Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - April 26th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Harvard Professor Wants to Ban Homeschooling Because It's Authoritarian'. (NYPost)
• Amazon Asks Workers to Request Leave If They Continue Staying at Home. (EnGadget)
• You Can Now Download the Government's Controversial Contact Tracing App. (Timeout)
• A Startup is Pitching a Mind-Uploading Service that is 100 Percent Fatal. (TechReview)
• Burning Man is Going Virtual, and So are the Orgies. (Vice)

 

Trading Links:

• This Pandemic is Over. Let's Stop the Economic Suicide, and Get Back to Work. (RealClearMarkets)
• Negative Oil Prices Were a Warning, Not an Anomaly. (Bloomberg)
• Ken Fisher on Nixing the VIX. (RCM)
• Hedge Funds are on Defense and Testing the Stamina of a $5 Trillion Stock Rally. (Bloomberg)
• Who's On Top in the S&P 500 Before and After the Coronavirus?(SeekingAlpha)

The Show Must Go On (But In VR)

Several states are conditionally reopening. 

As they reopen, it's important to think about a new normal. I'm excited about what we'll accomplish on the backside of this pandemic. 

It challenged what we do and how we do it.  In many ways, the thing that doesn't kill you makes you stronger.

With that said, I saw this video, and it struck a chord. It shows a famous orchestra playing the theme to 2001: A Space Odyssey updated for 2020's social distancing. You’ve got classical music played by classical musicians – together, but only via technology.  This new form borrows from the past but creates something new.  As a result, we experience a new dawn.

via Opera North

I encourage you to think about what the Quarantine made better for you, your family, your business, the country, or the world?

 Sure, there are things that suck ... but there are things that surprised! 

Think about the things that you did more of during this period.  Are there new things that will make sense to continue as we move back to normal?  Are there things that you did less of – and it somehow made things better (or made room for better things)?

How can you combine the best of the old with the best of the new to create something even better?

Things are going back to normal ... but you get to decide your new normal ... and it can be better than your past.

Stay safe and enjoy the ride,

Killing Time: COVID-19 and Media Consumption

For most, being quarantined means significantly more screen-time.

Whether you're using it productively or unproductively, you're likely consuming much more media than before. 

That can be a double-edged sword. It has the potential to increase your understanding of events – but also increases the likelihood of echo chambers and the intake of misinformation (aka fake news). 

So, in this quarantine, what exactly are people looking at, and how are they staying informed?

VisualCapitalist put together various infographics on how different generations are consuming content.

via visualcapitalist

Unsurprisingly, younger generations are playing games, and millennials are focusing on food (cooking recipes and staying healthy while quarantined).  Meanwhile, the older generations are still sticking primarily to broadcast TV. 

(To View Other Generations Click Here) via visualcapitalist

Regardless of where you're consuming, it's important to manage what you're consuming, and how much you're consuming. You need to make sure you're using reliable resources and managing your time and energy. Too much can leave you worse off. 

Sometimes, less is more.

 

Some Much Needed Coronavirus Levity

 People are going a little stir crazy – and tensions are running a little bit higher than normal. 

I saw this video and I chuckled (although the agitated in me recognized the agited in him ... Namaste).

 

For some much-needed levity, here's a cover of Adele's "Hello (From The Outside)" called "Hello (From The Inside)". 

 

via Chris Mann

If you want more COVID music: 

• Ballad of A Hand - Jon Lajoie
• Coronavirus Rhapsody - Adrian Grimes
• My Corona - ZDoggMD

Hope you enjoyed. Stay safe (and try to stay sane). 

The Age of AI: How Far Is Too Far?

Let's take a break from talking about the Coronavirus to talk about something else that will affect the global population. 

Of course, it's the pace of innovation and the effects of AI. I've been on the record for years saying things like

• AI will transform the planet much like electricity did
• Data will be more valuable than oil 
• And, the only thing more impressive than our population growth is our technology growth 
• Or, from the precautionary side, Artificial intelligence isn't a substitute for lack of the real thing

It can be difficult to have a nuanced discussion around AI online. There's a lot of PopSci around it, people conflate a very diverse range of algorithms and intentions into the general "AI", and realistically when you get too in-depth into what algorithms are best for what problems, most people lose interest. 

