Capitalogix

Social Media Is Changing Everything: A Reprisal

I came across a post from 2009 about social media. 10 years later, with the knowledge of how much data we use today, it's quite a read.

Here it is in its full glory. 

Social Media Is Changing Everything: October 18th, 2009

My son won't use e-mail the way I did. So how will people communicate and collaborate in the next wave of communications?

Here is a peek into the difference that is taking hold.  I was looking at recent phone use.  The numbers you are about to see are from the first 20 days of our current billing cycle.

• • My wife, Jennifer, has used 21 text messages and 38 MB of data.
  • I have used 120 text messages and 29 MB of data.
  • My son, at college, used 420 text messages, and is on a WiFi campus so doesn't use 3G data.
  • My son, in high school, used 5,798 text messages and 472 MB of data.

How can that be?  That level of emotional sluttiness makes porn seem downright wholesome. 

But, of course, that isn't how he sees it.  He is holding many conversations at once.  Some are social; some are about the logistics of who, what, when, where and why ... some are even about homework.  Yet, most don't use full sentences, let alone paragraphs.  There is near instant gratification.  And, the next generation of business people will consider this normal.

Is social media a fad? Or is it the biggest shift since the Industrial Revolution?

Welcome to the World of Socialnomics.  This video has a bunch of interesting statistics ... and is fun to watch. 

 

 

Other Resources:

• • Here is a link to a short-version of this video.
  • This reminds me of the "Shift Happens!" video.
  • Worth Looking At ... Here are the Stats.

Social Media Is Changing Everything: April 20th, 2019 

Looking at the stats from 2009 is pretty funny

• My son was using 472 MB of data a month
• Hulu had grown from to 373 million total streams in April 2009
• Only 25% of Americans in the past month said they watched a short video on their phone

For some context, I looked up the comparative numbers for 2018. 

• I picked a random month in 2018 ... in August my son used 10.85 GB of data. He doesn't text as often - but has sent/received 282,000 snapchats since downloading it 5 years ago.
• Hulu has over 20 million subscribers who streamed more than 26 million hours a day in 2018 
• People spend over five hours a day on their smartphones on average. 70% of web traffic happens on a mobile device, and more than 50% of videos are watched on mobile (93% of twitter videos). 

Here's what happens every minute of every day on the internet

via Lori Lewis and Chadd Callahan

 

A little different than 2009 ...

Reinventing Hedge Funds

Two months ago, I spoke at IBM's Think 2019 Conference with iOLAP's Chris Jordan. Our talk was Gaining a Financial Edge through Fast Data and Analytics.

 

 

The crux of our presentation was that high-performance computing and advanced technology stacks are fundamental to today's trading strategies.

Earlier this week, IBM released a commercial we shot together about how IBM's Integrated Analytics System (IAS) is helping us re-invent hedge funds.  Check it out.

 

 

via IBM Analytics

Think of it this way: 

Each generation of traders finds new ways to play the game and to generate Alpha (the excess return generated by manager skill, rather than luck or excess risk). As soon as enough people adopt a strategy (or figure out a way to combat it), the edge begins to decay.

When computerized data became available, simply understanding how to download and use it generated Alpha. The same could be said for each later evolution: the adoption of complex algorithms, access to massive amounts of clean data, and the adoption of AI strategies.

Each time a new shift happens, traders pivot or fail – it's not that active trading stopped working – it's that the tools and styles necessary to play that game evolved.

We use a similar concept we call "Active Switching".  Instead of simply trying to pick stocks or markets, we use advanced technology and techniques to choose markets, techniques, risk levels, and allocation strategies. Further, we use Active Switching to make many decisions, great and small, that together allow us to build portfolios that adjust themselves to changing market conditions.

 

Playing a New Game

 

Confusion is the catalyst to most trades.  What that means is the ability to parse information ... to create a contextual map of meaning and figure out where there's signal and noise ... is the new table stakes for playing that game.   ~ Howard Getson

 

Historically, most active traders don't beat the S&P in any given year ... and even less beat it with any semblance of consistency.  But those that do – the ones that have been doing it for long enough that it's not chance ... exercise a willingness (and a skill) to adapt quickly. 

One of Charles Darwin's best-known concepts is: It is not the strongest species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change.

While computers have made information accessible to everyone, they've also created a massive asymmetric information advantage for those who have both the access and the skill to best use the massive amounts of data now available.  This is more complicated than it seems.  You need the information, the technology, the process, and the people.  There is so much data available now that figuring out what to ignore is probably more important than what to use.  Likewise, the ability to ingest, clean, validate and curate the data is a huge hurdle that most can't clear.

 

 

Even with those skills, it's harder than ever to take advantage of inefficiencies (edges) than ever before.  The edges are smaller, more fleeting, and surrounded by more volatility and noise.  It's like finding a needle in a haystack.  That being said - finding a needle in a haystack is easy when you have a metal detector. 

