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Predicting The Future With Arthur C Clarke

Last week, I shared a couple of videos that attempted to predict the future. As a result, someone sent me a video of Arthur C Clarke's predictions that I thought was worth sharing.

Arthur C Clarke was a fantastic science fiction writer and a famous futurist. You probably know him as the author of 2001: A Space Odyssey.

Here are his predictions from 1964, nearly 60 years ago.

 

via BBC Archive 

Arthur C. Clarke had a profound impact on the way we imagine the future. Known for his remarkable predictions, Clarke's ideas may have seemed farfetched at times, yet his thoughts on the future and the art of making predictions were grounded in reason.

If a prophet from the 1960s were to describe today's technological advancements in exaggerated terms, their predictions would sound equally ridiculous. The only certainty about the future is that it will be fantastical beyond belief, a sentiment Clarke understood well.

You can be a great futurist even if many of your predictions are off in execution, but correct in direction. For example, Clarke predicted that the advancements in communication would potentially make cities nonexistent. While cities still exist - in much the same way as in the 1960s - people can now work, live, and make a massive difference in their companies from anywhere on the planet, even from a van traveling around the country. Global communication is so easy that it's taken for granted. 

As a science fiction author, some of what he wrote about might seem ridiculous today. For example, super-monkey servants creating trade unions.  Much of what he wrote about was what could happen (and to provide a way for people to think about the consequences of their actions and inactions).  As we discussed last week, humans often recognize big changes on the horizon ... but they rarely correctly anticipate the consequences. 

In summary, even though some of Clarke's predictions were farfetched, they were rooted in a deep understanding of human potential and the transformative power of technology. His ability to envision a fantastical future was not only a testament to his imagination, but also served as an inspiration for generations of scientists, engineers, and dreamers. By embracing the unknown and acknowledging the inherent uncertainty of the future, we can continue to push the boundaries of what is possible and strive for a world that is truly beyond belief.

You won't always be 100% correct, but you'll be much closer than if you reject what's coming. 

Can We Predict The Future?!

New technologies fascinate me ... As we approach the Singularity, I guess that is becoming human nature. 

Second Thought has put together a video that looks at various predictions from the early 1900s. It is a fun watch – Check it out. 

via Second Thought

It's interesting to look at what they strategically got right compared to what was tactically different. 

In a 1966 interview, Marshall McLuhan discussed the future of information with ideas that now resonate with AI technologies. He envisioned personalized information, where people request specific knowledge and receive tailored content. This concept has become a reality through AI-powered chatbots like ChatGPT, which can provide customized information based on user inputs.

Although McLuhan was against innovation, he recognized the need to understand emerging trends to maintain control and know when to "turn off the button." 

In 1966, media futurist Marshall McLuhan envisioned a form of digital research eerily similar to the customized queries now answered by AI. Then he makes a surprising admission about why he studies technological change—with a lesson I think many need to hear. pic.twitter.com/yEBJv95GvP

— Benjamin Carlson (@bfcarlson) March 22, 2023

While not all predictions are made equal, we seem to have a better idea of what we want than how to accomplish it. 

The farther the horizon, the more guesswork is involved. Compared to the prior video on predictions from the mid-1900s, this video on the internet from 1995 seems downright prophetic. 

via YouTube

There's a lesson there. It's hard to predict the future, but that doesn't mean you can't skate to where the puck is moving. Even if the path ahead is unsure, it's relatively easy to pick your next step, and then the step in front of that. As long as you are moving in the right direction and keep taking steps without stopping, the result is inevitable. 

Merry Chrismakkuh

Today is Christmas ... and it is also the last night of Chanukah.  So, Merry Christmas and Happy Chanukah!  And Happy Festivus to anyone who doesn't celebrate either. 

For those that don't know, Chanukah is the Jewish festival of lights.  This is the holiday that involves lighting the Menorah (Chanukah candles), eating latkes (potato pancakes), exchanging gifts, playing spin the Dreidel (a gambling game), and enjoying a sense of family togetherness for eight days and nights.

That's a long time, right?!  Well, sometimes it seems even longer with my family. 

To help you stay in the right mood, here is a video of "The Chanukah Song," performed by comedian Adam Sandler on Saturday Night Live.  It became an instant classic (and he has since released a second, third, and fourth version.)

Here is the video.  And, if you're feeling left out - here's Adam Sandler's Christmas Song.

The cynic in me believes merchants invented the gift part of the holiday.

Regardless, the Capitalogix team has been festive, and the office has been filled with holiday cheer.  Here is a picture that some of the team took after our ugly sweater contest.