That's why I'm personally a proponent of any discussions around AI. Awareness is important, and if more people can understand the basics, then some subset of them will become better educated... rinse and repeat. 

Robert Downey Jr. and YouTube partnered for an 8-part docuseries on the Age of AI. I've only watched one episode, but that episode did a decent job of addressing the highest-level issues with AI. 

 

via YouTube Originals

I won't go through the whole video with you - because  you're quarantined and I think it's worth watching, but there are a couple of points I wanted to re-emphasize. 

Your Data Is Becoming More Important, Not Less Important

"Everyone's concerned about identity theft. Meanwhile, they're giving all their data for free on the internet. I'm what I like. I'm what I don't like. I'm where I go, I'm who I know. I'm what I search. I'm my thumbprint. I am my data" - will.i.am

My son, Zach, has ultimately given up on privacy - his argument is that everyone's information is out there anyway. Even my eldest son, Ben, who is a cybersecurity expert, has semi-resigned himself to his data being out there. He takes many precautionary measures but recognizes that he's not truly anonymous. 

In the video, Will.I.Am is getting an authentic reproduction of his face, mannerisms, and voice - they even got the pimple he had during the day of filming. In doing so, he specifically asks for the voice to be a bit robotic. He does this "for his mom" but in reality, it's to make clear - this is a robot, not me. It's avoiding the Uncanny Valley. 

We're at an intersection where it's going to become harder to decide what's real and what's fake. With deepfake video and audio, protecting your personal brand and identity becomes difficult, and simultaneously more important. 

The Path Forward

The road to AI supremacy is long and fraught with booby traps, potential missteps, and ethical issues. Questions like "how far is too far?" will have to be answered, and countries will likely strive to unite around shared rules of ethical AI. 

If there's anything that makes me confident about our ability to successfully travel that road, it's looking at humanity's ability to adapt. The reality is, we've been working symbiotically with "machines" since the very beginning, but our definition of the machine simply continues to improve. It's fractal, and each time the technology we're adopting gets bigger, so does the eventual positive effect on day to day life. 

AI adoption is a big step, but the positive effect it can have on our lives is astronomical. 

Onwards!

Here's to Rebirth and Spring Cleaning

Happy Holidays!  I hope you had a great weekend.

For Christians, today is Easter Sunday - the holiday celebrating the Resurrection. 

For Jews, it's still  Passover - the holiday recounting the Exodus from Egypt. 

The overlap can be seen in DaVinci's Last Supper, a Passover Seder, and last meal Jesus ate before his crucifixion.  

For both, it's a holy and family-centric time. A reminder to appreciate what we have, and how we stand on the shoulders of our ancestors. 

One of the memorable phrases from Exodus is when Moses says "Let my people go!"  For generations, people assumed he was talking to the Pharoh about his people's freedom. After a week of eating clogging matzoh, matzoh balls, and even fried matzoh ... for many Jews "Let my people go" takes on a different meaning.

For Jews, a notable part of the ritual Seder dinner is naming each of the 10 plagues that rained over Egypt and saying "never again".

Perhaps, this year, COVID-19 gets added the list? 

Yet, just like the Jews making it through slavery, the plagues, and 40 years wandering through the wilderness and desert before entering the Promised Land ... we too will make it through this. 

With that said, some of what happened is good.  Mine your experience for the things you want to keep doing (or continue not doing) once things go back to "normal".  In addition, some of those close to me continue to remind me that being sheltered-in-place is a great excuse to do both a physical and mental spring cleaning. 

Hope you had a great weekend. 

Onwards!

What Can My Dogs Teach Us About Trading?

I wrote this back in 2008. With minor updates, it seems relevant again.

Some dogs run fast; other dogs do tricks … my 100-pound lab, Duke's best talent was his ability to remain immobile in almost any situation (some call it "laziness" … I prefer "calm" or being "even-tempered").

At the other end of the spectrum are our two small dogs, Boo and Jasper. Boo, our 20-pound mix between a Beagle and a Boston terrier. Let's just say that he has a higher metabolism than Duke. 

