Capitalogix

The United States of Apathy

When I think about World Leaders (in places like North Korea, Russia, or Syria), I recognize how lucky we are to be able to elect our leaders in fair and free elections. 

Unfortunately, that's not an opportunity that we take advantage nearly enough. 

America has a two-party system,  and we count our votes down district and state lines to decide which candidate will end up with the electoral votes for that state ... but what if abstention was counted as a vote for nobody?

 

via Philip Kearney

It's an interesting exercise to visualize what our absenteeism in voting looks like ... in the last presidential election, four times as many voted for nobody as for Trump and Hilary (combined!). 

For all the people who whine and moan in any Presidency, you'd expect more people would have taken action to support their beliefs.

Now, try to imagine how few people vote in the more minor election cycles.

There are many interesting practical and theoretical discussions to be had about voting - engagement, education, etc. - but looking at this graph certainly puts one of the problems into perspective. 

It's easy to point out a problem.  It's more productive to propose a solution.

• Making election day a national holiday?
• Allowing mail-in or digital ballots?

Many individuals feel they don't need to vote because their state uses an "all or none" electoral college approach, or because they feel they already know how their state is going to vote. 

In addition, unless you're in a battleground state - it can often feel pointless - whether or not it is. 

What do you think it would take to increase turnout?

Hyper-Reality: The Future of Augmented Reality?

Our physical and virtual realities are beginning to blend.  Animation is becoming more realistic.  Virtual and augmented reality are becoming more affordable. Wearables are becoming pervasive.  And, the internet of things will soon overtake the Internet.

We're moving towards a world where technology envelops every aspect of our lives ... figuratively and literally. 

The following (still fictional) video is thought-provoking.  What happens when these new technologies are used to influence behavior, decision-making, and even your identity?  

 

Keiichi Matsuda via Vimeo

Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) are not new fields - but, they are evolving quickly. Technology and infrastructure are getting to the point that AR and VR will become common for us.

You have already started to see it (from Google Glass, to the NBA, and of course, to porn). 

"Not too far in the future you will begin to see the integration of AR and VR together eventually leading to having your favorite performer on your lap, in your bedroom doing a custom performance for you and responding to your verbal and physical cues."

- Anna Lee, HoloFilm Productions

Your doctor or nutritionist could help you make better choices for you.  Your therapist or coach could help you perceive and respond differently to the challenges life presents you.  Marketers could better influence your purchases.  Employers could better monitor and measure your performance and productivity. And governments will not be far behind ... doing what they do.

Like many things, these technologies make possible awesome new capabilities (if used well) and horrific consequences (if abused or used in authoritarian ways).

Similar issues are being dealt with in the fields of BioEthics and AI Ethics. In addition, there is a growing discussion of the impact these technologies will have on society. 

We live in interesting times! 

Related articles

What Effect Will VR and AR Have on B2B Customer Service?

Rumors of the demise of augmented reality developers have been greatly exaggerated

Get ready for augmented reality *everything*

Remember Google Glass? It just got its first update in 3 years. Seriously.

Chinese police are using facial-recognition glasses to scan travelers

23 concepts that show what Apple's futuristic smart glasses might look like (AAPL)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 18th, 2018

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• SpaceX Hid a Second, Secret Payload Aboard Falcon Heavy, and It Sounds Amazing. (ScienceAlert)
• Weird: Naked Mole Rats Don't Die of Old Age. (FoxNews)
• Your WHOLE Body Could Be Replaced or Upgraded' with Robot Parts by 2070. (TheSun)
• Drones Grounded at Opening Ceremony _ but Not on Tape Delay. (AP News)
• These Videos of the North Korean Cheerleading Squad Chanting Will Haunt Your Nightmares. (SomeEcards)

Trading Links:

• How Bitcoin's Plunge May Have Been a Precursor to Market Turmoil. (CNBC)
• Blockchain, AI, Machine Learning & IOE Will Make You Money in 2018. (Forbes)
• BlackRock's Message: Contribute to Society, or Risk Losing Our Support. (New York Times)
• US Tax Reform Could Cause Repatriation of $2 Trillion Overseas Investment. (Worldview)
• A Bunch of Shell-shocked Wall Streeters Met in Paradise during the Market Meltdown Here's What Scares Them Most. (BusinessInsider)

Slaughterbots Assemble!

Technology can be scary - especially when it is used to move towards autonomous killing machines. 