I hope you're having a wonderful celebration surrounded by people you love and food that would make your cardiologist feel safe buying a new Porche.

The Swish Machine

Rube Goldberg machines impress me more often than not. Here's a 70-step outdoor machine that covers a lot of ground ... all to put a basketball in a hoop. It took a month to create, and another month to get working. 

 

via Creezy

I love stuff like this because it reminds me of life. Looking backward, you see how all the pieces go together. As you're going through it, it feels random and sometimes like you're moving backward or that your effort isn't directly contributing to your goal.

Nonetheless, it all comes together in the end.

Onwards!  

Bruce Willis Deepfake: The Smart Decision?

Bruce Willis is a legend of cinema, and he made many of my favorite movies of the 80s and 90s. He stayed relevant and exciting up until very recently. 

Then, last year, he started releasing a slew of disappointing "straight-to-DVD" style movies that had him receiving his own award show category in the Razzies (an award show for the worst performances of the year). In 2021, they created the category "worst performance by Bruce Willis in a 2021 movie." 

Vulture did an interesting interview with the founders of the Razzies where Bruce Willis comes up. 

Then, it came out that Bruce Willis was diagnosed with Aphasia and was losing his ability to speak. 

Suddenly, these pieces take on new meaning. They're Bruce getting as much work in as he can before he loses his voice permanently. He's trying to do what he knows how to do to make sure his wife and children are taken care of after he can no longer act. 

It doesn't make the movies suddenly "great" but it was enough to get the Razzies to rescind their award. 

I don't believe these last films of his dampen his well-earned legacy. 

Last year, his digital twin showed up in a Russian telecom ad. 

 

 
Recently, he's been in the news again for having sold his likeness to a deepfake company. It was reported on the company's website and by The Telegraph, but there are now claims to the contrary as well. 

While the jury is still out on if his rights have been sold, I think it's likely you'll see more Bruce Willis deepfake content. 

The question becomes, is it the right decision?

If his estate still has final approval - and there is quality control - then what's the harm?

Does the potential ubiquity, or the idea that we can always have another Bruce Willis movie, reduce the value of his movies?

Does allowing deepfakes in cinema (on TV or in film) take away roles from actors who might become stars?

We've already seen actors use deepfakes to reprise a role they did when they were younger - like Luke Skywalker or Leia from Star Wars. It's a different idea to build a new series around an actor who isn't actually acting in it. 

These questions pair well with the discussion around AI-generated art and whether it should be considered art. 

What do you think? 

Finding Ikigai In Increasingly Stressful Times

I just read that they sell more adult diapers than baby diapers in Japan.

Getting old is tough ... and it gets tougher the older you get.   As a result, finding your 'reasons for being' and joy in life become increasingly important. 

The past couple of years have been a period of massive upheaval for many.  Reasons for this include stress, change, pandemics, quarantine, new jobs, new goals ... or, at the other end of the spectrum, lack of change, lack of a job, or lack of purpose.

Most people know that life is much better than the alternative (and that life becomes even better when you learn to enjoy living and let go of what isn't serving you).  Consequently, it makes sense to understand and search for the things that bring you pleasure or fulfillment.

A Japanese concept called "Ikigai" may help better define your motivating force and the things that give you a sense of purpose or a reason for living.

Ikigai centers around finding purpose as you grow older.  Paradoxically, it makes sense to start the process as early as possible. 

Here is an infographic that lays out some "Reasons for Being."

via InformationIsBeautiful

Finding your "reason to be" and living with purpose are keys to making the most of your time.

The beauty of 2022 being a fresh start is that you can also change your approach and your vision.

The graphic highlights something interesting (yet almost counter-intuitive) ... When two areas intersect, it creates something positive (e.g., a passion or a mission).   However, where three areas intersect, it creates a pain point (for example, it could be what you're good at, you love doing it, the world needs it ... but it doesn't make you any money – so now you're struggling).

Worth examining and thinking about for a bit.

On a related note, this TEDx talks about the nine common diet and lifestyle habits that help people live past 100.

 

TED-ED via YouTube

And here is a link to Dan Sullivan's free e-book on his plan to live to 156. 

Live long and prosper!

First Photos From the Webb Telescope

The Hubble Telescope was conceived of in the 1940s, but launched in 1990. It revolutionized our ability to see the complexities of the universe. 

Now, the Webb Telescope is taking it to the next level. 

via NASA

The picture above shows the "Cosmic Cliffs," which is actually the edge of a young Nebula called Carina. 

