Capitalogix

10 Largest Economies in 2030

Emerging markets have taken recent hits due to the trade war ... but that doesn't mean their long-term potential isn't monumental. 

According to Standard Chartered, by 2030, 7 of the 10 largest economies will be in emerging markets with India, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, and Egypt seeing exponential growth. Click to see the infographic and here's a video:

 

via Visual Capitalist

China and the US produce 23.2 trillion and 19.4 trillion respectively; unchallenged powerhouses now. That being said, the global balance of power and population is shifting; and many developing countries (like India) are growing quickly.  

 

via Visual Capitalist

It seems likely that with their population growth and maturation as global economies, we'll see a relatively different landscape in 10 years. Will it look like this? Maybe?  But Egypt's projected growth of 583% seems a bit beyond normal expectations ... Time will tell!

Biggest Companies In Every State

Here are the biggest companies by revenue (in 2018) in almost every state. You'll notice some states are missing. Alaska, Montana, New Mexico, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming lack Fortune 1000 headquarters. 

Business Insider via Fortune

Most should be pretty recognizable - but some are relatively under the radar. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 26th, 2019

Theresa May has just announced her resignation as UK Prime Minister. She's faced massive criticism for an inability to come to a resolution on Brexit, and missing two deadlines. A new PM will be appointed in July.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

 

• Our Coming DNA Nightmare, as Outlined by a Dystopian Graphic Novel. (FastCompany)
• Google May Know You Better Than You Know Yourself. (Wall Street Journal)
• Leonardo Da Vinci Designed an Ideal City, Centuries Ahead of Its Time. (TheConversation)
• U.S. Among the Ten Most Stressed Nations Worldwide [Infographic]. (Forbes)
• Princeton Valedictorian Gets Engaged to Her 71-Year-old Former Professor. (FoxNews)

 

Trading Links:

• Economics in the Age of Big Data. (Science)
• These are the 20 Highest-Paid World Leaders. (CNW)
• America's Strong Economic Growth this Year Surprises Economists. (Economist)
• Millionaires Flee Their Homelands as Tensions Rise and Taxes Bite. (Bloomberg)
• This Map Showing the Fastest and Slowest Internet Speeds in the US Could Predict the Path of a Silicon Valley Startup Exodus. (BusinessInsider)

AI Isn't A Substitute For Lack Of The Real Thing

When I first got out of Law School in the 1980s, "professionals" didn't type ... that was your assistant's job.

Then again, most people couldn't have imagined what computers and software are capable of now.

Looking back,  my career has been a series of cycles where I was able to imagine what advanced tech would enable (and how business would have to change to best leverage those new capabilities).

Malcolm Gladwell suggests that it takes 10,000 hours of focus and effort for someone to become an expert at something. 

But the game is changing.

Today, we can do research that took humans 10,000 hours in the time it took you to read this sentence. Moreover, technology doesn't forget what it's learned because a computer's memory is much better than yours or mine. 

Still,  technology isn't a cure-all. Many people miss out on the benefits of A.I. and technology for the same reasons they didn't master the hobbies they picked up as an adolescent. 

I shot a video discussing how to use technology to create a sustainable creative advantage. Check it out. 

 

 

Most people realize this technology is cool - and they want to use AI - but they forget what mastery takes. 

When using AI and high-performance computing, you need to ask the same questions you ask yourself about your life's purpose. 

• What's my goal?
• What do I (or my systems) need to learn to accomplish my goal?
• What are the best ways to achieve that goal (or something better)?

Too many companies are focused on AI as if that is the goal. AI is simply a tool. As I mentioned in the video, you have to define the problem the right way in order to find a solution for it. 

Artificial Intelligence is a game-changer - so you have to approach it as such. 

Know your mission and your strategy, recognize what you're committing to, set it as a compass heading and make deliberate movement in that direction. 

I end the video by saying, "Wisdom comes from making finer distinctions. So, it is an iterative and recursive process... but it is also evolutionary.  And frankly, that is extraordinarily exciting!"

I hope you agree.

Onwards!

Mindset Matters

I have a picture in my conference room that says energy might be the most important thing to measure.