When Boo hears a noise, he lets out an involuntary, barely audible, sound.  His body becomes rigid and his head cocks.  He becomes alert and carefully tunes his ears to their most sensitive setting, seeking any information that will help identify the "danger." He's now primed for the next intrusion.

Usually, there are no other disturbances to follow, and the noise is cataloged and soon forgotten. His alertness level slowly subsides over the next 10-15 minutes or so.  He'll go back to napping, a little more fitfully this time … and just a little bit on edge.

Things get a little more interesting when another noise surfaces shortly after the first one.  What could once be dismissed now must be treated as a threat – and just to be safe, a threat of the highest order.  Now the appropriate response is a series of barks, nervous glances, pacing, rushing off in the direction of the noise to investigate, and a barrage of barks meant to sound more menacing than the source of the noise.  Who or what is it? How much harm can they cause? How grave is the threat?

Jasper, our high-anxiety mutt, is never off alert. He doesn't know what's a threat, and what's not, so he's always creating threats out of nothing and riling up our other dogs. 

Duke is a different story.  Nothing upsets Duke more than Boo or Jasper getting on high alert.  The same noise that prompted Jasper and Boo to become alert does nothing to Duke.  However, the first time that they make noise,  Duke becomes alert. The second time they make noise, Duke starts vocalizing; and the third time, all 4 of our dogs start yapping. Once they start yapping, then the neighbor's dogs start yapping, and suddenly our neighborhood is a cacophony of dog barks.

The same thing happens in the market with people.

In the market, it is the second noise - and subsequent noises - that creates the equivalent of the Homeland Security "Red Alert." Once an elevated level of alertness has been established, it takes a long period of relative calm for it to subside.  And when on "Red Alert" … any additional noises (for example, the responses of the other market participants) - big or small - will highlight, magnify, and further validate the issue.

But, like in the story "The Boy Who Cried Wolf," even legitimate threats are ignored after too many false alarms (or prolonged periods of constant alert).  So, bad news about the economy isn't as likely to get people excited after the past few weeks.

As people (or bots) become "used" to today's new normal, It'll be interesting to see what sprouts up. The longer away from the initial episode, the more real the effect can be attributed. 

The unfortunate reality is that the Boo and Jasper style "overreaction" to a crisis can exacerbate the long-term effects of the crisis. To balance that, on the macro level, a stronger pandemic response has been shown to increase economic recovery.

This has been the theme from the beginning. Don't personally panic, but respond aggressively on the city, state, and national level. 

Food for thought. 

Building Your New Normal

Last week, I introduced the idea of a new normal. 

As a small business owner, in the midst of this pandemic, I'm not thinking about what's necessary to continue doing what I was doing yesterday. I'm focused on what I can do to prepare for tomorrow. Things won't go back to the way they were, but they will go back to normal. Only, it will be a new normal. It's a good lesson in being attached to a result, not a medium for a result. 

The "new normal" is a topic that has been coming up in a lot of different places, because of the situation in which we all find ourselves. 

These Are Not Unprecedented Times

I've heard a lot of people use the phrase "these are unprecedented times" but they're not. Ignoring how many different industry-disrupting era's we've had (think the Dot Com Bubble), we've also had numerous pandemics, and we're better prepared to handle them today than at any other time in history.  

Here is a short video from Simon Sinek that I thought was relevant, well-done, and inspiring. I encourage you to watch it.

 

via Simon Sinek

What Comes Next?

"I'm not worried about what I do, I'm worried about why I do it." - Simon Sinek

After some time, things will go back to "normal." Your goal for today should be to sow the seeds to today that prepare you for that day. I'll backtrack a step and acknowledge, if you're struggling to survive, survival comes first. Regardless, you need to make sure you're asking yourself the right questions.

When you ask better questions, you get better answers. 

What will you need when it's back to business as usual? How can you help others better themselves through this period? Who can you help?

If the theme for right now is building a new normal, one of my life's themes is the belief in moonshots and exponential thinking. 

Your response to this pandemic should be the same as your response to disruptive innovation. 

You should be attracted to a result, not a medium, and paying attention to how you can capitalize on the wave. 