That's where A.I. has come in for us. We use A.I. to develop algorithms, to analyze markets, and to create meaning where humans can't find any. 

 

 

We live in exciting times.  Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - April 21st, 2019

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• What are the Most Promising Uses for Blockchain We Haven't Seen Yet? (Forbes)
• Sperm and Sensibility: The Modern World of Designer Children. (TLS)
• Thousands of Amazon Workers are Listening in on Echo Audio, Report Says. (AppleInsider)
• Strength Training for the Lungs: Why Heavy Breathing Could Be a Shortcut to Improving Your Health. (Telegraph)
• Forecasting the Future: Can the Hive Mind Let Us Predict the Future? (Futurism)

 

Trading Links:

• NVIDIA AI Research Points to an Evolution of the Chip Business. (ZDNet)
• Philip Morris International is Sticking with E-Cigs, Not Marijuana. (Fool)
• This Simple Map Shows the Biggest Employers in Each State. (Good)
• Lyft's I.P.O. is Making the Same Circle of Men Rich, Again. (New York Times)
• The Future of Electric Cars is Happening Now in China. (Quartz)

 

 

Let My People Go!

It's a special weekend. 

For Jews, it's Passover - the holiday honoring our exodus from Egypt. 

For Christians, it's Easter - the holiday honoring Jesus's resurrection. 

The overlap can be seen in DaVinci's Last Supper, a Passover Seder, and Jesus's last meal before his crucifixion.  

For both, it's a holy and family-centric time. A reminder to appreciate what we have, and how we stand on the shoulders of our ancestors. 

One of the memorable phrases from Exodus is when Moses says "Let my people go!"  For generations, people assumed he was talking to the Pharoh about his people's freedom. After a week of eating clogging matzoh, matzoh balls, and even fried matzoh ... for many Jews "Let my people go" takes on a different meaning.

Hope you celebrated with family, food, and a reverence for all the blessings around you. 

Photographing a Supermassive Black Hole: The Gravity of This Situation is Immeasurable

The Eye was rimmed with fire, but was itself glazed, yellow as a cat's, watchful and intent, and the black slit of its pupil opened on a pit, a window into nothing. - Frodo seeing Sauron through the Mirror of Galadriel in The Fellowship of the Ring

The Event Horizon Telescope just released the first-ever image of a black hole ... specifically a supermassive black hole with a mass 6.5 billion times heavier than our sun. This behemoth of a black hole is over 50 million light-years away in a galaxy we call M87. The little blob (in the picture below) is 25 billion miles across, and the bright part is brighter than all of the billions of other stars in that galaxy combined.  To put it in context ... the black hole, shown below, is larger than our entire Solar System. 

Here's a link to the original RAW (183 mb) image. 

 

via National Science Foundation

The image shows a bright ring formed as light bends in the intense gravity around a black hole that is 6.5 billion times more massive than the Sun

In my opinion, the black hole image is even more amazing when you zoom out and see the entire m87 galaxy. The little black dot inside the orange is the black hole.

 

via NASA/CXC/VILLANOVA UNIVERSITY/J. NEILSEN 

To take a step back, a black hole is a celestial object that has a gravitational field so strong that light cannot escape it and that is believed to be created especially in the collapse of a very massive star.  It warps spacetime and superheats all surrounding materials. 

“In space no one can hear you scream; and in a black hole, no one can see you disappear.” 
― Stephen Hawking

Before today, black holes had only been observed indirectly. We had math that "proved it."  Now, we have direct, observable, and corroborated evidence for everyone to see.

Do you understand the gravity of that? 

In my lifetime, Black holes have gone from a fringe theory to a possibility, to a probability, and now, to reality.  

It is amazing to think about how right Einstein's theory of general relativity was ... especially considering that he did the math in 1915, before we had the technology and science to back it up.  The basic idea is that the relative velocity of light doesn't change, therefore it must be a constant in our universe. Using his math, we were able to predict how a black hole would "look", and it was supported by the Event Horizon Telescope's image. 

Veritasium puts understanding the image into better perspective. Check it out. 

 

via Veritasium 

For a side note, the first proposal of black holes actually goes back to John Michell in 1784

"If there should really exist in nature any bodies, whose density is not less than that of the sun, and whose diameters are more than 500 times the diameter of the sun, since their light could not arrive at us; or if there should exist any other bodies of a somewhat smaller size, which are not naturally luminous; of the existence of bodies under either of these circumstances, we could have no information from sight; yet, if any other luminous bodies should happen to revolve about them we might still perhaps from the motions of these revolving bodies infer the existence of the central ones with some degree of probability, as this might afford a clue to some of the apparent irregularities of the revolving bodies, which would not be easily explicable on any other hypothesis; but as the consequences of such a supposition are very obvious, and the consideration of them somewhat beside my present purpose, I shall not prosecute them any further." 