Recently, a UC Berkeley computer science professor helped to create a video that imagined a world where nuclear weapons were replaced by swarms of autonomous tiny drones that could kill half a city and are virtually unstoppable.

Stuart Russell, the professor, said these drones are already a technological reality.

The video takes the viewer to an auditorium where a speaker showcases a drone roughly the size of a mockingbird. At one point the drone lands on his hand, the speaker quickly recalibrates it and then throws it out into the audience again. After a few seconds, the small drone turns back to the stage and crashes into the forehead of a dummy standing off to the left of the speaker.

 

 

The video was released earlier this month by the Future of Life Institute, which is backed by Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk. It was presented by Russell at a United Nations Convention on Conventional Weapons in Geneva, according to The Mercury News.

“Trained as a team, [the drones] can penetrate buildings, cars, trains, all while having the capacity to evade any countermeasure. They cannot be stopped,” the speaker told the audience in the video.

Russell said that although A.I.’s “potential to benefit humanity is enormous, even in defense,” allowing the widespread use of machines that “choose to kill humans will be devastating to our security and freedom.”

Expect to hear a lot more about Swarm Intelligence (and some of the more positive things it can do).

What Is The Internet of Things?

The Internet of Things (IoT) is literally just a connected network of digital "things" that can interact with each other through the internet (or intranets). 

Yet, the IoT also represents a paradigm shift (and the next big upgrade to the web). By 2020, over 26 billion (with a b) things will be connected to the internet.

 

But how does it work, and why do you care?

 

Information Is Beautiful created a helpful interactive primer on the IoT that's worth a look.

Click here to see it. It answers questions like "What kind of things? and "how will the things be used?" but also gives you a chance to look at the innovations, the innovators, and the challenges involved. 

 

via Information Is Beautiful

Ultimately, things like cars, buildings, home appliances and wearables will communicate and interact to create a connected world. 

People's homes are already becoming more connected. With smart hubs you can control your alarms, your lights and HVAC, all the way down to starting your coffee machine. 

Now imagine that connectivity in a hospital or a supply chain. It's going to be a huge breakthrough. 

 

But what about challenges?

 

As we get more technologically advanced and interconnected, there are inherent issues and weaknesses. 

For example, as more devices access the internet you have more chances for attacks by hackers. 

Computers, smartphones and other devices often come with virus protection, security measures and more. The same isn't true of your fridge or your coffee machine...

If there's one vulnerability in your network, that can easily affect all other devices on your network. 

In fact, hacker's just stole a Casino's high roller database through a "smart" thermometer in their lobby aquarium. 

As well, there are privacy issues, bandwidth issues and the unfortunate reality for many companies which is ... you may not be nimble enough to keep up with this innovation landscape. 

What do you think about IoT? Do you have a connected home already? Can you start your car with your phone?  Does your hedge fund use technology like this to let trading systems communicate, coordinate, and collaborate?  Can you imagine what that would be like?

I can!

Executing Your Vivid Vision of the Future

Many companies have flashy mission and vision statements. Fewer have mission or vision statements that truly capture the spirit of the business or inspire proper action.

Likewise, some companies have identified their core values (but fewer have identified the values that truly represent the business and what it aspires to become) ... and even fewer have real actionable plans to get where they say they are going. 

This is easily fixed!

Cameron Herold is famous for helping entrepreneurs and other organizational leaders translate their "Vivid Vision" into a complete and actionable roadmap for their companies. 

He originally presented the Vivid Vision exercise in a chapter of his book, the Double Double.

The basic idea is that most entrepreneurs have an idea in their mind of what the company will look and feel like in the future (literally, a Vivid Vision),  but that employees can't read their mind.  The exercise translates those ideas into actionable direction.

Here is a short video of Cameron explaining the process. 

 

It's a fun and useful exercise.  Ultimately, you end up with a 4-5 page document.  Here is an example of Cameron's Vivid Vision for himself.  This can be used internally, for recruiting, and as a way to align with stakeholders.

He just released his fourth book  (called "Vivid Vision") – and it goes into more detail on how to align your business around a shared vision of the future.  It's terrific ... and surprisingly short.

And, if you want help generating or writing your vivid vision ... email Jennifer Hudye.  She can write it from scratch or take your draft and make it “pop”.  Tell her Howard sent you.

Cameron also has a podcast and offers some tools and exercises you can download.

