employees, our industry, and more. You can have immense influence over a small number of people or a little bit of influence over many people - both still count as "influence."

But, in this case, many of the most popular influencers aren't famous for changing the world; they are celebrities or just famous for being famous.

Below is a chart of the top 50 "influencers" by social media platform. 

 

via visualcapitalist

In the digital age, it's worth acknowledging social reach as power. People with a large platform have the opportunity to exert enormous influence - and it's why you often see the spread of misinformation reach far, fast. 

It would be interesting to see how many of these people use their platforms to be a beacon to their followers (rather than a beacon to attract followers).

It would also be interesting to see how much (or little) engagement many of these "influencers" actually have with their followers (and how that level of engagement relates to the growth or decay of their followings). 

While I assume that the readers of this post aren't in the business of being "Influencers,"  Most of us recognize the value of influence – and getting more of it.

As a result, it is probably worth thinking about influence as an asset.  And now is time to think strategically about how to grow and use that asset better. 

Learning from What Pro Sports Teams Do Right

I am writing this while flying back from watching a Cincinnati Reds game in their Owner’s Box.

It was a great experience – and reminded me of how much you can learn from watching what professional sports teams do.  

Frankly, the whole business of professional sports fascinates me.  

They have to do so many things right … just to compete. This includes how they build and manage their team, cultivate their brand, support their communities and causes … as well as how well they handle the practical realities of the logistical, operational, and financial challenges they deal with constantly.  

It is more than a business.  For the most successful, it is a mission or stewardship.

Personally, I pay attention to football more than other sports.

In 2017, I lightheartedly questioned the future of the NFL as a result of bad press around concussions, crimes, and more.  I questioned it as a fan that's been a season ticket holder for as long as I can remember.  My Dad and I had season tickets to the Eagles when I was young, and to the Patriots when I was a teenager. Recently, I’ve been a Cowboys season ticket holder for over 30 years. I questioned it knowing that the NFL wasn't really at risk. To support that assessment of the NFL’s stability, consider that (despite quarantine) the league-wise Season Ticket renewal rate is at 92%… equaling a 5-yr high. 

Part of the stability stems from doing so many things right (or at least well).  Which takes us back to the point that you can learn a lot from how sports teams thrive. 

There's a lot to learn not only from the NFL's longevity, but from what it's like to be a part of a team, from the coaching, and the management side of things. 

Some of these lessons stem back to youth football ... which I’m reminded of each time I get to  watch a Dallas Cowboys practice at The Star.

Think about it, even in middle school, the coaches have a game plan. There are team practices and individual drills. They have a depth chart, which lists the first, second, and third choice to fill certain roles. In short, they focus on the fundamentals in a way that most businesses don't.

The picture, below, is of my brother's high school team way back in 1989.

 

Is it possible that most businesses are less prepared to win than an 8th-grade football team? At first, that may sound like hyperbole, but if you think about it ... it's likely true. 

Losing to an 8th-Grade Team

 

Even middle school and high school teams have a playbook for offense, defense, and special teams.  They scout opponents and create game plans.  They think about how to improve and coach the team … and each player.  They strategize and drill to perform well each game.  Meanwhile, they also work to string together wins to achieve a higher goal. 

Contrast that with many businesses.

Entrepreneurs often get myopic ... they get focused on today (or survival), and they often lose sight of the bigger picture and how all the pieces fit together. 

The amount of thought that goes into football - which is ultimately a game - is a valuable lesson for business. 

If an 8th-grade football team is equivalent to a normal business, what would happen to a business that operated similar to an NFL team?

Practice Makes Perfect

How you do one thing is how you do everything. So, they try to do everything right. 

Each time I've watched a Cowboys practice session, I've come away impressed by the amount of preparation, effort, and skill displayed.

During practice, there's a scheduled agenda. The practice is broken into chunks, and each chunk has a designed purpose and a desired intensity. There's a rhythm, even to the breaks.

Every minute is scripted. There's a long-term plan to handle the season ... but, there was also a focus on the short-term details and their current opponent.

They alternate between individual and group drills. Moreover, the drills run fast ... but for shorter time periods than you'd guess. It is bang-bang-bang – never longer than a millennial's attention span. And they move from drill to drill – working not just on plays, but the skillsets as well (where are you looking, which foot do you plant, how do you best use your hands, etc.).

They use advanced technology (including advanced player monitoring, biometric tracking, and medical recovery devices ... but also things like robotic tackling dummies and virtual reality headsets). 

They don't just film games, they film the practices ... and each individual drill. Coaches and players get a cut of the film on their tablets as soon as they leave. It is a process of constant feedback, constant improvement, or constant renewal. Everything has the potential to be a lesson. 

Beyond The Snap

The focus is not just internal, on the team. They focus on the competition as well. Before a game, the coaches prepare a game plan and have the team watch tape of their opponent in order to understand the tendencies and mentally prepare for what's going to happen.

During the game, changes in personnel groups and schemes keep competitors on their toes and allow the team to identify coverages and predict plays. If the offense realizes a play has been predicted, they call an audible based on what they see in front of them. Coaches from different hierarchies work in tandem to respond faster to new problems. 

After the game, the film is reviewed in detail. Each person gets a grade on each play, and the coaches make notes for each person about what they did well and what they could do better.

Think about it ... everyone knows what game they are playing ... and for the most part, everybody understands the rules, and how to keep score (and even where they are in the standings). Even the coaches get feedback based on performance, and they look to others for guidance. 

Imagine how easy that would be to do in business. Imagine how much better things could be if you did those things.

Challenge accepted!

Confirmation Bias 101

Echo chambers and confirmation bias aren't new.

Recently, however, it seems that we are increasingly presented with issues divided into polar opposite points of view, with little to no tolerance for disagreement. 

Nonetheless, not all topics need to be debated or negotiated. 

Sometimes, a fact is a fact.

Hopefully, this video won't step on any toes - but if you're a "flat earther," I wouldn't watch. 

Here's a clip from Behind The Curve (a documentary on the flat earth society) that I think perfectly shows confirmation bias. 

 

via Behind The Curve

Start with the evidence and then form a conclusion. Doing that in reverse doesn't tend to work out as well.

As a polite reminder, if a conspiracy relies on millions of people (as well as different countries and organizations) to all commit to the disinformation campaign ... it's not likely true.

As Occam's razor states, the simplest explanation is often the correct one.