Blockbuster, RadioShack, Kodak, all went out of business due to shortsighted myopia in the face of change. 

Opportunity or Chaos ... You get to decide!

Onward!

Unpacking The Coronavirus Relief Package (CARES Act)

How much Coronavirus information can everyone take?

Everywhere I look, the current crisis seems to be affecting everything.

It has certainly impacted what we post – here are two recent examples:  

• 7 Best Practice For Uncertain Times
• The Anxiety Antidote: Scary Times Success Manual

 

via Twitter

Meanwhile, I am beginning to think about how we are going back to business as usual. 

Just last week, 3.3 million applied for unemployment and companies have been freaking out. If my own social network is any indication, most people are finally taking it seriously and isolating. If you take my son's social network as any indication, some are still partying on beaches and boats without a care in the world.  As a reminder, flattening the infection curve greatly impacts our ability to treat COVID-19. 

I am by no means an expert, but I know many of you are curious about the Coronavirus relief package that passed the Senate on Wednesday, and the House on Friday. It's the third package from Congress so far. Based on your background and your personal beliefs, you'll likely have varying opinions on the package, but overall, I believe this is at least a "passable" effort for most audiences. And (watching the struggle to reignite the stock market) it is likely very much needed. 

As a final note, the goal is not to "fix" the Stock Market, or stimulate the economy (exactly), it's to rescue the economy. It's a relief package. The goal is to prevent the collapse of the economy due to stagnation and unemployment. 

So what does the CARES ACT package entail for you:

• Self-employed people (that includes artists, musicians, and solopreneurs)  are now able to apply for unemployment benefits up to their full salary. Unemployment is receiving a $260 billion stimulus. 
• Small businesses will have enhanced access to federal loan dollars to help keep people on the payroll. If no one is laid off, the loans will be forgiven. If you're looking for capital to cover retaining employees, that's called the Paycheck Protection Program. There is also the Emergency Economic Injury Grant and Small Business Debt Relief Program.
• There are many industry-specific bailouts, including for airlines and more to prevent them from failing
• President Trump and Congress members are forbidden from using funds from this package to save their businesses. 
• Most adults can expect a one-time payment of $1200 and each child can expect $500. Single-filers above $75K will receive a reduced amount, and single-filers above $99K can't expect anything. If you don't have a social security number, you can't receive a payment. 
• Joint-filers above $150K can expect reduced payments, and joint-filers above $198K can expect nothing
• You have until July 15th to fill out your tax returns

SevenandForty via r/DataIsBeautiful 

There's a lot involved with the package that I didn't cover, but I covered most of what influences the average person. Big corporations, hospitals, and public health, and many government programs also receive various levels of benefits. 

For a comprehensive look at the bill, NPR did a very good write-up. You can read it here. Verne Harnish and Scaling Up did a good write-up as well. You can read it here. 

As a small business owner, in the midst of this pandemic, I'm not thinking about what's necessary to continue doing what I was doing yesterday. I'm focused on what I can do to prepare for tomorrow. Things won't go back to the way they were, but they will go back to normal. Only, it will be a new normal. It's a good lesson in being attached to a result, not a medium for a result. 

Hope this helped.  

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - March 29th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How the Pandemic Will End. (The Atlantic)
• A New Way to Explain Explanation. (TED)
• 20 New Technology Trends We Will See in the 2020s. (ScienceFocus)
• Smile? Results from the 2020 World Happiness Report are In. (New York Times)
• Warren Buffett's Brilliant 25/5 Rule Was Fake. Here's What He Really Said about Achieving Success. (Inc)

 

Trading Links:

• Disneyland and Disney World Will Remain Closed Indefinitely. (CNet)
• The Dow Just Had Its Best Week since 1938. It's Time to Go Shopping for Beaten-Up Stocks.(Barrons)
• Dollar Falls during Coronavirus Pandemic, Biggest Weekly Drop since 2009. (FoxBusiness)
• Understanding the Economic Shock of Coronavirus. (HBR)
• Paul Tudor Jones Says Stocks Could Retest Lows as Virus Peaks but Will Be Higher in 3 to 5 Months.(HedgeCo)