 

via GapingVoid

It means exactly what it sounds like - but also a lot more. 

We use A.I. to trade.  So, measuring performance is important.  But, so are all sorts of production, efficiency, and effectiveness measures. 

While there are hundreds of important metrics we track day-to-day, energy affects everything. 

Energy affects how you feel, what you do, and what you make it mean.  That means it is a great way to measure your values too.

Consequently, even if you don't recognize it, energy has a lot to do with who you hire and fire. It affects where you spend our time. Ultimately, it even affects the long-term vision of our company.

If something brings profit and energy, it is probably worth pursuing. 

In contrast, one of the quickest ways to burn out is by fighting your energy.  Figuring out who and what to say "no" to is an important way to make sure you stay on path and reach your goals.

At a recent Genius Network event, I shared a mindset scorecard I created during one of their exercises.  I hope it helps!

Normally, Genius Network is private, and these recordings are for internal use only; but I asked permission to share my impromptu session with you. 

Check it out. In the first 5 minutes, I will introduce the scorecard. For the next 10 minutes, you'll get an extra look at the resulting group discussion. 

 

I use this tool to diagnose where we are during meetings, while ranking opportunities, and even for HR and partnership decisions.

Think of each comparison as a spectrum. They're not necessarily "one-or-the-other", but they can help identify where you are on the scale of "what to avoid" versus "what you want".

 

• Blaming <-----> Encouraging
• Insistent <-----> Inspirational
• Fearful <-----> Abundant
• Steadfast <-----> Curious
• Clogging <-----> Cleansing
• Resentful <-----> Grateful
• Zero-Sum <-----> Relational
• Small-Minded <-----> Visionary

 

These words mean something to me, but they may need tooling to work in your company. Changing the names, the order of the comparisons, the number of comparisons, etc. can have a profound effect on the usefulness of this scorecard to you. 

I encourage you to think about how you could use this scorecard, and how you can bring attention to those people and actions that best embody the traits that are vital to your business. 

BBQ Fest - A New Tradition

Once a year, I go to the World BBQ Championship at Memphis in May. 

It's three days of friends, food, fun, and bad puns (like #AporkalypseNow and  #MeatDrinkAndBeMerry).

You've heard the phrase  "Put your money where your mouth is ..."  This year we sponsored a tent and brought some of the Capitalogix team to enjoy the festivities. 

 

 

Here's a look at what was cooking in our tent.  It had Brazilian "churrasco" flair. 

Our Grill Master was Blake Carson, who took a traditional Brazilian Steakhouse cooking style – and innovated upon it – creating the Carson Rodizio kit (which started as a Kickstarter project).  It is a multi-rotisserie rack that converts your favorite backyard grill into an open and spinning Brazilian style Steakhouse.  It's clever, functional, and cool... and it's been used to win multiple barbecue championships.

I love to experience an entrepreneur's mind at work.  

It's not always about what you add.  Sometimes, it is about what you take away.  Less is often more. 

Here is a one-minute interview I shot with Blake.

 

 

Innovation, like opportunity, is all around you.

It's not there for you if you don't see the opportunity, and seize it.

How Warren Buffet Got His Start

Warren Buffett is a legend for many reasons. Foremost among them might be that he's one of the few investors who clearly has an edge ... and has for a long time. From 1976 to 2017 his Sharpe ratio (excess return relative to risk) was approximately double the overall market. Berkshire Hathaway now has over $700 billion in assets – and is still performing well. 

While many people consider Buffett to be an investor,  I also consider him to be an entrepreneur.

At the age of six, he started selling gum door to door. Obviously, selling gum wasn't the key to his path to riches.  So, how did he make his first million?  Here's a video that explains it.

 

via Coolnimation

For context, he made his first million at age 30, which was in 1960. For context, a million dollars in 1960 would be worth about $8.5 million today.

Buffet has always been honest about his bread-and-butter "trick" ...  he buys quality companies at a discount and holds on to them.

It is fascinating to recognize how much the world has changed – and yet how much it stayed the same.

