Capitalogix

The Surreal World of Deepfakes And Deep AI

Deep Learning excels in analyzing pictures & videos and creating facsimiles or combining styles.  People are using generative AI tools like ChatGPT or Midjourney increasingly frequently.  And there is an explosion of simple tools (like the Deep Dream Generator or DeepAI) that use Convolutional Neural Networks to combine your photo with an art style (if you want to do it on your phone, check out Prisma).   Here are some example photos.

via SubSubRoutine

The same foundation that allows us to create these cool art amalgamations also can create deepfakes.  A Deepfake is precisely what it sounds like ... they use "Deep Learning" to "Fake" a recording.  For example, a machine learning technique called a Generative Adversarial Network can be used to superimpose images onto a source video.  That is how they made this fun (and disturbing) Deepfake of Jennifer Lawrence and Steve Buscemi.

 

Another interesting technology can create AI-powered replicas of someone that don't just look and sound like them – they can respond like them too.  Examples of this are seen in tools like Replica Studios or Replika.  One of the artistic uses people have been exploring recently is getting unlikely characters to sing famous songs.  These chatbots have also been used by lonely men and women to create virtual paramours. 

The three basic uses of deep learning (described above) are being combined to create a lot of real mainstream applications ... and the potential to create convincing fakes.

Deepfakes can be fun and funny ... but they also create real concerns.  They're frequently used for more "nefarious" purposes (e.g., to create fake celebrity or revenge porn and to make important figures say things they never said).  You've likely seen videos of Trump or Biden created with this technology.   But it is easy to imagine someone faking evidence used at trial, trying to influence business transactions, or using this to support or slander causes in the media.

As fakes get better and easier to produce, they will likely be used more often. 

On a more functional note, you can use these technologies to create convincing replicas of yourself.  You could use that replica to record videos, send voicemails, or participate in virtual meetings for you. While I don't encourage you to use it without telling people you are, even just using the technology puts you a step ahead. 

Is It The News Or Propaganda?

There is nothing wrong with your television.  We will control all that you see and hear. We can deluge you with a thousand channels or expand one single image to crystal clarity and beyond. We can shape your vision to anything our imagination can conceive.  Enjoy ....

 
The original, from The Outer Limits TV show was: 

There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image; make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your television set. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to the outer limits.

As a society, we're fairly vulnerable to groupthink, advertisements, and confirmation bias. 

We believe what we want to believe, so it can be very hard to change a belief, even in the face of contrary evidence. 

Since the past election cycle, we've seen a massive uptick in distrust toward news agencies, big companies, the government, and basically anyone with a particularly large reach. 

To a certain degree, this is understandable and justified. Here is an example of the power of the media focused on a message.  Click to watch.

 

via Courier News

Propaganda has always been an issue, and almost everyone does it; governments, companies, etc. Luckily, it's easier to see today than in the past, but unluckily it's also more pervasive and insidious than before. 

It's to the point where if you watch the news you're misinformed, and if you don't watch the news you're uninformed. 

The above segment portrays a rosy picture of Amazon's efforts to protect its workers while delivering essentials to the struggling homebound masses. This comes while Amazon has come under massive fire for removing some of its protections. 

Honestly, I use Amazon and, in my opinion, this isn't a massive breach of trust. News stations have a lot of time to fill, they often have sponsored content.

That being said, it's something to be cognizant of - not necessarily offended by.

Personally, I believe I am reasonably aware and somewhat immune from propaganda. That probably isn't as true as I'd like to believe.

It used to be true that winners wrote history (think empires, wars, etc.). Now, the one that delivers the most broadcast narratives shapes the emotional and seemingly logical responses to what we perceive to be happening around us.

The result impacts elections, financial markets, buying choices, and countless other areas of our life. 

As A.I., Bots, and social media grow, our ability to discern truth from 'truthiness' weakens. It's becoming even more of an issue with AI-based depictions of presidents in both image and video.

It's a great reminder that what you're seeing and hearing is carefully manufactured, and hopefully, it encourages you to get outside your bubble. 

I think one of the worst consequences of the past few years is the unwillingness of mass swaths of Americans to listen to voices they disagree with. The internet has already created echo chambers, but it's being exacerbated by vitriol. As a result, I think we're seeing the fringe of both parties move further away from the middle. 

What do you think?

Meet The Jetsons: 60 Years Later

Since my last name is Getson, I often get "Jetson" at restaurants.  As the CEO of a tech company focused on innovative technologies, it somehow feels fitting. 

Despite only airing for one season (from 1962-1963), The Jetsons remains a cultural phenomenon.  It supposedly takes place in 2062, but in the story, the family's patriarch (George Jetson) was born on July 31, 2022.  Not too long ago. 

Obviously, this is a whimsical representation of the future - spurred on by fears of the Soviet Union and the space race.  But it captured the imagination of multiple generations of kids.  Flying cars, talking dogs, robot maids, and food printing ... what's not to love?

 

I don't intend to dissect the show about what they got right or wrong, but I do want to briefly examine what they imagined based on where we are today. 

For example, while flying cars aren't ubiquitous yet (like in the Jetsons), we already have driverless cars.  It's likely that by 2062, driverless cars will be pervasive, even if flying cars aren't.  But, frankly, who knows?  That is still possible.

Meanwhile, both George and Jane work very few hours a week due to the increase in technology.  While that's a future we can still envision, despite massive technological improvements, we've chosen to increase productivity (instead of working less and keeping output at 1960 levels).  Even with the expected growth of AI, I still believe that humans will choose to pursue purposeful work.

The Jetsons also underemphasize the wireless nature of today's world.  George still has to go into the office, and while they have video phones, it's still a piece of hardware connected to a wall, instead of mobile and wireless.  2062 is far enough away that holographic displays are still a very real possibility.

Likewise, while we don't yet have complex robot maids (like Rosie), we already have Roombas... and both AI and Robotics are improving exponentially.

Meanwhile, we are in the process of creating cheap and sustainable food printing and drone delivery services ... which makes the Jetsons look oddly prescient. 

And, remember, there are still 40 years for us to continue to make progress.  So, while I think it's doubtful cities will look like the spaceports portrayed in the cartoon ... I suspect that you'll be impressed by how much further we are along than even the Jetsons imagined.

Not only is the rate of innovation increasing, but so is the rate at which that rate increases.  It's exponential. 

We live in exciting times!

Yield of Dreams: Laughing Your Way To Financial Freedom

The movie Field of Dreams came out the year my first son was born. If you haven't seen it, it's a fantastic movie. 

Whether you’ve seen it (or not), you might want to see Charlie Epstein’s a one-man play called Yield of Dreams. 

I put together a quick video on why you should watch it:

>> Click Here to check it out

Many of the people who read my blog, or are subscribed to my newsletter, are either entrepreneurs or in the financial space. While Charlie Epstein moonlights as an actor/comedian, his day job is in financial services. He's incredibly sharp, very knowledgeable ... and yes, a little quirky. 

But that quirkiness is what makes him funny - so much so that you'll be captivated long enough to gain some real value. Charlie does an excellent job teaching people how to do practical things to ensure they have enough money when they retire to live a good life.

More importantly, he helps you think about your mindsets and what you truly want, so you can live the life you've always dreamed of and deserved. And even though I didn't think I needed to learn anything new, I gained a ton of practical value – and you probably will too.

As a bonus, half of the proceeds go toward supporting vets with PTSD.

There aren't many people (or "offers") I'd feel comfortable plugging, but this is one of them. As well, many of the other people I would put in front of you (like Dan Sullivan, Peter Diamandis, and Mike Koenigs) love Charlie as much as I do. 

via Yield of Dreams

So, here's the part I copied from Charlie: In this one-man show you'll discover how to

• Work less while making more than you ever have before
• Make more progress towards your dreams in one year than most people do in ten
• Step into the biggest, boldest and most confident version of yourself
• Stop worrying about money and start living your dream life

So, if any of that interests you I highly recommend you sign up. You only have a limited time to do so. 

>> Just click here to learn more about Yield of Dreams

Predicting The Future With Arthur C Clarke

Last week, I shared a couple of videos that attempted to predict the future. As a result, someone sent me a video of Arthur C Clarke's predictions that I thought was worth sharing.

Arthur C Clarke was a fantastic science fiction writer and a famous futurist. You probably know him as the author of 2001: A Space Odyssey.