It took a massive amount of work to produce the photos of the black hole shown in this post. The ingredients: 200 researchers, 20 years, over 9 petabytes of data, 8 telescopes, and immense vision. Oh yeah, I almost forgot, it also took the 104 years of research since Einstein's theory. 

Powerful stuff. 

For more:

• Here's a Reddit "Ask Us Anything" with the scientists from the Event Horizon Telescope 
• Here's a TED talk from Dr. Katie Bouman in 2017, about taking a photo of the black hole.  Katie went to MIT and led the creation of a new algorithm that helped produced today's image.
• Here are the six published papers by the EHT on today's achievement
• Here's another great video from the Perimeter Institute of Theoretical Physics on today's image 

Don't Miss The Forest For The Trees: Change Blindness

There are few certainties in life ... according to Benjamin Franklin:

"Our new Constitution is now established, and has an appearance that promises permanency; but in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes."

According to the ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus: 

"Change is the only constant in life" 

He's also quoted as saying "everything changes and nothing stands still."

Maybe he didn't pay his taxes. 

Change is a constant, yet, it's often hard to see the forest for the trees. 

It seems like just yesterday that my son, Zach, was making sand castles on the beach – or wearing silly t-shirts. Now, he's 26, the soft spot on his head has filled in enough to consider him an adult – and he is generally unrecognizable from that kid on the beach at the Jersey Shore. 

 

On a day-by-day basis, I rarely noticed the change. However, looking at old pictures makes it obvious that there was massive growth and progress. 

So, what did I notice?  Sometimes it was what a great kid, or how loving, he had been.  Other times, it was almost the opposite.  Or, perhaps, I noticed that he didn't eat vegetables, or that he drove with a heavy foot.  In any case, what I focused on is what my life seemed filled with, to me. And it was mostly about the moment.  The bigger picture was lost (or hidden) behind the small things that make up the fabric of our life (or at least our perception of our life).

It is human nature.  Survival of the fittest rewarded a focus on avoiding predators or other dangers ... as well as recognizing the opportunity to eat. 

Thousands of years later, fear and greed still drive more than we like to admit.  It is also a big part of the engine that drives our markets. 

It is all about perspective, isn't it? 

We are where we are. It doesn't really matter how or why we got there. We are here. And little-by-little we won't be here anymore.

If you are looking at the country or the economy, realize that it took years to get here. Simply changing a regime won't flip a switch.  Some changes happen in slow-motion. 

Or, perhaps from our perspective, some changes appear to happen in slow-motion ... but what others see as change, you see as symptoms of the root cause. 

From different vantage points, the rate of change can seem different.

 

The same can be said for changes in a person or changes in a business. It's easy to see the gap between where you are and where you'd like to be. Regardless, you will probably get there faster by building momentum and confidence by focusing on the improvements and progress you're making. If you change your perspective - you may realize you've made more progress than you thought. 

Tough times are great opportunities to discover character.  I'm often amazed at the innovation and insight that occurs at times like these!

Don't pay so much attention to what you think you have to do that you forget the reason you're doing it in the first place. 

Robocalls and Taxes: These Are A Few Of My Favorite Things

What're everyone's two favorite things? Paying taxes and receiving robocalls, obviously. 

Phone scammers used to just target the elderly or those with poor English skills, but today, they go after everyone. In fact, Americans received over 30 billion robocalls last year ... and it's only getting worse. Around half of those are "legal," but more and more are scams.

Those scams increase during tax season. 

Several of my friends have received calls from the "IRS" demanding immediate payment. That is a scam. The IRS has stated repeatedly, they will not call you asking for your credit card numbers over the phone, they will not threaten lawsuits, and they will not call you unless they've already tried reaching you by mail. 

According to the FTC, robocall complaints in March and April are 20% higher. They're the icing on the tax season cake. 

 

via allareacodes

 

If increased robocalls weren't enough, you can expect your refund to be 8% lower than last year. Though the average refund is still several thousand dollars, and my home state of Texas can expect the highest returns. 

 

via HowMuch

Texas tops the list (Everything IS bigger in Texas) with $3,206 as the average tax refund. Maine inhabitants bottom out the list with $2,336.

It's worth mentioning that these refunds represent federal figures, and don't take into account any refunds from your state government - meaning there's likely more money flowing back to taxpayers than this map illustrates. 

What many people don’t understand is that the size of your tax refund isn’t solely based on tax cuts or raises.

Getting a refund feels like a win, but it represents an interest-free loan to the government for the last year. In an ideal world, you'd have a refund of $0 - meaning you paid exactly what you were supposed to.