Below, is a picture of a cluster of galaxies called Stephan's Quintet. 

via NASA

Not only does this help us see far away systems that we've never seen before, but it also provides detail to the things we have seen.

First, bring order to chaos …. Then, wisdom comes from making finer distinctions.  With that in mind, I'm excited to see how this drives the future of science. 

Here's a brief video from Neil Degrasse Tyson on the new telescope. 

 

via NBC News

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 17th, 2022

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Biden is Very Unpopular. It May Not Tell Us Much About the Midterms. (FiveThirtyEight)
• The 23 Best New Productivity Apps for 2022. (FastCompany)
• Meet the Man Keeping Blockbuster Alive. (DallasNews)
• Was Warfare Responsible for the Origin of Complex Civilisation? (NewScientist)
• Create an Action Figure Version of Yourself With Hasbro's "Selfie Series". (Hypebae)

 

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• Does Elon Musk Have a Strategy? (HBR)
• JPMorgan CEO Dimon Sums up U.S. Economy in One Paragraph And It Sounds Bad. (CNBC)
• Where Did the Stock Market's $7 Trillion Loss in Value Go? (Marketplace)
• The Speedy Downfall of Rapid Delivery Startups. (Wired)
• Why Hasn't the Russian Economy Tanked Yet? Putin Has Been Preparing for this Moment for Years. (Fortune)

 

 

 

"Earl, Honey"

 

My first wife (and mother of my children) Denise is a smart and talented author.  I still remember the first time she asked me to read an early copy of her work.  She never let me do it again. 

That being said, she recently released a new book, Earl, Honey.  The book is loosely based on the real story of her family history.  I enjoyed it.  It's a southern coming-of-age story set in the 1920s - which is not my typical genre.  Nevertheless, it's a poignant story with insight into the human condition, and its dramatic realities remind us how good we have it. 

It's a story she learned, first via her grandmother, long after the events of the book take place.  Those events shaped the lives of generations of her family. 

It's a tough and heart-wrenching Southern Gothic read that covers incest, domestic abuse, and more.  Check it out. 

Here's the book's blurb from Amazon:

"Ever since Pa hit him in the head with the two-by-four, Earl had lived with blinders on. Not real blinders, of course, because that would be foolish. It was his own brain that blinkered him."

Earl Hahn is slow, the last one to catch on to things. Since the day his father hit him in the head with a 2x4 of loblolly pine, he's struggled with a "thickness in his brain." It takes him longer to make the connections others arrive at easily. When his father is prosecuted for the crime of incest, it feels like deliverance for Earl, his mother Lizzie Belle, and the entire Hahn family. Unfortunately, his father's abhorrent actions are not done exacting a price.

Everyone in the household will pay for their patriarch's crimes - no one more than Earl.

So begins a powerful coming-of-age tale about a shy, damaged boy who must overcome unimaginable personal tragedy - both as its victim and its perpetrator. Raw, honest, and filled with heart, Earl, Honey recounts an extraordinary search for redemption amid the perilous world of the 1920s American South.

 

Don't Touch That Dial

History may not repeat itself exactly ... but it often rhymes. News stories, however, seem to replicate.

There is nothing wrong with your television. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are now controlling the transmission. We control the horizontal and the vertical. We can deluge you with a thousand channels or expand one single image to crystal clarity and beyond. We can shape your vision to anything our imagination can conceive. - The Outer Limits (1963)

 

via YouTube

It almost feels like an episode of Black Mirror, watching these stations quote the same pre-determined diatribe on fake news and its danger to our democracy.

The very message they are purportedly supporting, in the video above, directly contradicts their actions. 

Most people realize this happens to some degree, but it seems different when presented like this.

I believe I am reasonably aware and somewhat immune from propaganda. That probably isn't as true as I'd like to believe.

Meanwhile, Sinclar Broadcast Group owns nearly 200 stations in 80 different markets and wants to buy more. That is a powerful platform to deliver mass messages and influence the zeitgeist of its audience.

It used to be true that winners wrote history (think empires, wars, etc.). Now, the one that delivers the most broadcast narratives shapes the emotional and seemingly logical responses to what we perceive to be happening around us.

The result impacts elections, financial markets, buying choices, and countless other areas of our life. 

We see and hear it every day about politics, wars, economic issues, and many other things we don't focus on enough to notice.

As A.I., Bots, and social media grow, our ability to discern truth from 'truthiness' weakens. Especially with the growth of deepfakes. 

What do you think about this?