Here are his predictions from 1964, nearly 60 years ago.

 

via BBC Archive 

Arthur C. Clarke had a profound impact on the way we imagine the future. Known for his remarkable predictions, Clarke's ideas may have seemed farfetched at times, yet his thoughts on the future and the art of making predictions were grounded in reason.

If a prophet from the 1960s were to describe today's technological advancements in exaggerated terms, their predictions would sound equally ridiculous. The only certainty about the future is that it will be fantastical beyond belief, a sentiment Clarke understood well.

You can be a great futurist even if many of your predictions are off in execution, but correct in direction. For example, Clarke predicted that the advancements in communication would potentially make cities nonexistent. While cities still exist - in much the same way as in the 1960s - people can now work, live, and make a massive difference in their companies from anywhere on the planet, even from a van traveling around the country. Global communication is so easy that it's taken for granted. 

As a science fiction author, some of what he wrote about might seem ridiculous today. For example, super-monkey servants creating trade unions.  Much of what he wrote about was what could happen (and to provide a way for people to think about the consequences of their actions and inactions).  As we discussed last week, humans often recognize big changes on the horizon ... but they rarely correctly anticipate the consequences. 

In summary, even though some of Clarke's predictions were farfetched, they were rooted in a deep understanding of human potential and the transformative power of technology. His ability to envision a fantastical future was not only a testament to his imagination, but also served as an inspiration for generations of scientists, engineers, and dreamers. By embracing the unknown and acknowledging the inherent uncertainty of the future, we can continue to push the boundaries of what is possible and strive for a world that is truly beyond belief.

You won't always be 100% correct, but you'll be much closer than if you reject what's coming. 

Can We Predict The Future?!

New technologies fascinate me ... As we approach the Singularity, I guess that is becoming human nature. 

Second Thought has put together a video that looks at various predictions from the early 1900s. It is a fun watch – Check it out. 

via Second Thought

It's interesting to look at what they strategically got right compared to what was tactically different. 

In a 1966 interview, Marshall McLuhan discussed the future of information with ideas that now resonate with AI technologies. He envisioned personalized information, where people request specific knowledge and receive tailored content. This concept has become a reality through AI-powered chatbots like ChatGPT, which can provide customized information based on user inputs.

Although McLuhan was against innovation, he recognized the need to understand emerging trends to maintain control and know when to "turn off the button." 

In 1966, media futurist Marshall McLuhan envisioned a form of digital research eerily similar to the customized queries now answered by AI. Then he makes a surprising admission about why he studies technological change—with a lesson I think many need to hear. pic.twitter.com/yEBJv95GvP

— Benjamin Carlson (@bfcarlson) March 22, 2023

While not all predictions are made equal, we seem to have a better idea of what we want than how to accomplish it. 

The farther the horizon, the more guesswork is involved. Compared to the prior video on predictions from the mid-1900s, this video on the internet from 1995 seems downright prophetic. 

via YouTube

There's a lesson there. It's hard to predict the future, but that doesn't mean you can't skate to where the puck is moving. Even if the path ahead is unsure, it's relatively easy to pick your next step, and then the step in front of that. As long as you are moving in the right direction and keep taking steps without stopping, the result is inevitable. 

Merry Chrismakkuh

Today is Christmas ... and it is also the last night of Chanukah.  So, Merry Christmas and Happy Chanukah!  And Happy Festivus to anyone who doesn't celebrate either. 

For those that don't know, Chanukah is the Jewish festival of lights.  This is the holiday that involves lighting the Menorah (Chanukah candles), eating latkes (potato pancakes), exchanging gifts, playing spin the Dreidel (a gambling game), and enjoying a sense of family togetherness for eight days and nights.

That's a long time, right?!  Well, sometimes it seems even longer with my family. 

To help you stay in the right mood, here is a video of "The Chanukah Song," performed by comedian Adam Sandler on Saturday Night Live.  It became an instant classic (and he has since released a second, third, and fourth version.)

Here is the video.  And, if you're feeling left out - here's Adam Sandler's Christmas Song.

The cynic in me believes merchants invented the gift part of the holiday.

Regardless, the Capitalogix team has been festive, and the office has been filled with holiday cheer.  Here is a picture that some of the team took after our ugly sweater contest.