Don't forget to file your taxes (Monday, April 15th is the deadline to file without an extension) and if you want to protect yourself from robocallers, here are some tips: 

• Don't answer calls from unknown phone numbers - let them go to voicemail and call back if necessary
• If you do accidentally answer a spam call, don't press any buttons or speak, as that simply alerts them that they've reached a working phone number
• Don't call a scammer back, and don't engage with them ... it's like talking with cops, Anything you say can and will be used against you 
• To decrease legal calls sign up for the federal and state do not call lists
• Check out CTIA's tip sheet on How to Stop Robocalls to see a list of apps available to prevent robocalls on your mobile OS

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - April 7th, 2019

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Scientists Plead to Stop Creation of Killer Robots: We're at 'The Brink of a New Arms Race'. (FoxNews)
• Moratorium on Human Genome Editing: Time to Get It Right. (HastingsCenter)
• 'Those Who Obeyed the Rules Were Favored by Evolution'.(Spiegel)
• Meet the World's Oldest Confirmed Person, 116-Year-Old Kane Tanaka. (TwistedSifter)
• Why Democrats Want to Abolish the Electoral College and Republicans Want to Keep It. (Fortune)

Trading Links:

• Why Companies that Wait to Adopt AI May Never Catch Up.(HBR)
• Iranian Hackers Have Hit Hundreds of Companies in past Two Years. (Wall Street Journal)
• What is an Inverted Yield Curve and What Does It Really Mean? (TheStreet)
• S&P 500 Posts Best First Quarter in 21 Years. (FoxBusiness)
• Bill Gates is Back in the $100 Billion Club, and Not All Thanks to Microsoft. (CNW)

 

 

Believe Nothing and Trust No One ... April Fools!

April Fools is a good chance for some much-needed levity, but it's also an opportunity for tone-deaf companies to try and resonate with their younger clientele. You get some fantastic pranks and funny jokes, but you also get some cringe. 

 

 

via Google

The Good

• Google claimed to have a physical screen cleaner feature on their phones that would also create a long-lasting non-stick shield.  
• Spotify replaced Discover Weekly playlists with Discocover Weekly playlists, including actual disco cover songs from artists you listen to. 

The Bad

• Logitech said it was rebranding its wireless mice as "hamsters" since they don't have tails. 
• U.K. Based Libert Games created a "Trump V Kim Nuclear Foosball Table" which comes with latex masks of Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un  so you can truly embody the roleplay. 

The Ugly 

• HyperX and Nissin Cup Noodles combined to create a pair of headphones with Cup Noodles as the earpads and a fork instead of a microphone ... so you can slurp your noodles while gaming. Efficiency at it's finest. 
• Elon Musk released an auto-tuned rap song called "RIP Harambe" about the Cincinatti Zoo Gorilla who was unceremoniously killed in 2016

 

Yet, some of the best April Fools pranks came ages ago: 

 

The Best of All Time

• In 1957, the BBC ran a segment on the Swiss growing pasta on trees. The story was on television, and back then, the television wouldn't lie to you ... right?!
• In 1974, a local Sitka, Alaska prankster Oliver Bickar flew 70 old tires into Mt. Edgecumbe - a volcano that had been dormant for 400 years -  and set them on fire. It was such a good prank that the Associated Press ran with it, Alaska Airlines used it in ads, and the admiral of the Coast Gaurd called the prank a "classic."
• In 1996, Taco Bell announced it had purchased the Liberty Bell and named it the "Taco Liberty Bell" in an effort to help the national debt. 

 

What's the best prank you've played?  Here's mine.

Sardines in a Tincan Hurtling Through The Air

I fly a lot.

In fact, I just hit five million "butt-in-seat" miles on American Airlines. 

 

 

I don't expect to continue at this place forever ... but now is the time to push.

I have a different workflow when I travel, and it works for me.

Ultimately, I believe that good things happen when you are in motion! 

Many people, however, are focused on the hassle.

The practical realities of travel mean I spend some time thinking about the things airlines do well or poorly.  Nonetheless, I appreciate the benefits more than the frustrations.

Yes, it is true ... Status means much less today than it used to.  Every week it feels like they make the space between seats smaller while the time for finding overhead luggage space gets shorter. 

Yet, the planes themselves are getting better.  Here, for example, is what an empty 787 looks like. 

 

 

It looks more like a set from Star Trek then the hellscape passengers complain about on a regular basis. 

What about the boarding process? 

Here is a video that presents the findings from studies on experimental boarding methods that work better. 

 

via CGP Grey

If you really don't like commercial flying, you can fly on any of the "economical" private options like JetSmarter or WheelsUp. Or, better yet, you could be like this guy and buy the world's only private Boeing 787 Dreamliner. 

 

via Sam Chui

You can rent it out for a measly $70k an hour ... What a bargain!