Do Not Adjust Your Set ... We Are Now Controlling The Transmission

There is nothing wrong with your television. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are now controlling the transmission. We control the horizontal and the vertical. We can deluge you with a thousand channels or expand one single image to crystal clarity and beyond. We can shape your vision to anything our imagination can conceive. - The Outer Limits (1963)

 

 

It almost feels like an episode of Black Mirror, watching these stations quote the same pre-determined diatribe on fake news and it's danger to our democracy.

The very message they are purportedly supporting directly contradicts their actions. 

I think most people realize this happens to some degree ... but, it's different when it's presented like this.

Personally, I believe I am reasonably aware and somewhat immune from propaganda.  That probably isn't as true as I'd like to believe.

To put it in context - Sinclar Broadcast Group owns nearly 200 stations in 80 different markets, and are looking to buy out more. That is a powerful platform to deliver mass messages and influence the zeitgeist of its audience.

It used to be true that winners wrote history (think empires, wars, etc.).  Now, the one that delivers the most broadcast narratives shapes the emotional and seemingly logical responses to what we perceive to be happening around us.

The result impacts elections, financial markets, buying choices, and countless other areas of our life. 

As A.I., Bots, and social media grow, our ability to discern truth from 'truthiness' weakens.

What do you think about this?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - April 1st, 2018

 Happy April Fool's Day. What were your favorite pranks?  Here is a list of some that made news this year.

 

via LegallyDrawn

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Daniel Pink How to Make Better Decisions and Be More Creative. (Tim)
• 2018 Framework to Understand Digital Innovation. (HackerNoon)
• Why Dogs Really Do Love You, According to Science. (Inverse)
• China's 'Social Credit' System Bans Millions from Travelling. (Telegraph)
• We Asked Astronauts If They Think Aliens Exist. Here's What They Said. (Mashable)

 

Trading Links:

• What Exactly is Vladimir Putin's Net Worth? is He the Richest Person on the Planet? (CNW)
• China's One-Man Show. (JacobinMag)
• The next Housing Crisis: a Historic Shortage of New Homes. (Wall Street Journal)
• A Nobel-winning Economist is Part of a Team Launching a Low-volatility Cryptocurrency. (Quartz)
• President Trump Reportedly Obsessed' with Regulating Amazon, Wants to Clip Jeff Bezos' Wings. (GeekWire)

Here is to Spring, Re-Birth, and Spring Cleaning. Let My People Go!

Happy Easter!

Hope you had a great weekend.

This week also was Passover, a holiday that recounts the story of Exodus. This happens during the ritual meal featured in DaVinci's Last Supper.

 

 

So, today, lots of people are celebrating.

For my Christian friends, this is a holy time ... and a family time.  

For my Jewish friends, it is Passover.  

One of the memorable phrases from Exodus is when Moses says "Let my people go!"  For generations, people assumed he was talking to the Pharoh about his people's freedom.  But after a week of eating clogging matzoh, matzoh balls, and even fried matzoh ... for many Jews "Let my people go" takes on a different meaning.

 

via BudgetBytes

Here is to Spring, Re-Birth, and Spring Cleaning.

Hope you had a great weekend.

 

Related articles

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Da Vinci's iconic depiction of Easter's beginnings has a violent history it barely survived

Passover 101

A Guide to the Passover Seder

Why You Can't Predict March Madness

Last year, I shared some facts about March Madness. For example, the chances of a perfect bracket are  at 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. For those who don't wanna do the math that's 9.2 quintillions. 

This year, 16-seed UMBC (The Chesapeake Bay Retrievers) beat 1-seed Virginia, and left no perfect brackets after only 28 Games. 

As we came into the Elite Eight, nobody picked all eight. Almost nobody predicted No. 3 Texas Tech making it this far ... and there were 17,304,320 digital brackets this year. 

Is there any way to accurately predict something with this many potentialities and this much discord?

Different factors can feel like they provide an edge ... knowing the history of teams, their ranks, how often they've been to the Final Four, or how great their coach is ... but even that knowledge can lead you astray. You'd think an NCAA analyst might have a better shot at a perfect bracket than your grandma or co-worker, but several of the highest-ranked brackets this year were guesses. 

via ESPN

It's fun guessing when you're making bets on college basketball, but what if this is your livelihood ...

Prediction is hard ... especially about the future.

The way people fill out their brackets often mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets. Some use gut feel, some base their decisions on rank and past performance, and some use predictive models ... and some of us get disappointed when Duke loses.

 Apparently, humans aren't as great at prediction as we think we are.