I hope you're having a wonderful celebration surrounded by people you love and food that would make your cardiologist feel safe buying a new Porche.

The Swish Machine

Rube Goldberg machines impress me more often than not. Here's a 70-step outdoor machine that covers a lot of ground ... all to put a basketball in a hoop. It took a month to create, and another month to get working. 

 

via Creezy

I love stuff like this because it reminds me of life. Looking backward, you see how all the pieces go together. As you're going through it, it feels random and sometimes like you're moving backward or that your effort isn't directly contributing to your goal.

Nonetheless, it all comes together in the end.

Onwards!  

Bruce Willis Deepfake: The Smart Decision?

Bruce Willis is a legend of cinema, and he made many of my favorite movies of the 80s and 90s. He stayed relevant and exciting up until very recently. 

Then, last year, he started releasing a slew of disappointing "straight-to-DVD" style movies that had him receiving his own award show category in the Razzies (an award show for the worst performances of the year). In 2021, they created the category "worst performance by Bruce Willis in a 2021 movie." 

Vulture did an interesting interview with the founders of the Razzies where Bruce Willis comes up. 

Then, it came out that Bruce Willis was diagnosed with Aphasia and was losing his ability to speak. 

Suddenly, these pieces take on new meaning. They're Bruce getting as much work in as he can before he loses his voice permanently. He's trying to do what he knows how to do to make sure his wife and children are taken care of after he can no longer act. 

It doesn't make the movies suddenly "great" but it was enough to get the Razzies to rescind their award. 

I don't believe these last films of his dampen his well-earned legacy. 

Last year, his digital twin showed up in a Russian telecom ad. 

 

 
Recently, he's been in the news again for having sold his likeness to a deepfake company. It was reported on the company's website and by The Telegraph, but there are now claims to the contrary as well. 

While the jury is still out on if his rights have been sold, I think it's likely you'll see more Bruce Willis deepfake content. 

The question becomes, is it the right decision?

If his estate still has final approval - and there is quality control - then what's the harm?

Does the potential ubiquity, or the idea that we can always have another Bruce Willis movie, reduce the value of his movies?

Does allowing deepfakes in cinema (on TV or in film) take away roles from actors who might become stars?

We've already seen actors use deepfakes to reprise a role they did when they were younger - like Luke Skywalker or Leia from Star Wars. It's a different idea to build a new series around an actor who isn't actually acting in it. 

These questions pair well with the discussion around AI-generated art and whether it should be considered art. 

What do you think? 

Finding Ikigai In Increasingly Stressful Times

I just read that they sell more adult diapers than baby diapers in Japan.

Getting old is tough ... and it gets tougher the older you get.   As a result, finding your 'reasons for being' and joy in life become increasingly important. 

The past couple of years have been a period of massive upheaval for many.  Reasons for this include stress, change, pandemics, quarantine, new jobs, new goals ... or, at the other end of the spectrum, lack of change, lack of a job, or lack of purpose.

Most people know that life is much better than the alternative (and that life becomes even better when you learn to enjoy living and let go of what isn't serving you).  Consequently, it makes sense to understand and search for the things that bring you pleasure or fulfillment.

A Japanese concept called "Ikigai" may help better define your motivating force and the things that give you a sense of purpose or a reason for living.

Ikigai centers around finding purpose as you grow older.  Paradoxically, it makes sense to start the process as early as possible. 

Here is an infographic that lays out some "Reasons for Being."

via InformationIsBeautiful

Finding your "reason to be" and living with purpose are keys to making the most of your time.

The beauty of 2022 being a fresh start is that you can also change your approach and your vision.

The graphic highlights something interesting (yet almost counter-intuitive) ... When two areas intersect, it creates something positive (e.g., a passion or a mission).   However, where three areas intersect, it creates a pain point (for example, it could be what you're good at, you love doing it, the world needs it ... but it doesn't make you any money – so now you're struggling).

Worth examining and thinking about for a bit.

On a related note, this TEDx talks about the nine common diet and lifestyle habits that help people live past 100.

 

TED-ED via YouTube

And here is a link to Dan Sullivan's free e-book on his plan to live to 156. 

Live long and prosper!