For extra viewing: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Bill Gates recently did a full 2-hour interview with CNBC. You can watch it here.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - April 12th, 2019

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Here's How Google Knows in Less Than 5 Minutes If Someone Is a Great Leader. (Inc)
• What Amazon Knows About You. (Axios)
• Julio Iglesias Has an Absolutely Massive Net Worth and Owns an Airport.(CNW)
• Scientist: Alien Life Now Seems Inevitable and Possibly Imminent. (Futurism)
• This Trick Helped 96% of WWII US Military Pilots Learn to Fall Asleep within 2 Minutes, Even After Drinking Coffee. (BusinessInsider)

 

Trading Links:

• One Out of Every 11,600 People in San Francisco is a Billionaire. (Vox)
• Here's Who Stands to Get Rich from Uber's IPO. (ComplianceX)
• Vegan-Friendly, Celeb-Backed Beyond Meat Has 2019'S Best U.S. IPO. (Time)
• If You Invested $1,000 in Apple in 2009, Here's How Much You'd Have Now. (CNBC)
• Man Credited With Calling the 2008 Crisis Says the Next 20 Years in the Stock Market Will Break a Lot of Hearts'. (MarketWatch)

Happy Mother's Day

 To those of you with young children, here's a peek into your future.

After years of hard work and your best efforts (OK, mostly your best efforts) ...
I predict that your adorable bundles of joy will someday wish they could send you this card.

So, take a moment to think about your Mom ... and remember that she was very young when she did those things to you ...

... and what you make them mean is up to you.

Here's a funny clip from SNL in honor of Mother's Day.

 

 

Microsoft: Are They Where They Thought They'd Be in 2019?

 In 2009, Microsoft released a video anticipating the world in 2019. That was only 10 years ago. 

I recently showed you how much Social Media has changed in 10 years - so how close was Microsoft's guess?

Watch this video to find out: 

 

 

The answer is .... not as close as I would have thought.  Nonetheless, they just hit a Trillion Dollar market cap.  So, they must have gotten something right! 

It's interesting to think about which factors or missing innovations caused the difference between their imagined vision and reality.

They really bought into scaleable, HD, transparent, touch screen displays being not only available, but located in everything by now ... which suffice to say, isn't the case. 

The reality is ...

• A lot of these innovations actually have little use - Not every situation needs a transparent monitor - they're worse than standard monitors in almost every way. You end up using absurdly expensive screens to display a digital version of a post it note or handwriting. The desk/monitor hybrid would be covered in sheets of paper, office supplies, and your coffee. A boarding pass being a screen is highly inefficient for so many reasons - and so is a digital newspaper. We have those - they're called phones.  
• They assumed batteries would be way farther along - The thinner your monitor, the more transparent, the harder it is to create a high-performance high-fidelity battery to maintain it. Unfortunately, batteries haven't had nearly the boom like the rest of our tech (though they are getting better). 
• IoT Adoption/Security - One of the biggest problems with IoT is that the more these pieces communicate the harder it is to prevent hacks. A chain is only as strong as the weakest link - and a smart coffee maker isn't nearly secure as your computer. 
• Fingerprints (Glass) - I get this isn't a "real" concern - but every piece of technology they showed was transparent/glass. On top of being very breakable (see Samsungs new foldable phones) Could you imagine how smudged/dirty everywhere would appear? Imagine a New York subway with this technology.
• Expense v. Convenience - A lot of technologies are feasible - but aren't cost-effective. Look at the slow adoption of Solar cells as their efficiency per cost went up.

Making everything a device/screen means more opportunity for companies to serve you ads and retarget you ad infinitum. 

Ultimately, I find this perceived "modern digital office environment" very inefficient. A lot of these "innovations" are less dynamic and easy to use than their analog counterparts. Mechanical keyboards serve a purpose. 

In reality, a lot of the trends we've adopted to increase collaboration and sharing have been counterproductive. Not every office needs an open floor plan - not every team needs 15 subteams with 4 bosses - and using 20 different productivity tools actually decreases productivity. 

That being said, we've come a long way in 10 years. Think about the quality of your phone in 2009 or your desktop computer - whirring loudly as it tried to access the disk, or the internet, or anything really. 

What we have now isn't perfect - but it's leaps and bounds ahead of where we were. A lot of technology seems like science fiction - like the Babel fish from Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy.