Capitalogix

What Does The Average NBA Player Look Like?

Each sport has a different ratio of ethnicities. You might expect more Pacific Islanders in Rugby or Caucasians in Golf. 

So what happens when you average the top players' faces in various sports?

As you might expect, you get very different results depending on the sport.  See what I mean?

  osmutiar via Reddit

Not particularly surprising.

What is worth noting, however,  is that while you may be thinking "this player must be unstoppable" ... statistically, he's average.

The "composite" NBA player would be the 112th best player in the league. He's the fourth best starter on an okay team. 

We found the same thing with our trading bots.  The ones that made it through the most filters weren't the star performers.  They were the average bots that did enough not to fail (but failed to make the list as top performers in any of the categories).  The survivors were generalists, not specialists.

The reminder is that you won't find exceptional specialists if your focus is on generalized safety.

Onwards.

Which Industries are Prime for Disruption?

Last year, I talked with the CEO of CB Insights about how Fintech was disrupting the value chain of financial services. 

Since then, it's become even easier to see how disruptors are changing every industry, and becoming leaders in their fields.

 

via McKinsey

 

Companies like Lyft, Tesla, and Netflix changed paradigms and are now leading the pack, but what industries are next?

Looking at a report by McKinsey&Company, we find that the 5 industries with the least digitization account for 34% of GDP and 42% of all employees. 

 

1. Agriculture and Hunting
2. Construction
3. Hospitality
4. Healthcare
5. Government

via Quora

But, being less digitized than competitors, alone, isn't enough to indicate it's ready for disruption: 

 

How Regulated Is The Industry?

Heavily regulated industries mean that any company that can find a way around current regulations and tax structures can become an effective competitor fast ... i.e Lyft and Tesla

Is There Too Much Competition Already?

How many competitors are in the space? Is there spare capacity, or does the current model waste resources? Think taxis waiting for customers or empty seats on airplanes. 

Can it Be Automated?

Lot's of industries and tasks are ready and waiting to be automated - and only haven't been due to the cost of switching to new technology. 

 

To put it another way - are you solving a customer headache while lowering costs for you and the customer? 

The only constant is change, and digitization and automation are only increasing the rate of change. The type, quality, and the number of jobs being offered are changing rapidly. 

As digitization increases so does adoption of AI-related technologies. 

McKinsey Institute via Vox

AI is coming, disruption is coming.

It's no longer possible, it's not even just probable, it's inevitable

This interactive graph tells you if your job is automation proof, and what percentage of your job can be automated.

What industry do you think is next?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 21st, 2018

It's day 2 of the government shutdown; but what does that actually mean?

In short: 

• "Essential" government services will still run even if employees aren't getting paid - USPS, TSA, Social Security
• Other "non-essential" government employees will be "furloughed" and told to stay at home. 
• Military will be required to work, but won't be paid until Congress comes to an agreement
• Employees will be paid retroactively once an agreement is met. 

 Efficiency at its finest ... or a force function to get the children to play nicer with each other?

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Want to Get Wisdom? Be Your Own Crowd. (Bloomberg)
• NASA Just Proved It Can Navigate Space Using Pulsars. Where to Now? (Wired)
• It's So Cold in Russia that Thermometers are Breaking. (BGR)
• What Robot Strippers Say about Sexism, Tech and the Future. (AP News)
• Benjamin Franklin Built His Character around 13 Virtues and Following His Weekly Plan Could Change Your Life. (BusinessInsider)

Trading Links:

• How Donald Trump Has Remade the Rules for Business. (Wall Street Journal)
• Fed Paid $29.3 Billion to Banks 'Not' to Lend in 2017; Gave $80 Billion to Treasury. (ZeroHedge)
• One Person is Probably Responsible for Almost 600 Percent of Bitcoin's Price Rise. (Mashable)
• Kodak's Pivot to Crypto Seems to Be Working out Quite Nicely. (FastCompany)
• These are the Biggest Risks for Businesses in 2018, According to the World Economic Forum. (Fortune)

Some Things Never Change ...

This week I went to Chicago to speak at my old alma mater - Kellogg.

It was great to talk with professors and spend time with MBA students interested in trading and how the business of trading is changing. 

I plan on spending more time there to benefit research and recruiting.

 

 

Unsurprisingly, deep dish pizza is still delicious.  We were going to eat at a steakhouse.  However, Jennifer and I remembered that the only thing better than gorging on meat ... is gorging on meat and cheese. 

While some things haven't changed, others have.

The Universe must be trying to tell me something.  The day I got back, I found my old ID card ... and, apparently, some things have changed in the past thirty years. 

 

 

Onwards.

Algorithms are Watching: How Machines Learn

Machine Learning algorithms are everywhere.

They're helping you pick out your next gift on Amazon, controlling what you find on Google, they're suggesting new music for you on Spotify, and they're doing their best to keep you on their website.

When trying to explain how machines learn we tend to try and describe it in human terms. Unfortunately (or fortunately) machine learning isn't based on how we teach humans.

The video is a bit simple in its explanations, but it describes some important concepts. So, watch how machines learn.

 

CGP Grey via Youtube

The video focuses on Genetic Algorithms, which is one type of machine learning, and neglects some of the other more complicated approaches.

As machine learning gets more complicated and evolved, it gets harder for a human to understand what makes it good ... and that's okay. 

It's human nature to feel safer when we understand something. It's human nature to envision machines as making human-like decisions, just faster.

Of course, just because it suits human nature to believe something, that doesn't make it true. 

Part of what makes machine learning exciting is that it can do a lot of things well that humans are really bad at. 

In reality, it doesn't matter why a bot is making a decision, or what inputs the bot is making the decision on. What matters is the performance and level of decision-making in relation to itself and to other options.

One of the lessons I teach when I speak publically is that in trading, caring about the markets is a weakness.

It's a distraction. 

I don't care how markets are doing.

I care how my systems are doing. I care how my portfolio is doing.

There's too much data for me to try and care about anything else. 

It's a brave new world, and not only is big brother watching, but algorithms are too.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 14th, 2018

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Tesla Model 3: the First Serious Review. (The Drive)
• How Religion Made a Global Comeback in 2017. (The Atlantic)
• New Year's Fitness Resolutions: the Smartest Way to Keep Them. (WSJ)
• How Kaspersky's Software Fell under Suspicion of Spying on America. (Wall Street Journal)
• Could Your Apple Watch Save Your Life?: How Smartwatch Sensors Could Help Tackle a Dangerous Heart Condition. (ZDNet)

Trading Links:

• Kodak Announces Blockchain Plan, Share Price Soars. (FinExtra)
• Here's Why Spotify is Bypassing the Normal IPO Process and Why More Companies Don't Do It. (BI)
• As Dow Tops 25000, Individual Investors Sit It Out. (Wall Street Journal)
• Amazon Has a Master Plan to Turn Alexa into a Full-fledged Economy All on Its Own. (Insider)
• A Crypto Expert Explains the Difference between the Two Largest Cryptocurrencies in the World: Bitcoin and Ethereum. (BusinessInsider)

Ultra Spiritual Wisdom on Bitcoin

Seemingly everywhere I go, someone asks me about Bitcoin.

Clearly, there are speculators and day traders banking coin. 

I am a little surprised by how fast it captured the cultural zeitgeist.

Here's a clever spoof ... worth watching.

  

 AwakenWithJP via Youtube

I'm sure we'll talk more about Bitcoin ... but, more importantly, Blockchain (which is the technology that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were built upon).

I am currently investigating and planning how we'll use Blockchain.

Onwards.

Related articles

The technology behind bitcoin is only halfway through its evolution

Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies: ScaleVP Comments From the Sidelines

Blockchain Learning hub - Stories of UNICEF Innovation

97% of all bitcoins are held by 4% of addresses

Bitcoin Ban: Merrill Lynch Prevents Clients, Advisors From Trading Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin conference stops accepting bitcoin for tickets, oh the irony

Thoughts on Ten Years of Marriage ...

I met Jennifer in April of 2004.  We got married in January of 2008.  We celebrated our 10th Wedding Anniversary this week.

  

Wow, how time flies!

On one hand, it seems like just yesterday.  On the other hand, portions of that decade seemed to take forever.

As an entrepreneur, I live in a weird "tense".  For me, the future and present are often blended.  Meaning, I imagine the future I want – and then I find the path to create (or manifest) that destiny.  Not surprisingly, some of the things that were easy to imagine were hard to bring into reality (in a reproducible, efficient, and effective manner or process) ... And these things seem to take forever.  

Other things (like relationships or the growth and maturation of my kids) seemed to happen in the blink of an eye.

I am consciously trying to be more mindful and grateful for the progress (and even the minor moments, wins, or curiosities) before me.  The truth is that if you fail to notice them, you don't experience them.

Here is to experiencing all that you need or want ... and I hope the rest serves as raw material, learning, or fuel to get you there faster.

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 22nd, 2017

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How One Connection Could Change Your Life (In Less Than 90 Days). (Forbes)
• Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds. (NewYorker)
• Long Island Iced Tea Soars after Changing Its Name to Long Blockchain. (Bloomberg)
• How Quantum Computing Will Change the World. (NewStatesman)
• Cracking the World Famous Enigma Machine with Artificial Intelligence in Just 13 Minutes. (7WData)

Trading Links:

• Here's How the Tax Bill Will Affect the Richest 1% in All 50 States. (CNBC)
• Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos Just Sold $1.1 Billion Worth of His Stock. (Money)
• This Animation Shows the Explosion in ICO Funding over the Last Four Years. (Insider)
• The First $100 Billion Dollar Blockchain Company Could Be the next SAP. (Forbes)
• Worldwide Cognitive Systems and Artificial Intelligence Revenues Forecast to Surge past $47 Billion in 2020, According to New IDC Spending Guide. (IDC)

Can You Afford To Think Linearly in this Exponential Age?

Human's can't do a lot of things. Honestly, the fact that we're top of the food-chain is pretty miraculous. 

We're slow, we're weak, and we're famously bad at understanding large numbers and exponential growth. 

Our brains are hardwired to think locally and linearly.

It's a monumental task for us to fathom exponential growth ... let alone its implications. 

Think how many companies have failed due to that inability ... Radioshack couldn't understand a future where shopping was done online and Kodak didn't think digital cameras would replace good ol' film. Blockbuster couldn't foresee a future where people would want movies in their mailboxes, because "part of the joy is seeing all your options!" They didn't even make it long enough to see "Netflix and Chill" become a thing. 

   

via Diamandis

Human perception is linear. Technological growth is exponential.

There are many examples.  Here is one Diamandis calls "The Kodak Moment."

In 1996, Kodak was at the top of its game, with a market cap of over $28 billion and 140,000 employees.

Few people know that 20 years earlier, in 1976, Kodak had invented the digital camera. It had the patents and the first-mover advantage.

But that first digital camera was a baby that only its inventor could love and appreciate.

That first camera took .01 megapixel photos, took 23 seconds to record the image to a tape drive, and only shot in black and white.

Not surprisingly, Kodak ignored the technology and its implications.

Fast forward to 2012, when Kodak filed for bankruptcy – disrupted by the very technology that they invented and subsequently ignored.

 

via Diamandis

Innovation is a reminder that you can't be medium-obsessed. Kodak's goal was to preserve memories. It wasn't to sell film. Blockbuster's goal wasn't to get people in their stores, it was to get movies in homes.  

Henry Ford famously said: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Steve Jobs was famous for spending all his time with customers, but never asking them what they wanted.

Two of our greatest innovators realized something that many never do. Being conscientious of your consumers doesn't necessarily mean listening to them. It means thinking about and anticipating their wants and future needs.

Tech and A.I. are creating tectonic forces throughout industry and the world.  It is time to embrace and leverage what that makes possible.  History has many prior examples of Creative Destruction (and what gets left in the dust).

Opportunity or Chaos ...  You get to decide.

Onward!